UK inflation falls to lowest level since late 2021 as food prices ease further

[Social Media]

 

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal a notable decline in inflation in the United Kingdom, reaching its lowest level in two and a half years by March 2023. The drop, primarily driven by a further easing in food prices, saw consumer prices rise by 3.2% year-on-year, down from 3.4% in February. Though the decrease wasn't as substantial as economists had forecasted, it marks a positive trend since September 2021.

 

Despite inflation still exceeding the Bank of England's target of 2%, the trajectory suggests a promising direction. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which triggered significant increases in energy costs and pushed inflation above 11% at the end of 2022, the recent decline offers a semblance of stability. Notably, the UK's inflation rate has now dipped below that of the United States for the first time in two years, with the US recording a higher inflation rate of 3.5% in March.

 

Looking ahead, economists anticipate a further drop in inflation in April, potentially falling below the 2% threshold. This projection stems from expectations of markedly lower domestic energy bills. Consequently, there is speculation that the Bank of England might contemplate reducing interest rates from the current 16-year high of 5.25%. However, policymakers remain cautious, foreseeing a resurgence in prices in the latter part of the year.

 

Simon Pittaway, a senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, anticipates a return to target inflation soon, suggesting mounting pressure for interest rate cuts. The Bank of England, like its counterparts globally, raised interest rates aggressively in late 2021 to counteract inflationary pressures exacerbated by supply chain disruptions during the pandemic and the geopolitical turmoil following Russia's actions in Ukraine. These rate hikes, aimed at cooling the economy by increasing borrowing costs, have contributed to a global downturn in inflation.

 

Against this backdrop, the UK's Conservative Party is hopeful that declining inflation and potential interest rate reductions may foster a positive sentiment among voters ahead of the upcoming general election. With opinion polls indicating a significant lead for the opposition Labour Party, the Conservatives, in power since 2010, are seeking to leverage economic improvements to bolster their electoral prospects. However, the outcome of the election, slated to take place by January 2025, remains uncertain amidst ongoing economic and political dynamics.

 

18.04.24

Source

 

[Tug]

That’s wonderful news I hope it continues it’s downward trend!!

[JonnyF]

Good to see the UK continuing to do well post Brexit.

 

Unfortunately a Labour government looks just around the corner so their "tax and spend" policies will likely undo a lot of the good work. 

[Chomper Higgot]

10 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Good to see the UK continuing to do well post Brexit.

 

Unfortunately a Labour government looks just around the corner so their "tax and spend" policies will likely undo a lot of the good work. 

Off thing to say given the stagnated economy, prices still above the target 2% and the current Government having enacted the highest tax take since WW2.

 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/article-12781839/amp/Tax-burden-highest-Second-World-War-44-billion-stealth-tax.html

[RuamRudy]

Good news for Sunak on a day that he lost another MP. And this one's a scorcher!

 

Revealed: Tory MP allegedly demanded campaign cash to pay ‘bad people’

 

"Mark Menzies, the Conservative MP for Fylde and a government trade envoy, rang an elderly local party volunteer at 3.15am in December saying he was locked in a flat and needed £5,000 as a matter of “life and death”. The sum, which rose to £6,500, was paid by his office manager from her personal bank account and subsequently reimbursed from campaign funds raised from donors."

 

 

[transam]

3 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Good news for Sunak on a day that he lost another MP. And this one's a scorcher!

 

Revealed: Tory MP allegedly demanded campaign cash to pay ‘bad people’

 

"Mark Menzies, the Conservative MP for Fylde and a government trade envoy, rang an elderly local party volunteer at 3.15am in December saying he was locked in a flat and needed £5,000 as a matter of “life and death”. The sum, which rose to £6,500, was paid by his office manager from her personal bank account and subsequently reimbursed from campaign funds raised from donors."

 

 

As your SNP loses voters by the thousand, oh dear, RR...........😥

[Will B Good]

UK interest rate cut hopes fade after inflation falls by less than expected.......how the markets view this amazing news.

[JonnyF]

4 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Off thing to say given the stagnated economy, prices still above the target 2% and the current Government having enacted the highest tax take since WW2.

 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/article-12781839/amp/Tax-burden-highest-Second-World-War-44-billion-stealth-tax.html

 

That article is a prediction. Lots of "will be", "on course to be", "experts have predicted" etc.

 

Better we stick with the facts on what has happened, as detailed in the OP. The UK doing very well compared to some of the EU's largest economies, like Germany and France.

 

https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/04/16/germanys-economy-still-seen-to-be-suffering-the-most-in-europe

 

 

France and Germany's economies are the worst-performing in Europe, while the UK is seen as doing moderately well. On the up side, Spain and Italy are seeing distinctly more positive signs.

 

Seems like Project Fear was a load of rubbish. If only someone had said so at the time... Oh, wait a minute...😃

[Chomper Higgot]

2 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

That article is a prediction. Lots of "will be", "on course to be", "experts have predicted" etc.

 

Better we stick with the facts on what has happened, as detailed in the OP. The UK doing very well compared to some of the EU's largest economies, like Germany and France.

 

https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/04/16/germanys-economy-still-seen-to-be-suffering-the-most-in-europe

 

 

Seems like Project Fear was a load of rubbish. If only someone had said so at the time... Oh, wait a minute...😃

The article is based on the taxation already in the process of being applied.

 

It’s an assessment of those tax increases.

 

 

[transam]

3 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Off thing to say given the stagnated economy, prices still above the target 2% and the current Government having enacted the highest tax take since WW2.

 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/article-12781839/amp/Tax-burden-highest-Second-World-War-44-billion-stealth-tax.html

I think you are disappointed the UK is doing well, even better than some other EU countries...

But don't worry, you will find something else UK related to lambast......😂

[Summerinsiam]

It is very telling that even its most ardent supporters are unable to name one thing that has improved since Brexit, even the ideoloically driven idiots that were responsible for it.

[Chomper Higgot]

2 minutes ago, transam said:

I think you are disappointed the UK is doing well, even better than some other EU countries...

But don't worry, you will find something else UK related to lambast......😂

I think I’m pointing out the obvious flaw in criticism of Labour on taxes and spending when the UK tax burden under the current government is the highest since WW2.

[Chomper Higgot]

2 minutes ago, Summerinsiam said:

It is very telling that even its most ardent supporters are unable to name one thing that has improved since Brexit, even the ideoloically driven idiots that were responsible for it.

No trouble finding things that have gotten worse:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/apr/18/drug-shortages-normal-in-uk-made-worse-by-brexit-report-warns

[transam]

12 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I think I’m pointing out the obvious flaw in criticism of Labour on taxes and spending when the UK tax burden under the current government is the highest since WW2.

Don't worry about that, if your lot get in you will have plenty to talk about, oh, I mean not talk about and disappear.......😂

[soi3eddie]

I arrived back in "The Land of NO Smiles" a few days ago. Nobody, in real life here believes inflation is down. Nothing but price rises everywhere from utilities to food to fuel prices. Anyone who thinks that interest rates are coming down (more than a token .25%) is deluded. More pain to come I'm afraid and with that the s.h.i.t.e shows of London mayoral elections in a few weeks and a UK general election before December. Add in geopolitical events and conflicts and the US elections then it's going to be a rough year. Good luck everyone!

 

[youreavinalaff]

3 minutes ago, soi3eddie said:

I arrived back in "The Land of NO Smiles" a few days ago. Nobody, in real life here believes inflation is down. Nothing but price rises everywhere from utilities to food to fuel prices. Anyone who thinks that interest rates are coming down (more than a token .25%) is deluded. More pain to come I'm afraid and with that the s.h.i.t.e shows of London mayoral elections in a few weeks and a UK general election before December. Add in geopolitical events and conflicts and the US elections then it's going to be a rough year. Good luck everyone!

 

Indeed they are deluded.

 

Lots of food prices have fallen, utilities prices have fallen and fuel prices are 60p a litre down on 2 years ago.

 

Interest rates are not high. They are below average.

[Chomper Higgot]

2 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

Indeed they are deluded.

 

Lots of food prices have fallen, utilities prices have fallen and fuel prices are 60p a litre down on 2 years ago.

 

Interest rates are not high. They are below average.

And the ONS is telling porkies?

 

[youreavinalaff]

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

And the ONS is telling porkies?

 

I don't recall quoting ONS.

 

[Chomper Higgot]

4 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

I don't recall quoting ONS.

 

No you just posted in a thread discussing the ONS data on UK inflation.

 

Doh!

[candide]

56 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

That article is a prediction. Lots of "will be", "on course to be", "experts have predicted" etc.

 

Better we stick with the facts on what has happened, as detailed in the OP. The UK doing very well compared to some of the EU's largest economies, like Germany and France.

 

https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/04/16/germanys-economy-still-seen-to-be-suffering-the-most-in-europe

 

 

France and Germany's economies are the worst-performing in Europe, while the UK is seen as doing moderately well. On the up side, Spain and Italy are seeing distinctly more positive signs.

 

Seems like Project Fear was a load of rubbish. If only someone had said so at the time... Oh, wait a minute...😃

It depends which indicator is used. I don't know how 2024 will turn out to be, but in 2023, as concerns GDP growth, UK did not fare better than Germany and worse than France.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

 

Edit: and inflation is much lower..

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02794/

Edited April 18 by candide

[JonnyF]

10 minutes ago, candide said:

It depends which indicator is used. I don't know how 2024 will turn out to be, but in 2023, as concerns GDP growth, UK did not fare better than Germany and worse than France.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

 

How is the UK not doing better than Germany?

 

 

The fact is, only 4 years since Brexit there has been no "cliffedge" and the UK economy is outperforming the EU's largest economy, Germany.

 

I'm just pointing out that Project Fear was a pack of lies. I said at the time it was, and now I have the figures to back it up. So yes, we did know what we were voting for. Could have been even better without Theresa May, but the losers/traitors were always going to make it difficult. 

[candide]

2 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

How is the UK not doing better than Germany?

 

 

The fact is, only 4 years since Brexit there has been no "cliffedge" and the UK economy is outperforming the EU's largest economy, Germany.

 

I'm just pointing out that Project Fear was a pack of lies. I said at the time it was, and now I have the figures to back it up. So yes, we did know what we were voting for. Could have been even better without Theresa May, but the losers/traitors were always going to make it difficult. 

You obviously don't know how to read the table. Q4 2023, in this part of the table, is the yearly growth (% change on a year ago). The quarterly growth is in the first part of the table.

What about France?

[youreavinalaff]

30 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

No you just posted in a thread discussing the ONS data on UK inflation.

 

Doh!

No. I quoted a comment that said " nothing but price increase". 

 

I pointed out that is incorrect as some prices have decreased. That, I believe, is inline with recent data.

Edited April 18 by youreavinalaff

[JonnyF]

15 minutes ago, candide said:

You obviously don't know how to read the table. Q4 2023, in this part of the table, is the yearly growth (% change on a year ago). The quarterly growth is in the first part of the table.

What about France?

 

 

 

0.1% growth (UK) is better than 0.3% shrinking (Germany) for 2023 as a whole. 

[candide]

27 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

 

 

0.1% growth (UK) is better than 0.3% shrinking (Germany) for 2023 as a whole. 

Ok. My mistake.

 

So UK +0.4% compared to the sick man of Europe Germany and -0.8% compared to France (+0,9%) (the other country you mentioned), in 2023.

https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-surveillance-eu-economies/france/economic-forecast-france_en

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

 

How is the UK not doing better than Germany?

 

 

The fact is, only 4 years since Brexit there has been no "cliffedge" and the UK economy is outperforming the EU's largest economy, Germany.

 

I'm just pointing out that Project Fear was a pack of lies. I said at the time it was, and now I have the figures to back it up. So yes, we did know what we were voting for. Could have been even better without Theresa May, but the losers/traitors were always going to make it difficult. 

The fact is that the impacts of Brexit have been eased by the IK enacting Brexit in drip feed.

 

By example, import controls will only come into effect this autumn.

 

So yes, 4 years since Brexit paperwork signed and yet Brexit is not yet fully implemented.

 

 

[transam]

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The fact is that the impacts of Brexit have been eased by the IK enacting Brexit in drip feed.

 

By example, import controls will only come into effect this autumn.

 

So yes, 4 years since Brexit paperwork signed and yet Brexit is not yet fully implemented.

 

 

Back on topic, please..................🤣

[JonnyF]

3 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

Good news for Sunak on a day that he lost another MP. And this one's a scorcher!

 

Losing an MP? I guess everything is relative but it is hardly a disaster, especially when compared to your boy who is getting absolutely slaughtered at the polls and whose brother in law is being done for throwing someone off the top of a block of flats. 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/14/imploding-snp-faces-electoral-disaster-scotland/

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, youreavinalaff said:

No. I quoted a comment that said " nothing but price increase". 

 

I pointed out that is incorrect as some prices have decreased. That, I believe, is inline with recent data.

Right, so some prices have fallen.

 

Recent data is inflation is still above the BOE target of 2% 

 

And those price decreases of yours.

 

Over what period are you measuring the price?

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

6 minutes ago, transam said:

Back on topic, please..................🤣

I think you’ll find I was responding to Jonny’s post.

 

But I do understand it’s a subject you might find uncomfortable to discuss.