Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[kwonitoy]

 

[thaibeachlovers]

6 hours ago, kwonitoy said:

 

 

Reddit is free, you don't have to sign up to use it, and it's a whole lot less toxic than twitter

 Expand your horizons

Fair enough, but I spend far too much of my life on here as it is and I don't want to add yet another time waster to my day.

It's not like when I was living in Chiang Mai and had nothing else to do.

I had been thinking of joining it to participate in the anime forum which is what I am really interested in, but didn't for the reason already given. Perhaps when I have disposed of the more pressing demands on my time I may have more free time, but by then Ukraine will be over, though no doubt the MIC will have discovered another profitable war for us to comment on.

[thaibeachlovers]

37 minutes ago, kwonitoy said:

 

For every attack on Russia expect large and getting larger responses going the other way. Tit for Tat is not a happy game for those getting blown up.

[Gweiloman]

14 hours ago, coolcarer said:

Bang on………..shame on the apologists and doubters

 

Ukrainians want this war to end more than anyone else in the world. But definitely not through the destruction of our nation, our culture, our cities.

Russian aggression gives us no choice but to fight and defend our very existence. I thank everyone who helps and works tirelessly for Ukraine, so we can achieve our goals as soon as possible.

 

Seems to me that the Ukrainian leadership and its advisors are none too smart. Everyone knows that the best way to peace is via negotiations but the Ukrainians passed a law banning peace talks with one of the most powerful men in the world and the major protagonist in this conflict thus effectively ensuring the destruction of the country. Retracting this law would be a major slap in the face for Ukraine, a major embarrassment and a desperate sign of weakness so they are well and truly up the creek without a paddle.

 

The Kursk PR stunt that had no strategic value has backfired completely and served only to hasten Russian advances along the main battlefront in the Donbass region. A main government reshuffle in the middle of an ongoing conflict merely points to more and more desperation.

 

Ukkraine is likely to cease to exist, thanks to the machinations of the west. Losing Crimea in 2014 due to a western directed coup, all for the sake of some cookies, they had a chance to keep most of their territory until Bojo came along and caused them to lose the 4 eastern oblasts. They had another chance to still keep most of their territory (excepting these 4 oblasts) but it’s looking more likely that Odessa, Sumy will eventually be lost as well.

 

Kissinger’s words ring true once again.

[Gweiloman]

13 hours ago, coolcarer said:

No silly. That would be Putin thinking he could take Kiev in a few days and the rest of Ukraine in a couple of weeks. 2and  half year later and?

Ah, yes. That much mistaken often quoted non statement by Putin when it was in fact a view expressed by Milley. I’m not a military person but even I know that it would be impossible to take over a country the size of Ukraine with just a coupe of hundred thousand troops. And yet, western misinformation is so powerful that even supposedly intelligent people swallow it.

 

One of Putin’s stated objectives is the de-militarisation of Ukraine. What better way then to destroy its army and weapons, one by one, piece by piece. As another poster confirmed in an above post, the UAF now consists of soldiers of different nationalities, highlighting the lack of Ukrainians able and willing to fight. It is also solely dependent on weapons and ammunition supplied by other countries, not having the capability of producing its own.

 

In the meantime, the Russian economy continues to grow much faster than any G7 country, spurred on in part by increased military production and increased sales of natural gas to Europe. Putin probably can’t believe his luck that western leaders are so bereft of intelligence and so impotent.

[Gweiloman]

22 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

most western msm nowadays is nothing more than western mouthpieces, just repeating western propaganda.

 

You quoted it when it suits you though as proved earlier. Nothing hypocritical about that at all.......😒

Just pointing out that even western propaganda cannot hide the truth forever.

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Just pointing out that even western propaganda cannot hide the truth forever.

Your confused, its Russian media doing that.

 

Russia is cracking down on alternative sources of information, especially online, and is pushing citizens away from foreign-based social media apps.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/08/russia-youtube-google-ukraine/

https://archive.ph/SKvJj

[Social Media]

An inflamatory troll post has been removed along with an off topic post @frank83628

[Gweiloman]

57 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Your confused, its Russian media doing that.

 

Russia is cracking down on alternative sources of information, especially online, and is pushing citizens away from foreign-based social media apps.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/08/russia-youtube-google-ukraine/

https://archive.ph/SKvJj

You’re biased, understandably so. Your links only ever has one narrative.

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Gweiloman said:

You’re biased, understandably so. Your links only ever has one narrative.

Of course I'm biased, I stick to the facts

[candide]

1 hour ago, Gweiloman said:

You’re biased, understandably so. Your links only ever has one narrative.

Russian media are controlled by the State. Western media aren't.

[Yellowtail]

1 hour ago, candide said:

Russian media are controlled by the State. Western media aren't.

Western Media is controlled by the state. 

[beautifulthailand99]

1 hour ago, candide said:

Russian media are controlled by the State. Western media aren't.

Mostly true but the western narrative is more subtle and represents the interest of the billionaires that own it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturing_Consent

 

[candide]

26 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Western Media is controlled by the state. 

No

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, candide said:

No

yes

[candide]

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

yes

No

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, candide said:

No

yes

 

You made the claim, support it or take it back. 

[candide]

11 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Mostly true but the western narrative is more subtle and represents the interest of the billionaires that own it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturing_Consent

 

I don't deny there are influences. However, there is a wide variety of media and countries  and also a wide variety of concerns by different businesses, so it's not uniform. There is also the influence of the target market. 

[candide]

4 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

yes

 

You made the claim, support it or take it back. 

For example, in the U.S., apart maybe from VOA, Media are not owned by the State.

[Yellowtail]

6 minutes ago, candide said:

For example, in the U.S., apart maybe from VOA, Media are not owned by the State.

You claimed: "Russian media are controlled by the State. Western media aren't."

 

Then, when you are called out to support your false claim, you pretend like you said that Western media was not owned by the state. 

 

Support your false claim, take it back, or be called a liar. 

 

Incidentally, just off the top of my head, both the "British Broadcasting Corporation" (BBC) and the "Canadian Broadcasting Corporation" (CBC) are state owned. 

[beautifulthailand99]

1 minute ago, candide said:

For example, in the U.S., apart maybe from VOA, Media are not owned by the State.

What is undoubtedlty true is that the narrative is very tightly controlled in Russia as is the internet and citizens are savvy enough to keep their heads down less they be effectively cut off. But polling where it does exist, and there are reliable sources is support for Putin and the war remains strong probably around 70%. Many Ukrainians know this - they may have (former?) friends and family there. That's where "all the orcs are guilty" themes stem from and many Ukrainian nationalists despised Navalny for his position of Crimea and Russian nationalism in general and celebrated his death. Ukrainian media is by and large free as well the Kyiv Independent being the freest of them all despite terrible pressure from the authorities to get it to toe a full on pro-goverment narrative particualy in the area in exposing corruption in high places in which it has played a brave and honurable role. We are all subject to confirmation bias - I want this war to end and feel it should have never been  stirred in the first place and given the volume of media that noble posters post that doesn't support that view I feel I have  a public duty to seek out and curate articles from responsible western media sources that throw shade on that unbridled optimism aka "the truth".  

[candide]

5 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

You claimed: "Russian media are controlled by the State. Western media aren't."

 

Then, when you are called out to support your false claim, you pretend like you said that Western media was not owned by the state. 

 

Support your false claim, take it back, or be called a liar. 

 

Incidentally, just off the top of my head, both the "British Broadcasting Corporation" (BBC) and the "Canadian Broadcasting Corporation" (CBC) are state owned. 

Thanks for highlighting that only a few Western media are owned by their State.

Ownership is the highest form of control. 

My point was quite relevant, compared to media such as RT.

 

That was my understanding of 'control'. Now if you want to give us your definition of control, we can start again  from this definition. 😀

[Yellowtail]

2 minutes ago, candide said:

Thanks for highlighting that only a few Western media are owned by their State.

Ownership is the highest form of control. 

I never said "...that the only a few Western media are owned by their State." 

 

Take it back or be called a liar. 

2 minutes ago, candide said:

My point was quite relevant, compared to media such as RT.

 

That was my understanding of 'control'. Now if you want to give us your definition of control, we can start again  from this definition. 😀

 

Your definition that ownership determines control is fine.  

 

So to be clear, it is your position that western media that is owned by the state is controlled by the state, and that western media not owned by the state is controlled by whoever owns the media. Correct? 

 

[RayC]

4 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Seems to me that the Ukrainian leadership and its advisors are none too smart. Everyone knows that the best way to peace is via negotiations but the Ukrainians passed a law banning peace talks with one of the most powerful men in the world and the major protagonist in this conflict thus effectively ensuring the destruction of the country. Retracting this law would be a major slap in the face for Ukraine, a major embarrassment and a desperate sign of weakness so they are well and truly up the creek without a paddle.

 

The Kursk PR stunt that had no strategic value has backfired completely and served only to hasten Russian advances along the main battlefront in the Donbass region. A main government reshuffle in the middle of an ongoing conflict merely points to more and more desperation.

 

Ukkraine is likely to cease to exist, thanks to the machinations of the west. Losing Crimea in 2014 due to a western directed coup, all for the sake of some cookies, they had a chance to keep most of their territory until Bojo came along and caused them to lose the 4 eastern oblasts. They had another chance to still keep most of their territory (excepting these 4 oblasts) but it’s looking more likely that Odessa, Sumy will eventually be lost as well.

 

Kissinger’s words ring true once again.

 

The simple truth is that a negotiated peace would be the quickest way to end this war, but it would result in Russia being rewarded for instigating the conflict and is therefore rejected by Ukraine and, for the time being at least, by her Western allies.

 

Crimea was not lost to a Western-backed coup in 2014. It was lost to another act of aggression by Russia.

 

The Maidan protests in 2014 - which eventually led to the overthrow of Yanukovych's government - were a direct result of  Yanukovych refusing to sign and implement the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.  This Agreement had already been approved by the Ukrainian parliament and formed a major plank in the platform upon which Yanukovych had been elected. However, under pressure from Moscow, Yanukovych unilaterally decided against signing the Agreement campaign but instead sought closer ties to Russia, an act which led to his removal.

 

This event was the catalyst for the escalation in the conflict in Ukraine. Russia may be concerned at what she perceives as NATO military encroachment into her sphere of influence, but imo she is even more concerned about her loss of economic influence and simply does not respect Ukraine's decision to place her future economic prospects with the West (the EU).

 

The blame for this conflict sits squarely on Russian shoulders.

[RayC]

5 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

 

In the meantime, the Russian economy continues to grow much faster than any G7 country, spurred on in part by increased military production and increased sales of natural gas to Europe. Putin probably can’t believe his luck that western leaders are so bereft of intelligence and so impotent.

 

The Russian economy does continue to grow, but The Economist poses the more relevant question: 'How long can the party last?'.

 

With the EU's renewed determination to reduce its' dependance on Russian gas, any future growth in the Russian economy may not so much be spurred on by increased military production but almost entirely dependent upon it. At the same time, there are fewer goods for the Russian public to buy and inflation is getting out of control. 

 

Hopefully, Russia's economic problems will bite progressively harder quickly.

 

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/08/11/vladimir-putin-spends-big-and-sends-russias-economy-soaring

 

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/closing-tap-russian-gas-re-exports_en

 

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-bank-inflation-economy-crisis-1922208

 

[Gweiloman]

31 minutes ago, RayC said:

 

 

With the EU's renewed determination to reduce its' dependance on Russian gas, any future growth in the Russian economy may not so much be spurred on by increased military production but almost entirely dependent upon it. At the same time, there are fewer goods for the Russian public to buy and inflation is getting out of control. 

 

 

Russia overtook the United States in the month of May as the lead supplier of liquified natural gas (LNG) to Europe for the first time in nearly two years, the Financial Times reported on June 16.

According to the International Commodity Intelligence Service (ICIS), Russian-piped gas LNG shipments made up 15 per cent of supply delivered to the EU, UK, Switzerland, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia, FT reported. While U.S. LNG supplies made up just 14 per cent of the supply.

 

 

Another example of EU determination lol.

[Cameroni]

2 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Russia overtook the United States in the month of May as the lead supplier of liquified natural gas (LNG) to Europe for the first time in nearly two years, the Financial Times reported on June 16.

According to the International Commodity Intelligence Service (ICIS), Russian-piped gas LNG shipments made up 15 per cent of supply delivered to the EU, UK, Switzerland, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia, FT reported. While U.S. LNG supplies made up just 14 per cent of the supply.

 

 

Another example of EU determination lol.

 

Quite true, publicly German is posing as if it ended all purchases of Russian gas and quietly it continues to import Russian LNG via Belgium and Netherlands.

 

 

[Gweiloman]

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Of course I'm biased, I stick to the facts

I guess my none too subtle grammar lesson flew over your head. Never mind.

 

it seems to me that your facts are derived from only one side of the narrative, Russia bad, west good. Nothing wrong with that if you’re not interested in seeing the whole picture. The Ukrainian commander in chief, I believe, blatantly lied when he said that Russia has not advanced one metre in 6 days. You accepted his statement as fact as that’s what you want to believe but when you look at liveuamap.com (a pro-Ukrainian website I might add) and put in the relevant parameters, you can see for yourself the progress the Russian army made towards Pokrovsk over the days in question.

 

It is completely understandable that Syrsky would not tell the truth as this would be admitting the failure of the Kursk operation and hasten his promotion as Ambassador to the UK.

[Gweiloman]

17 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Quite true, publicly German is posing as if it ended all purchases of Russian gas and quietly it continues to import Russian LNG via Belgium and Netherlands.

 

 

Putin has offered to resume gas supplies to Germany via its one remaining and undestroyed pipeline but of course it is not allowed to do so, so it seems that VW has no choice but to close at least one of its plants.

[RayC]

10 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Russia overtook the United States in the month of May as the lead supplier of liquified natural gas (LNG) to Europe for the first time in nearly two years, the Financial Times reported on June 16.

According to the International Commodity Intelligence Service (ICIS), Russian-piped gas LNG shipments made up 15 per cent of supply delivered to the EU, UK, Switzerland, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia, FT reported. While U.S. LNG supplies made up just 14 per cent of the supply.

 

 

Another example of EU determination lol.

 

The EU should, can and hopefully will do more to hurt Russia economically.

 

Time will tell but maybe the new targeted sanctions will help "...Of this Russian LNG reaching the EU, more than 20% is being re-exported to other parts of the world. This practice runs counter to the EU's goal to curb, as much as possible, the revenues the Kremlin derives from its energy exports to fund its war, and made new targeted sanctions necessary"

 

Nevertheless, the indications are that the Russian economy is over-heating. There is little slack in the labour market, Inflation is running at close to 10% year-on-year despite interest rates of 18%. Hopefully, tighter sanctions will increase these problems.