Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[beautifulthailand99]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

Stopping Russia now avoids a larger war down the road.

Classic Vietnam domino theory it was nonsense then and nonsense now. Schrodinger's Russia , both dead and alive at the same time - the second best army in Ukraine on it's last legs but capable of annexing Europe. Which is it ?

Edited August 24 by beautifulthailand99

[coolcarer]

Good news on Independence day, more territory regained in Karkiv

 

 

‘Attacked a Superior Enemy and Won’ – Ukraine Gains Ground in Kharkiv

Fighters of the Third separate assault brigade overran Russian battalion defense positions and took control of nearly two square kilometers of occupied territory in a successful counterattack.

Troops of the Third Separate Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) announced they had executed a series of counterattacks in the Kharkiv region, securing nearly two square kilometers of the front line.
“Official: The Third Assault Brigade is advancing in the Kharkiv region, reclaiming territories!” read a message from the brigade on Telegram.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37853

[beautifulthailand99]

There is some reasoning behind the Kursk offensive based on simple logic;

 

Option 1: Deploy all your troops to the Donbass front to slow down the Russians who will advance anyway

Option 2: Deploy your reserves and best trained men on a hail Mary mission into Russia hoping Russia's reaction is to withdraw men from the front, easing off the pressure and letting it stabilise

 

Option 2 is the more sound one as there was a chance it could have worked, unfortunately for Ukraine it didn't and the Russians have continued the same pace of advance in Donbass whilst deploying enough reserves to stall the Kursk offensive without sacrificing the Toretsk/Pokrovsk offensive capabilities, leading to a lose lose where not only is Ukraine still getting battered in Donbass but now it's best brigades are tied down in Kursk. They didn't take the bait.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c785z8917leo

 

Ukraine had hoped that by seizing territory in Russia's Kursk region it would be able to divert Russian troops away from their eastern advance, but that has not happened. If anything the Russian offensive on Pokrovsk, and Toretsk further to the north east, has intensified.

"Pokrovsk is a very important hub, a centre of defence. If we lose Pokrovsk, the entire front line will crumble," military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov warned.

Ukraine relies on the town's rail and road infrastructure to provide supplies and reinforcements to its troops on the eastern front line, as well as to evacuate the wounded.

[Bkk Brian]

Europe will always be at Ukraine’s side, because Ukraine is Europe.
 
Your freedom is our freedom.
Your security is our security.

We've been standing with you since day one. And we'll continue to do so, for as long as it takes.
 
I'm wishing our friends a proud Independence Day.

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

I'm increasingly drawn to the argument that Ukraine is running on fumes - note the comments of the dire state of conscripts I posted up thread and their lack of training or weapons or even motivation to fight. Zelenskiy has repeatedly said that this war will end in November and there has been shuttle diplomacy with UKR and China and India. When these negotiations come the Kursk incursion makes sense as trading land for peace. The 64,000 Rouble question is of course will Putin bite. Both sides will have to beleive they have won - when neither have. It is a European tragedy without equal in my lifetime. Let's hope it ends soon and this senseless slaughter ends.

 

“War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.”

Edited August 24 by beautifulthailand99

[Bkk Brian]

From Finland who recently joined NATO thanks to Putin. 

 

Minister for Foreign Affairs @elinavaltonen congratulates Ukraine on Independence Day. Finland stands with Ukraine now and in the future. 🇫🇮 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine

 

 

[ballpoint]

3 hours ago, Mavideol said:

kids have tantrums, guess even killers/assassins get some  555

Putin Is Having A Tantrum And Refusing To Start Peace Talks After Ukraine's Incursion

https://au.yahoo.com/news/putin-having-tantrum-refusing-start-092908156.html

 

Putin has always said that any peace talks would be based on the premise that borders would be frozen as they are now (or, rather, were prior to Ukraine's incursion).  Having Ukraine in Russia, effectively ceding territory if they are frozen now, is something he's not prepared for.  The situation shows the lack of any real peace effort on his side - he's prepared for (temporary) peace if he can keep the land he's grabbed and Ukraine gets nothing, but he's spitting the dummy now that, by his own previous "peace" conditions, he stands to lose land.  Peace talks are a two way process, but this development just shows his calls for peace were a sham, designed to grab territory and give nothing in return.

[ballpoint]

A very interesting interview, basically split into two main premises.

 

Firstly that Putin's lines in the sand are nothing but talk.

"If the West supplies Ukraine with long range weapons, we will nuke the West!"  Ukraine receives various Western missiles. 

"Okay, but if Ukraine attacks Russia, including Crimea and the land we claimed prior to this "operation" we will nuke the West!"  Ukraine goes ahead and attacks these lands, then Crimea, then Russia. 

"Alright, but if Ukraine steps foot on Russian territory we'll definitely nuke the West.  We're serious now!"  Ukraine invades the Kurk region, using Western supplied vehicles and weapons.  Putin is belligerent.  "Splutter, splutter! This is terrorism!"  But does nothing.  The Tsar has no clothes.

 

Secondly, and more interesting, while the, largely Slavic people of Moscow and St Petersburg might support Putin, at least in the open, there have been many demonstrations by other ethnic groups in the provinces that are supplying many of the conscripts, who really have a big stake in the war, and don't like it.  As an aside, I wonder just how many Russians fleeing the draft in places like Thailand come from the big, more European, cities, and how many come from the provinces?  From what I've seen, heard and read, there are very few of the latter.  Like everywhere, the richer wriggle out of it, the poorer are trapped.  Conscripted into the army, serving as cannon fodder to Moscow based generals.  Now, however, the rich ones are feeling the pinch too - not militarily, but economically.  Oligarchs are even openly speaking out against this war, saying it was a stupid thing to do, and acknowledging that, okay, Ukraine likely won't win, but neither will Russia.  The push into Kursk is heightening their fears, and anger, and may be the final straw.  She even discusses the very real possibility that Putin will be forced to step down by the powers with the money.  Whether this would actually eventuate or not, it's still worth listening to her reasoning.

 

 

[TedG]

3 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I'm increasingly drawn to the argument that Ukraine is running on fumes - note the comments of the dire state of conscripts I posted up thread and their lack of training or weapons or even motivation to fight. Zelenskiy has repeatedly said that this war will end in November and there has been shuttle diplomacy with UKR and China and India. When these negotiations come the Kursk incursion makes sense as trading land for peace. The 64,000 Rouble question is of course will Putin bite. Both sides will have to beleive they have won - when neither have. It is a European tragedy without equal in my lifetime. Let's hope it ends soon and this senseless slaughter ends.

 

“War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.”

I think Russia is running on fumes.  

[TedG]

1 hour ago, ballpoint said:

Putin has always said that any peace talks would be based on the premise that borders would be frozen as they are now (or, rather, were prior to Ukraine's incursion).  Having Ukraine in Russia, effectively ceding territory if they are frozen now, is something he's not prepared for.  The situation shows the lack of any real peace effort on his side - he's prepared for (temporary) peace if he can keep the land he's grabbed and Ukraine gets nothing, but he's spitting the dummy now that, by his own previous "peace" conditions, he stands to lose land.  Peace talks are a two way process, but this development just shows his calls for peace were a sham, designed to grab territory and give nothing in return.

Putin wanted to end the war for now.  Then rebuilt and try again.   

[zmisha]

19 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

 

16. English is the only permitted language anywhere on ASEAN NOW, except within the Thai language forum, where using Thai is allowed. Short Thai translations of technical terms are permitted in specialty forums. While we make allowances for members who do not speak English as their first language, we expect everyone to make an effort to post in a manner that allows others to understand their posts. As an international forum we have members from many countries in the world, and English is not the first language of every poster.

 

Looks very outdated. This rule appeared in the pre - translate.google.com era and never updated. Now it is the ChatGPT era when you can enjoy high quality translation levels - so it is very easy to translate everything on the fly (even in browser) or enable subtitles in any language you prefer on YouTube. Decades has passed and language barriers are not even comparable to those we saw in 2000s or 1990s era. 

[zmisha]

On 8/23/2024 at 5:28 PM, beautifulthailand99 said:

Links please.

One notable example - 
https://www.ukrainianworldcongress.org/us-okays-the-first-transfer-of-seized-russian-money-to-ukraine/
Europe seems to do the same - 
https://www.npr.org/2024/05/22/1252872978/russia-assets-aid-ukraine-eu-war-sanctions

[Jingthing]

Hard times now but marking INDEPEDENCE DAY in Ukraine.

 

[MicroB]

17 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

Yes, and Germany too has severe problems to sustain the 8 billion freebies it hands out to Ukraine and has announced it will scale that back to 50 percent less and then one tenth of it. In the US many are questioning the enormous sums poured into Ukraine. 

 

It can't continue indefinitely. Resources are limited in the West.

 

But not as limited as Russia's.

[kwonitoy]

5000 tons of munitions going up

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, ballpoint said:

"If the West supplies Ukraine with long range weapons, we will nuke the West!"  Ukraine receives various Western missiles. 

"Okay, but if Ukraine attacks Russia, including Crimea and the land we claimed prior to this "operation" we will nuke the West!"  Ukraine goes ahead and attacks these lands, then Crimea, then Russia. 

"Alright, but if Ukraine steps foot on Russian territory we'll definitely nuke the West. 

As usual making claims of fact with nothing to back them up. Putin has not, to my knowledge threatened to nuke the "west". Ukraine yes, the West, no.

 

I wait with bated breath for your link to a reputable source proving that you are correct.

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, ballpoint said:

She even discusses the very real possibility that Putin will be forced to step down by the powers with the money.  Whether this would actually eventuate or not, it's still worth listening to her reasoning.

LOL. Putin apparently has no problem making even the rich have an unfortunate accident. I doubt he has any affection for any of them anyway, but they were obviously useful for a while.

 

Even the guy with a private army wasn't invincible, and guess what, his army didn't do anything when his plane fell out of the sky.

 

It'll be a brave oligarch to try anything foolish.

Edited August 25 by thaibeachlovers

[stevenl]

15 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

As usual making claims of fact with nothing to back them up. Putin has not, to my knowledge threatened to nuke the "west". Ukraine yes, the West, no.

 

I wait with bated breath for your link to a reputable source proving that you are correct.

That's rich coming from the guy who states facts without links all the time.

[thaibeachlovers]

3 minutes ago, stevenl said:

That's rich coming from the guy who states facts without links all the time.

BS. Unless I make it clear that it's an opinion I always post a link.

Prove it, but you can't.

[Social Media]

Foreign language videos removed along with some off topic posts and replies.

 

"All video content must be from a credible media source, and in English. Foreign languages, even with subtitles, are not permitted."

[kwonitoy]

 

New missile that was used on the ammo dump

[Yellowtail]

I think Ukraine has an uphill battle against Russia, and it has been my position that without NATO boots on the ground, they will not get their pre-2014 borders back.

 

That said, the Berlin Wall falling in '89 was quite a surprise to many. 

[ballpoint]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

As usual making claims of fact with nothing to back them up. Putin has not, to my knowledge threatened to nuke the "west". Ukraine yes, the West, no.

 

I wait with bated breath for your link to a reputable source proving that you are correct.

 

"Ukraine recap: Putin celebrates Victory Day with nuclear threats to UK and France"

Putin celebrates with nuclear threats to UK and France (ukdefencejournal.org.uk)

 

 

"The UK should not rule out sending troops to Ukraine – despite Putin’s nuclear threats"

The UK should not rule out sending troops to Ukraine – despite Putin’s nuclear threats | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

 

"Russia’s Medvedev threatens to nuke US, UK, Germany, Ukraine if Russia loses occupied territories"

Russia’s Medvedev threatens to nuke US, UK, Germany, Ukraine if Russia loses occupied territories (kyivindependent.com)

 

"Russia's former president threatened nuclear attacks on Western capital cities if NATO sends any troops to Ukraine"

Medvedev Threatens Nuclear Attacks on Western Capitals If NATO Troops Arrive - Business Insider

 

"Putin's puppet threatens to unleash nuclear Armageddon on UK if Russia loses in Ukraine"

Putin's puppet threatens to unleash nuclear Armageddon on UK if Russia loses in Ukraine | World | News | Express.co.uk

 

There are many more instances, including the famous threat to "sink the UK beneath the sea" one.  Indeed, many of your own arguments against the war are due to the possibility of it escalating into a nuclear one between Russia and NATO.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 25 by ballpoint

[Mavideol]

Vladimir Putin declares state of emergency in Russian region after Ukraine attack

https://au.yahoo.com/news/vladimir-putin-declares-state-emergency-150517490.html

 

[Mavideol]

maybe Vlad and Xi love story could turn sour as both want to grab any piece of rock/water/land

Map Shows Russia Border River Eyed by China

https://www.newsweek.com/map-shows-russian-territory-eyed-china-1915298

 

 

 

[candide]

1 hour ago, Mavideol said:

maybe Vlad and Xi love story could turn sour as both want to grab any piece of rock/water/land

Map Shows Russia Border River Eyed by China

https://www.newsweek.com/map-shows-russian-territory-eyed-china-1915298

 

 

 

The Chinese are just taking advantage of Russia's current dependence on China.

 

About the map, it's nothing new, it's been taught in school for decades that these tritories are Chinese. HoweverChina has time to recover the lost territories and will ply the long game.

It could unfold in this way:

- more and more Chinese will massively settle across the border (it has already started),

- then China will complain that Chinese residents are oppressed,

- then it will launch a special opration to save Chinese residents. 😆

[Bkk Brian]

The boy that cried wolf. A bit like those that keep going on about WW3 and MAD

 

Ukraine’s punch through Russian defenses in the first foreign invasion since World War II has laid bare Moscow’s apparently illusory red lines.

 

Ukraine keeps crossing Russia’s red lines. Putin keeps blinking.

If Russia’s territorial integrity were threatened, “we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It’s not a bluff,” he said a few months later in September. “The citizens of Russia can be sure that the territorial integrity of our Motherland, our independence and freedom will be ensured — I emphasize this again — with all the means at our disposal,” making a clear reference to Russia’s nuclear weapons.

But Ukraine’s punch through Russian defenses in the first foreign invasion since World War II exposed Russia’s military flaws and laid bare Moscow’s apparently illusory red lines.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/24/putin-red-lines-war-ukraine/

https://archive.ph/NxCRR

[RayC]

9 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

As usual making claims of fact with nothing to back them up. Putin has not, to my knowledge threatened to nuke the "west". Ukraine yes, the West, no.

 

That's alright then (sarcasm alert)

[spidermike007]

Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has become quite a horrifying event, its butchery in plain view via saturation coverage for anyone with a video screen. But Americans may not yet have absorbed this disturbing reality: The American president who left office just 14 months ago sided with the butcher.

 

That's right: In the struggle now uniting the free world against an autocrat's lawless aggression, America's most recent ex-President sided with the autocrat.

 

His administration implemented some new sanctions on Russia at the insistence of national security officials and Congress. Trump himself objected.

 

"In almost every case, the sanctions were imposed with Trump complaining about it and saying we were being too hard," his former national security adviser John Bolton said on Newsmax recently.

 

He fomented discord at home, advancing Putin's objective of sapping American resolve. "Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people," his former Defense Secretary James Mattis said in 2020.

[spidermike007]

 

One may ask why has Putin chosen this moment to make his move on Ukraine? As many have pointed out, Russia is an objectively weak state — “Upper Volta with nuclear weapons,” as someone once quipped — with a nominal G.D.P. smaller than that of South Korea. Outside of energy, minerals and second-rate military equipment, it produces almost nothing that outsiders want: no Russian iPhone, Lexus or “Fauda.” If it were not for the minerals, oil and natural gas, I believe Russia would be a highly irrelevant state. Sure, it had alot of culture. Had. What have it's contributions been since the middle of the 20th century?

 

Putin’s problem with Ukraine, starting with the Maidan uprising of 2014, is that Ukrainians want nothing to do with him. He is despised. And for good reason. If he were a Disney character, he’d be Rapunzel’s mother. But, he is not a Disney character, which makes him a pathetic, aggressive, serial killing despot dictator, who appears to be targeting women and children in his latest escapade, and further walk into the world of darkness.