Trump's Narrow Edge Over Biden in 538 Election Forecast Sparks Debate

[Social Media]

 

Former President Donald Trump has taken a slight lead over President Joe Biden in the latest presidential election forecast by 538. As the presumptive Republican nominee gears up for a rematch with Biden, the race is proving to be much tighter than many anticipated, with the two candidates frequently appearing neck and neck in various polls. The recent projection by 538 indicates Trump winning 51 times out of 100 simulations, while Biden wins 49 times out of 100.

 

This marks a notable change from the project's launch in April, where Biden had a more comfortable lead, being projected to win 58 times out of 100 compared to Trump’s 41 times out of 100. This lead persisted until last week when Biden's projected victories dropped to 53 times out of 100 against Trump's 47. The slim margin highlights the volatility and competitiveness of the upcoming election.

 

The 538 simulation forecast considers a multitude of factors to predict likely election outcomes. These include adjusted polling averages, economic and political indicators, and demographic data. Such forecasts are significant as they provide a glimpse into the potential direction of the election, though they are not definitive predictions. The real outcome will hinge on a few key swing states, given the Electoral College system's weight. A candidate must secure 270 electoral votes to win, meaning national popular vote results do not necessarily guarantee a win.

 

Despite Trump’s current edge in the 538 projection, other polls suggest a different story. For instance, an Echelon Insights poll conducted between June 10 and June 12 found Biden slightly ahead, with 48 percent of respondents indicating they would vote for him compared to 47 percent for Trump. Furthermore, Biden and Trump are currently tied in Virginia, a state that has not supported a Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2004.

 

Experts caution against drawing definitive conclusions from these early projections. Heath Brown, an associate professor of public policy at the City University of New York, emphasizes the split nature of the polling. "I think all the polling for the last six months suggests the country has been and will remain evenly split," he told Newsweek. "Slight ups and downs for either candidate in any given poll are largely washed out by the next set of polls. My conclusion is Biden and Trump have just about equal support right now, with a sizable portion of the country undecided about who they support and whether they'll turn out on Election Day."

 

The significance of these forecasts lies in their ability to influence campaign strategies and voter perceptions. As both candidates prepare for the first of two scheduled debates in Atlanta on June 27, the focus will be on how they perform and whether they can sway the undecided voters. The debates will provide a crucial platform for both Trump and Biden to present their visions for the country and address critical issues facing the electorate.

 

538’s daily updates on its forecast simulator will continue to reflect the latest data and trends, offering an evolving picture of the race. As the November 5 election day approaches, both campaigns will be keenly watching these forecasts, adjusting their strategies to gain an edge in what promises to be one of the most closely contested elections in recent history. The unpredictable nature of the political climate, compounded by external factors such as economic conditions and international events, ensures that the race will remain dynamic and uncertain up until the final votes are cast.

 

Credit: Newsweek 2024-06-19

 

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[Tug]

Personally I’m not buying a trump win,not after women’s rights the Nazi quotes the imbecile like rants the putin groveling the voiced willingness to throw our allies under the bus the brain dead tarreffs to eliminate income tax the threat to the economy.weighed against the Biden administration’s record of the strong steady economy the legislative wins the support of our allies his support of the environment….and on and on.thats not even getting into trumps attempted coup not the fast and lose treatment of our national security not that he’s a felon and adjudged sexual assaulted/rapist……naa don’t think so not buying it

[spidermike007]

As much as I would prefer another candidate, and as badly as the Democrats needed to field a younger, more capable candidate, I will choose Biden over Trump, just like I would choose Miley Cyrus over Trump, or Pauly Shore over Trump.

 

Anybody but Trump. 

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

As much as I would prefer another candidate, and as badly as the Democrats needed to field a younger, more capable candidate, I will choose Biden over Trump, just like I would choose Miley Cyrus over Trump, or Pauly Shore over Trump.

 

Anybody but Trump. 

So long as Harris will become POTUS when Biden resigns ( anyone taking bets on how long he lasts yet? ) I'll support anyone except Biden.

 

If Biden does another freeze during the debates he'll be done right then and there, IMO.

I suspect they will be taking precautions for any further public outings, but it'll be a bit hard to have a minder at his side during the debates.

[thaipo7]

Tug -  Personally I don't see how any rational person in the US would vote for Biden.  But we do have a lot of mentally deficient useful idiots that would vote for anything with a "D" next to the name.   Since you are a clear supporter of Biden or anyone else here who is, why not let the group know what polices of Bide you want to see for another 4 years?  I don't see even one.  Americans are so dumbed down, they can think about their futures.  It will be hard for Trump to overcome his 34 convictions of made up and prosecuted for political reasons only charges.  Then we also have to overcome the ways Democrats steal elections.  It will take a Reagan style of election to get the US on the road to recovery.  Biden and his handlers (Obama) are so afraid of one man.  A man who does not need this crap by cares about the US enough to give up his lifestyle for America.  There has never been a "lunch bucket Joe."  This this his whole political life has been a lie.  Ad this morning for the area I live in.  Joe Biden has cut energy costs.  Where?  Where?  If his supporters really want a Marxist Tyrannical leader, he is the man. Problem is I have to suffer because he is supported like the last 4 years.  If Trump is elected, the dumb ass supporters of Biden will prosper too.  Really not far.  You want a N Korean style of living, go to N Korea.  Your kind are leaving CA and NY in droves.  They are moving to red states.  Then these same dumb people vote Democrat anyway.  Why not just stay in the Democrat hell hole you came from?  VA is a great example.  Red for years then the elites from DC have moved in and turned the state blue with all the bad habits they brought with them. 

 

 

 

[Woof999]

3 minutes ago, thaipo7 said:

Then we also have to overcome the ways Democrats steal elections.

 

You're calling out dumb people all over the shop and then go on to write this. Just wow.

[CallumWK]

17 hours ago, Tug said:

Personally I’m not buying a trump win

 

Of course because Biden is working hard creating new voters, though I'm not confident if that will be enough.

 

 

Biden to Grant Legal Status to Undocumented Spouses of US Citizens

[thesetat2013]

popularity votes mean nothing as was shown before in the trump/biden elections. so polling the public means nothing as well. If the electoral voters want trump this time. then he will win.. if not then biden will win. either way the US is going to be bad until the country can find decent people to be allowed to run for the presidency. 

[GammaGlobulin]

Maybe THIS is the question those of us should be asking:

 

 

[candide]

2 hours ago, thaipo7 said:

Tug -  Personally I don't see how any rational person in the US would vote for Biden.  But we do have a lot of mentally deficient useful idiots that would vote for anything with a "D" next to the name.   Since you are a clear supporter of Biden or anyone else here who is, why not let the group know what polices of Bide you want to see for another 4 years?  I don't see even one.  Americans are so dumbed down, they can think about their futures.  It will be hard for Trump to overcome his 34 convictions of made up and prosecuted for political reasons only charges.  Then we also have to overcome the ways Democrats steal elections.  It will take a Reagan style of election to get the US on the road to recovery.  Biden and his handlers (Obama) are so afraid of one man.  A man who does not need this crap by cares about the US enough to give up his lifestyle for America.  There has never been a "lunch bucket Joe."  This this his whole political life has been a lie.  Ad this morning for the area I live in.  Joe Biden has cut energy costs.  Where?  Where?  If his supporters really want a Marxist Tyrannical leader, he is the man. Problem is I have to suffer because he is supported like the last 4 years.  If Trump is elected, the dumb ass supporters of Biden will prosper too.  Really not far.  You want a N Korean style of living, go to N Korea.  Your kind are leaving CA and NY in droves.  They are moving to red states.  Then these same dumb people vote Democrat anyway.  Why not just stay in the Democrat hell hole you came from?  VA is a great example.  Red for years then the elites from DC have moved in and turned the state blue with all the bad habits they brought with them. 

 

 

 

Calling other people dumb, that's rich! 🤣

[Tug]

7 hours ago, thaipo7 said:

Tug -  Personally I don't see how any rational person in the US would vote for Biden.  But we do have a lot of mentally deficient useful idiots that would vote for anything with a "D" next to the name.   Since you are a clear supporter of Biden or anyone else here who is, why not let the group know what polices of Bide you want to see for another 4 years?  I don't see even one.  Americans are so dumbed down, they can think about their futures.  It will be hard for Trump to overcome his 34 convictions of made up and prosecuted for political reasons only charges.  Then we also have to overcome the ways Democrats steal elections.  It will take a Reagan style of election to get the US on the road to recovery.  Biden and his handlers (Obama) are so afraid of one man.  A man who does not need this crap by cares about the US enough to give up his lifestyle for America.  There has never been a "lunch bucket Joe."  This this his whole political life has been a lie.  Ad this morning for the area I live in.  Joe Biden has cut energy costs.  Where?  Where?  If his supporters really want a Marxist Tyrannical leader, he is the man. Problem is I have to suffer because he is supported like the last 4 years.  If Trump is elected, the dumb ass supporters of Biden will prosper too.  Really not far.  You want a N Korean style of living, go to N Korea.  Your kind are leaving CA and NY in droves.  They are moving to red states.  Then these same dumb people vote Democrat anyway.  Why not just stay in the Democrat hell hole you came from?  VA is a great example.  Red for years then the elites from DC have moved in and turned the state blue with all the bad habits they brought with them. 

 

 

 

Well gee wizz policy’s ……humm….lets see…there’s supporting democracy both here and abroad there’s the standing shoulder to shoulder with our Allie’s……then there’s seeding renewables…..supporting environmental issues…..infrastructure…..drug prices……Women’s rights……domestically produced micro chips……supporting nato…..respecting and supporting our vets……revamping nato….standing up to putin not humping his leg like trump….supporting law and order……standing with and for labor and the middle class….heck thaipo there’s lots and lots more competency over chaos….gee I do no…..the rest of your post in my opinion is rubbish hope that clears it up for you doubt it tho

[Danderman123]

No point in getting worked up over these early polls.

 

The pros are planning their ground game, the Dems have a giant machine, with support from labor unions.

 

The Republicans have Lara Trump.

[Danderman123]

7 hours ago, thesetat2013 said:

popularity votes mean nothing as was shown before in the trump/biden elections. so polling the public means nothing as well. If the electoral voters want trump this time. then he will win.. if not then biden will win. either way the US is going to be bad until the country can find decent people to be allowed to run for the presidency. 

You are overly focused on personalities. In America, the political parties run the government when they are elected. So a Biden government and an Obama government are pretty much the same.

 

Trump is the aberration since he won't put Republican experts in charge, his people will run the government. And his people are pretty crazy.

[Danderman123]

15 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

So long as Harris will become POTUS when Biden resigns ( anyone taking bets on how long he lasts yet? ) I'll support anyone except Biden.

 

If Biden does another freeze during the debates he'll be done right then and there, IMO.

I suspect they will be taking precautions for any further public outings, but it'll be a bit hard to have a minder at his side during the debates.

I agree.

 

If Biden freezes during the debate, he will be replaced.

 

If Trump freezes, his followers won't care.

[thaibeachlovers]

31 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I agree.

 

If Biden freezes during the debate, he will be replaced.

 

If Trump freezes, his followers won't care.

I agree.

Trump voters will support anyone that wants to destroy Washington as it is, and Trump is the only politician that has said he wants to. The others are all Washingtonian creatures through and through, IMO.

[WDSmart]

I hope Trump does not win or even come close to winning the presidential election in November. However, if the results are close, or maybe even if they are not, I don't think either side (Democrat or Republican) will accept them. I think either way, there will be a lot of violence. 

My main concern is not so much Trump himself but that there are so many people in my home county who would support and vote for him. Because of that alone, whether he wins or not, I'm not likely to ever return to the USA because of disgust with what it has become. 

[thaibeachlovers]

36 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You are overly focused on personalities. In America, the political parties run the government when they are elected. So a Biden government and an Obama government are pretty much the same.

 

Trump is the aberration since he won't put Republican experts in charge, his people will run the government. And his people are pretty crazy.

Trump was elected to destroy Washington. What sense would it make to put Washington creatures in charge?

[Danderman123]

26 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I agree.

Trump voters will support anyone that wants to destroy Washington as it is, and Trump is the only politician that has said he wants to. The others are all Washingtonian creatures through and through, IMO.

Because you think "destroying Washington" is a good thing.

 

Easy for a foreigner to say, especially a Putin supporter.

 

 

[Danderman123]

25 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Trump was elected to destroy Washington. What sense would it make to put Washington creatures in charge?

I understand you don't want to US to continue as the world's number one power. 

 

Trump is a traitor, and will lose in November, and then your chance to destroy the US is gone.

[Danderman123]

28 minutes ago, WDSmart said:

I hope Trump does not win or even come close to winning the presidential election in November. However, if the results are close, or maybe even if they are not, I don't think either side (Democrat or Republican) will accept them. I think either way, there will be a lot of violence. 

My main concern is not so much Trump himself but that there are so many people in my home county who would support and vote for him. Because of that alone, whether he wins or not, I'm not likely to ever return to the USA because of disgust with what it has become. 

Don't despair, organize!

[stopthecap]

37 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I agree.

Trump voters will support anyone that wants to destroy Washington as it is, and Trump is the only politician that has said he wants to. The others are all Washingtonian creatures through and through, IMO.

 

ITS TOTAL CHAOS. I trust the lifelong politicians more than anyone else.

[WDSmart]

15 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

43 minutes ago, WDSmart said:

My main concern is not so much Trump himself but that there are so many people in my home county who would support and vote for him. Because of that alone, whether he wins or not, I'm not likely to ever return to the USA because of disgust with what it has become. 

Don't despair, organize!

I live here in Thailand. I am registered to vote and will cast my vote in California. Their electoral votes will be for Trump, with or without my vote. So, there is nothing really I can do but post anti-Trump memes on Facebook, most of my friends there share my sentiments on Trump, and if a Trump supporter sees them, they wouldn't believe them anyway.

I think the die is cast. It will be a close election, but, like I said above, whoever wins, the other side will not accept the result. There will be chaos, and I'm talking about "blood-in-the-streets" chaos.

I'll be watching it all live on CNN from my easy chair up here in the jungle-filled mountains of Thailand. 

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, stopthecap said:

 

ITS TOTAL CHAOS. I trust the lifelong politicians more than anyone else.

America became great when traditional politicians were in charge.

 

Why change now?

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, WDSmart said:

 I am registered to vote and will cast my vote in California. Their electoral votes will be for Trump, with or without my vote. 

California is a lock for Biden. Trump won't even campaign there.

 

I hope you are feeling okay.

[Danderman123]

3 hours ago, WDSmart said:

I hope Trump does not win or even come close to winning the presidential election in November. However, if the results are close, or maybe even if they are not, I don't think either side (Democrat or Republican) will accept them. I think either way, there will be a lot of violence. 
 

The election won't be close, Biden will win the electoral vote rather easily.

 

Afterwards, the pundits will say "the economy was so good, nobody could beat Biden".

[Chomper Higgot]

Even FOX can’t hide this truth:

 

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls

 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-major-gains-crucial-voting-group-first-debate-trump-poll

 

 

Edited June 20 by Chomper Higgot

[Chomper Higgot]

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Even FOX can’t hide this truth:

 

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls

 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-major-gains-crucial-voting-group-first-debate-trump-poll

 

 

Convicted Felon Trump isn’t happy with the news:

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-loses-fox-news-says-210928095.html

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

America became great when traditional politicians were in charge.

 

Why change now?

IMO the US stopped being great when it made the fundamental mistake of thinking it could win in Vietnam. Been on a down spiral ever since.

Traditional politicians were in charge during those years, were they not?

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO the US stopped being great when it made the fundamental mistake of thinking it could win in Vietnam. Been on a down spiral ever since.

Traditional politicians were in charge during those years, were they not?

Most countries would love to be in the same condition as the US.

 

How about Russia's current death spiral, why aren't you concerned about that?

[Danderman123]

If Biden is so senile, why do the right wing trolls have to create fake videos to make him look bad?