Experts Say Another Thai Military Coup is Unlikely

[DD86]

12 hours ago, Homburg said:

You know that a coup is likely when they start to deny it.

and when it's least expecred.

[DD86]

9 hours ago, Sydebolle said:

Other experts say that the Earth is flat ......... 

agree with that and the world suddenly get's easier.

[MrMo]

Bar quiz question (probably not to be asked in an Amazing Thailand bar ) -Which country has had the military take over governmental power since 1945 on the most occasions ?

[john donson]

I guess the previous 14-21 coup experts before said the same

[Hunz Kittisak]

4 hours ago, candide said:

One of the few relevant comments in this thread.

 

This article ignores the most important fact:

 

The armed forces located in Bangkok are now under direct Royal command.

 

The army chief or any other general have no power to order them to make a coup.

If the coup mongers need more proof just check out the new military reshuffle namelist. 
Red rim officers dominate the key positions. 
Has been that way since few years prior.

 

 

 

[candide]

17 minutes ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

If the coup mongers need more proof just check out the new military reshuffle namelist. 
Red rim officers dominate the key positions. 
Has been that way since few years prior.

 

 

 

I forgot about it.

 

For BM who don't know about it

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Turbulent-Thailand/Thailand-king-s-elite-Red-Rim-officers-enter-the-spotlight

[Luuk Chaai]

21 hours ago, gargamon said:

How many of the coups were done to take the Thaksin clan out of power?

 

obviously ..  not enough

[sandyf]

16 hours ago, billd766 said:

His was the last military coup (that I know of) in the UK and that was nearly 300 years ago.

Indeed.  He got rid of the government of the day and a similar situation has never arisen since.

A bit the same in the US,  they squashed the confederates and there has been relative unity since.

Thailand is a different scenario, the UK and US are effectively 2 party states, whereas Thailand has too many cooks in the kitchen. Political differences come about very easily and they end up with the army knocking their heads together.

[kwilco]

4 hours ago, sandyf said:

Indeed.  He got rid of the government of the day and a similar situation has never arisen since.

A bit the same in the US,  they squashed the confederates and there has been relative unity since.

Thailand is a different scenario, the UK and US are effectively 2 party states, whereas Thailand has too many cooks in the kitchen. Political differences come about very easily and they end up with the army knocking their heads together.

that is really not what happens in Thailand.

[kwilco]

On 9/2/2024 at 2:59 AM, Sydebolle said:

Other experts say that the Earth is flat ......... 

If you say the world is flat, it means by the very statement, you aren't an "expert"

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, kwilco said:

that is really not what happens in Thailand.

Really!

In 25 years I have seen quite a bit of what happens in Thailand. Unfortunately many never leave their back yard and think what they see is what happens everywhere.

[kwilco]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Really!

In 25 years I have seen quite a bit of what happens in Thailand. Unfortunately many never leave their back yard and think what they see is what happens everywhere.

I lived in Thailand for 20 years, first visited in 1994 and still spend a lot of the year in th country.

I have studied and read a lot about both Thai history and politics - I worked at Universities in Thailand Australia and Uk -  I know enough about critical thinking not to take "What I see" for granted.

A lot of what you need to read to understand the situation in Thailand is "not available" in Thailand. You can of course speak to academics and politicians (I used to work for a high ranking Yellow shirt)  A lot of what I have learned about Thai politics I'm not at liberty to discuss on this site (or any other in Thailand).THe truth is that the "ruling elite" in THailand is and has always been fractured and a lot depends on who has the upper hand as to if or when a coup takes place.

 

"Thailand has too many cooks in the kitchen. Political differences come about very easily and they end up with the army knocking their heads together." THis is a basic misunderstanding of what happens in Thailand - in reality there is a 32 party system but the legal system is used to break it up. Power however is not is the parliamentary system it is elsewhere - the army doesn't "knock heads together" although that is the image they portray they are actually part of the goverment of Thailand not like is US or Europe. THere are not that many political differences they are just split up by the courts....when the courst can go no further the military take over. Needless to say this is a partial picture as the full picture can't be discussed.

 

 

It places like Australia USA and UK there is a constitutional division of power - unfortunately in Thailand these divisions are either blurred or non-existent. Hence the decades of political instability.

 

[lordgrinz]

Weren't coups made a illegal in the Thai constitution before Prayut started his coup?

[Thailand]

When the head of the military says no chance of a coup you can put your money on it.

Would be my 4th coup in Thailand!

[Sydebolle]

22 hours ago, kwilco said:

If you say the world is flat, it means by the very statement, you aren't an "expert"

Correct! Yet read the lines properly, I referred to the fact that other "experts consider the world flat". As I am of the belief, that the world is not flat, it makes me automatically a non-expert. Hope that clarifies the statement earlier on 😉