Allan Lichtman, the Nostradamus of U.S. presidential predictions has made his FINAL pick

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, proton said:

 

Should be pulled down, he was a tyrant and a traitor to the constitution. Read some of his speeches eg 18th Sept 1858

 

I will say then that I am not, nor ever have been, in favor of bringing about in any way the social and political equality of the white and black races, [applause]-that I am not nor ever have been in favor of making voters or jurors of negroes, nor of qualifying them to hold office, nor to intermarry with white people; and I will say in addition to this that there is a physical difference between the white and black races which I believe will forever forbid the two races living together on terms of social and political equality. And inasmuch as they cannot so live, while they do remain together there must be the position of superior and inferior, and I as much as any other man am in favor of having the superior position assigned to the white race. 

Bigoted yes. A supporter of slavery, no.

[Jingthing]

Just now, placeholder said:

Bigoted yes. A supporter of slavery, no.

Right.

You can't apply the PC standards of today to any historical figure.

[placeholder]

Just now, Jingthing said:

Right.

You can't apply the PC standards of today to any historical figure.

Also, Lincoln was a politician. I don't know what his private opinions were, or if there is any record of them, but to state that he believed Black people were just as good as white people, or at least deserved the same rights, probably would have doomed him politically.

Anyway, his comment was irrelevant to the lack of importance he assigns to the abolition of slavery.

[Cameroni]

25 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Did he? Not according to this story dated sep 26, 2008 which explicitly made this correction:

Editor’s Note: This story has been updated with a correction. It has been corrected to read that Prof. Lichtman’s 13 Keys system predicts the winner of the presidential race, not the outcome of the popular vote.

https://www.american.edu/media/news/092616-13-keys-prediction.cfm

 

Yeeeess, that correction was inserted after it was pointed out that in fact Lichtman predicted the popular vote. That was what his book specifically says, that his 13 keys predict the popular vote.

 

See also here:

 

American University historian Allan Lichtman has predicted the winner of the presidential popular vote every November since 1984

 

And his famous 2016 prediction that Mr. Trump would win, a prediction very few people made, was actually his one mistake. Mr. Trump lost the national popular vote to Hillary Clinton, though he won in the Electoral College.

 

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/sep/5/allan-lichtman-renowned-presidential-prognosticato/

[Jingthing]

9 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Also, Lincoln was a politician. I don't know what his private opinions were, or if there is any record of them, but to state that he believed Black people were just as good as white people, or at least deserved the same rights, probably would have doomed him politically.

Anyway, his comment was irrelevant to the lack of importance he assigns to the abolition of slavery.

Exactly.

They would have definitely doomed him.

 

[placeholder]

8 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Yeeeess, that correction was inserted after it was pointed out that in fact Lichtman predicted the popular vote. That was what his book specifically says, that his 13 keys predict the popular vote.

 

See also here:

 

American University historian Allan Lichtman has predicted the winner of the presidential popular vote every November since 1984

 

And his famous 2016 prediction that Mr. Trump would win, a prediction very few people made, was actually his one mistake. Mr. Trump lost the national popular vote to Hillary Clinton, though he won in the Electoral College.

 

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/sep/5/allan-lichtman-renowned-presidential-prognosticato/

Well, there must be some reason why American University retracted the claim that that's what Lichtman predicted. This was not an after-the-election retraction.  And, Victor Morton the Washington Times columnist, makes an assertion but doesn't back it up with evidence.

[Cameroni]

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Well, there must be some reason why American University retracted the claim that that's what Lichtman predicted. This was not an after-the-election retraction.  And, Victor Morton the Washington Times columnist, makes an assertion but doesn't back it up with evidence.

 

Indeed, clearly the most likely reason was that someone pointed out that actually Lichtman predicts the popular vote, not the electoral college , so when that was pointed out those writing the article wanted to ensure the article was still correct by making that edit.

 

But it would appear in his book Lichtman makes it clear that his 13 keys predict the popular vote.

 

That is most likely why Morton made the assertion, he had read the book and knew Lichtman predicts the popular vote.

 

See also here:

 

In 2016, Lichtman predicted a Trump victory using the Keys. However, Trump lost the popular vote, and Lichtman had previously clarified that the Keys only predicted the popular vote, not the Electoral College outcome. Lichtman claims that in 2016, he switched to predicting the outcome of the Electoral College,^[40] but this claim is not supported by his books and papers from 2016, which explicitly stated that the Keys predict the popular vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

 

 

^{So it's quite clear, Lichtman HAD predicted the popular vote in 2016, but then tried to pull a fast one and said actually he'd switched that year to predicting the electoral college, lol. However, the evidence does not support his claim.}

 

^{Bit of a shady character.}

 

 

[Jingthing]

I don't know about this popular vote vs. actual outcome controversy but I do know his current position recently stated is the truth that the popular national vote is irrelevant.

 

So as far as his current prediction it's only about the results, not the popular vote.

 

Of course there is zero chance Trump will win the popular vote. 

 

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Indeed, clearly the most likely reason was that someone pointed out that actually Lichtman predicts the popular vote, not the electoral college , so when that was pointed out those writing the article wanted to ensure the article was still correct by making that edit.

 

But it would appear in his book Lichtman makes it clear that his 13 keys predict the popular vote.

 

That is most likely why Morton made the assertion, he had read the book and knew Lichtman predicts the popular vote.

I think you should read the comment again. It runs exactly counter to what you are claiming:

This story has been updated with a correction. It has been corrected to read that Prof. Lichtman’s 13 Keys system predicts the winner of the presidential race, not the outcome of the popular vote.

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Indeed, clearly the most likely reason was that someone pointed out that actually Lichtman predicts the popular vote, not the electoral college , so when that was pointed out those writing the article wanted to ensure the article was still correct by making that edit.

 

But it would appear in his book Lichtman makes it clear that his 13 keys predict the popular vote.

 

That is most likely why Morton made the assertion, he had read the book and knew Lichtman predicts the popular vote.

 

See also here:

 

In 2016, Lichtman predicted a Trump victory using the Keys. However, Trump lost the popular vote, and Lichtman had previously clarified that the Keys only predicted the popular vote, not the Electoral College outcome. Lichtman claims that in 2016, he switched to predicting the outcome of the Electoral College,^[40] but this claim is not supported by his books and papers from 2016, which explicitly stated that the Keys predict the popular vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

 

 

^{So it's quite clear, Lichtman HAD predicted the popular vote in 2016, but then tried to pull a fast one and said actually he'd switched that year to predicting the electoral college, lol. However, the evidence does not support his claim.}

 

^{Bit of a shady character.}

 

 

Not only a shady character but a clairvoyant one, too.

[Wuvu2]

1 hour ago, proton said:

Lincoln was the worst president, his invasion of the CSA cost at least 600k American lives.

Do you have one of the pointy white hats?

[Cameroni]

Just now, placeholder said:

I think you should read the comment again. It runs exactly counter to what you are claiming:

This story has been updated with a correction. It has been corrected to read that Prof. Lichtman’s 13 Keys system predicts the winner of the presidential race, not the outcome of the popular vote.

 

I think you should read this:

 

In 2016, Lichtman predicted a Trump victory using the Keys. However, Trump lost the popular vote, and Lichtman had previously clarified that the Keys only predicted the popular vote, not the Electoral College outcome. Lichtman claims that in 2016, he switched to predicting the outcome of the Electoral College,^[40] but this claim is not supported by his books and papers from 2016, which explicitly stated that the Keys predict the popular vote.^[7][41]

 

^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House}

 

^{Lichtman tried to pull a fast one in 2016, doesn't exactly inspire confidence.}

[Cameroni]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I think you should read the comment again. It runs exactly counter to what you are claiming:

This story has been updated with a correction. It has been corrected to read that Prof. Lichtman’s 13 Keys system predicts the winner of the presidential race, not the outcome of the popular vote.

 

Yes, because Lichtman had claimed that to be the case, and these sub-standard academics had not bothered to check his books and papers.

 

However, the evidence does not support that Lichtman had switched from popular vote to electoral college in 2016.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Cameroni said:

 

I think you should read this:

 

In 2016, Lichtman predicted a Trump victory using the Keys. However, Trump lost the popular vote, and Lichtman had previously clarified that the Keys only predicted the popular vote, not the Electoral College outcome. Lichtman claims that in 2016, he switched to predicting the outcome of the Electoral College,^[40] but this claim is not supported by his books and papers from 2016, which explicitly stated that the Keys predict the popular vote.^[7][41]

 

^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House}

 

^{Lichtman tried to pull a fast one in 2016, doesn't exactly inspire confidence.}

I'm not going to continue with this as I noted when I first commented here I attach no importance to Lichtman's prediction. Unlike Fox News which did until the prediction was actually made.

[Cameroni]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I'm not going to continue with this as I noted when I first commented here I attach no importance to Lichtman's prediction. 

 

I think that's a very sage and wise decision.

[Lacessit]

57 minutes ago, proton said:

 

Should be pulled down, he was a tyrant and a traitor to the constitution, as well as a white supremacist Read some of his speeches eg 18th Sept 1858

 

I will say then that I am not, nor ever have been, in favor of bringing about in any way the social and political equality of the white and black races, [applause]-that I am not nor ever have been in favor of making voters or jurors of negroes, nor of qualifying them to hold office, nor to intermarry with white people; and I will say in addition to this that there is a physical difference between the white and black races which I believe will forever forbid the two races living together on terms of social and political equality. And inasmuch as they cannot so live, while they do remain together there must be the position of superior and inferior, and I as much as any other man am in favor of having the superior position assigned to the white race. 

I judge people on the basis of their character, not the color of their skin or the shape of their eyes. Such things are genetic adaptations to an environment.

 

Lincoln lived in a time when such science simply did not exist to inform him of his ignorance. Trump does not have that excuse.

[Peabody]

2 hours ago, proton said:

Harris is honestly the stupidest politician I have ever seen.

Let me tell you about a guy named George Santos.

[novacova]

22 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Welcome to Madame President Kamala Harris and First Gentleman Doug Emhoff!

 

 

You can take this to the bank.

You can ignore debates.

You can ignore polls.

It's over, baby! 

Good grief…how about a crystal ball, tarot card readings or the Psychic Friends Network with Dionne Warwick, have you given that a consider? Enough of this fantasy garbage already.

[proton]

47 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

I judge people on the basis of their character, not the color of their skin or the shape of their eyes. Such things are genetic adaptations to an environment.

 

Lincoln lived in a time when such science simply did not exist to inform him of his ignorance. Trump does not have that excuse.

 

Trump sees blacks as equals and treats them as such, so has no need for an excuse. Lincoln could have had congress free the slaves in the Union in 1861, but chose not to, slavery was still legal in some Union states. Lincoln is the President people make excuses for. Although a brilliant speaker he was a racist, even by the standards of the day. 

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, proton said:

 

Trump sees blacks as equals and treats them as such, so has no need for an excuse. Lincoln could have had congress free the slaves in the Union in 1861, but chose not to, slavery was still legal in some Union states. Lincoln is the President people make excuses for. Although a brilliant speaker he was a racist, even by the standards of the day. 

Three days before he met his destiny, Abraham Lincoln stepped through a door where no president had gone before—he openly supported the granting of political rights to African Americans. In this his last public address, the president commented on the Reconstruction of Louisiana and its impact on the newly emancipated and other persons of color. Despite demands from certain “Radical” Republicans in Congress and appeals from black elites in the state, in spite of a gentle and clandestine suggestion from the president himself, Louisiana had rejected the idea of African American inclusion in the body politic. Lincoln took the opportunity provided by those assembled in celebration of Lee’s surrender, to convey his belief that the right to vote be “now conferred on the very intelligent, and on those who serve our cause as soldiers.” Although disappointed by the state’s decision to deny suffrage, he remained hopeful that black men would soon be allowed to join their white counterparts in the exercise of one of the most sacred duties and rights of citizenship. Skulking in the crowd that night was John Wilkes Booth, who upon hearing Lincoln offer support for black voting rights supposedly exclaimed: “That means ni**er citizenship. No, by God! I’ll put him through. That is the last speech he will ever make.”

https://www.rbhayes.org/hayes/lincoln-s-evolving-racial-views/

[spidermike007]

Get used to saying President Harris. It was possible Trump could have turned this around. But, he has shown a complete inability to adapt (typical of very old fossilized dinosaurs) to Harris, picked the wrong VP candidate, and continues with his hatred, which is turning off independents. 

 

People have tired of his nonsense and his dumb tariff policies will be like raising taxes on Americans who are already hurting. 

 

See ya Don. Get ready for prison. 

 

[nobodysfriend]

Yeah , all this is very nice , but , after all , still only speculations ...

The polls show a narrow lead for the Harris / Walz team ,

But the trumpists are not far behind .

Too early to party ... ( brings bad luck ) .

 

[newnative]

19 hours ago, Berkshire said:

You don't understand?  I went to YOUR link and saw that chart/table for the first time and was able to figure it out.  Here's another explanation...from your link...

 

[The system consists of 13 true/false statements pertaining to circumstances surrounding a presidential election. If five or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.]

As always, a mighty and likely thankless  task to explain what is obvious and true to a Trump supporter.

[stoner]

10 hours ago, Cameroni said:

10 hours ago, placeholder said:

I'm not going to continue with this as I noted when I first commented here I attach no importance to Lichtman's prediction. 

 

I think that's a very sage and wise decision.

 

yet placeholder you argued about it until you were shown to be wrong. then you revert back to...... well i said its not important.

 

classic. 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, stoner said:

 

yet placeholder you argued about it until you were shown to be wrong. then you revert back to...... well i said its not important.

 

classic. 

Well, I agree that I argued about it too much. But that I was proved wrong, not so. And no, I'm not going to discuss it further.

[stoner]

10 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Well, I agree that I argued about it too much. But that I was proved wrong, not so. And no, I'm not going to discuss it further.

 

you WERE proven wrong. just accept it. not really that big a deal.  

[DougieMax]

What an awful shame for the human race if he turns out to be right. Most of her rabidly anti-Trump-inspired supporters will end up disappointed when they find out they were nothing more than disposaable brown-shirt useful idiots when the last "president" of the USA assumes office. Say goodbye to private property. Say goodbye to education. Say goodbye to religious freedom (if Christian). Say goodbye to free speech. Say goodbye to the ability to defend yourself. Say goodbye to equal protection under the law especially if you are white. And much much more. In addition, say hello to a shopping cart full of abominations and irrationality. Unfortunately, the Bible says these things have to happen, and it certainly looks like it is all going to get going in earnest.

 

As a final kicker, I found this list of current taxes. They will only want more and more and more of this going forward because supporting armies of third world thugs in UN uniforms to enforce the new rules will be expensive.

[Thingamabob]

12 hours ago, proton said:

 

Lincoln was the worst president, his invasion of the CSA cost at least 600k American lives.

Northern manufacturers were desperate to have access to the labourers who were working as slaves in the South.

[Thingamabob]

26 minutes ago, stoner said:

 

you WERE proven wrong. just accept it. not really that big a deal.  

Time to grow up 

[placeholder]

20 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

Northern manufacturers were desperate to have access to the labourers who were working as slaves in the South.

Another false apologetic defense on behalf of the Confederacy. There was no mass migration of blacks north after the war. So no shortage. The mass migration of blacks from the South to the North , known as the Great Migration, only began in about 1910.

Great Migration (African American)

From the earliest U.S. population statistics in 1780 until 1910, more than 90% of the African-American population lived in the American South,[6][7][8] making up the majority of the population in three Southern states, namely Louisiana (until about 1890[9]), South Carolina (until the 1920s[10]), and Mississippi (until the 1930s[11]). But by the end of the Great Migration, just over half of the African-American population lived in the South, while a little less than half lived in the North and West.[12] 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Migration_(African_American)