Baht becoming ridiculously strong

[KhunLA]

I got here in Sept 2000, so the first house build then was inexpensive $1/~฿40, and first car purchase in 2003, even better.   But as you can see, it's been 30-35 for quite some time.

 

I wouldn't be concerned unless it dips below 30 again.  Not that it really matters, since not buying any big ticket items in the future.

 

[John Drake]

6 hours ago, stoner said:

 

i would like to short your bet. 

 

And you would win! The baht I think has been strengthening over the past few months. So imports cheaper, yes?  Hmmm. I like to use Mission Wraps to make chicken wraps. Today, I went to buy some Chia and Quinoa Wraps. Last week they were 109 baht per package. Today, 118 baht. Some strong baht.

[John Drake]

2 hours ago, dddave said:

Not true.  You can draw up to 400,000 baht off your deposit 90 days after issuance of the extension. It must be fully replenished at least 60 days prior to next renewal.

 

Yes, you're correct. What I think happens mostly, however, is that people just park the 800K in an account and leave it there. They do so, because of the hassle of withdrawing and topping back up again. Second, it's also easy to make a mistake and drop below your 800K too early or too late and be forced to restart the entire visa process again. Third, you're going to need to deposit that missing 400K back into your account anyway, and when you do you're going to be doing so with devalued currencies PLUS you're going to need to pay a remittance tax on it now. Better to just keep the 800K there. Take anything out and then later redepositing it and you'll lose out even more.

[FritsSikkink]

17 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

Actually from early July to early August the Yen gained against the Baht, only after early August did it fall. In fact earlier in the year it was falling against the Baht when the other currencies you mentioned were not declining against the Baht.. So unlike the other currencies you mentioned the Yen's decline has not tracked those currencies fall against the Baht in the same way, it was going up when the others went down, and it went down when the others went up.

 

 

The AUD/THB also did not track the decline of the Chinese Yuan, CAD, Euro, but instead was going up against the Baht when the others were going down.

 

 

https://in.marketscreener.com/quote/currency/EURO-THAI-BAHT-EUR-THB-88940/graphics-comparison/

Nice graph, show that the earlier comment

"It's very simple. All the currencies of the world are valued against the dollar. If the dollar is strong, the other currency falls. If the dollar is weak, the other currency goes up,"

is not true.

[SingAPorn]

This will harshly harm tourism and exports. No problem, people will prefer to go to other countries in Asia to spend their money during the 3 or 4 month winter break.

[fulhamster]

On 9/6/2024 at 12:10 PM, gearbox said:

You mean the American toilet paper got cheaper? Have you had a look at your budget deficit? No wonder everyone is buying gold...looks like on its way to 3000.

No idea about the US of A. The GBP is at it;s strongest (despite Starmer) so why has the rate gone from close to 47 to 44 ?

[Andre0720]

7 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

 

Situated 14 km north of Patong it is considered the poor man's Surin Beach and is preferred by those who wish to avoid the  noise and congestion of Patong.

Do not embarrass yourself...

[mogandave]

6 hours ago, John Drake said:

 

Yes, you're correct. What I think happens mostly, however, is that people just park the 800K in an account and leave it there. They do so, because of the hassle of withdrawing and topping back up again. Second, it's also easy to make a mistake and drop below your 800K too early or too late and be forced to restart the entire visa process again. Third, you're going to need to deposit that missing 400K back into your account anyway, and when you do you're going to be doing so with devalued currencies PLUS you're going to need to pay a remittance tax on it now. Better to just keep the 800K there. Take anything out and then later redepositing it and you'll lose out even more.

And you have to park money somewhere. 

[BuddyPish]

On 9/6/2024 at 2:39 PM, Cameroni said:

 

If you want to know what people don't know about economics, you ask an economist. If you want to know how the economies of the world actually work you ask a FOREX trader. 

 

You can't trade Forex, unless you have an excedllent understanding of the fundamental underlying economic factors that affect currencies. 

 

 

Sorry but I'm afraid that's not true.
Forex traders trade solely on indicator-based technicals - most have no idea why price is doing what it's doing and even less understanding of economics.

The market is run by a highly sophisticated AI-controlled algorithm and it only moves up and down to absorb liquidity above old highs and below old lows and to rebalance inefficiencies in how price was delivered. When it's not doing that, it's trading sideways going nowhere.

 

[maesariang]

4 minutes ago, BuddyPish said:

Sorry but I'm afraid that's not true.
Forex traders trade solely on indicator-based technicals - most have no idea why price is doing what it's doing and even less understanding of economics.

The market is run by a highly sophisticated AI-controlled algorithm and it only moves up and down to absorb liquidity above old highs and below old lows and to rebalance inefficiencies in how price was delivered. When it's not doing that, it's trading sideways going nowhere.

 

That is not true. Some trade on fundamentals, some on technicals.

[BuddyPish]

19 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

 

Your position is based upon gold having a fixed supply. As has been pointed out,  supply and demand  is a major  factor in determining a commodity's value. Australia and Russia have the largest  gold reserves in the  ground (about 2/3 of the worlds unmined reserves),  If they so wanted either one of them could flood the market and crash the value of cold.  The US holds the largest gold reserves in the world, and if it wanted could release some gold and manipulate the  price of gold.  I offer that the value of gold is  inflated through manipulation. It is not as bad as the ridiculously false high value of diamonds, but it is there.

 

Some countries do not bother with gold reserves. It's an expense to hold and to store and for what? Gold is only one commodity. Canada does not have gold  reserves, although it has  about 6% of unmined world reserves. Its reasoning is sound. The country holds US$10+ billion in  foreign exchange reserves, consisting of a diverse number of foreign currencies. Canada also holds massive commodity reserves in oil & gas, lumber, minerals, water, food and power generation. The  Canadian government holds billions of assets in financial instruments that are used to  respond to market pressures. Gold is one single commodity. A basket of diverse valuable commodities spreads risk and is far better to respond to catastrophic  incidents. You can't eat gold, but you  will need electricity and   petro products to operate, and you will need potash to grow crops, fish to eat and lumber to build with etc. Modern wars are more likely to be fought over food, water and energy. They are not fought over gold.

 

 

 The Fed has repeatedly refused to allow an audit of its gold reserves, because it doesn't have them. The Fed has been using bullion bank proxies to manipulate gold prices for decades via naked shortselling on the COMEX. There are some seriously in-depth explanations online.

China has the largest reserves.
It's the largest producer in the world and it doesn't export and single ounce.
It's official reserves are considered laughably understated.
I wouldn't be surprised if it one day announced it has 20,000 tons of the stuff

[BuddyPish]

6 minutes ago, maesariang said:

That is not true. Some trade on fundamentals, some on technicals.

I'm not going to argue the point; it's a rabbit hole 

[Acharn]

On 9/6/2024 at 11:58 AM, Raindancer said:

Just doesn't make sense to me.

 

In simplistic terms, tourists get less for their exchange currency.   So, their spending power is less.

 

Exports cost more to other countries,  because they actually pay more for the same items, than when the exchange rate was more in their favour.

 

Or are those thought incorrect?

The people involved in foreign exchange trade are currently uncertain whether the Fed will cut the Prime Rate 0.50% or 0.25%. I've thought the U.S. dollar was overvalued for a few months, and that may contribute to the size of the loss. It's currently looking like a cut of 0.25% is more likely, so the dollar may go back up in a couple of weeks. Or not.

[riclag]

On 9/6/2024 at 12:05 PM, Cameroni said:

 

It's very simple. All the currencies of the world are valued against the dollar. If the dollar is strong, the other currency falls. If the dollar is weak, the other currency goes up, unless there are very particular reasons that prevent this. At the moment it is absolutely clear that the Fed will weaken the dollar, because they have said so and given big hints this will happen. They will cut interest rates, so this will weaken the dollar.

 

As a result the dollar is weakening at the moment. Therefore the Baht is going up. 

 

This will get worse, because when the interests rates are cut the dollar will fall more, so the Baht will go up further.

Wouldn’t you know it ! I was thinking of moving some  money here but now 

I have second thoughts .

[Cameroni]

52 minutes ago, BuddyPish said:

Sorry but I'm afraid that's not true.
Forex traders trade solely on indicator-based technicals - most have no idea why price is doing what it's doing and even less understanding of economics.

The market is run by a highly sophisticated AI-controlled algorithm and it only moves up and down to absorb liquidity above old highs and below old lows and to rebalance inefficiencies in how price was delivered. When it's not doing that, it's trading sideways going nowhere.

 

 

That's nonsense. No competent trader relies solely on technical trading, rather successful forex traders rely on both technical and fundamental info.

 

Obviously I'm not talking about algorithmic trading without humans.

[swissie]

I allow myself to copy and paste my thread "Ah... the US$":

Ah..... the US$.
US citizens investing in US Dollars must not read on. All others, not calling the US$ as "home currency" should read on.

No matter who wins in November, Democrats as well as Republicans have "economic growth" on their agenda. Sluggish domestic demand can only be offset by increasing Exports. Fastest way to do it: Make products cheaper by lowering the value of the currency. Therefore be prepared, that the positve yields that US equities offer today, will be greatly curtailed by a depreciating US$ versus your "home currency". Or even turn into "negative yields".

In the olden days, major currencies fluctuated maybe 5% per year against each other. Today this can happen within 2 months.
Due to this increased volatility, a "hedge" (insurance) against further US$ depreciation costs 5% per year. Crazy, but that says it all.
-----------------------------------------
I repeat my sermon. Democrats as well as Republicans want the Dollar lower. That is finally the deciding factor.

Most people insist, that the "FED" is detached from politics and therefore "an independent institution". Yep! But I also believe in Santa Claus.

 

[BuddyPish]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

 

That's nonsense. No competent trader relies solely on technical trading, rather successful forex traders rely on both technical and fundamental info.

 

Obviously I'm not talking about algorithmic trading without humans.

 

I trade forex and futures successfully; fundamentals don't figure in my trading and that of many of my peers; well, not in the way you're thinking at any rate. 

 

The surges up or down in price that can be seen after high impact news (the "fundamentals") like CPI, NFP, FOMC etc are all caused by manual manipulation of that algorithm by people you'll never see on CNBC or Bloomberg and they move the market to levels where it's advantageous for them to either accumulate new positions or to distribute positions they already hold. Once they're done, the algorithm goes back to doing what it does - running highs and lows and repricing to old inefficiencies.

 

Almost everyone thinks the markets move on news but it's the other way round; the news is fabricated to fit what the market has already done. 

 

The news we read the morning after big market moves is just the opinion of well-known talking heads because the public want an explanation. For example, if there's a 600 point plunge in the Dow Jones, people like Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan will opine "It's because investors are worried about the prospect of a recession" or "Speculators trimmed bets on the likelihood of a 50 basis points cut in the Fed Funds rate" but that has nothing to do with it. In actual fact, the market has simply reached a pivotal technical level and repriced aggressively.

 

 

[stoner]

23 minutes ago, BuddyPish said:

Almost everyone thinks the markets move on news but it's the other way round; the news is fabricated to fit what the market has already done.

 

buy the rumor... sell the news.

[Cameroni]

2 hours ago, BuddyPish said:

 

I trade forex and futures successfully; fundamentals don't figure in my trading and that of many of my peers; well, not in the way you're thinking at any rate. 

 

The surges up or down in price that can be seen after high impact news (the "fundamentals") like CPI, NFP, FOMC etc are all caused by manual manipulation of that algorithm by people you'll never see on CNBC or Bloomberg and they move the market to levels where it's advantageous for them to either accumulate new positions or to distribute positions they already hold. Once they're done, the algorithm goes back to doing what it does - running highs and lows and repricing to old inefficiencies.

 

Almost everyone thinks the markets move on news but it's the other way round; the news is fabricated to fit what the market has already done. 

 

The news we read the morning after big market moves is just the opinion of well-known talking heads because the public want an explanation. For example, if there's a 600 point plunge in the Dow Jones, people like Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan will opine "It's because investors are worried about the prospect of a recession" or "Speculators trimmed bets on the likelihood of a 50 basis points cut in the Fed Funds rate" but that has nothing to do with it. In actual fact, the market has simply reached a pivotal technical level and repriced aggressively.

 

 

 

That's what you claim, however, very successful Forex traders say that  understanding fundamentals is just as key as technical indicators and chart analysis.

 

I do agree with your last paragraph though, the news is indeed also made to fit what happened, to get some kind of explanation. However, the market does have real fundamentals, and those people who move the markets do not just place trades on a whim, they also consider the fundamentals of the economy.

 

 

[swissie]

2 hours ago, BuddyPish said:

 

I trade forex and futures successfully; fundamentals don't figure in my trading and that of many of my peers; well, not in the way you're thinking at any rate. 

 

The surges up or down in price that can be seen after high impact news (the "fundamentals") like CPI, NFP, FOMC etc are all caused by manual manipulation of that algorithm by people you'll never see on CNBC or Bloomberg and they move the market to levels where it's advantageous for them to either accumulate new positions or to distribute positions they already hold. Once they're done, the algorithm goes back to doing what it does - running highs and lows and repricing to old inefficiencies.

 

Almost everyone thinks the markets move on news but it's the other way round; the news is fabricated to fit what the market has already done. 

 

The news we read the morning after big market moves is just the opinion of well-known talking heads because the public want an explanation. For example, if there's a 600 point plunge in the Dow Jones, people like Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan will opine "It's because investors are worried about the prospect of a recession" or "Speculators trimmed bets on the likelihood of a 50 basis points cut in the Fed Funds rate" but that has nothing to do with it. In actual fact, the market has simply reached a pivotal technical level and repriced aggressively.

 

 

I partially agree. "pivot points" are of interest.

All technical indicators are in "ouverbought" territory. I don't need any algorism to tell me that. It won't be long and all technical indicators will be in "oversold territory". What tells your "algorism" to you, that my standart technical indicators don't tell me?

Warren Buffet is famous. You are not. Why not?

 

[chiang mai]

5 hours ago, BuddyPish said:

 

I trade forex and futures successfully; fundamentals don't figure in my trading and that of many of my peers; well, not in the way you're thinking at any rate. 

 

The surges up or down in price that can be seen after high impact news (the "fundamentals") like CPI, NFP, FOMC etc are all caused by manual manipulation of that algorithm by people you'll never see on CNBC or Bloomberg and they move the market to levels where it's advantageous for them to either accumulate new positions or to distribute positions they already hold. Once they're done, the algorithm goes back to doing what it does - running highs and lows and repricing to old inefficiencies.

 

Almost everyone thinks the markets move on news but it's the other way round; the news is fabricated to fit what the market has already done. 

 

The news we read the morning after big market moves is just the opinion of well-known talking heads because the public want an explanation. For example, if there's a 600 point plunge in the Dow Jones, people like Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan will opine "It's because investors are worried about the prospect of a recession" or "Speculators trimmed bets on the likelihood of a 50 basis points cut in the Fed Funds rate" but that has nothing to do with it. In actual fact, the market has simply reached a pivotal technical level and repriced aggressively.

 

 

This is chicken and egg to some degree, which came first, the technical parameters or the socio/economic activities in the world. Tea leaves are good because they can tell you stuff, same with graphs and charts, if you know what you're reading and to read them in context.

 

The realities of the world and the behaviour of people drive markets, technical parameters merely overlay them with great scope for flexibility and interpretation. But technical parameters are not something to be read in isolation, even if some are able to use them with successful outcomes from time to time.

[Cameroni]

7 hours ago, chiang mai said:

But technical parameters are not something to be read in isolation, even if some are able to use them with successful outcomes from time to time.

 

Exactly this, some traders only rely on technicals and can have a measure of success for some time. However, truly successful traders don't just rely on technicals.

 

Take one of the most famous Forex trades of all time, when George Soros broke the bank of England. Soros did not just use technicals, rather he understood the fundamentals, that the British government would not be able to defend the pound and went on a gigantic short of the Pound.

 

This would not have been possible with mere chart analsysis.

[BuddyPish]

10 hours ago, swissie said:

I partially agree. "pivot points" are of interest.

All technical indicators are in "ouverbought" territory. I don't need any algorism to tell me that. It won't be long and all technical indicators will be in "oversold territory". What tells your "algorism" to you, that my standart technical indicators don't tell me?

Warren Buffet is famous. You are not. Why not?

 

Warren Buffett isn't a "trader". He's a long-term investor.

 

As for your indicators, those things are crutches.

They mathematically crunch old data and spit out an overbought or oversold value.
Most of the time, they're inaccurate
 

[Patong2021]

18 hours ago, Andre0720 said:

Do not embarrass yourself...

Yu wrote Kamala. The only Kamala I am aware of is a beachside community on Phuket. I don't see the relationship of the town to the baht strengthening. Thailand has been amassing a great deal of foreign exchange. In case you missed it, the country  managed its expenditures cautiously during the Covid crisis and made allowances for the loss of tourism revenues. Now those revenues  are back and the country has not drawn down on the reserves that have been growing.

[BuddyPish]

57 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Exactly this, some traders only rely on technicals and can have a measure of success for some time. However, truly successful traders don't just rely on technicals.

 

Take one of the most famous Forex trades of all time, when George Soros broke the bank of England. Soros did not just use technicals, rather he understood the fundamentals, that the British government would not be able to defend the pound and went on a gigantic short of the Pound.

 

This would not have been possible with mere chart analsysis.

 

That's a reasonable argument but Soros wasn't your run-of-the-mill currency trader. The ERM Norman Lamont was trying to keep sterling in was a construct; it wasn't something related to fundamentals like the UK's GDP or inflation. 

It's also worth remembering that back then, the Bank of England wasn't independent.

At that time, the Chancellor of the Exchequer set interest rates for political reasons as much as for economic ones.

[Cameroni]

2 hours ago, BuddyPish said:

 

The ERM Norman Lamont was trying to keep sterling in was a construct; it wasn't something related to fundamentals like the UK's GDP or inflation. 

 

That's wrong. The ERM was very much related to fundamentals like inflation.

 

Whilst under Lawson the British had shadowed the Deutschmark as an indicator to inflation, John Major's decision to join ERM was precisely to formalise this with the aim of keeping inflation down. 

 

"In 1989, the UK had inflation three times the rate of Germany, higher interest rates at 15%, and much lower labour productivity than France and Germany, which indicated the UK's different economic state in comparison to other ERM countries".

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

 

That was the whole reason why the high interest rates the Bundesbank set for the ERM were not suitable for the UK, or Italy, at the time. However, due to national prestige, the Brits could not admit they made a mistake and their economy was to weak to keep pace with Germany, so their ability to adjust interet rates was inhibited.

 

George Soros understood that the Brits had made a mistake by bringing the pound into the ERM at too high a rate, that inflation was too high in the UK at triple the German rate and  the UK interst rates were hurting UK asset prices. The Italians had solved the problem by devaluing the Lira, however, the British thought this would cause further inflation for the pound, if it were devalued, which was correct.

 

The remarks by the Bundesbank that there would have to be further devaluations set off a selling spree of the pound. The Brits tried to prop it up with buying interventions but did not succeed. They then raised the interest rate to tempt buyers to buy the pound, that too did not work.

 

So ultimately Britain had to leave the ERM which is what Soros understood to be the most likely outcome and he made billions on this bet.

 

As you can see, the ERM was highly related to inflation, and understanding all the fundamentals around the situation of the pound allowed Soros to make this bet. He had an edge. 

 

This is what truly successful traders try to do, to understand fundamentals in a way that allows them to predict what will happen. They then place trades based on that plan. They hold those trades for a long time. They are not day traders.

 

 

Edited September 8 by Cameroni

[BuddyPish]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

 

 

 

This is what truly successful traders try to do, to understand fundamentals in a way that allows them to predict what will happen. They then place trades based on that plan. They hold those trades for a long time. They are not day traders.

 

 

 

Precisely, they are not daytraders

They don't pay mind to the daily fluctuations like I do . . . but those daily fluctuations are what determine the exchange rate between currencies holidaymakers, expats, exporters, importers and everyone else pay or receive.

 

[Andre0720]

4 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

Yu wrote Kamala. The only Kamala I am aware of is a beachside community on Phuket. I don't see the relationship of the town to the baht strengthening. Thailand has been amassing a great deal of foreign exchange. In case you missed it, the country  managed its expenditures cautiously during the Covid crisis and made allowances for the loss of tourism revenues. Now those revenues  are back and the country has not drawn down on the reserves that have been growing.

Ok, so my apologies

I just thought that just about all the world (exaggeration here) knew Kamala Harris.

 

Kamala Harris: The Vice President

The White House (.gov)

Kamala D. Harris is the Vice President of the United States of America. She was elected Vice President after a lifetime of public service, 

 

And Kamala Harris appears so stupid when she speaks, that I was suggesting that her presence as a vice-president of the US was enough to to bring down the value of the US dollar, and making the Thai baht stronger as a result.

 

So my laconic reply did not go well with you...

[retarius]

On 9/6/2024 at 11:51 AM, MalcolmB said:

So my 800,000 baht in my retirement visa fund has gone up in value even more.

 

Thankyou Thailand! 

probably because we have Thaksin back in charge I am guessing?

Don't worry the crash is just around the corner. The economic. policy statement prioritising 'marriage equality' doesn't inspire confidence. 

[Patong2021]

6 hours ago, Andre0720 said:

Ok, so my apologies

I just thought that just about all the world (exaggeration here) knew Kamala Harris.

 

Kamala Harris: The Vice President

The White House (.gov)

Kamala D. Harris is the Vice President of the United States of America. She was elected Vice President after a lifetime of public service, 

 

And Kamala Harris appears so stupid when she speaks, that I was suggesting that her presence as a vice-president of the US was enough to to bring down the value of the US dollar, and making the Thai baht stronger as a result.

 

So my laconic reply did not go well with you...

 

The claims that she is stupid come only from supporters of Trump. Aside from being childish, it is not based on fact. The candidate  is not elected nor even close to being elected yet. There hasn't been any event or statement from the candidate that would negatively impact the currency valuation. The Trump campaign insists that Trump is in the lead, so there should be no Harris impact. You can't have it both ways.

And  really, it is very childish to  call  the candidate stupid. She did not get where she is by being stupid. She made it through undergraduate and law school, and successfully reached multiple positions of higher office.  How far did you get with an education and have you ever managed a large legal team and been held accountable for the results?