Baht's Biggest Surge Since 1998 Poses Risk to Tourism And Exports

[chiang mai]

45 minutes ago, cedel said:

But if a part of those 130, 000+ has to pay lawyers, accountants, and several tens or hundreds of thousands bahts every year that they did not pay in taxes+fees before because they still have income sources abroad mostly in their home country from house /condo renting or else. I'm not sure the majority will agree to stay in a country where they pay more taxes than in their home country where it's maybe tax-free or where they have other exemptions not taken in account in Thailand 🇹🇭 !! 

If, if, if!

 

Most retirees have simple tax needs plus most people who have commented on the negative tax impact, haven't done the math. There will be some who need to reorganise their wealth and maybe even their living arrangements but for the vast majority, there's no impact. For most people this is a fear of the unknown issue and not real.

 

 

[cedel]

1 minute ago, chiang mai said:

If, if, if!

 

Most retirees have simple tax needs plus most people who have commented on the negative tax impact, haven't done the math. There will be some who need to reorganise their wealth and maybe even their living arrangements but for the vast majority, there's no impact. For most people this is a fear of the unknown issue and not real.

 

 

"As the saying says" Better safe than sorry "... 

[Rolo89]

7 minutes ago, mikebell said:

When I came here 20 years ago, I got 73 to 1 UKP. I used to import 5K = 350,000 baht regularly.  I spent freely; a new car every 3 years; an expensive house/furniture/clothes; meals out in top restaurants; etc.

Now I have an ailing 8 year old car; a rented property; cook all my meals at home; and check supermarket prices to save a baht here & there.  Any further attacks on my income will drive me to the Philippines where I will unfreeze my UK State pension and receive the equivalent of a 450,000 baht increase in my annual income.

Agree, those days of the early 2000s wont be back but Thailand needs to understand with every year it has less pull factors.

 

Being treated like a 3rd class citizen was acceptable when there were loads of other benefits to the country, but those have rapidly diminished.

 

 

[chiang mai]

Just now, cedel said:

"As the saying says" Better safe than sorry "... 

You think too much.

[Bday Prang]

33 minutes ago, mdr224 said:

Those who save in bitcoin are unaffected

Has bitcoin suddenly become non fluctuating ?  It was worth  $71000 back in march and was around $46000 just a couple of weeks ago, currently  around $62000    certainly appears to be plenty of scope to be negatively "affected" 

[ozz1]

If the government keeps borrowing money surely the baht will drop its happened every where else  and what happened to the huge reserves they had  fun times indeed

[cedel]

3 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

If, if, if!

 

Anyway, it's not an "if", it's a fact... : nobody or much less foreigners dare to engage in buying condos without knowing exactly at what sauce they will be eaten next year or in the next few years! 

😥😢

 

 

 

[BerndD]

2 hours ago, Luuk Chaai said:

Wise is currently @ 32.92   ouch !

oh.   and the Fed.. did already drop the rate..

and who can we thank for this ?

https://www.bidenomics.com/

 

And the €uro also lost nearly 2 Baht. Thanks to bidenomics? I think you lost 100%, but in yiur brain!

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, cedel said:

 

 

[itsari]

12 minutes ago, mikebell said:

When I came here 20 years ago, I got 73 to 1 UKP. I used to import 5K = 350,000 baht regularly.  I spent freely; a new car every 3 years; an expensive house/furniture/clothes; meals out in top restaurants; etc.

Now I have an ailing 8 year old car; a rented property; cook all my meals at home; and check supermarket prices to save a baht here & there.  Any further attacks on my income will drive me to the Philippines where I will unfreeze my UK State pension and receive the equivalent of a 450,000 baht increase in my annual income.

The 73 baht to 1 pound lasted for just a short period of your 20 years in Thailand and fell to around 50 baht in 2009 . Meaning you have suffered a lower pound rate for 17 years .

[Surasak]

2 hours ago, hotchilli said:

The beers are not expensive, the wages are very low.

Push wages up and the prices follow.

[KannikaP]

1 hour ago, yankee99 said:

yes if importers want to pass the saving or increase profits . Petrol has already dropped from 39 to 35

 

 

Diesel hasn't. Been 33.37 per litre all this year in my neck of the woods.

[soalbundy]

1 hour ago, cedel said:

But if a part of those 130, 000+ has to pay lawyers, accountants, and several tens or hundreds of thousands bahts every year that they did not pay in taxes+fees before because they still have income sources abroad mostly in their home country from house /condo renting or else. I'm not sure the majority will agree to stay in a country where they pay more taxes than in their home country where it's maybe tax-free or where they have other exemptions not taken in account in Thailand 🇹🇭 !! 

I doubt returning to western nations is the answer, one may pay less tax (or not) but the cost of living, especially housing would negate any advantage, also there are now less and less tax free havens combined with a low cost of living. Many, like myself, who have family here can't just up sticks and move, I will just have to submit.

[Unamerican]

51 minutes ago, Bday Prang said:

Am I "confused"  or was I dreaming?

Sounds good: your memory agrees very much with the historical record. 

[hotchilli]

1 hour ago, itsari said:

A rather naive answer. 

The beer for 60 baht is very expensive if the majority of Thai people are on a low wage.

The price of the beer is at a competitive price.. it is not expensive

if you cannot afford it, it means you don't make enough money

[hotchilli]

42 minutes ago, Surasak said:

Push wages up and the prices follow.

I agree it's a vicious cycle.

But wages are out of sync from the cost of living

[metisdead]

Troll posts trolling about Trump and the replies have been removed.

Edited September 21 by metisdead

[LukKrueng]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

reaching levels last seen during the 1998 Asian financial crisis

Until 30th June 1997 the THB was linked to the USD at a rate of about 25:1 as a directive of the government 13 years prior.

When the banks reopened at the beginning of July 97 the THB depreciated to about 27:1 and kept depreciating to approx 57:1. Later it started gaining to 4x:1. So the level we see now is nothing like 1998.

[Thingamabob]

1 hour ago, Bday Prang said:

Strangely I remember things a little differently .  I was getting 90+ baht to the pound in 1998 but  before that it was around 40

Am I "confused"  or was I dreaming?

Not dreaming. The 1998 crash meant that, for a while, the value of our inward remittances doubled, as did our spending power.

[spidermike007]

This not due to a stable and efficient economy here. There are many factors pointing at major economic issues. Exports are down, new and used car sales are way down, property sales are down, and consumer confidence is down. If the baht remains at these levels for a sustained period, there will be damage. Tourism will likely suffer. So will exports. 

[CallumWK]

1 hour ago, Bday Prang said:

Strangely I remember things a little differently .  I was getting 90+ baht to the pound in 1998 but  before that it was around 40

Am I "confused"  or was I dreaming?

 

No, you are trolling, because you got that 90+ baht for a few days only.

 

The average exchange rate in 1998 was 68 Baht.

 

https://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/etc/GBPpages.pdf

[black tabby12345]

High THB causes concern, impact on the tourism.

Dilemma is, More Tourist Arrival, Higher THB Goes UP.

While Foreign visitors  are here, they change their money into THB(cash, debit/credit card).

Whatever their method is, they are selling own countries' currencies to buy THB.

Current situation is just the same s mass THB buying by tens of millions of crowds.

That is the one of the driving forces  behind  stronger Thai Baht.

 

While there are also other factors that lead to this phenomenon.

Such as;

1-Lowering inflation rate(August figure is 0.35%; 0.83% in July).

Currencies  of the countries with the high inflation usually go down; the opposite is happening here now.

 

2-Current Account Surplus: Thailand is strongly in Black.

 

3-Tightening monetary policy by the central bank of Thailand.

Stability of financial system is seemingly the top priority above economic  boom.

 

 

Edited September 21 by black tabby12345

[J Branche]

When THD the Thai Etf came up on my screen for being up 14% in one month I knew there is concern.

 

Wise did say they are lowering their fees to Thailand.  Not that it will help much.

[chiang mai]

2 minutes ago, black tabby12345 said:

High THB causes concern, impact on the tourism.

Dilemma is, More Tourist Arrival, Higher THB Goes UP.

While Foreign visitors  are here, they change their money into THB(cash, debit/credit card).

Whatever their method is, they are selling own countries' currencies to buy THB.

Current situation is just the same s mass THB buying by tens of millions of crowds.

That is the one driving force behind  stronger Thai Baht.

 

 

The Baht itself is not strengthening, it's only USD that's weakening, there is no economic reason why THB should strengthen anyway.

 

Tourists selling their respective home currencies against THB doesn't cause THB to strengthen. It's only when USD is sold against THB that happens. And tourists who sell USD for THB are far and few between, most of the USD that is sold for THB comes from the settlement of export bills which are denominated in USD. So when Thailand exports something overseas, a majority of the trade bills involve USD in settlement.

 

 

[chiang mai]

39 minutes ago, LukKrueng said:

Until 30th June 1997 the THB was linked to the USD at a rate of about 25:1 as a directive of the government 13 years prior.

When the banks reopened at the beginning of July 97 the THB depreciated to about 27:1 and kept depreciating to approx 57:1. Later it started gaining to 4x:1. So the level we see now is nothing like 1998.

More precisely, THB was hard pegged to USD under IMF rules, it was the releasing of that peg that cause THB to float.

[itsari]

1 hour ago, hotchilli said:

I agree it's a vicious cycle.

But wages are out of sync from the cost of living

Agree that wages are out of sync with cost of living wich brings things back to the beer is too expensive for the majority of Thais.

[G Rex]

1 hour ago, KannikaP said:

Diesel hasn't. Been 33.37 per litre all this year in my neck of the woods.

 

Diesel prices do not fluctuate like petrol prices, because the cost of diesel is capped by the Government. It was capped at 32 baht for the last few years, but must have been raised lately, because I have seen prices creep up a bit in my area too...

[Celsius]

3 hours ago, Sig said:

Definitely preferred the early 2000s when it was over 40 THB to 1 USD. Those were very good times.

 

And Canadian peso was worth the same as US dollar today.

[Sydebolle]

Well, exports are dying as well. But it is more noteworthy to quote tourism as that is, where the goons in Bangkok want to introduce a landing tax upon arrival in the land and likewise, they are toying around with taxation of retirees pensions et al. 

Make up your mind but even in Thailand you cannot have your cake and eat it. Give a potential tourist or retiree a reason why to come to Thailand with fees and taxes while their currency's values go through the roof and the West is in a huge crisis? 

[300sd]

2 hours ago, Bday Prang said:

Has bitcoin suddenly become non fluctuating ?  It was worth  $71000 back in march and was around $46000 just a couple of weeks ago, currently  around $62000    certainly appears to be plenty of scope to be negatively "affected" 

Yes good point. Bitcoin is more of a trading vehicle. Although gold is going up in most major currencies around the world, it has been fairly stable in Thai baht the last 5 months or so. If one purchased gold in Thai baht 10 yrs ago then it has been a good saving vehicle. It's doubled.