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Will White Women Shift Away from Republicans to Support Kamala Harris in 2024?


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For decades, white women have been a crucial voting bloc for the Republican Party, helping to secure victories in many presidential elections. In 2016, Donald Trump won 47% of the white female vote, and by 2020, that figure rose to 53%. But as the 2024 election approaches, there's growing speculation that this reliable support might be weakening, particularly among younger white women who are moving left. With Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, some wonder whether this demographic will finally shift in favor of the Democrats, joining women of color who have long supported the party.

 

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Several factors may play a role in shaping the decisions of white female voters in 2024. One of the most significant is the overturning of *Roe v. Wade* in 2022, which transformed abortion rights into a major election issue. Harris, the first woman of color to be a major-party presidential candidate, brings additional momentum to the Democratic campaign, potentially energizing younger voters. Melissa Deckman, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute, notes that "young women of color and young white women are pretty uniformly liberal and feminist," and that Harris’s nomination is likely to enhance their enthusiasm for voting.

 

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The generational divide among white women is becoming more pronounced. Younger white women, particularly from Generation Z, are increasingly secular, queer, and delaying marriage—factors linked to more liberal political beliefs. According to Gallup, liberal identification among white women has risen by 6% since 2011. Chloe Fowler, a 23-year-old Democrat from Nebraska, reflects this leftward shift, recalling how Trump’s 2016 win motivated her political engagement. Fowler, now a vice president of Nebraska Young Democrats, explains that events like the Women's March solidified her commitment to progressive values.

 

However, the question remains whether this movement among younger white women is strong enough to significantly alter the overall voting trends. Historically, white women have shown loyalty to the Republican Party, and while younger generations may lean Democratic, older white women are likely to remain a GOP stronghold. Polls indicate a possible narrowing of the gap, but not a complete reversal. A September 2024 poll from 19th News/SurveyMonkey found white women narrowly favoring Harris over Trump, 42% to 40%, but the margin of error makes it clear the race remains close.

 

Jane Junn, a political science professor, cautions against overstating the gender gap in this election, noting that it is more accurately described as a "race gap." While women overall may support Harris—54% of women polled plan to vote for her compared to 40% of men—white women are less likely to make a dramatic shift away from Republicans. Junn emphasizes that many white women voters continue to prioritize traditional Republican issues such as the economy and immigration, areas where Trump maintains a significant edge.

 

Despite these complexities, Harris does have an advantage on issues like reproductive rights and democracy. Many moderate white women, who are pivotal in swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, are split on their support between Harris and Trump. Jackie Payne, executive director of Galvanize Action, highlights that while economy and democracy are top concerns, many women will refuse to vote for a candidate who opposes abortion rights. This is particularly relevant in key battleground states with abortion-related measures on the ballot.

 

In states like Ohio, where white women have supported both abortion rights and Republican candidates, the 2024 election could see split-ticket voting, with women supporting abortion-related measures while also casting votes for GOP candidates. This nuanced behavior reflects the complexity of white women’s voting patterns, which may not neatly align with a party’s stance on a single issue.

 

Ultimately, the 2024 election will likely hinge on turnout. The Democratic Party has long relied on women, particularly Black women, to secure victories. Debbie Walsh of Rutgers’ Center for American Women and Politics underscores the importance of mobilizing this base: "The Democratic Party counts on women. They count particularly on Black women to turn out. Will they be more energized?" As the election approaches, it remains to be seen whether younger white women will fully break from their older counterparts and reshape the political landscape—or if the GOP can maintain its hold on this crucial demographic.

 

Based on a report from The Guardian 2024-10-10

 

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Ya think?lol of course in droves and droves + a lot of us guys who love women and don’t appreciate what he’s done to them!trumps dead he just doesn’t know it yet!

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I can forgive women for voting democrat because its in some of their best interests to be able to have abortions. For men though there is no excuse other than low test, especially white men.

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