The Outcomes I Am Anticipating...

[RSD1]

Trump will likely declare victory in the presidential election by 10 PM Eastern Time tonight.

 

By 8 PM Eastern Time tomorrow night, the media should have enough data on electoral college results to project a probable winner. Violence will be minimal—very minimal. After January 6, few are willing to risk facing similar consequences, and Washington, D.C., is prepared if unrest does occur.

 

Using the 2020 election timeline as a guide, the official declaration of the winner will likely come on Saturday.

 

Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign of misinformation regarding the election results and claims of a stolen election will begin in earnest tomorrow. Trump and his legal team will likely contest the outcome, potentially attempting to escalate the issue to the Supreme Court. Elon Musk may play a significant financial role in supporting these challenges. However, if the precedent from 2020 holds, the Supreme Court will probably decline to hear the case. And any of Trump's legal actions against any of the seven swing states will go nowhere as it went nowhere last time. 
 

Eventually, Musk’s behind-the-scenes support of Trump may come under federal scrutiny, possibly leading to an investigation and even an indictment.

 

By Saturday, confirmation that Kamala Harris will become the 47th president of the United States is likely. Life will continue as usual, with no major riots or civil war. Trump, already an elderly man, will fade from the political spotlight. However, he will continue to make headlines as he faces ongoing criminal proceedings. Later this month, on the 29th, he is expected to be sentenced in New York for his 34-count felony conviction. 

 

The severity of Trump’s sentencing will likely depend on the extent of any illegal attempts he makes to overturn the election between now and his sentencing date. The greater the threat he poses to a smooth and peaceful transfer of power, the harsher his sentence may be.

 

After Harris is declared the winner, Trump is likely to use his lawyers and a new team of fake electors to attempt blocking the certification of the election results in January. However, by that time, Trump may already be under some form of house incarceration based on his NY sentencing later this month and, what failed to work to overturn the election results in 2020, is even less likely to succeed in 2024.

 

Meanwhile, history will be made and the USA will have their first Black, Indian, and female president. A monumental and triumphant moment for humankind. 
 

Edited November 5 by RSD1

[mogandave]

That’s hilarious.

[RSD1]

1 minute ago, mogandave said:

That’s hilarious.

Indeed. Truth is often much funnier than fiction.

What are your predictions?

[Captain Monday]

GOP lawfare has already begun.

 

"Before voters even begin casting ballots, Democrats and Republicans are engaged in a sprawling legal fight over the 2024 election through a series of court disputes that could even run past Nov. 5 if results are close.

 

Republicans filed more than 100 lawsuits challenging various aspects of vote-casting after being chastised repeatedly by judges in 2020 for bringing complaints about how the election was run only after votes were tallied."

 

https://fox59.com/news/politics/ap-politics/ap-voting-related-lawsuits-filed-in-multiple-states-could-be-a-way-to-contest-the-presidential-election/

[RSD1]

1 minute ago, Captain Monday said:

GOP lawfare has already begun.

 

"Before voters even begin casting ballots, Democrats and Republicans are engaged in a sprawling legal fight over the 2024 election through a series of court disputes that could even run past Nov. 5 if results are close.

 

Republicans filed more than 100 lawsuits challenging various aspects of vote-casting after being chastised repeatedly by judges in 2020 for bringing complaints about how the election was run only after votes were tallied."

 

https://fox59.com/news/politics/ap-politics/ap-voting-related-lawsuits-filed-in-multiple-states-could-be-a-way-to-contest-the-presidential-election/

I wouldn't focus too much on the legal and court cases. They seem to be a normal thing.
 

Back in 2020 they just filled the media with an easy way to reload the news cycle on a daily basis but, in the end, materially they were all just a nothing burger. Such will be the same in 2024.

[mogandave]

13 minutes ago, RSD1 said:

Indeed. Truth is often much funnier than fiction.

What are your predictions?

I say Trump wins the popular, and loses the electoral and it takes two week to settle. 

[RSD1]

4 minutes ago, mogandave said:

I say Trump wins the popular, and loses the electoral and it takes two week to settle. 

I would be really surprised if he wins the popular. He might've picked up a few more young male voters than he had the last time, but I think he's alienated a lot more women, Blacks, and Hispanics and I think he will get even less of the popular vote than last time.
 

It could take two weeks to settle, it could even take longer. That part is hard to predict, but we would know the actual outcome much sooner. I was only suggesting that we would have the official outcome on Saturday based on 2020, the last presidential election.

[mogandave]

1 minute ago, RSD1 said:

I would be really surprised if he wins the popular. He might've picked up a few more young male voters than he had the last time, but I think he's alienated a lot more women, Blacks, and Hispanics and I think he will get even less of the popular vote than last time.
 

It could take two weeks to settle, it could even take longer. That part is hard to predict, but we would know the actual outcome much sooner. I was only suggesting that we would have the official outcome on Saturday based on 2020, the last presidential election.

He’ll do a good bit better with blacks and hispanics than he dis last time, which helps a lot in NY, CA & IL. 

 

He’ll get more votes than he did in 2020, and Harris will get less than Biden got. 

[Patong2021]

At this time, I can only state the obvious.  Harris will win the popular vote. I am not confident I can predict the electoral college result.

It is going to drag out for weeks. The USA will conduct itself like a developing nation that cannot offer properly run elections.

One takeaway is that the US approach to running federal elections is inefficient, and guarantees dispute. There is no consistency in voting rules and how the process  is executed. Each state has its own rules and each state is subject to potential political influence. Americans really should be ashamed of themselves that they let it get this bad.  

 

 

 

[RSD1]

11 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

At this time, I can only state the obvious.  Harris will win the popular vote. I am not confident I can predict the electoral college result.

It is going to drag out for weeks. The USA will conduct itself like a developing nation that cannot offer properly run elections.

One takeaway is that the US approach to running federal elections is inefficient, and guarantees dispute. There is no consistency in voting rules and how the process  is executed. Each state has its own rules and each state is subject to potential political influence. Americans really should be ashamed of themselves that they let it get this bad.  

The federal election system in the US is indeed in shambles. And the fact that elections are decided based on the electoral college is one of the biggest structural flaws imaginable and yet they've done nothing to reform that.
 

But you will constantly hear Americans saying the greatest country on earth, with the greatest electoral system, and the strongest democracy. That was all conceived from the belief of American exceptionalism, which was a propaganda theory that they're started after World War II. At this point, it's far from the truth. At least many other countries are more honest. Many are as bad as the US, but they don't pretend that they are better. 
 

Why not predict the electoral college result too? In a worst-case scenario you're wrong. No big deal.
 

Everything I've just written above has a chance of being wrong too. But it's good to lay out your cards and see how they play out. Nothing ventured nothing gained.

 

Edited November 5 by RSD1

[frank83628]

1 hour ago, RSD1 said:

Trump will likely declare victory in the presidential election by 10 PM Eastern Time tonight.

 

By 8 PM Eastern Time tomorrow night, the media should have enough data on electoral college results to project a probable winner. Violence will be minimal—very minimal. After January 6, few are willing to risk facing similar consequences, and Washington, D.C., is prepared if unrest does occur.

 

Using the 2020 election timeline as a guide, the official declaration of the winner will likely come on Saturday.

 

Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign of misinformation regarding the election results and claims of a stolen election will begin in earnest tomorrow. Trump and his legal team will likely contest the outcome, potentially attempting to escalate the issue to the Supreme Court. Elon Musk may play a significant financial role in supporting these challenges. However, if the precedent from 2020 holds, the Supreme Court will probably decline to hear the case. And any of Trump's legal actions against any of the seven swing states will go nowhere as it went nowhere last time. 
 

Eventually, Musk’s behind-the-scenes support of Trump may come under federal scrutiny, possibly leading to an investigation and even an indictment.

 

By Saturday, confirmation that Kamala Harris will become the 47th president of the United States is likely. Life will continue as usual, with no major riots or civil war. Trump, already an elderly man, will fade from the political spotlight. However, he will continue to make headlines as he faces ongoing criminal proceedings. Later this month, on the 29th, he is expected to be sentenced in New York for his 34-count felony conviction. 

 

The severity of Trump’s sentencing will likely depend on the extent of any illegal attempts he makes to overturn the election between now and his sentencing date. The greater the threat he poses to a smooth and peaceful transfer of power, the harsher his sentence may be.

 

After Harris is declared the winner, Trump is likely to use his lawyers and a new team of fake electors to attempt blocking the certification of the election results in January. However, by that time, Trump may already be under some form of house incarceration based on his NY sentencing later this month and, what failed to work to overturn the election results in 2020, is even less likely to succeed in 2024.

 

Meanwhile, history will be made and the USA will have their first Black, Indian, and female president. A monumental and triumphant moment for humankind. 
 

Pass the pipe

[gamb00ler]

20 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

There is no consistency in voting rules and how the process  is executed.

I fail to understand why consistency matters.  As long as each state has well defined regulations, procedures to implement them and trained staff, it should be fine.  There's more than one way to skin a cat.

 

20 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

Each state has its own rules and each state is subject to potential political influence. 

How will having the US Federal government in charge of federal elections eliminate "potential political influence" more so than can be done at the state level?  It seems that corrupting a single federal government agency would be easier than corrupting several key state government agencies.  A conspiracy is best kept as small as possible.

[frank83628]

29 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

At this time, I can only state the obvious.  Harris will win the popular vote. I am not confident I can predict the electoral college result.

It is going to drag out for weeks. The USA will conduct itself like a developing nation that cannot offer properly run elections.

One takeaway is that the US approach to running federal elections is inefficient, and guarantees dispute. There is no consistency in voting rules and how the process  is executed. Each state has its own rules and each state is subject to potential political influence. Americans really should be ashamed of themselves that they let it get this bad.  

 

 

 

And why can't the US get the biggest election result sorted. 4 years in the making, the best, strongest freeist country in the world, all the world watching, but the winner might not be announced for days, seems kind of suspect to me, making them selves a laughing stock while possible cheating going on.

Paper ballots with ID required, anyone against that wants to cheat, no other reason

[G_Money]

1 hour ago, RSD1 said:

Trump will likely declare victory in the presidential election by 10 PM Eastern Time tonight.

 

By 8 PM Eastern Time tomorrow night, the media should have enough data on electoral college results to project a probable winner. Violence will be minimal—very minimal. After January 6, few are willing to risk facing similar consequences, and Washington, D.C., is prepared if unrest does occur.

 

Using the 2020 election timeline as a guide, the official declaration of the winner will likely come on Saturday.

 

Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign of misinformation regarding the election results and claims of a stolen election will begin in earnest tomorrow. Trump and his legal team will likely contest the outcome, potentially attempting to escalate the issue to the Supreme Court. Elon Musk may play a significant financial role in supporting these challenges. However, if the precedent from 2020 holds, the Supreme Court will probably decline to hear the case. And any of Trump's legal actions against any of the seven swing states will go nowhere as it went nowhere last time. 
 

Eventually, Musk’s behind-the-scenes support of Trump may come under federal scrutiny, possibly leading to an investigation and even an indictment.

 

By Saturday, confirmation that Kamala Harris will become the 47th president of the United States is likely. Life will continue as usual, with no major riots or civil war. Trump, already an elderly man, will fade from the political spotlight. However, he will continue to make headlines as he faces ongoing criminal proceedings. Later this month, on the 29th, he is expected to be sentenced in New York for his 34-count felony conviction. 

 

The severity of Trump’s sentencing will likely depend on the extent of any illegal attempts he makes to overturn the election between now and his sentencing date. The greater the threat he poses to a smooth and peaceful transfer of power, the harsher his sentence may be.

 

After Harris is declared the winner, Trump is likely to use his lawyers and a new team of fake electors to attempt blocking the certification of the election results in January. However, by that time, Trump may already be under some form of house incarceration based on his NY sentencing later this month and, what failed to work to overturn the election results in 2020, is even less likely to succeed in 2024.

 

Meanwhile, history will be made and the USA will have their first Black, Indian, and female president. A monumental and triumphant moment for humankind. 
 

Great fiction but back to reality 

 

 

[RSD1]

18 minutes ago, G_Money said:

Great fiction but back to reality 

Let's see. I've hung my hat out there so you can fact check me later. 
 

So let's have your predictions too. 

[RSD1]

25 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

Pass the pipe

Who you gonna pipe? Male or female?

[G_Money]

2 minutes ago, RSD1 said:

Let's see. I've hung my hat out there so you can fact check me later. 
 

So let's have your predictions too. 

Already posted.

Edited November 5 by G_Money

[RSD1]

21 minutes ago, G_Money said:

 

2% interest rates only punishes people saving for their future. 

[G_Money]

10 minutes ago, RSD1 said:

2% interest rates only punishes people saving for their future. 

I disagree 

 

That quote was for mortgage rates.  2.65 in January, 2021

Edited November 5 by G_Money

[RSD1]

17 minutes ago, G_Money said:

Already posted.

Posted telepathically?

[RSD1]

34 minutes ago, G_Money said:

I disagree 

 

That quote was for mortgage rates.  2.65 in January, 2021

That's when the Fed funds rate was 0%. That's economically unsustainable. If inflation is at 2% then the federal funds rate should be around 3%. Interest rates should always be around 1% higher than inflation. That's what keeps inflation in check.

 

By the end of next year, the Fed interest rate should be back down at around 3% based on rate cuts between now and the end of 2015. Mortgage rates should only be a bit higher then.

 

Edited November 5 by RSD1

[Patong2021]

36 minutes ago, gamb00ler said:

I fail to understand why consistency matters.  As long as each state has well defined regulations, procedures to implement them and trained staff, it should be fine.  There's more than one way to skin a cat.

 

How will having the US Federal government in charge of federal elections eliminate "potential political influence" more so than can be done at the state level?  It seems that corrupting a single federal government agency would be easier than corrupting several key state government agencies.  A conspiracy is best kept as small as possible.

 

Consistency is the cornerstone of due process.  The current US methodology allows too much discretionary power to be applied by an individual Secretary of State which can result in an abuse of power. Under the current  approach, there is no guarantee that politicians will not use the law to interfere in the fair administration of an election. We have seen this in the past when some Americans were prevented from voting. Today, we hear of stories of unauthorized people being registered to vote. This is not a Democrat v.Republican issue, as the concerns raised by both political factions are legitimate. 

 

The US Federal Government  need not necessarily be in charge of a federal election. In well managed democracies there are independent non partisan electoral Commissions responsible for the running of a national election. examples are Electoral Commission UK,  Elections Canada, Australian Electoral Commission etc. All of these entities have an unblemished record of running fair and transparent elections and are distinguished by the high level of confidence the public has in the  organizations. If these countries can run non sectarian, non partisan elections, surely the USA can too, or are you implying that  Americans are not mature enough or not trustworthy enough to  do so?   Political interference should be taken out of the administration of an election. 

[cdnvic]

This is an interesting topic. Don't ruin it with insults, which were removed. Today's a big day in politics and I know many of you are looking forward to discussing it at length, so please be civil. It's not the day that political enthusiasts want to get a silence, but we will hand them out if people don't act civil to one another.

[RSD1]

Just now, cdnvic said:

This is an interesting topic. Don't ruin it with insults, which were removed. Today's a big day in politics and I know many of you are looking forward to discussing it at length, so please be civil. It's not the day that political enthusiasts want to get a silence, but we will hand them out if people don't act civil to one another.

Thank you. I started this topic to encourage open discourse, not to criticize anyone for their perspective. It would be great if supporters on both sides could discuss this respectfully and without insults.

[Rhys]

The females will prevail, except in Sports...now

[RSD1]

He's now claiming he may not declare victory tonight. But that's what he did do in 2020 when he lost. Let's see what happens in another 8 hours. 
 

 

[RSD1]

He's also saying no violence. January 6th anyone?
 

With the leaders of the proud boys and the oath keepers in jail it certainly helps though. 

 

 

[Kinnock]

A few years ago I did that mid-life crisis thing of riding a Harley across North America, and based on the people I met, I think Trump will win.  

 

Everyone I met on my trip was friendly and hospitable, but the standards of education, critical thinking and international outlook was much more divided than we see in Thailand.  The more 'worldly' outlook was confined to the coastal regions of the East and West, and that big region between the coasts was very different.

 

As foreigners we're exposed to the people and culture of the East and West coastal regions, but the rest of the country is very different, and that's where Trump gets traction.

[RSD1]

9 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

A few years ago I did that mid-life crisis thing of riding a Harley across North America, and based on the people I met, I think Trump will win.  

 

Everyone I met on my trip was friendly and hospitable, but the standards of education, critical thinking and international outlook was much more divided than we see in Thailand.  The more 'worldly' outlook was confined to the coastal regions of the East and West, and that big region between the coasts was very different.

 

As foreigners we're exposed to the people and culture of the East and West coastal regions, but the rest of the country is very different, and that's where Trump gets traction.

The United States has always been that way. That's nothing new at all. The more educated people live in the big coastal cities. And the wealthy states on the coasts are also where the biggest and most respected institutions of education are located. 

 

That means the USA was also like that in 2020 when Trump lost. Trump also lost the popular vote both in 2016 and 2020, despite all those relatively uneducated people that you met. And the Democrats have won many elections, not just in 2020. So basing it on the people that you met during a cross country motorcycle ride through the rural parts of the USA is anecdotal.
 

It seems Kamala has enough support to win both the popular vote and the electoral vote. But we will know more soon.

[Gsxrnz]

R:287 D:251

 

AZ GA NC PA to The Republicans

 

NV WI MI to The Democrats

 

Nevada could go Republican, so maybe R:293 D:245

Edited November 5 by Gsxrnz