Is Weed Prohibition Over?

[RSD1]

Ever since the very tall guy was shown the door, and after Tony and Annie sung karaoke together for a weekend up at Annie's ranch, I haven't heard another peep about threatening any new laws or changes in legislation, classification or usage types that would result in shutting down all the herb shops and making recreational cannabis illegal again.
 

So is that it? Done and dusted? Good riddance and all that? Thus, a stoner is what a stoner does in Thailand and everything is back on track with the "don't worry be happy" program?

 

[Wuvu2]

The cake is only half-baked.  Some regulations are needed for the industry to mature. The biggest players are still on the sideline waiting for the long-term regulatory issues to be settled. Eventually, 7-11 will be the go-to place for processed packaged weed and all the little guys will be out-priced and out-regulated. We're in the days-between. Just enjoy it 😉

[RSD1]

Just now, Wuvu2 said:

The cake is only half-baked.  Some regulations are needed for the industry to mature. The biggest players are still on the sideline waiting for the long-term regulatory issues to be settled. Eventually, 7-11 will be the go-to place for processed packaged weed and all the little guys will be out-priced and out-regulated. We're in the days-between. Just enjoy it 😉

It seems more like that perhaps they have bigger fish to fry at this point. The local economy is going pear shaped, tourism still isn't back as strong as it once was, and personal debt is through the roof.
 

I don't think they have the luxury at this point of just flushing $1+ billion industry down the toilet. Even though the government isn't making any money in tax from it, nor are the big players capitalizing on it, but it's keeping money moving around in the economy, which is something that they really need right now. 

[BritManToo]

22 minutes ago, Wuvu2 said:

The cake is only half-baked.  Some regulations are needed for the industry to mature. The biggest players are still on the sideline waiting for the long-term regulatory issues to be settled. Eventually, 7-11 will be the go-to place for processed packaged weed and all the little guys will be out-priced and out-regulated. We're in the days-between. Just enjoy it 😉

Enjoying my 5bh/g weed, all the talk of new laws just lowered the price.

[RSD1]

6 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Enjoying my 5bh/g weed, all the talk of new laws just lowered the price.

I don't see how the two are connected. Lower prices normally occur either from oversupply, too much competition, or not enough demand. It's possibly a combination of those 3 at this point. 

[BritManToo]

7 minutes ago, RSD1 said:

I don't see how the two are connected. Lower prices normally occur either from oversupply, too much competition, or not enough demand. It's possibly a combination of those 3 at this point. 

I assumed they're dumping their stock in case it becomes worthless on Jan 1st.

 

Fear of new laws is endemic at the moment,

I didn't buy a new car this year because they might have taxed me on the transfer of money. And the Thai car industry is crashing (so other expats must be also fearing the law).

 

And wanting my UK bank details, I'll be in the Philippines before I agree to that,

Which'll be another Thai bank house foreclosure, a single mom and a fatherless kid.

 

The Thai government seem hell bent on economic suicide at the moment.

[RSD1]

Just now, BritManToo said:

I assumed they're dumping their stock in case it becomes worthless on Jan 1st.

It would probably go the other way. It would all go underground and become more expensive again. Black market is always more expensive than free market. 

[Wuvu2]

9 minutes ago, RSD1 said:

Black market is always more expensive than free market. 

 

Not with heavily taxed and regulated products. Black market weed in California is 1/4 the price of store-bought weed which is subject to massive regulation and tax. I do agree that a glut of unregulated producers and oversupply is what's driving the price down.

[RSD1]

14 hours ago, Wuvu2 said:

 

Not with heavily taxed and regulated products. Black market weed in California is 1/4 the price of store-bought weed which is subject to massive regulation and tax. I do agree that a glut of unregulated producers and oversupply is what's driving the price down.

It’s true. Taxes and regulations can make legal stuff more expensive. But it’s hard to predict how that would play out in Thailand. Especially if there no longer is any legal recreational stuff at all. 

[blaze master]

19 hours ago, Wuvu2 said:

 

Not with heavily taxed and regulated products. Black market weed in California is 1/4 the price of store-bought weed which is subject to massive regulation and tax. I do agree that a glut of unregulated producers and oversupply is what's driving the price down.

 

Bingo. Mix in cheap labor costs with some brown envelopes and chongs your uncle

 

[Wuvu2]

6 hours ago, RSD1 said:

It’s true. Taxes and regulations can make legal stuff more expensive. But it’s hard to predict how that would play out in Thailand. Especially if there no longer is any legal recreational stuff at all. 

 

There have been two years for the supply pipeline to develop legally. All my suppliers work by LINE, and I've bought less than 5 grams at stores since legalization. If weed were re-criminalized it would be the biggest pre-established black market pipeline of any product I can think of in history. 

 

When alcohol prohibition came to pass in the USA, it meant shutting down a relatively small number of huge producers. Thai police don't have the resources to shut down Thai weed production now. Prohibition would be an unenforceable nightmare and a cash drain on the legal system. I fully expect that instead it will be taxed and turned into a revenue stream. The toothpaste ain't going back into the tube 😁

[RSD1]

1 hour ago, Wuvu2 said:

 

There have been two years for the supply pipeline to develop legally. All my suppliers work by LINE, and I've bought less than 5 grams at stores since legalization. If weed were re-criminalized it would be the biggest pre-established black market pipeline of any product I can think of in history. 

 

When alcohol prohibition came to pass in the USA, it meant shutting down a relatively small number of huge producers. Thai police don't have the resources to shut down Thai weed production now. Prohibition would be an unenforceable nightmare and a cash drain on the legal system. I fully expect that instead it will be taxed and turned into a revenue stream. The toothpaste ain't going back into the tube 😁

Personally, I don’t think anything will change materially at all at this point. As you mentioned, the distribution channels and connections between growers, vendors, and buyers are already well-established. It’s too late to regulate and try and tax it now. I also don’t think many people really care anymore. Those who once opposed it seem to have grown accustomed to the status quo. What we’ll likely see are a few ambiguous laws added to the books for appearances’ sake, but with little to no enforcement, meaning things will essentially remain the same.

[Wuvu2]

7 minutes ago, RSD1 said:

Personally, I don’t think anything will change materially at all at this point. As you mentioned, the distribution channels and connections between growers, vendors, and buyers are already well-established. It’s too late to regulate and try and tax it now. I also don’t think many people really care anymore. Those who once opposed it seem to have grown accustomed to the status quo. What we’ll likely see are a few ambiguous laws added to the books for appearances’ sake, but with little to no enforcement, meaning things will essentially remain the same.

 

I think there's an enormous international opportunity for the big guys like CP who will pressure the government into some formal regulations that open the door to safe mega-investments. I think there will be some regulation of the storefront and street vendors as well, but I don't think they're going to be able to put much of a damper on recreational weed smoking. I think we're going in circles agreeing with each other 🙄

[ElwoodP]

Off topic post about the EU removed.

[Thingamabob]

On a minor note I used to be able to buy cannabis infused drinks at 7-11 and Villa in Bangkok, but now only at Big C. Are there any other outlets these days ?

[RSD1]

7 hours ago, Wuvu2 said:

 

I think there's an enormous international opportunity for the big guys like CP who will pressure the government into some formal regulations that open the door to safe mega-investments. I think there will be some regulation of the storefront and street vendors as well, but I don't think they're going to be able to put much of a damper on recreational weed smoking. I think we're going in circles agreeing with each other 🙄

I doubt big players like CP, Central, and the other biggest successful business families really want in on this business. For one, they are making lots of money already from their core businesses and they don't need it. Also, it's not their thing. Many of them also have large business investments in China and some of the other countries in the region. China, Singapore and Japan all have strict laws against cannabis use as well. I don't think it would look good for any of them politically for their business relationships to get involved in what might be viewed as increasing "the illegal regional drug trade" in Asia. 

[Dogmatix]

The best way for Thailand to go, given that some sort of regulation is required for political reasons, would be something like California when medical marijuana was first legalised.  You would need a doctor's prescription allowing you to buy what you wanted valid for a year or something. Hopefully tourists would also be eligible for these prescriptions and they would be available from licensed herbal doctors as well as regular doctors, who might not be keen to issue prescriptions.  

[Dogmatix]

1 hour ago, RSD1 said:

I doubt big players like CP, Central, and the other biggest successful business families really want in on this business. For one, they are making lots of money already from their core businesses and they don't need it. Also, it's not their thing. Many of them also have large business investments in China and some of the other countries in the region. China, Singapore and Japan all have strict laws against cannabis use as well. I don't think it would look good for any of them politically for their business relationships to get involved in what might be viewed as increasing "the illegal regional drug trade" in Asia. 

 

Totally agree it is not CP's thing. The damage to their image in the places you mention would not be worth the incremental profits.

[RSD1]

5 hours ago, Dogmatix said:

 

Totally agree it is not CP's thing. The damage to their image in the places you mention would not be worth the incremental profits.

 

Beyond CP, I don’t believe any of Thailand’s major Chinese-Thai business families, those controlling the country’s largest industries such as alcohol, life insurance, tourism, hotels, shopping malls, residential real estate, duty-free, concrete, steel, etc are interested in the cannabis business. These families are typically conservative and likely opposed to cannabis altogether.

 

As for the powerful figures in uniform, those interested and involved with the cannabis trade are likely the same ones already tied to Thailand’s broader illicit drug industry. Many of them are likely dealing in large-scale cannabis operations and are mainly "exporting". However, I doubt they have any interest in entering the local retail cannabis market. With prices dropping to ฿20–฿30 per gram, there’s little profit left in retail. The domestic cannabis market has become a highly competitive, fragmented business where each player is only carving out a small slice of the pie.

 

Given this, I see no reason why the dynamics of the industry should change. It will likely continue as it is, as any changes to the current laws wouldn’t benefit anyone. Moreover, there’s little appetite to revert to policies that would once again fill jails with cannabis-related offenders.

 

The only group truly missing out is the government, which had hoped to eventually benefit from taxation and regulation. However, it’s too late for them to insert themselves into the equation now. As I mentioned earlier, the window of opportunity for the government to get in on the game has closed.