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Posted

However, unofficially, there are claims that the real rate is closer to an eye-watering 40%, leaving some to worry that the dark spectre of hyperinflation is back.

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Posted
15 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Yes, because you lack the cognitive ability to recognise it……… :coffee1:

Really...................😂

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Posted
14 hours ago, theblether said:

 

You made that up in your head. I know no one that thinks Ukraine is winning. Everybody agrees its a stalemate. 

 

Going back to the topic - if Trump floods Europe with American energy, that will cause serious damage to the Russian economy. 

 

However, I think the war will be over before that energy surge arrives. 

Strange stalemate when Russia is advancing. I always thought a stalemate was when neither side was winning, but I guess it's meaning has changed for the Ukraine war.

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Posted
14 hours ago, theblether said:

However, I think the war will be over before that energy surge arrives. 

On that I can agree with you. Eventually Zelensky will go cap in hand to try and salvage something from the rubble ( or he'll run off to enjoy his loot and someone else will get to do that ).

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Posted
4 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

 

And the repercussions will be felt for decades to come - the Russian youth, desperately needed to propel the nation's industrial base forward against an increasingly more capable world, is being lost. While the rest of the world continues to grow and develop and innovate, Russia persists in continuing this slow motion seppuku.

 

Russian youth is already lost. The population is forecast to drop by 22 million in the next 25 years. 

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Posted

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/01/27/7495467/index.amp
 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2005845/russian-economy-bankruptcies-ukiraine-war/amp
 

Russian economy meltdown with 'moment of truth' and 'major bankruptcies' looming

 

Russia's economy is "reaching a crisis stage" and facing its "moment of truth", an expert hs warned, with pressure mounting on Vladimir Putin.

Businesses and consumers have been hit by a double whammy of spiralling inflation and high interest rates.

With interest rates at a record high of 21%, businesses in particular are struggling to pay back bank loans, with many reportedly facing bankruptcy.

Anders Åslund is a renowned Swedish economist and author with a detailed understanding of the Russian economy.

In an article for Project Syndicate, he argued Russia was heading for stagflation, meaning high inflation combined with minimal growth.

 

 

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Posted

Strained by these factors, the Russian economy is approaching its moment of truth,” Åslund wrote.

"Inflation will continue to rise in 2025, and people will get even angrier over higher food prices.

"Major bankruptcies are looming, and the Russian state cannot afford large bailouts.

 

"Business leaders are fiercely objecting to high interest rates, and the shortage of labor – and soldiers – is reaching a crisis stage."

 

The war in Ukraine is causing both soaring prices and labour shortages.

At the same time the Kremlin is struggling to raise funds for its ballooning defence budget through taxes and bond offerings.

Putin is increasingly having to dip into Russia's National Wealth Fund, whose reserves have plummeted almost 74% from £94 billion to just £25 billion, since the beginning of the war.

A further problem for the Kremlin is the rouble's plunge in value, which is adding to inflationary pressure.

Western sanctions are also hindering the ability of Russian companies to continue producing vital goods.

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Posted
2 hours ago, MicroB said:

Some interesting expert viewpoints on Russian Barrier Troop deployments in Southern Ukraine:

 

You act like Russians setting up blocking positions for their own troops is something new.

 

Thats what Russians do.

Posted
3 hours ago, MicroB said:

The US didn't go to "conquer Afghanistan". They went to support the Northern  Alliance against the Taliban

It has been suggested that the CIA did not intend that the Russians would fail entirely, but wanted to bleed them for as long as possible, and that policy was probably working well till Gorbachev took over and withdrew the Russians from Afghanistan.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cyclone

At a 30 March meeting, U.S. Department of Defense representative Walter B. Slocombe "asked if there was value in keeping the Afghan insurgency going, 'sucking the Soviets into a Vietnamese quagmire?'"[18] When asked to clarify this remark, Slocombe explained: "Well, the whole idea was that if the Soviets decided to strike at this tar baby [Afghanistan] we had every interest in making sure that they got stuck."

 

 

It's a pity that they supported the wrong alliance, having backed the Pakistani choice, as we know how that turned out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cyclone

Of the seven mujahideen groups supported by Zia's government, four espoused Islamic fundamentalist beliefs—and these fundamentalists received most of the funding.

Posted

Multiple off topic posts and replies have been removed, topic is not about WW2, Afghanistan or British and American troops:

 

Russia’s economy is doomed

"Smoke me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast!"

Arnold Judas Rimmer of Jupiter Mining Corporation Ship Red Dwarf

Posted

Russia, and its economy is in deep do-do. Russia's demographic situation is terrible, same problem in China, Japan and South korea etc. If you want to look into the falling population crisis in places like Russia, then go watch some of the geopolitical anaysis by Peter Zeihan on YouTube... very good stuff.

As for Russia's economy, it's got to the point where it can't really afford to lose the war, or win it. If it loses the war, then it's done, if it wins the war, then it can't afford to rebuild the territory it has taken and its war economy will suddenly wind down creating havoc. Many observers are saying that Russia is suffering from what is known as "Dutch disease" (basically, the sudden rapid over-development and reliance on/of one sector of an economy, like natural resourses, at the decline of others... thus sparking lots of problems). There is also a problem of brain drain in Russia as all the well-educated scientists and engineers from the Soviet times and quality educational institutions from back in the day are dying out, and the Russian universities are not what they used to be.

The economy is Putin's achillies heel because if the oligarths and elites aren't making money, then he's not upholding his end of the deal, which was that you can get rich and keep it if you stay out of politics. On top of that, it is the intelligence agencies like the FSB who decide what happens and who runs what (and Putin is from that group too). If the elites and intelligence agencies decide Putin is no longer their man... well, anything could happen.

Russia's economy is overheating due the churning military producion industrial complex and inflation is way out of control, probably a lot worse than official figures say, and the currency is becoming worthless... with China and its Yuan that can only help so far as the Chinese are worried about secondary sanctions being placed on it.

Russia is in big trouble and it is a vast country to hold together with so many minorities that are hardly in love with Moscow. Russia could easily fragment into like 30 countries if it goes properly south.

However, this is all of Putin's own making due to him chasing the long held ambitions of previous rulers of Russia... all about securing the entry points to the vast open plains and steppes of central Russia. Russia has long sort natural barriers as protection from invasion, and during the Soviet Union's time they controlled all of them (think there are 7). This is why the Russians are so interested in the Caucuses as that is one, Moldova is another and that's on the other side of Ukraine, Poland and Estonia are another (think the Suwalki Gap to Kaliningrad etc.). It is these places Putin wants to control as it then makes invasion of the Russian interior almost impossible and this is what is fueling the Russian aggression... look what happened in Operation Barbarossa in WW2.

Why now? Putin knows that time is running out and that the demographic and economic time bomb will mean that delay will equal they won't be able to do it later, it's try now or it will never happen.

"Times they are a changin" and the newer generations aren't interest in imperial conquest so much... look how many young and talented Russians have fled as they have no interest in war.

There are few things as dangerous as the nostalgia of old men.

Posted

Wrong definition of Dutch disease. Appreciate the rest of your post though.

From Wikipedia.

Dutch disease is an economic phenomenon where a sudden increase in a country's natural resource wealth leads to a decline in other sectors, particularly manufacturing, due to currency appreciation and reduced export competitiveness. This situation can result in long-term economic challenges once the resource wealth diminishes.

Posted

panic over low birthrate

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2008606/russia-plunging-fertility-rate/amp
 

 

According to the United Nations, Russia's fertility rate is 1.42 children per woman, below the 2.1 per woman needed to maintain a population.

Despite having one of the largest populations in the world at approximately 144 million people, it has one of the lowest global fertility rates.

The World Bank, meanwhile, reported that in the first half of 2024 only 599,600 children were born in Russia, 16,000 fewer than in 2023 and the lowest overall number for 25 years.

Putin recently suggested Russian women should have larger families - with as many as eight children - and lawmakers have floated the idea of a tax on childlessness.

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Posted

Ukrainian defense forces have consistently struck Russian oil refineries,

 

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/comment/strikes-on-refineries-create-collapse-in-1738348003.html
 

Ukrainian defense forces have consistently struck Russian oil refineries, nearly causing a collapse in the country’s oil and gas industry, said aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap in a commentary to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.

"The Russians have the Ust-Luga terminal, which was struck last year, and for a while it was closed, but in May they reopened it. And now, these strikes we've delivered on the refineries... Ryazan Refinery is about 18 million tons per year, Kstovo Refinery is 17 million, Volgograd Refinery is about 14 million tons," he listed

Kryvolap detailed that Russia’s total refining capacity is 340-380 million tons per year, with about 54% of that processed. The strike on the oil pumping station at Ust-Luga has halted operations, demonstrating the effectiveness of Ukrainian defense forces’ efforts.

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