Russia’s economy is doomed

[3NUMBAS]

However, unofficially, there are claims that the real rate is closer to an eye-watering 40%, leaving some to worry that the dark spectre of hyperinflation is back.

[Gweiloman]

12 hours ago, theblether said:

 

You made that up in your head. I know no one that thinks Ukraine is winning. Everybody agrees its a stalemate. 

 

Going back to the topic - if Trump floods Europe with American energy, that will cause serious damage to the Russian economy. 

 

However, I think the war will be over before that energy surge arrives. 

By “everybody” I’m assuming you mean the pro-Ukrainian faction. A stalemate means neither side is gaining any ground. However even a poster on here that is fighting over there concedes that Ukraine is losing ground, slowly but surely. And if you watch news from sources other than western msm, you will also realise that Russia is gaining more ground towards Dnipropetrovsk. But believe whatever you like.
 

 

12 hours ago, Seppius said:

 

Yes, on the battlefield it's stalemate, meanwhile Russia is losing thousands of troops a week still to the meatgrinder, while gaining little land and Ukraine is slowly destroying infrastructure and moral inside Russia on a daily basis.

 

Russia will never win anything out of this conflict now, too late

 

 

Yes, western msm reports that Russia is losing thousands of troops a week. Sounds like you believe those reports. In case you’re interested, I have a bridge for sale…

[transam]

15 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Yes, because you lack the cognitive ability to recognise it……… 

Really...................😂

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, theblether said:

 

You made that up in your head. I know no one that thinks Ukraine is winning. Everybody agrees its a stalemate. 

 

Going back to the topic - if Trump floods Europe with American energy, that will cause serious damage to the Russian economy. 

 

However, I think the war will be over before that energy surge arrives. 

Strange stalemate when Russia is advancing. I always thought a stalemate was when neither side was winning, but I guess it's meaning has changed for the Ukraine war.

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, theblether said:

However, I think the war will be over before that energy surge arrives. 

On that I can agree with you. Eventually Zelensky will go cap in hand to try and salvage something from the rubble ( or he'll run off to enjoy his loot and someone else will get to do that ).

[transam]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

On that I can agree with you. Eventually Zelensky will go cap in hand to try and salvage something from the rubble ( or he'll run off to enjoy his loot and someone else will get to do that ).

I think it is you that wishes that, your weird agenda.............

[RuamRudy]

16 hours ago, Seppius said:

 

Yes, on the battlefield it's stalemate, meanwhile Russia is losing thousands of troops a week still to the meatgrinder, while gaining little land and Ukraine is slowly destroying infrastructure and moral inside Russia on a daily basis.

 

Russia will never win anything out of this conflict now, too late

 

 

 

And the repercussions will be felt for decades to come - the Russian youth, desperately needed to propel the nation's industrial base forward against an increasingly more capable world, is being lost. While the rest of the world continues to grow and develop and innovate, Russia persists in continuing this slow motion seppuku.

[theblether]

4 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

 

And the repercussions will be felt for decades to come - the Russian youth, desperately needed to propel the nation's industrial base forward against an increasingly more capable world, is being lost. While the rest of the world continues to grow and develop and innovate, Russia persists in continuing this slow motion seppuku.

 

Russian youth is already lost. The population is forecast to drop by 22 million in the next 25 years. 

[rabas]

Here's your sign.

 

A recent video of Putin meeting heads of academia exposes how isolated and fearful he has become. In it, he calls for Muscovites (an big part of his support base) to receive salaries on par with top Universities!  He then asks how much that is and is shocked by the low answer exclaiming that's  impossible and argues repeatedly. Watch his face and the attendees' laughter.

 

Conclusion, Putin is badly out of touch and is also increasingly concerned about his support.  Ordinary Russian's can't overthrow Putin but their suffering can encourage those who can like the top military leadership whom he has been attacking. 

 

The clock is ticking.

[3NUMBAS]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/01/27/7495467/index.amp
 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2005845/russian-economy-bankruptcies-ukiraine-war/amp
 

Russian economy meltdown with 'moment of truth' and 'major bankruptcies' looming

 

Russia's economy is "reaching a crisis stage" and facing its "moment of truth", an expert hs warned, with pressure mounting on Vladimir Putin.

Businesses and consumers have been hit by a double whammy of spiralling inflation and high interest rates.

With interest rates at a record high of 21%, businesses in particular are struggling to pay back bank loans, with many reportedly facing bankruptcy.

Anders Åslund is a renowned Swedish economist and author with a detailed understanding of the Russian economy.

In an article for Project Syndicate, he argued Russia was heading for stagflation, meaning high inflation combined with minimal growth.

 

 

[3NUMBAS]

Strained by these factors, the Russian economy is approaching its moment of truth,” Åslund wrote.

"Inflation will continue to rise in 2025, and people will get even angrier over higher food prices.

"Major bankruptcies are looming, and the Russian state cannot afford large bailouts.

 

"Business leaders are fiercely objecting to high interest rates, and the shortage of labor – and soldiers – is reaching a crisis stage."

 

The war in Ukraine is causing both soaring prices and labour shortages.

At the same time the Kremlin is struggling to raise funds for its ballooning defence budget through taxes and bond offerings.

Putin is increasingly having to dip into Russia's National Wealth Fund, whose reserves have plummeted almost 74% from £94 billion to just £25 billion, since the beginning of the war.

A further problem for the Kremlin is the rouble's plunge in value, which is adding to inflationary pressure.

Western sanctions are also hindering the ability of Russian companies to continue producing vital goods.

[TedG]

The war is almost three years old.   Putin failed to conquer Ukraine.  

 

 

[TedG]

18 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Similarly, Russia didn’t set out to conquer Ukraine. That was merely western propaganda to try and claim some sort of hollow victory. I’m surprised you can’t see that. Did I tell you that I have a bridge for sale?

Putin did set out to conquer Ukraine.   You know it and it and I know it. 

[MicroB]

20 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

After 20 years, the US failed to conquer Afghanistan because they didn’t set out to do so. Similarly, Russia didn’t set out to conquer Ukraine. That was merely western propaganda to try and claim some sort of hollow victory. I’m surprised you can’t see that. Did I tell you that I have a bridge for sale?

 

 

The US didn't go to "conquer Afghanistan". They went to support the Northern  Alliance against the Taliban. They successfully instilled a Northern Alliance government. Subsequently, Afghanistan had several elections and changes of government. The USSR actually went to conquer Afghainistan in 1979, using Spetznatz to wipe out the existing presidency.

 

Putin;s war aims were to topple the Kyiv government and take over Ukraine as a client state. During the original Russian debacle, Russian supply convoys were intercepted containing, of all things, dress uniforms, intended for a victory parade through Kyiv. Russian officers had also placed dinner reservations in the city. Among the troops captured in that invasion wave were OMON and SOBR troops. OMON is a gendarmerie in Russia, used for  riot duty. Back in those days, we thought this nonsense would have been ended, because among these POWs were a pair of pretty sensible OMON officers, a grizzled Colonel (Lt. Col. Astakhov Dmitry Mikhailovich) and a wounded Major. Both were clearly police professionals, who had been deployed to Belarus with Russian troops to support an exercise, so were somewhat puzzled about what subsequently happened. Among the kit captured was OMON issue riot gear, with Russia anticipating the need to suppress civil unrest. The full plan by OMON and SOBR to decapitate Kyiv is remarkable (https://thedebrief.org/know-no-mercy-the-russian-cops-who-tried-to-storm-kyiv-by-themselves/)

 

Putin fully intended to conquer Ukraine. You are an Apologist.

[Yagoda]

2 hours ago, MicroB said:

Some interesting expert viewpoints on Russian Barrier Troop deployments in Southern Ukraine:

 

You act like Russians setting up blocking positions for their own troops is something new.

 

Thats what Russians do.

[thaibeachlovers]

3 hours ago, MicroB said:

The US didn't go to "conquer Afghanistan". They went to support the Northern  Alliance against the Taliban

It has been suggested that the CIA did not intend that the Russians would fail entirely, but wanted to bleed them for as long as possible, and that policy was probably working well till Gorbachev took over and withdrew the Russians from Afghanistan.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cyclone

At a 30 March meeting, U.S. Department of Defense representative Walter B. Slocombe "asked if there was value in keeping the Afghan insurgency going, 'sucking the Soviets into a Vietnamese quagmire?'"[18] When asked to clarify this remark, Slocombe explained: "Well, the whole idea was that if the Soviets decided to strike at this tar baby [Afghanistan] we had every interest in making sure that they got stuck."

 

 

It's a pity that they supported the wrong alliance, having backed the Pakistani choice, as we know how that turned out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cyclone

Of the seven mujahideen groups supported by Zia's government, four espoused Islamic fundamentalist beliefs—and these fundamentalists received most of the funding.

[Rimmer]

Multiple off topic posts and replies have been removed, topic is not about WW2, Afghanistan or British and American troops:

 

Russia’s economy is doomed

[Sir Dude]

Russia, and its economy is in deep do-do. Russia's demographic situation is terrible, same problem in China, Japan and South korea etc. If you want to look into the falling population crisis in places like Russia, then go watch some of the geopolitical anaysis by Peter Zeihan on YouTube... very good stuff.

As for Russia's economy, it's got to the point where it can't really afford to lose the war, or win it. If it loses the war, then it's done, if it wins the war, then it can't afford to rebuild the territory it has taken and its war economy will suddenly wind down creating havoc. Many observers are saying that Russia is suffering from what is known as "Dutch disease" (basically, the sudden rapid over-development and reliance on/of one sector of an economy, like natural resourses, at the decline of others... thus sparking lots of problems). There is also a problem of brain drain in Russia as all the well-educated scientists and engineers from the Soviet times and quality educational institutions from back in the day are dying out, and the Russian universities are not what they used to be.

The economy is Putin's achillies heel because if the oligarths and elites aren't making money, then he's not upholding his end of the deal, which was that you can get rich and keep it if you stay out of politics. On top of that, it is the intelligence agencies like the FSB who decide what happens and who runs what (and Putin is from that group too). If the elites and intelligence agencies decide Putin is no longer their man... well, anything could happen.

Russia's economy is overheating due the churning military producion industrial complex and inflation is way out of control, probably a lot worse than official figures say, and the currency is becoming worthless... with China and its Yuan that can only help so far as the Chinese are worried about secondary sanctions being placed on it.

Russia is in big trouble and it is a vast country to hold together with so many minorities that are hardly in love with Moscow. Russia could easily fragment into like 30 countries if it goes properly south.

However, this is all of Putin's own making due to him chasing the long held ambitions of previous rulers of Russia... all about securing the entry points to the vast open plains and steppes of central Russia. Russia has long sort natural barriers as protection from invasion, and during the Soviet Union's time they controlled all of them (think there are 7). This is why the Russians are so interested in the Caucuses as that is one, Moldova is another and that's on the other side of Ukraine, Poland and Estonia are another (think the Suwalki Gap to Kaliningrad etc.). It is these places Putin wants to control as it then makes invasion of the Russian interior almost impossible and this is what is fueling the Russian aggression... look what happened in Operation Barbarossa in WW2.

Why now? Putin knows that time is running out and that the demographic and economic time bomb will mean that delay will equal they won't be able to do it later, it's try now or it will never happen.

"Times they are a changin" and the newer generations aren't interest in imperial conquest so much... look how many young and talented Russians have fled as they have no interest in war.

There are few things as dangerous as the nostalgia of old men.

[stevenl]

Wrong definition of Dutch disease. Appreciate the rest of your post though.

From Wikipedia.

Dutch disease is an economic phenomenon where a sudden increase in a country's natural resource wealth leads to a decline in other sectors, particularly manufacturing, due to currency appreciation and reduced export competitiveness. This situation can result in long-term economic challenges once the resource wealth diminishes.

[3NUMBAS]

panic over low birthrate

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2008606/russia-plunging-fertility-rate/amp
 

 

According to the United Nations, Russia's fertility rate is 1.42 children per woman, below the 2.1 per woman needed to maintain a population.

Despite having one of the largest populations in the world at approximately 144 million people, it has one of the lowest global fertility rates.

The World Bank, meanwhile, reported that in the first half of 2024 only 599,600 children were born in Russia, 16,000 fewer than in 2023 and the lowest overall number for 25 years.

Putin recently suggested Russian women should have larger families - with as many as eight children - and lawmakers have floated the idea of a tax on childlessness.

[3NUMBAS]

Ukrainian defense forces have consistently struck Russian oil refineries,

 

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/comment/strikes-on-refineries-create-collapse-in-1738348003.html
 

Ukrainian defense forces have consistently struck Russian oil refineries, nearly causing a collapse in the country’s oil and gas industry, said aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap in a commentary to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.

"The Russians have the Ust-Luga terminal, which was struck last year, and for a while it was closed, but in May they reopened it. And now, these strikes we've delivered on the refineries... Ryazan Refinery is about 18 million tons per year, Kstovo Refinery is 17 million, Volgograd Refinery is about 14 million tons," he listed

Kryvolap detailed that Russia’s total refining capacity is 340-380 million tons per year, with about 54% of that processed. The strike on the oil pumping station at Ust-Luga has halted operations, demonstrating the effectiveness of Ukrainian defense forces’ efforts.

[MicroB]

On 1/22/2025 at 1:36 AM, Gweiloman said:

Yes, western msm reports that Russia is losing thousands of troops a week. Sounds like you believe those reports. In case you’re interested, I have a bridge for sale…

 

For balance, since you are actively monitoring the media, what is the Eastern MSM telling you, and do you believe those reports. Are you a Russian hospital administraor or health ministry employee. Because I'm not sure how you are in any position to discount Russian losses of "thousands of troops a week".

 

The other way I suppose is to analyse death notices placed in Russian media. I suspect you are automatically discounting any source West of Minsk, on the basis of perceived bias, and instead have built your own spreadsheet of KIAs, to effectively counter Western claims. Care to share that, to get the "truth" out, or are you only trusting of the Russian government?

 

The same Western sources were probably compiling losses in Iraq etc that you probably seized upon immediately as the ruth,

[MicroB]

5 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

Ukrainian defense forces have consistently struck Russian oil refineries,

 

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/comment/strikes-on-refineries-create-collapse-in-1738348003.html
 

Ukrainian defense forces have consistently struck Russian oil refineries, nearly causing a collapse in the country’s oil and gas industry, said aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap in a commentary to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.

"The Russians have the Ust-Luga terminal, which was struck last year, and for a while it was closed, but in May they reopened it. And now, these strikes we've delivered on the refineries... Ryazan Refinery is about 18 million tons per year, Kstovo Refinery is 17 million, Volgograd Refinery is about 14 million tons," he listed

Kryvolap detailed that Russia’s total refining capacity is 340-380 million tons per year, with about 54% of that processed. The strike on the oil pumping station at Ust-Luga has halted operations, demonstrating the effectiveness of Ukrainian defense forces’ efforts.

 

It would be interesting to see how much of the Russian oil industry is dependant on Western tachnologies. How much was built or upgraded, to replace Soviet era infrastructure, and then we get a better idea how much can Russia repair.

 

 

 

 

Ryazan Refinery

There was a contract awarded in October 2021 with Italian contractor Maire Tecnimont to construct a vacuum gas oil hydrocracking complex, but I guess that never happened.

 

Kstovo Refinery

Maire also won a 2018 contract here:

 

https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/maire-tecnimont-upgrades-lukoils-kstovo-refinery-us527m-russia.html

 

Chevron Lummus Global, McDermott's joint venture with Chevron, also won a 2018 contract at this plant

 

https://www.mcdermott-investors.com/news/press-release-details/2018/McDermott-Awarded-EPC-Contract-for-Delayed-Coker-Unit-for-LUKOIL-Refinery/default.aspx

 

Volgograd Refinery

 

Tecnicas Reunidas (Spanish) did work in 2013-15

 

http://admin.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2013/02/lukoil-picks-tecnicas-reunidas-for-upgrade-project-at-volgograd-refinery/

 

I suspect there are a fair few people on this forum with quite a high level of understanding of the oil refining industry, maybe specifically in Russia, or can provide a general assessment.

 

When these works are bombed/attacked, it always seems there is a lot of damage.

Is this damage more superficial than it looks, or is it genuinely significant. Its probably not that much different to a fire breaking out.

When damaged by fire, what sort of parts are replaced?

Are parts typically "off the shelf" or custom made, fabricated

For controllers and electricals/electronics; is it easy to substitute one type of part for another type of part. eg. American components switched out for Chinese/Indian parts. (not to get into a debate about quality; can they be straighforwardly subsitituted)

 

Knowing which parts are ciritcally dependant on foreign parts would help Ukraine plan how to use drones strategically. It also wouldn't catastrophically damage the Russian Oil Industry; these aren't being degraded in a way that would utterly cripple the Russian economy post-war, which is perhaps an off-ramp for Putin's Oligarch backers who might want to stop all this nonsense coming from Putin.

 

[MicroB]

On 1/22/2025 at 5:05 AM, RuamRudy said:

 

And the repercussions will be felt for,  decades to come - the Russian youth, desperately needed to propel the nation's industrial base forward against an increasingly more capable world, is being lost. While the rest of the world continues to grow and develop and innovate, Russia persists in continuing this slow motion seppuku.

 

Its happening to both sides sadly. Part of the motivation of Putin's aggression was demographic certainty. Putin has always bewailed the loss of the Soviet Union. and it being a great tragedy. But its a Russian saying that. The reason he sees it as a great tragedy is not the loss of fraternal relationships with other Soviet people, but the fragmentation of Rus people, who are left scattered. He couldn't care less about the other peoples; they existed to serve the Russian people. He feels a sense of injustice at the end of the Cold War, and we might think, like the Versailles Agreement, there is something in that. Hitler felt great injustice with Versailles because it left Germanic peoples fragmented.

 

Like many others before him, Putin has misjudged the winds of change, just as those misunderstood the words spoken in 1918, 1945, 1988, 1990, 2001, 2003. Whether it was the end of WW1, the defeat of Nazi of Germany, the Polish shipbuilders strikes of 1981, the 1991 collapse of the USSR, the defeat of Iraq, 911, 2003 Euromaidan, what  Putin has failed to understand is that history is the product of movements, not individual people. In his positoon as an isolated autocratic ruler, he believes he wields great power, as an individual, and we see that in Russian government footage of him hectoring officials, and the basis of his supposed expertise in many areas. He thinks this is how the world is run. I suspect Trump thinks this as well, because that's how he ran his dad's companies.

 

The United States is in the midst of a struggle between two peoples with differing visions for the US. I'm not sure how that will play out. It may well end up in a transformation of the settled status of North America, like Europe after 1918 and 1988. I wouldn't say that means a bigger US, but a different US.

 

[MicroB]

On 1/26/2025 at 5:43 AM, rabas said:

Here's your sign.

 

A recent video of Putin meeting heads of academia exposes how isolated and fearful he has become. In it, he calls for Muscovites (an big part of his support base) to receive salaries on par with top Universities!  He then asks how much that is and is shocked by the low answer exclaiming that's  impossible and argues repeatedly. Watch his face and the attendees' laughter.

 

Conclusion, Putin is badly out of touch and is also increasingly concerned about his support.  Ordinary Russian's can't overthrow Putin but their suffering can encourage those who can like the top military leadership whom he has been attacking. 

 

 

 

In 2022, I thought a Putsch by the military was possible; an unecessary war with Ukraine was threatening to degrade their carefully cultivated empires just as the new professional military was emerging, with new kit genuinely comparable to the West. I thought the relative non-involvement of the Russian Air Force meant something; you would have thought the war would have been started by Russia first dominating Ukrainian airspace, removing the need for much conflict between ground forces. The airforce, even now, largely operates from Russian air space, preserving its capabilities.

 

Compare that to 1990 and 2003, where the Western coalition utterly pulverised Iraqi ground assets from the air, resulting in a quickly concluded groundwar and routing of the enemy.

 

I had thought that the emerging Generals of the 2020s, following decades of close observation and genuine working with their western counterparts would have left a mark. But these Generals didn't get promoted because they were good at teir jobs, but because they were loyal to the boss (a process happening in the US now). They genuinely don't care about their commands, their men. They don't care that instead of T14 Armatas, their tank crews are now using 70 year old hulls with scallding bolted to them. and that battle buses are literally that; UAZ-452 Loaf vans, with all the literal sophistication of a 1959 Ford Thames Van, are now the main mode of transport into conflict. When Wellington said his army were the Scum of the Earth (in response to a Fremch comment that French soldiers were all highly educated), it was said as a source of pride. When a Russian talks of their army, its with much fear (when they go back home).

 

Putin has taken a hybrid-Gaddafi approach to holding power. He knows that the Russian Revolution started among the Russian military (the Imperial Russian Navy I believe), so he has created an internal network of rival militas, such as the National Guard, reporting to him, not the Defence Ministry, meaning  that makes any of them too weak to overthrow him. But the Wagner Mutiny showed that internally, Russian forces were paper thin, with, ironically, only the air force under a central unified command.

 

I wish the Russian would stand up like they did in 1991.

 

 

[kwonitoy]

5 hours ago, MicroB said:

When these works are bombed/attacked, it always seems there is a lot of damage.

Is this damage more superficial than it looks, or is it genuinely significant. Its probably not that much different to a fire breaking out.

When damaged by fire, what sort of parts are replaced?

Are parts typically "off the shelf" or custom made, fabricated

For controllers and electricals/electronics; is it easy to substitute one type of part for another type of part. eg. American components switched out for Chinese/Indian parts. (not to get into a debate about quality; can they be straighforwardly subsitituted)

 

Knowing which parts are ciritcally dependant on foreign parts would help Ukraine plan how to use drones strategically. It also wouldn't catastrophically damage the Russian Oil Industry; these aren't being degraded in a way that would utterly cripple the Russian economy post-war, which is perhaps an off-ramp for Putin's Oligarch backers who might want to stop all this nonsense coming from Putin.

 

Refineries are built with fire in mind, fires in the processing area are quite common, pipes wear out rupture, fire.

That's why you see the oil tanks distributed quite far apart with earth berms around them, it's to contain the oil in the event of a leak and limit the damage to one tank, you can see this in some of the arial photos

Small fires happen frequently and are containable, Large one like whats happening are catastrophic 

 

What is replaced after a fire depends on the damage incurred but your going to have to clear out all the broked, destroyed piping and replace it, it can't be reused

 

You need qualified welders, high grade steel, Valves, fittings, and much more, you can't go to the hardware store and buy equipment

I worked in the Soviet Union in the mid 80's and we brought everything with us from Canada. 

My company did work on the valve setting for the start of the Nordstream pipeline, everything we worked on installing came from Germany

 

Every refinery is different and piping and controls systems are built for that refinery, 

Valves, fittings, pipe are standard, but the layout of the process area is unique to every refinery

 

The control room is the brains of the refinery and it is also purpose built to each refinery.

Instrimitation is one of the most complicated jobs in the oilfield, it's hard to get good people in the West to do this

 

I did a job in Australia where the electrical crew messed up some connections and basically fried the control systems.

9 months to build a replacement

 

They have been targeting the cracking towers.

I live in Edmonton which produces the components for the oil sands, and the Western Canadian oil patch

I could get ahold of Dacro Industries and order a cracking tower to be built and it would take more than a year to complete

And we have all the people, material, techniques to start tomorrow

Russia does not.

 

From my experience I would put a missile into the control room and the refinery is dead, but they can be quite small and in out of the way places, not easy to target, so they are using the brute force approach 

[frank83628]

On 2/1/2025 at 6:29 AM, TedG said:

The war is almost three years old.   Putin failed to conquer Ukraine.  

 

 

It was not the plan to anyway.

[MicroB]

41 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

It was not the plan to anyway.

 

So why did they bother packing victory parade uniforms?

 

Russia had a 10 day plan to seize Kyiv, and then complete the full annexation of Ukraine by August 2022.

 

What's your evidence that Russia was not trying to annex all of Ukraine. Putin's speech on 24 February 2022 is not evidence.