Thai Baht Set to Weaken as US Tariff Tensions Escalate

[webfact]

Picture courtesy: Kasikorn Research Centre

 

The Thai baht is anticipated to weaken in the coming weeks, largely due to increasing global trade tensions in the wake of the United States' recent decision to elevate tariffs on aluminium and steel imports to a flat rate of 25%.

 

On Tuesday, the baht commenced trading at approximately 33.96 per US dollar, a slight appreciation from Monday's closing rate of 33.91, but it soon weakened, surpassing 34 baht during the day's trading, reaching 34.07 per dollar by late afternoon.

 

Poon Panitchpibun, a money market strategist at Krungthai Global Markets, explained that the baht's depreciation followed the announcement by US President Donald Trump of a significant tariff increase on steel and aluminium imports. The tariffs, now at 25%, represent a substantial rise from the previous 10%, marking the end of various exemptions and agreements.

 

This strategic trade move by the US has exerted pressure on the baht, said Mr Poon, as the US dollar strengthened in response to these measures. Despite opening at 33.89 on Monday—down from last Friday's 33.64 closing—the baht's weakening has been compounded by mounting market uncertainty.

"If the baht continues its decline and breaks through the resistance threshold of 34-34.10 per dollar, it might challenge the 34.20 zone next," he suggested. He further noted that the baht could stay volatile depending on the evolving US trade policies and economic statistics. The global upswing in gold prices has offered some respite, yet a short-term correction in the gold market is possible given recent peaks.

 

Kanjana Chockpisansin, who heads research in the banking and financial sector at Thailand's Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research), observed that the baht's dip past 34 per dollar marks its lowest point in a week. This depreciation aligns with a general downward trend among regional currencies, largely spurred by the stronger US dollar amid shifting trade policies.

 

As global tensions are projected to escalate amidst ongoing US trade developments, Ms Kanjana advises close watching of forthcoming tariff enactments. In this climate, the US Federal Reserve might delay rate cuts, bolstering the dollar against the baht.

 

Looking forward, K-Research anticipates the baht to fluctuate within a range of 33.85-34.15 per dollar in the near term. As these economic dynamics unfold, both domestic and international market participants will remain on high alert, assessing the impact on trade and investment strategies, reported Bangkok Post.

 

-- 2025-02-13

 

 

[dinsdale]

I'm confused. Wasn't there an article not too long ago saying Baht strengthening because of tariffs?

[JoePai]

Thailand only exported (approx) US$330m to the US, a small amount so is that enough to cause problems to the Baht ?

[lordgrinz]

Again, unless it reaches 37-38 to USD, then its not even worth thinking about.....the baht is still too expensive, due mainly to manipulation.

[bamnutsak]

Hopefully, Trump will focus on Thigh Land, and leave Thailand alone.

 

 

[Yagoda]

Perfect! Im coming in next week, that means I save $10 on short time!

[KhunLA]

Since inauguration ... to today, basically unchanged.

So our world is not ending  because of Trump 

 

[scottiejohn]

1 hour ago, Yagoda said:

Perfect! Im coming in next week, that means I save $10 on short time!

Is that all you charge for a short time?

[Yagoda]

3 minutes ago, scottiejohn said:

Is that all you charge for a short time?

Hi puppy. Yap yap yap. 

[CallumWK]

1 hour ago, Yagoda said:

Perfect! Im coming in next week, that means I save $10 on short time!

 

You pay in Thai baht in Cambodia?

[CallumWK]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

On Tuesday, the baht commenced trading at approximately 33.96 per US dollar, a slight appreciation from Monday's closing rate of 33.91,

 

So weakening is an appreciation these days?

[Tompa]

1 hour ago, JoePai said:

Thailand only exported (approx) US$330m to the US, a small amount so is that enough to cause problems to the Baht ?

Not sure where you got that number? Thailand export usd billions every month.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/total-exports-to-usa

[Yagoda]

12 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

 

You pay in Thai baht in Cambodia?

No I use riel here or dollars. Why?

[bendejo]

DT likes to receive gifts.

Thai ambassador to US should send him a case of durians.   🙂

 

 

[CallumWK]

9 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

No I use riel here or dollars. Why?

 

Because this topic is about Thai Baht Set to Weaken.

 

But I understand you were too eager to add your useless yap yap yap

[Yagoda]

8 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

 

Because this topic is about Thai Baht Set to Weaken.

 

But I understand you were too eager to add your useless yap yap yap

Well when I transfer $$ into my Thai bank account Ill be getting more wont I?  So whats your point? Oh I know, the yap yap yap, you are channeling one of your stalker mentors.

[connda]

Good!

 

[connda]

Maybe it would be worth writing to the Trump White House informing his cabinet and DOGE of the Thai import tariffs on US goods and request that the US in turn implements reciprocal tariffs in a Quid Pro Quo manner until such time as Thailand drops its tariffs on US imports. 

[JoePai]

56 minutes ago, Tompa said:

Not sure where you got that number? Thailand export usd billions every month.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/total-exports-to-usa

Check again, we are talking Aluminium 

[Jonathan Swift]

 

 

[kevin612]

I don’t believe this anymore, Thai baht is the strongest currency in southeast asia

[Jonathan Swift]

1 hour ago, connda said:

Maybe it would be worth writing to the Trump White House informing his cabinet and DOGE of the Thai import tariffs on US goods and request that the US in turn implements reciprocal tariffs in a Quid Pro Quo manner until such time as Thailand drops its tariffs on US imports. 

First of all most of the Trump white house are functionally illiterate, so writing to them? Seriously?  Secondly, the US doesn't care one whit what happens to Thailand, in Trump's eyes it's just another one of his shίthόIe countries (his words, not mine). Thailand has nothing to offer Trump in return for favors. It's going to be quid pro quo for the next four years. Just forget about the US, as I have. 

[Jonathan Swift]

Keep in mind that this is the same seesaw that has always existed. If the baht weakens then the strong foreign currency's buying power will bring more dollars and other currency into Thailand, people will be more motivated to come here and spend. I will certainly be more inclined to bring more money in from the US. The exchange rate has been unusually low in favor of the baht for some time, between 33 and 34 baht to the dollar. It has not long ago been as high as 38 baht to the dollar. I will admit to not knowing enough about the actual Thai economy to understand the real impact of this on Thailand as a whole. I suspect, just as in my case, it doesn't affect the general population in any real sense. Cheers everyone, enjoy your day. 

[alex8912]

15 minutes ago, Jonathan Swift said:

First of all most of the Trump white house are functionally illiterate, so writing to them? Seriously?  Secondly, the US doesn't care one whit what happens to Thailand, in Trump's eyes it's just another one of his shίthόIe countries (his words, not mine). Thailand has nothing to offer Trump in return for favors. It's going to be quid pro quo for the next four years. Just forget about the US, as I have. 

When did Trump call Thailand a s hole country?  Can you name at least two at the Trump White House who are illiterate?  Last question. Do you have some syndrome that puts your finger to a keyboard to express your anger?  Please get help. 

[RocketDog]

4 hours ago, bamnutsak said:

Hopefully, Trump will focus on Thigh Land, and leave Thailand alone.

 

 

Unless he gets it confused with Greenland.

[KhunLA]

฿30 to ฿35 / $1 USD, people, that's the normal range the past 15 years.  Any higher, then thank you very much.

 

No drama expected the next 4 years. 

Moving < 1/2 - 1 - 5 or < 10% isn't worth getting excited about.

[kingstonkid]

5 hours ago, bamnutsak said:

Hopefully, Trump will focus on Thigh Land, and leave Thailand alone.

 

 

Only if china stays out of Thailand factories 

[mfd101]

1 hour ago, Jonathan Swift said:

I suspect, just as in my case, it doesn't affect the general population

I guess at least 50% of Thais consume no imported goods whatever. Too poor & no interest in what the rest of the world has to offer. So no obvious effect on them at all.

[Srikcir]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

The Thai baht is anticipated to weaken in the coming weeks, largely due to increasing global trade tensions in the wake of the United States' recent decision to elevate tariffs on aluminium and steel imports to a flat rate of 25%.

The baht might weaken some in advance of the Dollar in the short term mostly due to international market "jitters."

But the impart of Trump's tariffs in the long term if he doesn't cave on the tariffs in the short term will weaken the Dollar's exchange rate perhaps even more than any weakening of the baht.

Figure 2-3 months of US industrial stagnation/closures, higher unemployment, loss of consumer confidence, stock market losses and higher inflation in consumables might tend to strengthen the baht.

[FlorC]

It might happen this week. The higher the tariffs the better.