This Stock Market Index Is Flashing a Clear Warning About the Economy

[placeholder]

The Russell 2000 includes smaller companies that are more sensitive to the whims of the economy. These companies tend to run thinner profit margins that can be more easily eroded in a downturn, and they have fewer levers to pull than big companies if they do get into trouble.

After surging to a new high in November on optimism about the new Trump administration’s pro-business policies, the Russell 2000 has tumbled more than 18 percent, roughly double the decline of the S&P 500 since it hit a peak last month.

https://archive.ph/HrKmm

[Digitalbanana]

Donald Trump's economic policies are causing significant damage to the US economy, as evidenced by the stock market correction with the S&P index falling over 10% from its peak in less than a month and Russell 2000 down 20%. Trump and the American right's inability to grasp reality, since they are feeding off their own fake news and blocking out objective news, mislabeling unilateral tariff smash and grabs as negotiations, is leading to this economic vandalism, and Trump now acknowledges the possibility of a recession, despite his previous promises of quick turnaround.

[spidermike007]

The stock market likes stability, the economy in general likes stability, Wall Street likes stability, bankers like stability, consumers like stability, all of which fly in the face of one of the most highly unstable men in the world currently leading the United States. Not only is he unstable he's a an idiotic maniac with a terrible plan that could very likely destroy the world economy.

 

The man is extremely dangerous and needs to be stopped. 

 

 

 

 

[lordgrinz]

People do realize you can make money no matter which way the stock market is head, right?

[transam]

Use the 25th Amendment to the Constitution before it is too late........😬

 

And get Musk out-a-there.......🤕

[Walker88]

17 minutes ago, lordgrinz said:

People do realize you can make money no matter which way the stock market is head, right?

I know that,but most people do not know the process of shorting. Also, the vast majority of funds that manage people's 401Ks are not allowed to short, so they have positive returns only in up markets.

 

Futures might be a zero sum game, but the equity market is not. The $5,000,000,000,000 that evaporated in the last few weeks is gone. No longer exists as a paper gain.

 

Friday's Consumer Sentiment number was the worst in 30 years. The inflation expectations were horrible.

 

The recently released CPI is a lagging indicator, so that +2.8% rate does not reflect the movements related to tariffs, as those first filter through the PPI at the wholesale level.

 

The market is trading very much like Japan in early 1990. Extended drops, then dead cat bounces. No big blowoff, just a bleed that keeps coming. Back then in Japan the pundits were all optimistic. It was a "buying opportunity", and soon would go back to new highs.

 

New highs took 35 years.

 

Had the US markets seen a blowoff like 19 October 1987 or the tumble when Covid first hit, I might think this drop is temporary. Because it is doing such a good impersonation of Japan 1990, I think the December highs in the S&P and NASDAQ won't be topped for 20 years.

 

While I'm prepared to be proven wrong, everything I see says generational top.

 

This Administration has gone out of its way to both do stupid things and alienate the people it needs to fund the deficit, a deficit that will only explode with his tax cuts. His capricious attitude toward law also takes away the one thing that makes US markets attractive to foreigners: ease of entry and exit.

 

I saw a recent poll, which I will try to find and LINK, that only 16% of non-Americans have a favorable view of the US now. That has fallen 60 points in two months. That will manifest itself in trade, tourism and investment. The US is approaching North Korea level in terms of its favorability. Nobody likes their fat little dictator, and nobody likes our fat dumb dictator wannabe.

[impulse]

Meanwhile, the price of gas is less than $3 at the pump in 31 states.

 

Don't take my word for it.  Google it.

 

[Mike_Hunt]

2 hours ago, impulse said:

Meanwhile, the price of gas is less than $3 at the pump in 31 states.

 

Don't take my word for it.  Google it.

 

I paid $2.87 yesterday. 

[Keeps]

19 hours ago, placeholder said:

The Russell 2000 includes smaller companies that are more sensitive to the whims of the economy. These companies tend to run thinner profit margins that can be more easily eroded in a downturn, and they have fewer levers to pull than big companies if they do get into trouble.

After surging to a new high in November on optimism about the new Trump administration’s pro-business policies, the Russell 2000 has tumbled more than 18 percent, roughly double the decline of the S&P 500 since it hit a peak last month.

https://archive.ph/HrKmm

Thank you for posting this. I was considering buying an Artemis US small caps fund as recommended by my UK investment platform.

 

In your opinion, is now a buying opportunity or is there still a way to fall? I do invest a partial amount of my portfolio in global small caps when the time is right. UK small cap funds have served me well when investing at the right time.

 

Any feedback very welcome.

 

[sharot724]

16 minutes ago, Mike_Hunt said:

I paid $2.87 yesterday. 

Texas maybe but not California average gas prices

	Regular	Mid-Grade
Current Avg.	$4.712	$4.926
Yesterday Avg.	$4.720	$4.939
Week Ago Avg.	$4.783	$4.990
Month Ago Avg.	$4.607	$4.817

[sharot724]

2 hours ago, impulse said:

Meanwhile, the price of gas is less than $3 at the pump in 31 states.

 

Don't take my word for it.  Google it.

 

Direct from your source ty

The drop in prices owes in part to sluggish demand for gas as the busy summer traveling season has given way to an autumn slowdown, experts said.

[Mike_Hunt]

2 minutes ago, sharot724 said:

Texas maybe but not California average gas prices

	Regular	Mid-Grade
Current Avg.	$4.712	$4.926
Yesterday Avg.	$4.720	$4.939
Week Ago Avg.	$4.783	$4.990
Month Ago Avg.	$4.607	$4.817

Thanks for the update on Texas.   But, I don't livd in Texas. 

 

AAA shows the average prices of gas in Texas at $2.65.

 

https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/

 

 

Question, why did post outdated info trying to make point when it's easy to fact check these days. 

[sharot724]

Just now, Mike_Hunt said:

Thanks for the update on Texas.   But, I don't livd in Texas. 

 

AAA shows the average prices of gas in Texas at $2.65.

 

https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/

 

 

Question, why did post outdated info trying to make point when it's easy to fact check these days. 

it is a today price

 

[sharot724]

Probably because the traffic from Canada is non existant lol

[sharot724]

As you say:

As of March 15, 2025, the average price of regular gasoline in California is around $4.66 per gallon, while diesel is averaging $5.03 per gallon. 

[Mike_Hunt]

4 minutes ago, sharot724 said:

it is a today price

 

No it's not. 

[Mike_Hunt]

1 minute ago, sharot724 said:

As you say:

As of March 15, 2025, the average price of regular gasoline in California is around $4.66 per gallon, while diesel is averaging $5.03 per gallon. 

That's CA.  CA loves the high gas taxes. 

 

https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/

[timendres]

3 hours ago, Walker88 said:

I know that,but most people do not know the process of shorting. Also, the vast majority of funds that manage people's 401Ks are not allowed to short, so they have positive returns only in up markets.

 

This was quite true back in the day. But now we have ETFs that mimic shorting the market.

For example, QID is a 2x short on the QQQ, which is an ETF that tracks the NASDAQ.

These ETFs are not for the uninitiated. They have real risk if not traded properly.

I use the QID (and others) ETF as a hedging vehicle in my IRA (retirement account).

[3NUMBAS]

Portugal cancels order for F35s cos of trumps antics 

[TedG]

3 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

Portugal cancels order for F35s cos of trumps antics 

They just realized they can’t afford F35s.   

[Patong2021]

https://gasprices.aaa.com/. That should settle the gas price  argument.

 

Gas prices will  soon  head back up and it won't be political, Every year refineries shut down in the summer for maintenance and demand soars for summer driving. In previous years, refineries had some  problems due to hurricanes and fires, although Biden  got blamed for the  proce increases.

[Zaphod Priest]

12 minutes ago, timendres said:

But now we have ETFs that mimic shorting the market.

For example, QID is a 2x short on the QQQ, which is an ETF that tracks the NASDAQ.

 

Nope.  These ETFs work on a daily price movement.  If the index falls 10% over a month, these ETFs will almost always not rise 10%.  The actual rise/fall will depend upon how jagged the index has been over the period.

[Patong2021]

7 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

Portugal cancels order for F35s cos of trumps antics 

 

Not yet. They are considering it.

Just as Canada  has now announced it will reconsider purchase of the F35. The Swedish Gripon was the 2nd option for Canada, and may now become the 1st, especially since the Swedes are not threatening to attack Canada.

Germany may be the next to  reconsider. 

[Patong2021]

6 minutes ago, TedG said:

They just realized they can’t afford F35s.   

Not really. The US requires all major maintenance to be done in the USA. Portugal can get  a similar product and have the right to service and to participate rather than send all the money to the USA and to be insulted in return.

 

Without international purchases, the F35 cost will increase for the USA. The Swedes have an excellent alternative.  Now that the USA is into tariff and trade wars, it makes no sense for anyone to purchase US made products. It is better to invest in products that will have economic  spinoffs locally. 

[Yagoda]

11 minutes ago, TedG said:

They just realized they can’t afford F35s.   

A whole 28 of them

[timendres]

2 minutes ago, Zaphod Priest said:

 

Nope.  These ETFs work on a daily price movement.  If the index falls 10% over a month, these ETFs will almost always not rise 10%.  The actual rise/fall will depend upon how jagged the index has been over the period.

 

Hence the reason I stated "These ETFs are not for the uninitiated. They have real risk if not traded properly."

But the QID has definitely delivered on its promise over the past two months: QQQ down 5%. QID up 10%

[nauseus]

3 hours ago, Walker88 said:

I know that,but most people do not know the process of shorting. Also, the vast majority of funds that manage people's 401Ks are not allowed to short, so they have positive returns only in up markets.

 

Futures might be a zero sum game, but the equity market is not. The $5,000,000,000,000 that evaporated in the last few weeks is gone. No longer exists as a paper gain.

 

Friday's Consumer Sentiment number was the worst in 30 years. The inflation expectations were horrible.

 

The recently released CPI is a lagging indicator, so that +2.8% rate does not reflect the movements related to tariffs, as those first filter through the PPI at the wholesale level.

 

The market is trading very much like Japan in early 1990. Extended drops, then dead cat bounces. No big blowoff, just a bleed that keeps coming. Back then in Japan the pundits were all optimistic. It was a "buying opportunity", and soon would go back to new highs.

 

New highs took 35 years.

 

Had the US markets seen a blowoff like 19 October 1987 or the tumble when Covid first hit, I might think this drop is temporary. Because it is doing such a good impersonation of Japan 1990, I think the December highs in the S&P and NASDAQ won't be topped for 20 years.

 

While I'm prepared to be proven wrong, everything I see says generational top.

 

This Administration has gone out of its way to both do stupid things and alienate the people it needs to fund the deficit, a deficit that will only explode with his tax cuts. His capricious attitude toward law also takes away the one thing that makes US markets attractive to foreigners: ease of entry and exit.

 

I saw a recent poll, which I will try to find and LINK, that only 16% of non-Americans have a favorable view of the US now. That has fallen 60 points in two months. That will manifest itself in trade, tourism and investment. The US is approaching North Korea level in terms of its favorability. Nobody likes their fat little dictator, and nobody likes our fat dumb dictator wannabe.

 

 

If you agree that the analogy with the Japanese crash and economic crisis of 1990 is fair, then you will have to agree that the US economy now is in a similarly dangerous "bubble". That bubble has not appeared overnight, but over 15 years of mainly very low interest rates and insanely high money creation via four rounds of QE (including the last during Covid). So Trump, or no Trump, and the Covid issue aside,  this bubble is long overdue to pop.

[TedG]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

 

 

If you agree that the analogy with the Japanese crash and economic crisis of 1990 is fair, then you will have to agree that the US economy now is in a similarly dangerous "bubble". That bubble has not appeared overnight, but over 15 years of mainly very low interest rates and insanely high money creation via four rounds of QE (including the last during Covid). So Trump, or no Trump, and the Covid issue aside,  this bubble is long overdue to pop.

Exactly, the market was pumped up with cheap money.   It’s going to burst sometime. 

[impulse]

1 hour ago, sharot724 said:

Direct from your source ty

The drop in prices owes in part to sluggish demand for gas as the busy summer traveling season has given way to an autumn slowdown, experts said.

 

Ummm.. It's the beginning of spring in the USA, not the end of summer.

 

Try harder next time.

 

[impulse]

1 hour ago, Mike_Hunt said:

I paid $2.87 yesterday. 

 

I'll bet that felt good.