Thailand at Risk of More Unpredictable Earthquakes, Experts Warn

[snoop1130]

File photo for reference only

 

At a recent seminar, academics highlighted Thailand's ongoing vulnerability to earthquakes, emphasising the unpredictability of when and where they might occur. This discussion took place during the 32nd "Chula the Impact" seminar at Chulalongkorn University.

 

Santi Pailoplee, a noted geology professor, explained that while scientists can identify areas at risk, predicting exact times and places remains impossible, dismissing any premature warnings as fake news. Aftershocks typically decrease in strength, but their occurrence is directly linked to the magnitude of the initial quake, he noted. An example cited was Indonesia's devastating earthquake, which resulted in approximately 500 aftershocks.

 

Notably, aftershocks from last Friday's quake no longer threaten Thailand, Santi reassured. However, Panya Jarusiri, another geology expert, pointed to the active Sagaing Fault and Thailand's 16 active fault lines as ongoing concerns. Risks from undetected faults like those in Phitsanulok and Kanchanaburi warrant caution, he added.

 

 

 

On building safety, civil engineering lecturer Chatpan Chintanapakdee recognised improvements in construction standards post-2007 but called for stringent inspections to ensure new buildings are designed to be earthquake-resistant. Furthermore, Angkanawadee Pinkaeo, a law academic, stressed reviewing insurance policies to ensure comprehensive coverage and address liability issues, particularly in light of the new State Audit Office building collapse.

 

With these discussions, experts aim to better prepare Thailand for future seismic events, combining research insights with construction safety measures, reported Bangkok Post.

 

-- 2025-04-02

 

 

[KireB]

Yes, that will restore faith in the 'high-rise' market

[dinsdale]

42 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

At a recent seminar, academics highlighted Thailand's ongoing vulnerability to earthquakes, emphasising the unpredictability of when and where they might occur.

Genius. My guess is somewhere near or around fault lines and earthquakes by their very nature are unpredictable about location and time. I'm no "expert" though. 

[klauskunkel]

Quote

Thailand at Risk of More Unpredictable Earthquakes, Experts Warn

The expertise in this warning is paramount.

[connda]

21 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

At a recent seminar, academics highlighted Thailand's ongoing vulnerability to earthquakes, emphasising the unpredictability of when and where they might occur.

That is about the stupidest statement I have ever heard.  "Expert?"  The essence of earthquakes IS their unpredictability. 

"Earthquakes are unpredictable.  I'm an expert.  I know!"
🙅‍♂️ "I'm a 4 year old and mummy has told me the earthquakes are unpredictable."

I'm Captain Obvious and I'm here to tell you that Earthquakes Are Unpredictable! See - I'm an "expert" too! 

"Experts."  <gag> 

[connda]

The main-stream media and "experts" will milk this for Maximum Fear. 

"Expert say that if you wear a mask 24/7 you are 23.3845% less likely to experience an earthquake." 🙄

[connda]

21 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

On building safety, civil engineering lecturer Chatpan Chintanapakdee recognised improvements in construction standards post-2007

Construction standards are only as good as the corruption which bypasses the standards.

[Snackbar]

Chinese / Thai exodus 

[Purdey]

Knowing everything, what can anyone do to solve the problem? Fill in the fault lines with concrete? Even upgrading the construction of high rises is pointless if engineers take bribes to "help" rich owners escape stringent tests.

[Aussie999]

I only read the headline, then thought, why read the rest, I'm not an expert, but I do know, no-one can predict earthquakes

[Aussie999]

2 minutes ago, Purdey said:

Knowing everything, what can anyone do to solve the problem? Fill in the fault lines with concrete? Even upgrading the construction of high rises is pointless if engineers take bribes to "help" rich owners escape stringent tests.

Do you know what a fault line is...555

[CanadaSam]

Earthquakes relieve stress along fault lines. 

 

After stress is relieved, it takes decades to build up again.

 

Anyone saying there is going to be another earthquake soon, is not an expert, he is an idiot.

[Rolo89]

There could be a strong earthquake that levels most of BKK tomorrow with it being built on jelly. Or it could be in 300 years. No one knows.

[bluemoon58]

And you're saying this now! Any chance you can pre-warn in the future instead of after the event?

[richard_smith237]

2 hours ago, klauskunkel said:

Quote

Thailand at Risk of More Unpredictable Earthquakes, Experts Warn

The expertise in this warning is paramount.

The headline is completely misleading & alarmists.

 

The article itself, accurate & factual and paints a very different picture than the headline implies. 
 

Facts: Minor aftershocks & tremors will occur & typically decrease in strength.

 

Other faults exist but are not major on plate boundaries & present low intensity ‘seismic risk’.

 

[richard_smith237]

1 hour ago, CanadaSam said:

Earthquakes relieve stress along fault lines. 

 

After stress is relieved, it takes decades to build up again.

 

Anyone saying there is going to be another earthquake soon, is not an expert, he is an idiot.

Correct, however the article also says that.  It’s just the headline that’s somewhat alarmist. 

[richard_smith237]

58 minutes ago, Rolo89 said:

There could be a strong earthquake that levels most of BKK tomorrow with it being built on jelly. Or it could be in 300 years. No one knows.

No there cannot.

 

This is about as strong as the Local magnitude (ML) in Bangkok could get as it sits too far away from any major plate boundary. 
 

Soft sediment / basin amplification was a major factor in the Magnitude experienced in Bkk, nevertheless this was as high as it gets (reasons explained in other threads I can link to later) 
 

The Sagaing fault hit hits highest ever magnitude - previous to that was in 1912 when 7.9 Mw was recorded. 
 

 

[nauseus]

23 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Genius. My guess is somewhere near or around fault lines and earthquakes by their very nature are unpredictable about location and time. I'm no "expert" though. 

 

Fair guess. Regional location is broadly predictable but timing, so far, not so. 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Purdey said:

Knowing everything, what can anyone do to solve the problem? Fill in the fault lines with concrete? Even upgrading the construction of high rises is pointless if engineers take bribes to "help" rich owners escape stringent tests.

 

The only real mitigation here would be the second of your suggestions. The fact that taller but better constructed towers survived well shows that success is possible, but only with high-level construction expertise, architecture, technique, workmanship and materials. 

[richard_smith237]

2 hours ago, Purdey said:

Knowing everything, what can anyone do to solve the problem? Fill in the fault lines with concrete? Even upgrading the construction of high rises is pointless if engineers take bribes to "help" rich owners escape stringent tests.

The epicenter of this quake was 10km deep on at 1200 km fault line….    

 

Fill it with concrete ? Seriously..,

 

There’s a fundamental flaw in your understanding of tectonics, plate boundaries & faults….   There’s nothing to be filled. This strike slip fault is shear - no gaps - just two masses of land sliding / trying to slide past each other (layman’s terms)….

 

… But, even without that understanding… filling one bucket of cement at 10km depth is rather impossible (due to geothermal gradient alone).
 

 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, CanadaSam said:

Earthquakes relieve stress along fault lines. 

 

After stress is relieved, it takes decades to build up again.

 

Anyone saying there is going to be another earthquake soon, is not an expert, he is an idiot.

 

What if there is already high stress in an adjacent fault? Or even closer to Yangon and Bangkok along the same fault? 

 

 

 

 

[hotchilli]

On 4/2/2025 at 4:25 PM, snoop1130 said:

At a recent seminar, academics highlighted Thailand's ongoing vulnerability to earthquakes, emphasising the unpredictability of when and where they might occur. This discussion took place during the 32nd "Chula the Impact" seminar at Chulalongkorn University.

Experts... it is April so we should expect hot air

[Rolo89]

5 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

No there cannot.

 

This is about as strong as the Local magnitude (ML) in Bangkok could get as it sits too far away from any major plate boundary. 
 

Soft sediment / basin amplification was a major factor in the Magnitude experienced in Bkk, nevertheless this was as high as it gets (reasons explained in other threads I can link to later) 
 

The Sagaing fault hit hits highest ever magnitude - previous to that was in 1912 when 7.9 Mw was recorded. 
 

 

No.

 

There can be a closer, longer and stronger earthquake hit BKK. If this is during monsoon could be really really bad for BKK. The other day was just a taster.

[richard_smith237]

16 hours ago, Rolo89 said:

No.

 

There can be a closer, longer and stronger earthquake hit BKK. If this is during monsoon could be really really bad for BKK. The other day was just a taster.

 

Could you please clarify the location of this 'closer' major plate boundary?

 

Friday’s earthquake was not a mere precursor; it was as intense as it can realistically get in Bangkok in terms of localised intensity.

While the onset of the monsoon season might raise the water table and potentially influence liquefaction, this would only occur if the earthquake were of sufficient magnitude.

 

Thailand's geological landscape is marked by numerous minor faults, but these are generally inconsequential.

 

The most significant earthquake to have originated within Thailand was the 2014 Chiang Rai earthquake, which registered a magnitude of 6.1 (equivalent to VIII on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale).

 

The closest significant fault structure to Thailand is the Sagaing Fault, which runs approximately north-south through central Myanmar, where last week’s earthquake was centred. Although not a direct boundary between two major tectonic plates, it forms part of a broader plate boundary region situated between the Indian Plate and the Southeast Asian (Sunda) Plate.

 

 

From an earthquake risk perspective, the most hazardous major plate boundary affecting Thailand is the Sunda Megathrust. This boundary, located between the Indo-Australian Plate and the Eurasian Plate, is relatively close, particularly to the southern and western regions of the country. It was responsible for the 2004 tsunami. However, major earthquakes from the Sunda Megathrust have not affected Bangkok, as it lies too far from the city.

 

Conversely, major earthquakes originating from the Sagaing Fault, such as the recent 7.7 Mw quake, have had an impact on Bangkok (as witnessed Friday).

The largest recorded earthquake from the Sagaing Fault was a magnitude 7.9 event in 1912. Other significant quakes affecting Thailand from this fault include a 7.3 Mw earthquake in 1930 and a 7.1 Mw event in 1956.

 

To summarise, while longer-duration earthquakes might be possible, the localised intensity of the tremor experienced in Bangkok on Friday is as severe as it gets.

 

It is unlikely for the city to experience a magnitude 9 earthquake due to its geological setting. Any event of that scale would indicate a catastrophic occurrence elsewhere, rendering the impact on Bangkok a side story by comparison.

[Rolo89]

39 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

To summarise, while longer-duration earthquakes might be possible, the localised intensity of the tremor experienced in Bangkok on Friday is as severe as it gets.

It really isn't there could be a stronger, longer earthquake that hits the area at any time. If this happened during monsoon with a high water table the damage done to BKK could be so much worse. Condo sellers would tell you otherwise.

[richard_smith237]

1 hour ago, Rolo89 said:

It really isn't there could be a stronger, longer earthquake that hits the area at any time. If this happened during monsoon with a high water table the damage done to BKK could be so much worse. Condo sellers would tell you otherwise.

 

I'm not a condo seller and live in a house - no vested interest in such rhetoric etc.

 

There are no significant plate boundaries close enough to Bangkok to cause an earthquake significant enough that it manifests itself with a localised amplified magnitude greater than we witnessed on Friday.

 

Liquefaction would play a factor in monsoon season due to a raised water table, particularly if a longer duration quake were to happen, however, the actual localised magnitude (ML) is very unlikely (Geologically improbable) to be higher than we saw on Friday.

 

 

We can 'argue there is / there isn't' but we're going round in circles. 

 

For the purposes of interesting debate, I'm interested in is why you think 'why there is'...   (I'm open to interesting debate particularly in this field).

 

I've explained that the Sagaing Fault, is not a direct boundary between two major tectonic plates, it forms part of a broader plate boundary and the stresses varies along it - This is why this boundary has never caused a a major quake as far south as Bangkok - closer to Bangkok the slip rates are not significant enough to cause a quake powerful enough to be greater than the quake experienced on Friday (from the perspective local magnitude in Bangkok).

 

Thats not to say, other 'similar' sized quakes from the Sagaing Fault complex can occur in the future (usually a major quake very 30-50 years or so - the stress / energy takes time to build up based on the slip rate (of the strike-slip fault).

 

 

 

 

 

 

[couchpotato]

On 4/3/2025 at 2:48 PM, Purdey said:

Knowing everything, what can anyone do to solve the problem? Fill in the fault lines with concrete? Even upgrading the construction of high rises is pointless if engineers take bribes to "help" rich owners escape stringent tests.

That's the best I've heard for a while...."fill in the fault lines with concrete".... laugh for today😀

I am going to believe he actually knows what faultlines are, but reading his post, I'm not so sure.

[rabas]

3 hours ago, Rolo89 said:

It really isn't there could be a stronger, longer earthquake that hits the area at any time. If this happened during monsoon with a high water table the damage done to BKK could be so much worse. Condo sellers would tell you otherwise.

Do you have a reference for your map?

 

I ask because it seems wrong in many ways. The Philippine sea plate should be on the other side of the Philippines, most red lines are borders not faults, and Bangkok is half way to Cambodia.  Instagram has similar 'fake' maps, one with  Burma's Three Pagodas fault line in Laos! Some were  generated with ChatGPT.

 

It's best to double check sources for internet gloom and doom posts.

[hotchilli]

On 4/2/2025 at 4:25 PM, snoop1130 said:

At a recent seminar, academics highlighted Thailand's ongoing vulnerability to earthquakes, emphasising the unpredictability of when and where they might occur. This discussion took place during the 32nd "Chula the Impact" seminar at Chulalongkorn University.

So academics discussing something they cannot predict... lunch must've been good.

[Hardcastle P]

On 4/3/2025 at 3:39 PM, bluemoon58 said:

And you're saying this now! Any chance you can pre-warn in the future instead of after the event?

Ex is passed and a spurt is a drip under pressure