Myanmar’s Economy ‘Trapped by Dictatorship’, Says U Sein Htay

U Sein Htay

Myanmar’s economic collapse is deepening under military rule, with food prices quadrupling since 2021 and one in three citizens now facing hunger, according to the UN World Food Programme. In a stark interview with The Irrawaddy, economist and former National League for Democracy adviser U Sein Htay warns that the junta is following a decades-old playbook that guarantees further decline.

Speaking from the United States, U Sein Htay described the situation as “a reflection of total economic failure.” He cited widespread displacement, urban poverty, and the junta’s violent tactics—including village bombings and trade blockades—as key drivers of the crisis. “Even in Yangon, poverty is rampant,” he said. “The WFP’s figures aren’t exaggerated—they’re based on real surveys.”

The regime’s restrictions on border trade, particularly with Thailand and China, have worsened shortages of essential goods like fuel and cooking oil. U Sein Htay argues that junta leader Min Aung Hlaing is repeating the mistakes of past dictators Ne Win and Than Shwe, prioritising control and military spending over economic stability.

“Min Aung Hlaing wants more dollars—not to feed the people, but to buy weapons,” he said. He likened current policies to Ne Win’s failed import-substitution strategy of the 1960s, which led to mass poverty while neighbouring countries embraced export-led growth.

Despite talk of elections, U Sein Htay sees no prospect of recovery. “The military has never managed the economy competently,” he said. “Even if elections are held, the trajectory will worsen. There’s no path forward unless the dictatorship ends.”

His comments come as Myanmar’s trade routes fall under the control of ethnic armed groups, further eroding the junta’s grip on foreign currency and tax revenue. With inflation soaring and livelihoods collapsing, the country remains locked in a cycle of repression and economic decay.

For U Sein Htay, the solution is clear but politically fraught: “As long as military rule persists, there’s no hope for genuine recovery.”

-2025-09-18