Trump's declared intention is to devalue the dollar.

 

Inflation is indicative of dollar devaluation.  But that is not what he means.
He means devaluation against other fiat currencies, which makes imports of manufactured goods and raw materials more expensive.

He wishes to discourage the import of maufactured goods as part of his plan to rebuild U.S. industry.
The U.S. has major reserves of many raw materials but they are under-exploited because often cheaper to import.  This he seeks to change.

A cheaper dollar on the foreign exchange markets makes American manufacturing more competitive.

 

Trunp's wild imposition of tariffs is intended to:

1.  Raise taxation revenue without strong opposition from U.S. citizens.

2.  Reduce foreign imports and thus foregn debt.

3.  Reduce foreign imports to support re-industrialisation.

4.  Provide a strong position in all diplomatic negotiations.

 

Trump does not want a too-rapid devaluation, which would discourage foreign investment needed to help rebuild U.S. industry.  Therefore he will, from time to time, declare he sees advantages in a strong dollar.

 

The following assessment, if correct, is quite an eye-opener as regards the details :-
"How the U.S. is Using Crypto and Gold to Erase $37 Trillion in Debt Without You Noticing"

 

 

[the gold price has risen a bit since recorded!]

In a nutshell: The Govenment of the United States of America wants the Dollar lower as a remedy to make American Exports competitive again, with the help of "import taxes".
Holders of US$ can only expect a steady decline versus other currencies over time as it's official "US policy". Or a fast decline. Against the Swiss Franc the US$ has declined 10% this year alone. Talk about a "fast decline".

 

Remedy? Only 2. 

 

Sell the US$ short on currency markets. Depending on currency, this "hedge" can cost between 3 to 15% per year. 

OR: Keep your assets in 50% US$ and the other 50% in your new "home currency". The "loss" of 1 leg of the equasion will make up for the "gain" on the other leg. Basically one is "fixing" a given exchange rate until "the mix" is changed. Best way to go if one has found a new home but the "income situation" is linked to the US$.

34 minutes ago, swissie said:

In a nutshell: The Govenment of the United States of America wants the Dollar lower as a remedy to make American Exports competitive again, with the help of "import taxes".
Holders of US$ can only expect a steady decline versus other currencies over time as it's official "US policy". Or a fast decline. Against the Swiss Franc the US$ has declined 10% this year alone. Talk about a "fast decline".

 

Remedy? Only 2. 

 

Sell the US$ short on currency markets. Depending on currency, this "hedge" can cost between 3 to 15% per year. 

OR: Keep your assets in 50% US$ and the other 50% in your new "home currency". The "loss" of 1 leg of the equasion will make up for the "gain" on the other leg. Basically one is "fixing" a given exchange rate until "the mix" is changed. Best way to go if one has found a new home but the "income situation" is linked to the US$.

Remedy #3.

Gold was money for  thousands of years, and worked better than anything else ever tried.  Not perfectly, but pretty well.

 

Paper money when first introduced was merely promissory notes where the bank promised to deliver upon demand a given quantity of gold.  In the case of the pound sterling note, a quarter of a Troy ounce of pure gold (+ a little copper for hardness).

 

The system only came undone when banks and governments abused it.  In the case of governments, commonly on account of war; which suggests that absolute control of the system should have been placed beyond their grasp.

 

We have been given fiat currency in place of money.

 

"Gold is money.  All the rest is credit."

41 minutes ago, ericbj said:

Remedy #3.

Gold was money for  thousands of years, and worked better than anything else ever tried.  Not perfectly, but pretty well.

 

Paper money when first introduced was merely promissory notes where the bank promised to deliver upon demand a given quantity of gold.  In the case of the pound sterling note, a quarter of a Troy ounce of pure gold (+ a little copper for hardness).

 

The system only came undone when banks and governments abused it.  In the case of governments, commonly on account of war; which suggests that absolute control of the system should have been placed beyond their grasp.

 

We have been given fiat currency in place of money.

 

"Gold is money.  All the rest is credit."

No opposition on my side.

 

But there is a fundamental problem. Gold is valued in US$, so are cypto currencies and soybeans. Fiat money as a "measuring stick".

 

As a reminder. Gold has gone tru massive bear markets in the past, whenever "Governments" were forced to increase interest rates to curb inflation. It was always the end of any Gold Bull Market. (If one can get 10% positive yield versus paying a negative "carrying charge" of 10% for Gold, folks are starting to sell their gold).

 

Currently, holding a long Gold position on a futures market costs around 7% per year.

9 hours ago, swissie said:

No opposition on my side.

 

But there is a fundamental problem. Gold is valued in US$, so are cypto currencies and soybeans. Fiat money as a "measuring stick".

 

As a reminder. Gold has gone tru massive bear markets in the past, whenever "Governments" were forced to increase interest rates to curb inflation. It was always the end of any Gold Bull Market. (If one can get 10% positive yield versus paying a negative "carrying charge" of 10% for Gold, folks are starting to sell their gold).

 

Currently, holding a long Gold position on a futures market costs around 7% per year.

 

When I sell gold (as I have reluctantly had to do to pay some uninsured hospital fees) depending upon where stored I receive either USD or GBP.  The gold's exchange value is not tied to the purchasing power of the fiat currency.  It is if anything INVERSELY proportional:  the more one goes down the more the other goes up.  Although the relationship is more complicated than that.

 

There is, as might be expected, the law of supply and demand. Growing demand notably from central banks.  Now that  gold is classed as a tier-1 asset by the BIC, it is resuming some of its former importance.

There is high consumer demand in Asia.

Yields from existing mines are falling (which it is claimed is going to be offset by a new exploration technology that can locate, by aerial survey, deposits buried at great depth - but developing new mines can take years)

 

There has been until recently large scale manipulation of the precious-metals markets by some big commercial banks through the selling of contracts for gold (and silver) far in excess of the metal they possessed.  Very occasonally prosecuted, to show that justice was being done, with fines of up to about a billion dollars.  Just a rap over the knuckles to their profits, so they carried on as before.  The commercial banks were not only serving their own financial interests by speculating against the "pet rock" as officialdom derisively labelled it but also serving governments wishing to retain public confidence in their fiat currency.

This profitable game has almost come to an end because growing shortages of the physical metal has led to high demand for physical delivery, rather than settlement with fiat currency as before.  Supplies are very tight.
This has further boosted gold and silver prices.

 

Gold's value has a reputation of keeping pace with inflation over hundreds if not thousands of years.  Difficult to quantify but broadly true over the longer term.  Not always true over the short term.
Inflation by its very definition means loss of value of fiat currency.

 

"Money-printing" tends to push up the stock-market, which in turn tended to hold gold prices down.  Latterly both have been rising at the same time, with gold more than catching up.  In terms of gold the cost of living is going down.

"Smart money" realises the over-bought nature of the stock-market and is diversifying.

There is a short-lived drop in gold and silver prices when  a market crash occurs.  Thought to be due to derivatives speculators having to sell precious metals to meet margin calls.

For trading fees (maximum 0.5%) and storage + insurance fees (maximum 0.12% p.a.) see here:
https://www.bullionvault.com/help/tariff.html

This is for allocated but not segregated gold.  You cannot as a rule withdraw the physical metal.

 

To have the option of withdrawing coins or bars, one can look here:
https://swpcayman.com/

 

Anyone reading this and thinking of buying gold is advised to avoid the trap that some Thais fell into during the 1997 Asian Crisis.  Their gold was stored by the gold dealer, not a specialised bullion storage company.  It was not 'allocated', i.e. in the buyer's name.  Some dealers, obviously trading on credit, went bankrupt.  And the creditors took the gold.

 

Apart from a small emergency stash, store outside your country of origin and your country of residence.

 

 

 

 

2 hours ago, ericbj said:

gold is classed as a tier-1 asset by the BIC

BIC should  read BIS.  Bank for International Settlements.

Daniela Cambone interviews Frank Giustra on, amongst other things, Trump's  US dollar stablecoin versus the gold-backed yuan.
Note that Trump has suggested restoring gold backing to the dollar, and his recent appointment of Mary Shelton to the Fed supports speculation of his intention to do so.

 

"This Will Be The Best Run Of Your Life":
Frank Giustra on Gold’s Final, Explosive Phase

 

Those who rely on USD to exist in Thailand need to prepare for what comes next.

The US has seen this level of debt only once before - after WWII.

The solution to the problem was to "devalue" the dollar aggressively, generate

inflation, and in turn, inflate the GDP. This is done by creating USD in quantity.

This reduces the Debt-GDP ratio to something that is more manageable.

The US will do the same thing again. There is no "paying down the debt".

 

The question is, how will this affect the USDTHB exhange rate, which is what

really matters to USD expats. This question cannot be answered definitively.

While the USD will be "inflated", the THB will inflate as well. Predicting the

relative exchange is nigh impossible. What can be predicted is that, regardless

of what happens to the USDTHB exchange rate, inflation will happen in both

currencies. Your cost of living in Thailand is certain to increase.

On 11/17/2025 at 4:33 AM, ericbj said:

 

When I sell gold (as I have reluctantly had to do to pay some uninsured hospital fees) depending upon where stored I receive either USD or GBP.  The gold's exchange value is not tied to the purchasing power of the fiat currency.  It is if anything INVERSELY proportional:  the more one goes down the more the other goes up.  Although the relationship is more complicated than that.

 

There is, as might be expected, the law of supply and demand. Growing demand notably from central banks.  Now that  gold is classed as a tier-1 asset by the BIC, it is resuming some of its former importance.

There is high consumer demand in Asia.

Yields from existing mines are falling (which it is claimed is going to be offset by a new exploration technology that can locate, by aerial survey, deposits buried at great depth - but developing new mines can take years)

 

There has been until recently large scale manipulation of the precious-metals markets by some big commercial banks through the selling of contracts for gold (and silver) far in excess of the metal they possessed.  Very occasonally prosecuted, to show that justice was being done, with fines of up to about a billion dollars.  Just a rap over the knuckles to their profits, so they carried on as before.  The commercial banks were not only serving their own financial interests by speculating against the "pet rock" as officialdom derisively labelled it but also serving governments wishing to retain public confidence in their fiat currency.

This profitable game has almost come to an end because growing shortages of the physical metal has led to high demand for physical delivery, rather than settlement with fiat currency as before.  Supplies are very tight.
This has further boosted gold and silver prices.

 

Gold's value has a reputation of keeping pace with inflation over hundreds if not thousands of years.  Difficult to quantify but broadly true over the longer term.  Not always true over the short term.
Inflation by its very definition means loss of value of fiat currency.

 

"Money-printing" tends to push up the stock-market, which in turn tended to hold gold prices down.  Latterly both have been rising at the same time, with gold more than catching up.  In terms of gold the cost of living is going down.

"Smart money" realises the over-bought nature of the stock-market and is diversifying.

There is a short-lived drop in gold and silver prices when  a market crash occurs.  Thought to be due to derivatives speculators having to sell precious metals to meet margin calls.

For trading fees (maximum 0.5%) and storage + insurance fees (maximum 0.12% p.a.) see here:
https://www.bullionvault.com/help/tariff.html

This is for allocated but not segregated gold.  You cannot as a rule withdraw the physical metal.

 

To have the option of withdrawing coins or bars, one can look here:
https://swpcayman.com/

 

Anyone reading this and thinking of buying gold is advised to avoid the trap that some Thais fell into during the 1997 Asian Crisis.  Their gold was stored by the gold dealer, not a specialised bullion storage company.  It was not 'allocated', i.e. in the buyer's name.  Some dealers, obviously trading on credit, went bankrupt.  And the creditors took the gold.

 

Apart from a small emergency stash, store outside your country of origin and your country of residence.

 

 

 

 

Quoting you:

"There is a short-lived drop in gold and silver prices when  a market crash occurs.  Thought to be due to derivatives speculators having to sell precious metals to meet margin calls". 

 

Very good observation. Lot's of "leveraged" accounts will have to sell their Gold to meet "margin calls" elsewhere.

 

I have sold my wife to a Saudi Arabian harem to raise some cash to buy the "dip" in Gold next time around.

13 minutes ago, swissie said:

I have sold my wife to a Saudi Arabian harem

How much gold can you buy for $10..🤫

A low dollar means lower prices for gas. 

 

Lower prices for gas (oil fuel etc) means lower prices for everything. 

 

So at the end of the day, thank you who ? 

47 minutes ago, SingAPorn said:

A low dollar means lower prices for gas. 

 

Lower prices for gas (oil fuel etc) means lower prices for everything. 

 

So at the end of the day, thank you who ? 

Market forces. Come next year we will have an oversupply of oil.

19 hours ago, timendres said:

Those who rely on USD to exist in Thailand need to prepare for what comes next.

The US has seen this level of debt only once before - after WWII.

The solution to the problem was to "devalue" the dollar aggressively, generate

inflation, and in turn, inflate the GDP. This is done by creating USD in quantity.

This reduces the Debt-GDP ratio to something that is more manageable.

The US will do the same thing again. There is no "paying down the debt".

 

The question is, how will this affect the USDTHB exhange rate, which is what

really matters to USD expats. This question cannot be answered definitively.

While the USD will be "inflated", the THB will inflate as well. Predicting the

relative exchange is nigh impossible. What can be predicted is that, regardless

of what happens to the USDTHB exchange rate, inflation will happen in both

currencies. Your cost of living in Thailand is certain to increase.

 

Agreed as regards inflation being an inevitable outcome of "money-printing" and agreed that other currencies will re-align with the USD to preserve export competitiveness if nothing is done to prevent it.

Trump aims to prevent the latter through leveraging tariff threats in diplomatic negotiations.  The Mar-e-Lago Accord. In similar manner the Plaza Accord did in 1985, but differently.