Iran has a second, fairly new oil terminal, on the Gulf of Oman (before the Straits of Hormuz). The challenge is that the Marines have to run the gauntlet through the Straits of Hormuz, and the US Government has given the Iranians, and Houthis, lots and lots of notice, by telling the world about it. There is zero element of surprise. Of course they might not be there for that. Operation Urgent Fury saw 7-8000 marines, in a combined air and sea assault invade the Caribbean island of Grenada, where the opposition was about 700-800 Cuban troops with a couple of armoured cars. Are 2500 Marines enough, even after softening up of Kharg Island? The arrival of the Tripoli to where the Ospreys are within range will be extremely well announced, at the very least, expect Iranian spotters BOTH sides of the Straits. Planners will plan for at least a 3:1 superiority. In the 1970s, US discovered Iran had put ashore a force of about 1000 troops (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-05/kharg-island-iran-oil-terminal-israeli-target/104435510). The island is only 25kms off the Iranian coast. While the runway there has had at least one bomb hit (one wonders why the Americans waited more than a week to hit the airbase there. The Pentagon videos show an airbase with literally no prior damage), the island can easily be reinforced by helicopter. Iran has (had) about 200 transport helicoptors, including Chinooks, and an unlimited number of small surface vessals. In the Iran-Iraq war, Iraq pounded the island. Afterwards, Iran rebuilt the place with hardened bunkers and a network of tunnels (sound familiar). The IDF knows that years of pounding Gaza created more and more of a complex battlefield. Pretty stupid; the Germans found this at Stalingrad. Even if the nearby Imam Sadegh Corps has been smashed to bits, it still has under its command about 10,000 men. The IRGC could probably get over to the island an additional 2-3000 extremely motivated men, dug in, likely armed with RPGs. They will know where the Ospreys will come in; the airport. The 31st MEU consists of 3 elements. VM232 is their Osprey squadron. That could fly in 288 troops in a single wave. Assume losses when landing at the airport; the Osprey is a large, noisy, unarmoured aircraft. Some bloke with a RPG could take pot shots at it quite easily. The Battalion Landing Team has a strength of about 1000 men, of which 200 are HQ/brass. So 800m fighting troops. Those "2500 marines" actually amounts to about 1100 fighting troops. On the eastern side of the island are cliffs. On the Western side, there are various jetties, likely heavily defended. There are a few beaches on then Western side that have a shallow shelving suitable for hovercraft landing. Iran has its own domestic combat Hovercrafts, based on British designs supplied in the 1970s. The American hovercrafts (LCAC) date from the mid-80s. I suspect the Iranians have a pretty good understanding of these, and have prepared the beaches to resist these things landing. They've had 47 years to do that. The whole place could be booby trapped. Consider this; Iran and Iraq were at war with each other for years. Iraq pounded the island, but could not capture it, because even the Iraqis concluded an amphibious assault would be too difficult. Iraq operated Polish made Polnochny-class landing craft. And the Marines will have a unit memory of Iwo Jima, Guadacanal and Saipan. Here is a tour of Kharg Island, what the marines can look forward to seeing: Substantive civilian population of 8000-10,000 Substantial town, numerous narrow streets, housing, basements, sniper nests Important cultural sites, both global but also important to the Sunni/Shia co-religionists, for the entire Gulf region Important national site of mourning for Iran; the Iran-Iraq war united Iran. Even those who backed the Shah, backed Iran in that. Complex industrial areas; storage tanks, pipe works, things that burn well. Think of Mariupol, where a small number of well motivated Ukrainian defenders fended off a much larger Russian force for months Date plantations, providing natural cover for equipment and men Caves. The island is full of caves, natural and man made. This should make a Marine break out in a cold sweat. Restricted access; detailed intel on local topography is limited. This is not an easy place for the Israelis to infiltrate to covertly recce. The media thinks the Americans will seize the island as some sort of bargaining chip. The Iranians will likely think they can't hold it, but can give the Americans a very bloody nose, which might be enough. They would effectively write off the terminal. Their contingency is their Gulf of Oman terminal; could be expanded. And time; America has attention deficit disorder, it gets bored, there are upcoming elections. The Americans will one day go home, more so under the current Administration, which has an aversion to extended operations.
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