16 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

I was relying on the opinions of the engineers who worked on those oil wells, pipelines and storage facilities. You are ignoring the fact that production was cut because of the sanctions. Venezuela's crude storage was already at capacity. Remove the sanctions and allow the free flow of tankers and the existing production capacity not influenced by poor infrastructure will return. Remove the embargo on spare parts and repairs can be made that will address reductions in activity because of repeated breakdowns and reduced activity to prevent breakdowns. There is capacity potential in the existing network that can be returned by doing proper repairs and having enough trained and qualified oil production workers. Are you even aware that the oil sector lost some of its best workers? Having poor quality workers impacts productivity because they are not carrying out repairs and maintenance properly.

I am not claiming that the oil production will immediately return to what it was in the 1970's. It can however quickly return to what it was two years ago. This is what the oil experts are saying too. Goldman Sachs says that in the short term, Venezuela's oil production outlook this year will depend on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves. Removal of the sanctions will have a positive impact.

JPMorgan analysts believe that with a political transition, Venezuela could raise oil production to 1.3-1.4 million bpd within two years and potentially reach 2.5 million bpd over the next decade, up from about 800,000 bpd currently.

To argue otherwise is to say that the sanctions do not impact oil production. The increase in capacity would be gradual, and it is reasonable to expect a 25%+ increase within the next 6-12 months, just through the lifting of sanctions.

Having worked on oil production installations in Libya, Nigeria, offshore Norway and in the North Sea, what you have outlined is not really practical on an everyday basis and is fraught with problems, no matter how skilled the engineers are.

For example just to bring the wells up to full production endangers the whole pipeline and valve system because of the "sediment" that is brought up from below and this can mean huge problems, shutdowns and valve and pipeline replacements – – not a quick or easy job if it is even possible.

As I outlined, and as other experts have outlined, it could be a major long-term problem that will take years to remedy and may not even be financially viable.

On that note, I have seen wells being shut in and abandoned because of what I mentioned above.

2 minutes ago, xylophone said:

Having worked on oil production installations in Libya, Nigeria, offshore Norway and in the North Sea, what you have outlined is not really practical on an everyday basis and is fraught with problems, no matter how skilled the engineers are.

For example just to bring the wells up to full production endangers the whole pipeline and valve system because of the "sediment" that is brought up from below and this can mean huge problems, shutdowns and valve and pipeline replacements – – not a quick or easy job if it is even possible.

As I outlined, and as other experts have outlined, it could be a major long-term problem that will take years to remedy and may not even be financially viable.

On that note, I have seen wells being shut in and abandoned because of what I mentioned above.

Ok. There's is no denying the validity in a general sense of what you wrote. However, the wells, pipelines and storage facilities that are already in use have been negatively impacted by the sanctions and reduced access to spare parts, haven't they?

The lack of skilled and experienced technical people has an impact on productivity doesn't it?

The sanctions impeded sales of the Venezuelan oil did they not?

It's a relatively quick fix to lift sanctions and to allow spare parts to enter. That would preserve the current production level, and address some of the activity that was voluntarily reduced for fear of a part breaking down. If the fear of working in Venezuela s lifted, then some of the skilled workers will return which will help with maintenance and staffing. Exports can increase if they are not sanctioned.

I think the oil analysts have a good handle on the situation, and I'll go with their analysis.

There are a lot of problems in the modern world. There's drug trafficking, nazism, fascism, and other global problems. I am sure that Vlad understands that drug trafficking in Venezuela and Greenland is the Donald's area of expertise and is sympathetic to the situation.

1 hour ago, Patong2021 said:

I was relying on the opinions of the engineers who worked on those oil wells, pipelines and storage facilities. You are ignoring the fact that production was cut because of the sanctions. Venezuela's crude storage was already at capacity. Remove the sanctions and allow the free flow of tankers and the existing production capacity not influenced by poor infrastructure will return. Remove the embargo on spare parts and repairs can be made that will address reductions in activity because of repeated breakdowns and reduced activity to prevent breakdowns. There is capacity potential in the existing network that can be returned by doing proper repairs and having enough trained and qualified oil production workers. Are you even aware that the oil sector lost some of its best workers? Having poor quality workers impacts productivity because they are not carrying out repairs and maintenance properly.

I am not claiming that the oil production will immediately return to what it was in the 1970's. It can however quickly return to what it was two years ago. This is what the oil experts are saying too. Goldman Sachs says that in the short term, Venezuela's oil production outlook this year will depend on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves. Removal of the sanctions will have a positive impact.

JPMorgan analysts believe that with a political transition, Venezuela could raise oil production to 1.3-1.4 million bpd within two years and potentially reach 2.5 million bpd over the next decade, up from about 800,000 bpd currently.

To argue otherwise is to say that the sanctions do not impact oil production. The increase in capacity would be gradual, and it is reasonable to expect a 25%+ increase within the next 6-12 months, just through the lifting of sanctions.

It is estimated by some that it will take 100 billion dollars and four years of hard work to get Venezuela back to three million barrels a day.

6 hours ago, lou norman said:

I suspect that Putin and Xi will be thrilled that Trump has essentially redefined the world into three spheres of influence. I take South America, Vlad can have Europe and Xi takes Asia.

More popcorn please.

2 hours ago, candide said:

Actually, on short term, Putin will benefit from it:

• Russia may export more oil to China to replace Venezuelian oil

• Domestically, it justifies his 'NATO threat to Russia' argument,

• Internationally, it may also contribute to justify his "special operation" in Ukraine to dislodge an "illegitimate' regime (his words, not mine).

There is no reason for Venezuelan exports to China to cease unless Trump stops them, which I doubt—think rare earths.

Unless both are afraid of Trump, Putin may feel justified in expanding his sphere into parts of NATO, and Xi may decide it is time to take Taiwan.

8 minutes ago, still kicking said:

Russians will be fine, according to the Murdoch press they are fighting for years with shovels and washing machine parts, they don't need much money for hardware.

2 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

However, the wells, pipelines and storage facilities that are already in use have been negatively impacted by the sanctions and reduced access to spare parts, haven't they?

The lack of skilled and experienced technical people has an impact on productivity doesn't it?

When oil production is cut back, i.e. reducing the flow of oil through the pipeline and wellheads, it creates huge problems when trying to get the flow back to what it was before and it's not a straightforward operation and no amount of "skilled and experienced technical people" can do much to help/offset this.

As others in the industry have said, it will take many years and billions of dollars, so any hope for a return to the status quo as it was, say 10 years ago is never going to be a quick fix.

And another problem is that Venezuela's oil reserves are largely of "extra-heavy crude oil" which might "not be economical to produce" under certain market conditions to add to the mess which I foresee looming in this situation – – many problems ahead and I don't see it being an easy "fix".

On 1/4/2026 at 3:06 PM, Social Media said:

Russia Panics As Trump’s Venezuela Raid Threatens Their Oil revenue

Fear is ripping through Russia’s political and security circles after Donald Trump’s dramatic military raid in Venezuela — and the shock arrest of Nicolás Maduro — triggered warnings that Moscow’s oil-dependent economy could now be pushed to the brink.

The Kremlin blasted the U.S. operation as “armed aggression,” but the reaction inside Russia has been far more raw — and far more panicked.

One prominent pro-Kremlin military blogger branded the raid “a total f*ing disaster,”** warning that if the U.S. seizes control of Venezuela’s massive oil reserves, Russia’s ability to survive economically could collapse.

Another furious post raged that Russians would soon “starve to death” once Washington drives down global oil prices and wipes out Russia’s export revenue — the financial backbone funding both the state and the war machine.

Even billionaire oligarch Oleg Deripaska sounded the alarm, saying the U.S. now appears poised to control more than half of the world’s oil reserves, after extending its reach over Venezuela and Guyana.

He warned bluntly that Washington’s goal will be to lock oil prices below $50 a barrel, a price point that would devastate Russia’s already-strained economy.

“This means our sacred state-capitalism will find it difficult to leave everything as it is,” Deripaska warned darkly.

Others dropped the euphemisms altogether.

One enraged military blogger called the situation “checkmate for the entire economy,” saying Russia is now staring down the barrel of tax hikes, collapsing revenues and social chaos — while the U.S. cements control over the global oil system.

“The Americans have just extended their existence for several more centuries, while ours will end in a month,” he wrote — accusing Moscow’s leadership of sleepwalking into catastrophe.

Meanwhile, Maduro — once a crucial Russian ally — is now in U.S. custody facing drug-trafficking and weapons charges. Attorney General Pam Bondi vowed he will face “the full wrath of American justice.”

For the Kremlin, the symbolism could not be clearer: Washington just removed one of Moscow’s closest partners — and seized the oil fields Russia was counting on to survive sanctions and fund the state.

No wonder the panic is setting in.

Key Takeaways

1. Russia fears economic collapse if the U.S. controls Venezuelan oil
   Russian oligarchs and pro-war bloggers warn oil prices could be forced below $50 — crippling Russia’s sanctions-hit economy.

2. Pro-Kremlin voices turn furious and desperate
   Influential bloggers accuse Moscow’s leadership of total failure, warning Russians may “starve to death” as U.S. energy dominance expands.

3. Maduro’s fall is a strategic humiliation for the Kremlin
   The loss of a key ally — and his capture by the U.S. — sends shockwaves through Moscow, exposing just how fragile Russia’s economic lifeline really is.

SOURCE: EXPRESS

the US has been pursuing a oil tanker for the past 2-3 weeks and so far still not able to stop it, they painted the Russian flag on the tanker and last week Russia send a request to the WH to stop pursuing the tanker as it's registered to Russian company, let's see what Trump will do, will he fold to Putin demands???

The tanker recently claimed Russian protection. On Wednesday, the Russian government formally asked the United States to stop chasing the ship

Oil Tanker Fleeing U.S. Coast Guard Broadcasts Location in North Atlantic

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/02/us/politics/oil-tanker-russia-north-atlantic.html

3 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

I was relying on the opinions of the engineers who worked on those oil wells, pipelines and storage facilities. You are ignoring the fact that production was cut because of the sanctions. Venezuela's crude storage was already at capacity. Remove the sanctions and allow the free flow of tankers and the existing production capacity not influenced by poor infrastructure will return. Remove the embargo on spare parts and repairs can be made that will address reductions in activity because of repeated breakdowns and reduced activity to prevent breakdowns. There is capacity potential in the existing network that can be returned by doing proper repairs and having enough trained and qualified oil production workers. Are you even aware that the oil sector lost some of its best workers? Having poor quality workers impacts productivity because they are not carrying out repairs and maintenance properly.

I am not claiming that the oil production will immediately return to what it was in the 1970's. It can however quickly return to what it was two years ago. This is what the oil experts are saying too. Goldman Sachs says that in the short term, Venezuela's oil production outlook this year will depend on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves. Removal of the sanctions will have a positive impact.

JPMorgan analysts believe that with a political transition, Venezuela could raise oil production to 1.3-1.4 million bpd within two years and potentially reach 2.5 million bpd over the next decade, up from about 800,000 bpd currently.

To argue otherwise is to say that the sanctions do not impact oil production. The increase in capacity would be gradual, and it is reasonable to expect a 25%+ increase within the next 6-12 months, just through the lifting of sanctions.

When I see the words Goldman Sachs, my heart is filled with existential dread.

8 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

the US has been pursuing a oil tanker for the past 2-3 weeks and so far still not able to stop it, they painted the Russian flag on the tanker and last week Russia send a request to the WH to stop pursuing the tanker as it's registered to Russian company, let's see what Trump will do, will he fold to Putin demands???

The tanker recently claimed Russian protection. On Wednesday, the Russian government formally asked the United States to stop chasing the ship

Oil Tanker Fleeing U.S. Coast Guard Broadcasts Location in North Atlantic

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/02/us/politics/oil-tanker-russia-north-atlantic.html

You people want WW3 you really scare me.

None of this makes sense. According to many posters in here Putin is Trumps bestie.

Why would he do something that was bad for his bestie.

No need to answer I already know.

7 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

That's nice.

However, it's not that simple.

Which country is dependent upon cheap Venezuelan oil? Answer: Cuba

Which country is the largest importer of Venezuelan crude? Answer: China

Venezuela's exports hit roughly 921,000 bpd in November 2025, according to Reuters, with China taking about 80% of the total (some 746,000 bpd)

Know that song Under Pressure? now consider that Iran is the largest oil supplier to China.

Disrupting Venezuelan oil exports in the short term will hurt Cuba and China.

Disrupting in the long term hurts Russia.

This was a strategic decision and I think it gets to the heart of the US national defence strategy of clipping the wings of China and Russia.

Next up is neutralizing Iran. No need to do anything to Cuba because it will have big problems without the venezuelan oil.

Whoever came up with the. strategy is smart. It's minimally invasive and has significant impact. The small minded will obsess over the US visit to caracas. The people who see the big picture will know that Iran and a regime change is next, and that this is all done to contain China and Russia.

An unfortunate error in your presentation of possibilities is that while Cuba may be injured more the percentage of total imports of oil by China from Venezuela is in single digits.

The impact on China is mainly on damaging it's historical strategy of infrastructural development assistance and economic dependency.

The world has no urgent "need" for Venezuelan oil .

The US has an urgent need to counter the desertion of the Petro dollar , the IMF, World Bank.

Having dropped the US into an economic black hole Trump seems to be being advised that the fix is to drag the rest of the world lower than itself !

I wonder if Barron has bone spurs or flat feet ?

This sad party is not over yet !

8 hours ago, CallumWK said:

Of Venezuela's exports, Chevron ships roughly 120,000 to 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil to US refiners, making up such a tiny share of US imports so as to be effectively zeroed. For that reason, León said, US consumers are likely to notice little to no difference at the gas pump, where crude oil pricing makes up roughly half of the per-barrel price of gas.

"I don't think it's a matter of a few months," León told Yahoo Finance. "I think we're talking about years, three to five years, before we see Venezuela exporting, let's say, 2 million barrels per day."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-maduros-capture-affects-oil-markets-will-depend-on-venezuelas-political-climate-173333866.html

Also, so far none of the big US oil companies has expressed interest in coughing up 58 billion USD to invest in Venezuela. Even Chevron, the only US oil company active in Venezuela, has said that they will operate by the rules.

With ExxonMobil booking $4.7 billion in annual adjusted earnings from nearby Guyana in 2024, I doubt they'll be in any great rush to sort out Venezuela's production problems.

46 minutes ago, 0ffshore360 said:

The impact on China is mainly on damaging it's historical strategy of infrastructural development assistance and economic dependency.

I've heard it proposed that this is the crux of the matter. As it has done in many places, China has made loans of around 10 billion USD for infrastructure development, mainly ports, and is accepting oil as payment.

11 hours ago, Peabody said:

I've heard it proposed that this is the crux of the matter. As it has done in many places, China has made loans of around 10 billion USD for infrastructure development, mainly ports, and is accepting oil as payment.

It's called paying the bills for work done the US approach is simple thug power theft because he can. The Nobel Prize winner Trump rs licker is finding she isn't needed as she might actually be popular and democratic whearas Trump just wants the oil. Even Hitler wasn't that "crude" to pardon a pun.