2 hours ago, Yagoda said:

I doubt the effectiveness of a "drone swarm" against a moving target with layered defenses 1000 miles away.

US carriers in the Taiwan Province Strait would not be 1000 miles away.

7 minutes ago, NoDisplayName said:

Try this:

"Authoritarian regimes rarely have top notch military leaders, because what is needed are officers willing to take the initiative."

Better? Authoritarian no likey-likey underlings takey-takey initiative.

The inherent nature of authoritarian/communism/socialism is to disparage individual initiative. The ideology by its very foundation is digressive through and through and certainly does not inspire individual initiative.

And yet, how many of the world's billionaire are Chinese?

1 hour ago, novacova said:

Lei’s Real Talk on YouTube puts china’s population at 300-400 million…

I've seen several stories about this. There seems to be some truth to it. They aren't missing a billion, but they may well be around 900 million.

6 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

And yet, how many of the world's billionaire are Chinese?

Nobody wants to be the richest man in China as you get scrutiny and a shakedown and lose 90% of your wealth for "the people" whears in the US they get to build rockets to willy wave whilst the infrastucture rots and they hollow out societies whilst blaming "look over there" - hanging a billionaire now and Again concentrates the minds of the rest. As it should be. Even Wei-wei has returned to the mother ship - he made the mistake of calling out the Gaza genocide and got cancelled for his sins.

36 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

And yet, how many of the world's billionaire are Chinese?

On the backs of the poor?

China’s Wealthy: population 17,000,000. Average annual income $62397usd.

Middle class: population 336,000,000. Average annual income $10857usd.

Poor: population 1,058,000,000. Average annual income $3872usd.

3 hours ago, emptypockets said:

The days of military guys lifting a rifle are well and truly over in the sense of modern warfare, not street to street fighting.

AI and drones are the modern warfare systems.

Weird, I remember the USA flying in all active military leadership in from around the world, so that they can be told to their face that a very special fatso does not like to see equally unhealthy-looking generals walking around the White House.

I must have been mistaken, because this same guy is planning actual wars, so there is a good chance that those generals will be field-tested in the near future (maybe even in the sunny uplands of Greenland).

1 hour ago, NoDisplayName said:

"Authoritarian regimes rarely have top notch military leaders, because what is needed are officers willing to take the initiative."

Not bad, but should read authoritarian regimes rarely have top notch military leaders, because authoritarian regimes discourage officers from independently taking the initiative.

1 hour ago, NoDisplayName said:

Better? Authoritarian no likey-likey underlings takey-takey initiative.

Hopefully, thats simple enough for the China shills to understand.

1 hour ago, novacova said:

The inherent nature of authoritarian/communism/socialism is to disparage individual initiative. The ideology by its very foundation is digressive through and through and certainly does not inspire individual initiative.

One can only feel sorry for Field Marshall Paulus

2 minutes ago, jts-khorat said:

Weird, I remember the USA flying in all active military leadership in from around the world, so that they can be told to their face that a very special fatso does not like to see equally unhealthy-looking generals walking around the White House.

You lost me on that one. What are you talking about?

59 minutes ago, novacova said:

The inherent nature of authoritarian/communism/socialism is to disparage individual initiative. The ideology by its very foundation is digressive through and through and certainly does not inspire individual initiative.

Au contraire to the defenders, but you're right,it doesn't inspire initiative, it inspires useful idiots to defend the lack of it.

3 minutes ago, jts-khorat said:

Weird, I remember the USA flying in all active military leadership in from around the world, so that they can be told to their face that a very special fatso does not like to see equally unhealthy-looking generals walking around the White House.

I must have been mistaken, because this same guy is planning actual wars, so there is a good chance that those generals will be field-tested in the near future (maybe even in the sunny uplands of Greenland).

Just thinking that myself in total silence and lest we forget his parade where they took the real p1ss...

1 hour ago, NoDisplayName said:

US carriers in the Taiwan Province Strait would not be 1000 miles away.

US carriers would not be in the Strait if war broke out. The combat range of a Growler is about 900 miles, F-35s have combat range of 1200 miles and Strike Eagles about 800 miles. That means US carriers will use the Phillipines, and Okinawa as cover, steaming at 30 knots per hour. You do the math.

If Trump can send an armada to Venezuela and kidnap its leader on a whim - Xi sending an expeditionary force to reunite the rogue island with the legitimate motherland won't be worth spilling a drop of US blood for. Besides the orange one has said as much. Taiwan nicked US semiconductors apparently in Trump world.Every war game the Pentagon does on this has several Pearl harbours in the first 72 hours - never mind the utter carnage in the markets that would be almost incalcuable. Anyway this diatribe is the US's suicide note.

2 hours ago, emptypockets said:

I was watching the History channel about the Nazis, unsurprisingly.

They had the world beat. Until the US became involved.

The leadership knew that once the industrial factories of the US ramped up, they were doomed. And they were right.

Good luck with any country keeping up with China. Most countries have exported their manufacturing capability to China over the last few decades.

Not sure how this will end, but not feeling good about it.

Having said that, I've been friends with a few Chinese people over the years and their lives don't seem much different to ours. All want to make money and have a good life. Not sure the dystopian scenoario that we are lead to believe actually happens in day to day life.

In a modern world war, what you start with is all you have. In today's world, it's easy to reach out and strike someone with ICBMs.

3 hours ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

Indigenous population who have been replaced in their homelands always turn to grog. Whether its aboriginals in the NT, or American Indians across the continent, or indeed displaced Brits that sought refuge in the costa del crime or Pattaya. They lost their homelands, they lost their hopes and dreams. The bottle always has its arms out, eager with its warm embrace.

Interesting. So what will MAGA do when Daddy dies?

1 hour ago, Alan Zweibel said:

So, I decided to go to an independent referee names Gemini AI. You can it yourself if you don't believe the response it gave me. Here it is in its entirety including my question which I have put into italics:

Can you give the takeaway on the following piece of prose?

Whatever the case may be with this story, regimes of the kind headed by Xi rarely have top notch military leaders because you need someone not reluctant to take the initiative in times of war. Someone who won't put up with the kind of micromanagement leadersmegalomaniacs like Xi, out of paranoia and megalomania, are prone to exercise. As Helmuth von Moltke once write:

No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the main enemy forces. Only the layman believes that in the course of a campaign he sees the consistent implementation of an original thought that has been considered in advance in every detail and retained to the end.

The core takeaway of this passage is a critique of the structural incompatibility between autocratic leadership and military excellence. The author argues that the very nature of a "megalomaniacal" regime prevents it from cultivating the flexible, independent leadership required to win a modern war.

Here is the breakdown of the primary arguments:

1. The Loyalty vs. Initiative Paradox

For a military to be "top-notch," its commanders must possess the initiative to make high-stakes decisions in the heat of battle without waiting for permission. However, in a regime defined by paranoia (like Xi’s), independence is often viewed as a political threat.

• The Result: The system selects for "yes-men" rather than tacticians. The most capable leaders—those who would push back against poor orders—are filtered out or suppressed.

2. The Failure of Micromanagement

The text suggests that leaders like Xi attempt to control every detail from the top. In a military context, this is a fatal flaw.

• Paranoia as a Barrier: A leader’s need for total control (megalomania) creates a bottleneck.

• Strategic Paralysis: If a general is too afraid of their own leader to deviate from a pre-approved plan, the military cannot respond to the evolving chaos of a battlefield.

3. The "Moltke Reality Check"

The inclusion of Helmuth von Moltke’s famous maxim reinforces the idea that rigidity equals defeat. * The Layman’s Illusion: Only those who don't understand war believe a plan can be followed to the letter from start to finish.

• The "First Encounter": Moltke’s point is that once the shooting starts, the "original thought" usually becomes obsolete. Success depends on the ability of local commanders to adapt—the exact thing an autocratic system forbids.

---

The "Bottom Line"

The author is making a case that political survival and military effectiveness are at odds in China’s current system. To have a great military, Xi would have to empower leaders who might eventually have the power to challenge him; because he won't do that, his military will likely remain rigid, brittle, and unable to handle the unpredictability of a real conflict.

Would you like me to look into historical examples where this kind of "dictator micromanagement" led to a significant military collapse?

Sorry, I dont bother with AI, simply because I am able to do my own thinking.

2 minutes ago, TedG said:

In a modern world war, what you start with is all you have. In today's world, it's easy to reach out and strike someone with ICBMs.

If the US had stayed out of WW1 there would have been no Nazis , no holocaust and probably the death of communism. Biggest mistake of the 20th century to get involved in European imperial squabbles.

2 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

If the US had stayed out of WW1 there would have been no Nazis , no holocaust and probably the death of communism. Biggest mistake of the 20th century to get involved in European imperial squabbles.

That is an excellent point

8 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

If the US had stayed out of WW1 there would have been no Nazis , no holocaust and probably the death of communism. Biggest mistake of the 20th century to get involved in European imperial squabbles.

No, the Treaty of Versailles did all the damage.

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

If that thinking ends at Trump worshipping then AI would be an improvement.

In this case it's not so much Trump worshipping as it is reflexive hostility, and also a willingness to suspend critical faculties if someone supports your belief.

The report he cites comes from Epoch Times which has a long history of conflict with the Chinese govt. Epoch Times is affiliated with Falun Gong, a kind of nutty cult, which fell afoul of the Chinese authorities. So I pointed out that they are not a trustworthy source. As I also pointed out, it doesn't mean that their report is false, just that it should be taken with a grain of salt.

His reply to that: "Blocked in China. Thats a bona fide for those of us who view China as an existential revanchist threat."

Sad.

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43 minutes ago, Alan Zweibel said:

In this case it's not so much Trump worshipping as it is reflexive hostility, and also a willingness to suspend critical faculties if someone supports your belief.

The report he cites comes from Epoch Times which has a long history of conflict with the Chinese govt. Epoch Times is affiliated with Falun Gong, a kind of nutty cult, which fell afoul of the Chinese authorities. So I pointed out that they are not a trustworthy source. As I also pointed out, it doesn't mean that their report is false, just that it should be taken with a grain of salt.

His reply to that: "Blocked in China. Thats a bona fide for those of us who view China as an existential revanchist threat."

Sad.

Generally regarded as a slur. But in an aegument between the CCP and Falun Gong, Id probably lean more towards trusting the Gongs. The CCP as we know are outright evil.

Interested to know if the FalunGong have been losing their little minds over the big beautiful tariffs like the CCP and their lickspittle supporters have?😉

Let's see - Australia along with every other country has been slapped with a 10% tariff, even though the USA has a positive trade balance with Australia.

Big Pharma wants Australians to be paying the same amount for medications as Americans do. Our socialist Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme eats into its profits.

We are being asked to shell out $360 billion for secondhand Virginia - class nuclear submarines, which will be obsolete by the time Australia gets them. If we ever do, given how erratic US governance is.

Our trade with China is in surplus, and 4 times the level of trade with America. China uses the rapier of quotas rather than the bludgeon of tariffs, with most Australian goods being tariff-free.

China is undisputed world leader in renewable energy. China has more than 48000 km of high speed rail as defined by a speed of 250 km/hr. America has ZERO.

True, America spends considerably more than China on military hardware. Economically, different story.

Quite a few Americans don't realize how much damage the Trump administration has done to former staunch allies. Just ask Canadians, Danes and Mexicans.

11 minutes ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

Generally regarded as a slur. But in an aegument between the CCP and Falun Gong, Id probably lean more towards trusting the Gongs. The CCP as we know are outright evil.

Interested to know if the FalunGong have been losing their little minds over the big beautiful tariffs like the CCP and their lickspittle supporters have?😉

Deliberately or negligently causing the deaths of millions in pursuit of any ideological goal, including a communist utopia, is widely regarded as evil . Maoism, as the ideology associated with Mao Zedong and his rule in China from 1949 to 1976, is often criticized on exactly these grounds due to the massive human cost of its policies.

The Trump is a Fascist comrades are trying desperately to gain the higher ground. History can't be erased.

"Based on Wikipedia articles and linked historical studies, the death toll associated with Maoism, primarily during Mao Zedong's rule in China (1949–1976), is estimated to range from 40 to 80 million victims. These deaths were primarily caused by famine, political purging, forced labor, and massacres".

39 minutes ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

Generally regarded as a slur. But in an aegument between the CCP and Falun Gong, Id probably lean more towards trusting the Gongs. The CCP as we know are outright evil.

Interested to know if the FalunGong have been losing their little minds over the big beautiful tariffs like the CCP and their lickspittle supporters have?😉

Let me know when the USA fascist Government is acknowledged by google and when its responsible for killing 100 million of its citizens similar to its ideological opponent Communism.Until then, it can be said the left is doing what they are accusing you of doing.

Google ai overview:

"Based on historical records, there has not been a fascist government in the United States, and therefore, no recorded, official death toll under a "fascist USA" regime. Fascism is a 20th-century European ideology that was opposed by the United States during World War II".

1 hour ago, TedG said:

No, the Treaty of Versailles did all the damage.

Not all, but it helped the rise of Socialism in Germany

Posts with derogatory nicknames, intentional misspellings, or personal remarks will be removed. Spell names correctly for all sides of the debate.

1 hour ago, riclag said:

Deliberately or negligently causing the deaths of millions in pursuit of any ideological goal, including a communist utopia, is widely regarded as evil . Maoism, as the ideology associated with Mao Zedong and his rule in China from 1949 to 1976, is often criticized on exactly these grounds due to the massive human cost of its policies.

The Trump is a Fascist comrades are trying desperately to gain the higher ground. History can't be erased.

"Based on Wikipedia articles and linked historical studies, the death toll associated with Maoism, primarily during Mao Zedong's rule in China (1949–1976), is estimated to range from 40 to 80 million victims. These deaths were primarily caused by famine, political purging, forced labor, and massacres".

1 hour ago, riclag said:

Let me know when the USA fascist Government is acknowledged by google and when its responsible for killing 100 million of its citizens similar to its ideological opponent Communism.Until then, it can be said the left is doing what they are accusing you of doing.

Google ai overview:

"Based on historical records, there has not been a fascist government in the United States, and therefore, no recorded, official death toll under a "fascist USA" regime. Fascism is a 20th-century European ideology that was opposed by the United States during World War II".

Can someone explain to me what riclag's comment has to do with the subject of this thread?

1 hour ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

Generally regarded as a slur. But in an aegument between the CCP and Falun Gong, Id probably lean more towards trusting the Gongs. The CCP as we know are outright evil.

Interested to know if the FalunGong have been losing their little minds over the big beautiful tariffs like the CCP and their lickspittle supporters have?😉

Why do you hve choose between evil and nutty? Maybe there's a third option? Like finding other, more rational sources?

8 hours ago, Yagoda said:

Demographic concerns. Aging leadership. Out of balance economy. And now this:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/ignored-orders-and-growing-resistance-in-chinese-military-after-purge-of-top-generals-5978046?src_src=epochHG&src_cmp=rcp

The thing that struck me was the photos of the top military guys. They dont look like they could even lift a rifle.

Is China all show, and no substance? Does this mean that China will be forced to attack Taiwan simply to demonstrate it can?

First off, this report comes from the Epoch Times which is affiliated with Falun Gong, a rather nutty cult that was persecuted by the Chinese government. So their objectivity is suspect. I'm not saying that their report isn't factual. Just that it needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

Whatever the case may be with this story, regimes of the kind headed by Xi rarely have top notch military leaders because you need someone not reluctant to take the initiative in times of war. Someone who won't put up with the kind of micromanagement leaders like Xi, out of paranoia and megalomania, are prone to exercise. As Helmuth von Moltke once wrote:

1. No plan of operations reaches with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy's main force.

   Kriegsgechichtliche Einzelschriften (1880); often quoted as, ‘No plan survives first contact with the enemy’

   https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780191866692.001.0001/q-oro-ed6-00007547

4 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Nobody wants to be the richest man in China as you get scrutiny and a shakedown and lose 90% of your wealth for "the people" whears in the US they get to build rockets to willy wave whilst the infrastucture rots and they hollow out societies whilst blaming "look over there" - hanging a billionaire now and Again concentrates the minds of the rest. As it should be. Even Wei-wei has returned to the mother ship - he made the mistake of calling out the Gaza genocide and got cancelled for his sins.

How did wei wei return to the "mothership if he lives in Portugal?

He criticizes the west, yet insists on living there?