17 minutes ago, Roadsternut said:

Kuwait just cut oil production. Not because Iran bombed a single Kuwaiti oil well. Not because sanctions were imposed. Not because OPEC ordered a reduction. Because the tanks are full and there is nowhere to put the oil. Kuwait produced 2.8 million barrels per day before February 28. Every day since, that oil has flowed from the wells into onshore storage tanks. Every day since, zero tankers have loaded at Kuwaiti export terminals because the Strait of Hormuz is closed to commercial shipping. JPMorgan estimated an 18 day storage runway. Today is day 18. The tanks are full. The math completed itself. Kuwait declared force majeure and began curtailing production. Iraq cut 1.5 million barrels per day last week for the same reason. The same storage arithmetic is now counting down in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.

Effectively, an oil blockade is in place because of GPS intereferance in a war zone.

https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-invisible-siege-how-insurance?r=6p7b5o&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true&_src_ref=t.co

These storage tanks are juicy targets for Iranian drones and missiles.

https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-invisible-siege-how-insurance?r=6p7b5o&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true&_src_ref=t.co

That link you posted above Roadsternut is extremely worrying.

I can't profess to understand every term but the author seems to be implying it's going to be impossible to have any tanker moving through the Strait of Hormuz for months due to no insurance cover forthcoming.

Who can guarantee Iran won't shoot off a drone or missile at a tanker passing through, regardless of the general destruction caused by US and Israeli bombing?

Then there's the problem of damage caused to oil wells in the Gulf by being forcibly shut down.

The world wide implications of this war are expanding daily- fertiliser production drastically cut, for example.

If the tankers really can't move, how long before the airlines start to run out of fuel and planes are grounded for months?

18 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

These storage tanks are juicy targets for Iranian drones and missiles.

I don't think they will be targeted. Waste of munitiopns, as these can be relatively easily repaired.

The longer the tanks are full, the longer the Kuwaiti oil fields are shutdown, causing damage. When oil wells are shut in under reservoir pressure, the formation can suffer permanent damage. Asphaltene precipitation, fines migration, clay swelling, and pressure depletion can reduce long term recovery rates by 15-30 percent even after wells reopen. The 1991 Gulf War shut downs caused 10-25 percent recovery loss in some Kuwaiti fields.

A sustained shutdown of the Arab oil fields could destroy their economies. The rulers of these States are not hanging from lamp posts because they basically bribe the populace, with free houses, free healthcare, free schools, non-jobs. There is a general understanding there is an AI bubble, and its going to burst. Its such that its sucking nearly all of the investment in areas like healthcare. Truely extraordinary whats going on. This war will likely hasten that burst, as the Arabs pull their investments from the US, and its certainly killed the idea that the Arab economies will move from oil-based to data economies. Missile batteries for data centres?

You'd hope the American battle assessment are correct/truthful (compared to other wars, the reportage from the government has literally be sensationalist as they post videos that mix footage with Call of Duty with Pokemon....). At the moment people are banking on the reported fall in Iranian missile/drone (the stats provided seem to be only from the US government, not independant source, may need to take a closer look), being due to the loss of $500 drone launchers. These don't look terribly hard to make, and probably can be fabbed up by any truck body workshop.

https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/wsj_states_iranian_kamikaze_drones_used_by_russians_creates_new_dangers_for_ukraines_troops-4257.html

37 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

These storage tanks are juicy targets for Iranian drones and missiles.

4 minutes ago, bannork said:

https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-invisible-siege-how-insurance?r=6p7b5o&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true&_src_ref=t.co

That link you posted above Roadsternut is extremely worrying.

I can't profess to understand every term but the author seems to be implying it's going to be impossible to have any tanker moving through the Strait of Hormuz for months due to no insurance cover forthcoming.

Who can guarantee Iran won't shoot off a drone or missile at a tanker passing through, regardless of the general destruction caused by US and Israeli bombing?

Then there's the problem of damage caused to oil wells in the Gulf by being forcibly shut down.

The world wide implications of this war are expanding daily- fertiliser production drastically cut, for example.

If the tankers really can't move, how long before the airlines start to run out of fuel and planes are grounded for months?

There is other sources of oil, so I guess for the rest of us, life will get a lot more expensive, more of us will be out of work, evicted, online drop shipment incomes dry up, inability to meet Thai visa requirements, lose homes etc. The Middle Eastern Airlines will of course be toast, and no one will want those A380s with the $20k suites, any more than they wanted the Thai A380s now rotting at BKK.

A Thought Leadership piece explaining that US Govt intervention in the shipping insurance market might not work.

https://www.kennedyslaw.com/en/thought-leadership/article/2026/war-with-iran-implications-for-the-insurance-market/

More on how electronic intereferance in comms is impacting shipping

https://insidegnss.com/gnss-interference-complicates-navigation-as-hormuz-shipping-disruption-deepens/

It underlines how utterly dependant our lives are on data streams. Reportedly, target selection in Iran used basically Claude AI, possibly an unlicensed version. The DoW has basically blacklisted Anthropic, because of its refusal to acede to DoW's requests how its integrated in AI-enabled autonomous weapons system. The DoW basically wanted SkyNet without human intervention. Mounds of crushed human skulls by July 4 2028.

Post not meeting forum standards removed. @Roadsternut

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So apparently the US-Israeli objective is to destroy Iran as a functioning country, letting it fracture into a series of failed ethnic microstates, constantly at war with each other over water. Millions will die. Somalia x 1000.

The Iranian strategy is to destroy the GCC economies; expatriates flee, destroy desalination plants, close down the Straits of Hormuz, starve the remaining population, uprisings and overthrow of the various fake monarchy. Millions will die but Pax Islamica established. Collapse of economies in Asia.

Of course neither plan might not work, so someone needs to force the issue, and only one side can. And that side is on a strict timetable to get this war "done". We worried about Russia being the first to use nuclear weapons since 1945, but there is a possibility of an inpatient US, struck by hubris, going there. Or worse, a US trying to desperately preserve these GCC states. GCC-Saud investments are disproportionally invested in large cap companies, tech and finance.

And will Europe sit idly by as their own economies are destroyed by the impacts of crashing economies in APAC? They might intervene.

This has the makings of a complete mess. Looking for which bolt hole in the world I can go to, to sit this out. Where is JD Vance?

3 hours ago, Roadsternut said:

I don't think they will be targeted. Waste of munitiopns, as these can be relatively easily repaired.

The longer the tanks are full, the longer the Kuwaiti oil fields are shutdown, causing damage. When oil wells are shut in under reservoir pressure, the formation can suffer permanent damage. Asphaltene precipitation, fines migration, clay swelling, and pressure depletion can reduce long term recovery rates by 15-30 percent even after wells reopen. The 1991 Gulf War shut downs caused 10-25 percent recovery loss in some Kuwaiti fields.

A sustained shutdown of the Arab oil fields could destroy their economies. The rulers of these States are not hanging from lamp posts because they basically bribe the populace, with free houses, free healthcare, free schools, non-jobs. There is a general understanding there is an AI bubble, and its going to burst. Its such that its sucking nearly all of the investment in areas like healthcare. Truely extraordinary whats going on. This war will likely hasten that burst, as the Arabs pull their investments from the US, and its certainly killed the idea that the Arab economies will move from oil-based to data economies. Missile batteries for data centres?

You'd hope the American battle assessment are correct/truthful (compared to other wars, the reportage from the government has literally be sensationalist as they post videos that mix footage with Call of Duty with Pokemon....). At the moment people are banking on the reported fall in Iranian missile/drone (the stats provided seem to be only from the US government, not independant source, may need to take a closer look), being due to the loss of $500 drone launchers. These don't look terribly hard to make, and probably can be fabbed up by any truck body workshop.

https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/wsj_states_iranian_kamikaze_drones_used_by_russians_creates_new_dangers_for_ukraines_troops-4257.html

What are these storage tanks made of? If they caught fire how much damage would there be?

https://timesofoman.com/article/169185-irans-fm-condemns-us-attack-on-qeshms-freshwater-desalination-plant-warns-of-grave-consequences

Iranian desalination plant destroyed.

Geneva Protocols

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/api-1977/article-54?activeTab=

1. Starvation of civilians as a method of warfare is prohibited.

2. It is prohibited to attack, destroy, remove or render useless objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population, such as foodstuffs, agricultural areas for the production of foodstuffs, crops, livestock, drinking water installations and supplies and irrigation works, for the specific purpose of denying them for their sustenance value to the civilian population or to the adverse Party, whatever the motive, whether in order to starve out civilians, to cause them to move away, or for any other motive.

8 minutes ago, Roadsternut said:

https://timesofoman.com/article/169185-irans-fm-condemns-us-attack-on-qeshms-freshwater-desalination-plant-warns-of-grave-consequences

Iranian desalination plant destroyed.

Geneva Protocols

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/api-1977/article-54?activeTab=

So it was a war crime

Inappropriate language to describe the war/military operations dead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/03/07/trump-dover-dignified-transfer-soldiers-iran/

Evolution of man.

Presidential sloppy salute. Vance is much more respectful. Apparently the Chinese baseball cap (on sale for $55) was worn because he was worried about his hair.

the killed soldiers that died because Trump's war deserved some respect same applies to their families, instead the no class no education moron governing the USA didn't care and show up at the dignified transfer with a baseball cap on his head maybe he was afraid his (no) smart brain would flow away

Well, as others bowed their heads, Trump did not appear to do so. Also, he wore a white USA baseball cap that he did not take off during the ceremony.

Donald Trump ripped for behavior at dignified transfer: ‘Take your (expletive) hat off’

Yahoo News

Donald Trump ripped for behavior at dignified transfer: ‘...

It will be interesting to see if Trump responds to the criticism.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/donald-trump-ripped-behavior-dignified-004631054.html

Fox admitted switching footage of the dignified transfer with a previous one where the President is not wearing a hat. Will Fox now be sued for fake news?

9 minutes ago, Roadsternut said:

Fox admitted switching footage of the dignified transfer with a previous one where the President is not wearing a hat. Will Fox now be sued for fake news?

Do you think that Trump is putting on a bit of weight ?

Celebrity confirmed batchelor Lindsey Graham is having a go at Saudi Arabia and the GCC and issues a threat

Hopefully Gulf Cooperation Council countries will get more involved as this fight is in their backyard. If you are not willing to use your military now, when are you willing to use it? Hopefully this changes soon. If not, consequences will follow.

So what consequences? That the Infidels will stop not protecting their Kingdoms, and leave?

In response, Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor, founding chairman of the Dubai-based Al Habtoor Group, responded:

I heard the statements of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, in which he calls on the Gulf Cooperation Council countries to enter this war, saying that we are also under attack and that we must join the fight. And I say to him clearly: We know full well why we are under attack, and we also know who dragged the entire region into this dangerous escalation without consulting those he calls his "allies" in the region.

We thank God that the United Arab Emirates and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries are doing well, and we have no need for someone who claims he came to the Middle East to save us. The truth is that hasty American decisions are what embroiled the region in a war whose peoples were not party to its decision-making, and its local allies were not consulted before it was launched.

We do not deny the Iranian threat to the region, which has become clear in recent days. We do not trust Iran. But this is a dirty game in which several powers clash at the expense of our region, with no honor in it and no transparency.

In this scene, Iran, Israel, and the United States all move according to their own interests, not according to the interests of the peoples of the Middle Eastern Arab countries. And for this reason, we say it clearly: We will not enter this war to serve the interests of others, nor will we sacrifice our sons in a conflict that could have been avoided through diplomacy and political solutions. We value the lives of our sons, and we do not treat their souls as "collateral damage" as some do. Nothing in this world is more precious than the lives of our sons, and no alliance with any country in the world is worth risking these lives.

If President Donald Trump and Senator Graham are prepared to risk their country and the lives of Americans for Israel's interests, that is their choice. As for us, we will not do the same. Senator Graham says they are "the Arabs' allies" and that we need and benefit from U.S. protection. And I say to him: We do not need your protection. All we want from you is to keep your hands off us.

He also says: "We sell you weapons." As if that were a service the United States provides us. The truth is that this is no favor from anyone. We invest in our security and pay billions of dollars for these weapons, and it is a massive trade and industry built on these deals. In fact, the United States itself is now turning to buy weapons from Ukraine to supply its allies in other wars. This is an industry that thrives on wars and arms sales, not a charitable endeavor.

And the clearest thing of all is what Senator Graham himself said when he spoke about oil. He stated that Iran and Venezuela together hold 31% of global oil reserves, and that the United States could establish a partnership with this share of the world's oil, and that it would be a "nightmare for China"—he even added that if the regime in Iran changes, there would be a "new Middle East," and the United States would "make a lot of money." Only then does the picture become clear. And only then do we understand why they want this war.

Finally, I say to Senator Graham: You may be a senator in the U.S. Senate, but anyone who hears your statements might think you're a member of the Israeli Knesset, because you defend Israel's interests more than you defend the interests of the American people themselves.

The peoples of our region have the right to live in security and stability, far from others' wars. We also have the right to decide how to protect our interests and security, and to emerge from crises we did not create but which were imposed on us as a result of conflicts between powers vying for influence in this region. We want peace and stability. We will not accept being forced down the path of war, nor will we accept being fuel for others' battles.

Harsh words.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/09/trump-says-iran-war-very-complete-after-call-with-putin/

The fix is in I suppose. Never about regime change, liberating Iranian women. Always about oil and controlling it.

57 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

Do you think that Trump is putting on a bit of weight ?

Why does that matter?

32 minutes ago, Roadsternut said:

Why does that matter?

Same reason as it matters as to whether hes wearing a hat or not

1 hour ago, Roadsternut said:

Celebrity confirmed batchelor Lindsey Graham is having a go at Saudi Arabia and the GCC and issues a threat

So what consequences? That the Infidels will stop not protecting their Kingdoms, and leave?

In response, Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor, founding chairman of the Dubai-based Al Habtoor Group, responded:

Harsh words.

Excellent opinion from Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor.

31 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

Same reason as it matters as to whether hes wearing a hat or not

Him wearing a hat mattered to Fox News I suppose, enough for them to switch to a December 2025 piece of footage, and then apologise for it. Presumably because one of their loyal viewers called in to complain.

Ask me a proper question, rather than getting all anxious about his weight. Do you worry about your weight?

The is the Alpha-Omega War. Its both finished, but also just starting. Confused Grandad provides his thoughts on the matter.

The US President suggests that the Iranians possess US made Tomahawk cruise missiles, and are trying to procure more. Block II entered service in the early 1980s, so is he suggesting the US (Reagan, Ollie North) supplied Iran with cruise missiles as well a anti-tank weapons?

100 former political prisoners of Iran, including Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, issue open letter calling for a halt to the war, claiming it strengthens the regime.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/10/iranians-living-in-uk-warn-starmer-war-nazanin-zaghari-ratcliffe-letter

Nobody can claim to want the end of the Islamic republic more than we do. But attacking the country in this way will have the opposite effect. It will entrench the authoritarians and give life to the fiction that has sustained them internally for decades: that they are fighting western imperialism......

When Netanyahu – a man charged with international war crimes after killing countless civilians in Gaza – assassinates Iran’s dictator, that kills the man but immortalises the myth. Iranians wanted him tried and punished for his crimes, not given the martyr-ending he craved......

......A pro-democracy policy would protect political prisoners and ensure that Israel and the US do not bomb prisons like Evin. It is in those cells where the future democratic leaders of Iran reside. A pro-democracy policy would smuggle internet devices – not weapons – across the border, and break the blackout that is blanketing the country. A pro-democracy policy would call out Israel’s assassination policy even when it targets leaders we despise. There is so much that can be done in solidarity with Iranians. But joining in with Netanyahu’s forever wars is not it.

........This is of course not just Netanyahu’s war, Trump and the US are a significant part of it. But as US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said: ‘The president made the very wise decision – we knew that there was going to be an Israeli action, we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties.’ So the US followed Netanyahu into this war.

5 minutes ago, Roadsternut said:

100 former political prisoners of Iran, including Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, issue open letter calling for a halt to the war, claiming it strengthens the regime.

Translates to : I am happy in the UK and wouldn't want to go back to Iran , keep the regime in place and let me keep claiming asylum in the UK

11 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

Translates to : I am happy in the UK and wouldn't want to go back to Iran , keep the regime in place and let me keep claiming asylum in the UK

Mrs Ratcliffe is not an asylum seeker. She is a British citizen. Her home is with her children and her husband. Her parents are in Iran. Its disgusting for you to suggest she doesn't want to see them again.

You lie when you suggest that she wants the regime that imprisoned her in place.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/the-tiny-island-of-kharg-that-could-let-trump-beat-iran-without-sending-a-single-soldier-190553007.html

So imagine this.

The US seizes Kharg Island, and does a deal with the Mullahs to take a percentage of oil shipped. US to provide security to Iran from Israeli attack, turns a blind eye to domestic repression. Call it a protection charge, not mutual defence pact. Sets up toll booth in Straits of Hormuz. Arab states switch to China as a guarantor.

2 minutes ago, Roadsternut said:

Mrs Ratcliffe is not an asylum seeker. She is a British citizen. Her home is with her children and her husband. Her parents are in Iran. Its disgusting for you to suggest she doesn't want to see them again.

You lie when you suggest that she wants the regime that imprisoned her in place.

I was referring to the : "100 former political prisoners of Iran," rather than any particular person

1 hour ago, Nick Carter icp said:

Translates to : I am happy in the UK and wouldn't want to go back to Iran , keep the regime in place and let me keep claiming asylum in the UK

She sounds dishonest, a bit like someone wanting to steal from a charity.

TACO did it again, Putin called saying he needs to sell oil as he's in need of cash, TACO bend over, lower his pants and he will remove the sanctions... the last line about the peace made me choke

President Donald Trump, whose endgame in Iran is not clear to Western allies, has suggested suspending US sanctions on foreign oil in an attempt to bring down global prices, reassure panicked investors and contain the fallout from the war he launched.

"We have sanctions on some countries. We're going to take those sanctions off till this straightens out," Trump said on Monday.

"Then, who knows? Maybe we won't have to put them on – there'll be so much peace."

'Self-defeating': EU and US clash over Russia sanctions relief as prices soar

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/self-defeating-eu-and-us-clash-over-russia-sanctions-relief-as-prices-soar/ar-AA1XUKKU?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=LCTS&cvid=69b0cb4c7f67430dbc0745fc384da97e&ei=80

On 3/3/2026 at 1:51 AM, kwilco said:

So Trump has taken over Venezuelan oil production

Wiped away all the fossil fuel restrictions in the States

Forced the closure of the Hormuz Strait that supplies the rest of the world with oil.

Well, I wonder why!?!?!

I tell you why... so his master Putin can start selling his inventory and get fresh cash to fund the Ukraine war, anything and everything to help his master, BTW they had a very recent phone conversation

8 hours ago, Nick Carter icp said:

I was referring to the : "100 former political prisoners of Iran," rather than any particular person

Many of them maybe British citizens. You are casting aspersions on people who have been tortured, beaten for their beliefs, because of your IDS.