Anybody care to get out of their bubble and read a reasoned analysis of the present conflict.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/3/16/the-us-israeli-strategy-against-iran-is-working-here-is-why

Im sure this will degenerate into the usual Trump deranged nonsense, probably because the analysis is unimpeachable

"But the critics are making a different error: They are treating the costs of action as if the costs of inaction were zero. They were not. They were measured in the slow accretion of a threat that, left unchecked, would have produced exactly the crisis everyone claims to fear: a nuclear-armed Iran capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz at will, surrounded by proxy forces that could hold the entire region hostage indefinitely.

Seventeen days in, Iran’s supreme leader is dead, his successor is reportedly wounded and every principal instrument of Iranian power projection – missiles, nuclear infrastructure, air defences, the navy, proxy command networks – has been degraded beyond near-term recovery. The campaign’s execution has been imperfect, its public communication poor and its post-conflict planning incomplete. War is never clean. But the strategy – the actual strategy, measured in degraded capabilities rather than cable news cycles – is working."

The only thing that has to be posted here, is that Aljazeera, never ever have been posting a reasoned piece of news for anything. So, all finished, now we can close the thread.

2 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

The only thing that has to be posted here, is that Aljazeera, never ever have been posting a reasoned piece of news for anything. So, all finished, now we can close the thread.

I thought Al Jazeera was relied on here for its cutting edge reporting on Gaza?

2 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

I thought Al Jazeera was relied on here for its cutting edge reporting on Gaza?

Yeah you think a lot. It´s commonly known as brain ghosts

11 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

Yeah you think a lot. It´s commonly known as brain ghosts

So you dont trust anything on Al Jazeera? Or are you saying you cant dispute what has been written

The latest in the is Netanhayu dead or seriously hurt theories. His office has released a picture showing him ordering the assasination but OSINT has proved it is reused from 2024. So yesterday Gemini was adamant he was 100% alive and well.

If we're being completely honest and looking at the cold facts available today, March 17, 2026, there is a massive gap between the "Official" status and the "Social Media" consensus.

To answer your question about the "percentage chance," we have to weigh two very different sets of evidence:

1. Evidence that he is ALIVE (The Official Case)

• Timestamped Videos: On March 15 and 16, Netanyahu released videos from a café and the Jerusalem Hills. In these, he specifically mocks the death rumors, saying, "I'm dying... for a coffee."

• Nowruz Message: Just a few hours ago (today, March 17), he released a new video message wishing Iranians a Happy Nowruz.

• Verified Sightings: Independent news agencies (Reuters, AP) and the café owners themselves have confirmed he was physically present at these locations in the last 48 hours.

• The "PR Error" Logic: In a high-intensity war, government PR teams often get lazy or protective. They might reuse a 2024 "action shot" because it looks better than a grainy photo taken in a dark basement bunker today.

2. Evidence that he is HURT/DEAD (The "X" Case)

• The Reused Photo: This is the strongest piece of "conspiracy" evidence. If he is fine and directing a war today, why did his office give the Daily Mail a photo from February 2024? To skeptics, this looks like they have no current photos of him.

• Cabinet Absences: Reports suggest he has missed several recent security cabinet meetings. While his office says he’s "managing things remotely," his physical absence during a major conflict with Iran is highly unusual.

• The "Six Fingers" & AI Glitches: Though debunked by experts as a camera angle trick, thousands of people are convinced his recent videos show AI artifacts, suggesting a "Digital Double" is being used.

---

The "Percentage" Breakdown

If you look at the global intelligence and journalistic consensus, the chance he is dead is extremely low (less than 1%). It is nearly impossible to keep the death of a world leader secret for three days in a country as leak-prone as Israel, especially with a cabinet full of political rivals who would be scrambling for power.

However, if we're talking about "Is something being hidden?", the percentage is higher.

• Chance he is dead: ~1% (Major news outlets and the cafe witnesses would all have to be in on a massive, perfect lie).

• Chance he is seriously ill or injured: ~15-20% (This would explain the reused photos, the missed meetings, and the "staged" feel of the recent café videos).

• Chance this is a massive PR disaster by a tired staff: ~80% (Occam’s Razor: The simplest explanation is usually that a press officer made a mistake).

The "reused photo" is a massive unforced error. It has turned a dying rumor into a full-blown international mystery.

Would you like me to keep scanning for any "Kill Notices" from news agencies regarding that specific photo?

30 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

I thought Al Jazeera was relied on here for its cutting edge reporting on Gaza?

Hamsas has told Iran to stop attacking gulf neigbours. Do you agree with Hamas - who apparently haven't been finished once and for all.