Chiang Mai Tourism Hit Hard

[KevinHunt]

Maybe it's time you buy a book on philosophy. Learn about Yin and Yang and duality...

Here is a famous quote from F. Scott Fitzgerald

"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function."

In the Chinese teachings of Confucius a famous saying is "crisis equals opportunity"

So yes there are many bad things about this political unrest but there are also likely positive things that develop like a new government and a better way of life. A decade ago Thailand's mismanagement of its currency paved the way to the beginning of the "Asian Financial Crisis" contagion. The currency crashed and property prices dropped sharply. The prices of condo's in Chiang Mai basically halved in value. This currency crisis meant a lot of money was lost, increase in crime and bankruptcy. These lower prices also formed a competitive base for the past prosperity of the last ten years. Of course all booms must return to busts in order for the cycle to continue. That's why they call it a business cycle. Is politics going to affect the business cycle in Thailand? It's quite possible.

My point is sure you can be depressed about all of this or look at the larger forces of creation, organization and destruction and the cycle of life. This balanced use of the brain can see the positive and negative perspectives simultaneously. This balanced philosophy is akin to Buddhism which strives for detached observation of the surroundings.

Please resume your normal simple minded clinically depressed outlook on life. My apologies for upsetting you.

I'm sorry. Your post came across as selfish to me - 'people are dead but it's good for me' you seemed to be saying. Obviously I was wrong - probably a consequence of my simple-mindedness that you so kindly pointed out.

I'm definitely not of first-rate intelligence like you and your friend Mr Fitzgerald. I can barely walk and talk at the same time. The idea of holding two opposing thoughts at the same time AND retaining the ability to function boggles the mind. I know . I just checked mine - it's boggled alright.

As regards to my being upset - no need to apologise. Thanks to my being upset I got to write to TV and because I wrote to TV I got to know you and your philosophical outlook on life. I'm going to give it a try.

It will be difficult for me of course but I'll give it a go. In fact I just thought of one example to try your theory on - last night at about 8pm I saw a young lad laid out on the road at the intersection of Nawarat Bridge - Chiang Mai Lamphun rd. A motorcyle crash victim.The policeman wasn't doing anything other than control the traffic so I assume he was dead. It upset me of course.

I'm going to go away now and see if I can figure out ' how that was good for me?'. Sorry, I mean 'what was positive about that'. It may take a while, I think .

Edited September 4, 2008 by meadish_sweetball

[Bill97]

Maybe it's time you buy a book on philosophy. Learn about Yin and Yang and duality...

Here is a famous quote from F. Scott Fitzgerald

"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function."

In the Chinese teachings of Confucius a famous saying is "crisis equals opportunity"

So yes there are many bad things about this political unrest but there are also likely positive things that develop like a new government and a better way of life. A decade ago Thailand's mismanagement of its currency paved the way to the beginning of the "Asian Financial Crisis" contagion. The currency crashed and property prices dropped sharply. The prices of condo's in Chiang Mai basically halved in value. This currency crisis meant a lot of money was lost, increase in crime and bankruptcy. These lower prices also formed a competitive base for the past prosperity of the last ten years. Of course all booms must return to busts in order for the cycle to continue. That's why they call it a business cycle. Is politics going to affect the business cycle in Thailand? It's quite possible.

My point is sure you can be depressed about all of this or look at the larger forces of creation, organization and destruction and the cycle of life. This balanced use of the brain can see the positive and negative perspectives simultaneously. This balanced philosophy is akin to Buddhism which strives for detached observation of the surroundings.

Please resume your normal simple minded clinically depressed outlook on life. My apologies for upsetting you.

The Time magazine piece I saw was a ten picture essay of the violence. I don't see them listed now but sure they could be searched for.

What books do you recommend to us so that we may understand your views?

[Samuian]

Sure if you cant be responsible, find someone quick you an blame for... whatever - in this case the "Country wide problems"...Tourism was weak this year, remember the Oil-price, the airlines tickets... the Taxi-Boycott... cause of rampant overpricing... remember the coup - the ousting of the last prime minister... army in the streets... remember the flooding last year.... remember?

No, that is all over Now we 'those PAD People' on the streets - they are responsible!" Sure!

[BlackArtemis]

Sure if you cant be responsible, find someone quick you an blame for... whatever - in this case the "Country wide problems"...Tourism was weak this year, remember the Oil-price, the airlines tickets... the Taxi-Boycott... cause of rampant overpricing... remember the coup - the ousting of the last prime minister... army in the streets... remember the flooding last year.... remember?

No, that is all over Now we 'those PAD People' on the streets - they are responsible!" Sure!

You're right, the immediate cancellation of flights and other plans made by people planning to come this month are a immediate reaction.

[Johpa]

I saw a large demonstration against PAD tonight behind Wat Phrasing. Lot's of red and "Pantamip Auk Bai!".

Some ordinary folks up north got involved in national politics back in the 1970s. This was nicely documented in Morell and Chai-Anan's book Political Conflict in Thailand. The reaction by the government was brutal. Perhaps there is a younger generation that is willing to become active, but my age peers up north avoid all politics with good reason.

[rishi]

(Replying only to the header of this thread)

... hmm - Well, these threads about how hard business in Chiang Mai is hit by this or that ripple on the political scene pop up once in a while. Although, going on only my 4'th. season in a (partly) tourist oriented field, I ain't quite as seasoned as certain other posters, I haven't but seen business grow (on a small scale) year by year when comparing e.g. this August with its predecessors. I'm not much of a business analytic so I wonder why my experience is different from so many others?

[Ulysses G.]

I haven't but seen business grow (on a small scale) year by year when comparing e.g. this August with its predecessors. I'm not much of a business analytic so I wonder why my experience is different from so many others?

A new business might becoming better known as time goes on and gradually growing even though more established businesses are doing poorly compared to the past. The Duke's business grew steadily for several years as more and more people discovered the place, but now his business has slowed down like most of us. The same for Bake and Bite and she is closing early some days and all day on others to SAVE money which is too bad.

Also, if you have a lot of Thai customers, that could help a lot.

Edited September 5, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[cmsally]

The CTR index is normally a good indicator of how busy things are (crossing the road index).

It seems at the moment many times you can cross the road without waiting so a pretty good indicator that it is quiet at the moment.

[Lordfoul]

Both Businesses you mentioned are also a victims of their own success as they both have fairly recently expanded their outlets, they have divided much of their existing customer base across more locations so they need more customers to break even.

Even if tourism has been flat, there are so many more businesses competing for tourist money. The amount of hotels that have opened recently is crazy for such a small town, this kind of expansion is going on in every sector too. A strong Baht (up til recently) hurts tourism and High (Thai) inflation hurts local tourism.

I do feel for an individual business owner who is struggling, but it is time for the heard to be thinned out a bit so the rest can prosper. This is all part of the ebb and flow of business

I haven't but seen business grow (on a small scale) year by year when comparing e.g. this August with its predecessors. I'm not much of a business analytic so I wonder why my experience is different from so many others?

A new business might becoming better known as time goes on and gradually growing even though more established businesses are doing poorly compared to the past. The Duke's business grew steadily for several years as more and more people discovered the place, but now his business has slowed down like most of us. The same for Bake and Bite and she is closing early some days and all day on others to SAVE money which is too bad.

Also, if you have a lot of Thai customers, that could help a lot.

Edited September 5, 2008 by Lordfoul

[cmsally]

Be interesting to see if this slowdown cuts down the expansion of the coffee houses and massage places.

I think Chiang Mai might just have enough of these.

[Ajarn]

the last 2 elected governments,

Elected governments do not mean much if the elections were invalid or fraudulent.

The current "elected government" may be dissolved because of election fraud committed by the winning party. The fraud has been decided by one court and now The Supreme Court has accepted the case for trial could result in dissolution of the winning party.

The previous "elected government" had its election nullified by the courts.

So to suggest that the recent governments are democratically elected is not really the case.

Therefore, there has never been a democratic election in the history of Thailand. What are the alternatives?

There have been Democratily elected governments in Thailand since 1988.

As for tourists, not many farang visitors, but plenty of Asians, according to friends in the tour business.

I think the Asians are much better than the farangs generally.

[Bill97]

the last 2 elected governments,

Elected governments do not mean much if the elections were invalid or fraudulent.

The current "elected government" may be dissolved because of election fraud committed by the winning party. The fraud has been decided by one court and now The Supreme Court has accepted the case for trial could result in dissolution of the winning party.

The previous "elected government" had its election nullified by the courts.

So to suggest that the recent governments are democratically elected is not really the case.

Therefore, there has never been a democratic election in the history of Thailand. What are the alternatives?

There have been Democratily elected governments in Thailand since 1988.

As for tourists, not many farang visitors, but plenty of Asians, according to friends in the tour business.

I think the Asians are much better than the farangs generally.

There have been Democratily elected governments in Thailand since 1988.

All of them or which ones?

[Ulysses G.]

I do feel for an individual business owner who is struggling, but it is time for the heard to be thinned out a bit so the rest can prosper. This is all part of the ebb and flow of business

Normally, you would be correct, but Chiang Mai is so full of hobby businesses that constantly lose money, yet stay open, that it makes it impossible for normal rules to apply here. There are all the ones owned by rich Thais that just want something to do and farangs on a pension who want their wives to work - even if they lose money - and the ones owned by BGs who have a constant parade of fellows helping them out with the rent which is how they meet even more.

Thailand is a tough place to do business.

[Theyreallrubbish]

Both Businesses you mentioned are also a victims of their own success as they both have fairly recently expanded their outlets, they have divided much of their existing customer base across more locations so they need more customers to break even.

Even if tourism has been flat, there are so many more businesses competing for tourist money. The amount of hotels that have opened recently is crazy for such a small town, this kind of expansion is going on in every sector too. A strong Baht (up til recently) hurts tourism and High (Thai) inflation hurts local tourism.

I do feel for an individual business owner who is struggling, but it is time for the heard to be thinned out a bit so the rest can prosper. This is all part of the ebb and flow of business

I haven't but seen business grow (on a small scale) year by year when comparing e.g. this August with its predecessors. I'm not much of a business analytic so I wonder why my experience is different from so many others?

A new business might becoming better known as time goes on and gradually growing even though more established businesses are doing poorly compared to the past. The Duke's business grew steadily for several years as more and more people discovered the place, but now his business has slowed down like most of us. The same for Bake and Bite and she is closing early some days and all day on others to SAVE money which is too bad.

Also, if you have a lot of Thai customers, that could help a lot.

I went for dinner at the Sofitel Riverside on Chan Klang Road the other night. The parking lot was empty apart from a beat up old pickup. I had to walk through the entire hotel to get to the restaurant and never saw another person apart from the staff both going in and out.

I was in the restaurant about 2 hours (It was the Brazilian BBQ thing where they serve several courses of meat) and there were no other diners the entire night. There were about 8 staff in there and they must have been worrying about their jobs with the entire hotel so deserted all night.

It was actually kinda creepy this large luxury hotel seemingly abandoned apart from staff

[Lordfoul]

The way to compete with those types is by providing a high level of service and if you have a brick and mortar place make it nice looking and welcoming. While I have noticed Thais have been getting better at the second item, they still fail miserably at the first. I find even at establishment where the owner and employees are friendly actual service is still quite lacking.

A few years ago I had started a small one man business, my only competition at the time where Thais who charged much less than I did. Even so I had many repeat customers and my business was quickly growing. I am sure I would still be successful if I had not been pulled out of that and into a more lucrative career My motto has always been, compete on price and you will lose, compete on service and you will have no peers.

My other motto being, will not work for rice.

-- Edit--

I should add that I realize the above is not the end all solution that guarantees a business success, but I do think it is one of the most important and easiest to address.

I do feel for an individual business owner who is struggling, but it is time for the heard to be thinned out a bit so the rest can prosper. This is all part of the ebb and flow of business

Normally, you would be correct, but Chiang Mai is so full of hobby businesses that constantly lose money, yet stay open, that it makes it impossible for normal rules to apply here. There are all the ones owned by rich Thais that just want something to do and farangs on a pension who want their wives to work - even if they lose money - and the ones owned by BGs who have a constant parade of fellows helping them out with the rent which is how they meet even more.

Thailand is a tough place to do business.

Edited September 5, 2008 by Lordfoul

[ajarnpim]

Quoting Scott Fitzgerald when talking about balance seems a bit strange. Maybe he could function / balance by holding two bottles of Bourbon. Zelda would be more intuitive.

Didn't Confucious also say " Go to bed with itchy bum, wake up with smelly finger ".

Seriously though there is a downturn in Tourism but lets not blame some localised demonstrations. Its a global issue.

Edited September 5, 2008 by ajarnpim

[cmsally]

I personally know of 4 people/groups that have cancelled their trips to Thailand specifically because of the protests.

I am sure there are more.

To say it is a wholly global issue and not in some part related to the local issues is simply not true.

[stiggy]

How can tourism being down lead to the deep conversation being held by some posters........

Its quite cool in a quirky way I need some of that mountain air.

A wise man once said............the magic box that is called Tv shows rioters and people displeased with government ,and people getting beaten up......

Tourists will vanish quicker than a abandoned wallet in a go go bar .

Peace .........

[ajarnpim]

I personally know of 4 people/groups that have cancelled their trips to Thailand specifically because of the protests.

I am sure there are more.

To say it is a wholly global issue and not in some part related to the local issues is simply not true.

I agree Sally tourists are very sensitive to the current situation , but dont you think they may be overreacting?

[ChiangMaiFurnishedApts]

I personally know of 4 people/groups that have cancelled their trips to Thailand specifically because of the protests.

I am sure there are more.

To say it is a wholly global issue and not in some part related to the local issues is simply not true.

Up until about a week ago I would open the e-mail inbox and see reservation requests or requests for more info.

In the last four days I have had 6 cancellations, all for October.

Batten down the hatches because people make their holiday plans sometimes 60 days in advance and its looking to me like they are avoiding Thailand.

[wedders]

I do feel for an individual business owner who is struggling, but it is time for the heard to be thinned out a bit so the rest can prosper. This is all part of the ebb and flow of business

Normally, you would be correct, but Chiang Mai is so full of hobby businesses that constantly lose money, yet stay open, that it makes it impossible for normal rules to apply here. There are all the ones owned by rich Thais that just want something to do and farangs on a pension who want their wives to work - even if they lose money - and the ones owned by BGs who have a constant parade of fellows helping them out with the rent which is how they meet even more.

Thailand is a tough place to do business.

Excellent summing-up... precisely my impression. Tried to explain that to the wife the other day when I discovered she'd lent 30K (her money fortunately) to a girlfriend setting up yet another bar - got the usual blank, what planet are you from, look...

Perfect timing to set up a bar... close season, political crisis, global economic downturn ... I don't think.

[KevinHunt]

I personally know of 4 people/groups that have cancelled their trips to Thailand specifically because of the protests.

I am sure there are more.

To say it is a wholly global issue and not in some part related to the local issues is simply not true.

I agree Sally tourists are very sensitive to the current situation , but dont you think they may be overreacting?

I don't think it's a case of over-reacting. It's more a case of ensuring that your once a year holiday goes well. Why go somewhere with even a small chance of problems when there are so many alternatives? If you've been there before and understand the situation then you can make a better evaluation. If you've never been there , and don't understand the problem - avoid it. The tourist mags are full of options. If you've paid deposits and such, maybe you'd wait to see what happens , but if you're just about to book it, then you'd look at the alternatives . I think that's what happens.

As it is, it's low-season so business being down now is not as noticeable and not as significant. This time of year, every year, the bars are full of people moaning about how quiet it is. If it's been quiet in September for the last 20 years it will be quiet this September - with or without problems in Bangkok. It's like blaming every storm or flood on Global warming. Storms and floods have always happened and always will - Global Warming may or may not increase the frequency but you've still got to be prepared for them.

[cmsally]

I personally know of 4 people/groups that have cancelled their trips to Thailand specifically because of the protests.

I am sure there are more.

To say it is a wholly global issue and not in some part related to the local issues is simply not true.

I agree Sally tourists are very sensitive to the current situation , but dont you think they may be overreacting?

Whether overreacting or not; it is a fact that people are canceling specifically because of the political situation.

In one case decided to holiday at home (USA is a big place so many choices), another was visiting en route Australia from Europe so will miss Thailand out, another case Singapore expats, so holidaying another country in Asia - not sure what they decided on, the other was visiting from Europe and is looking at India as an alternative.

These people are those travelling within the next month, there are others who are still putting plans on hold regarding end of Oct onwards to see how the political situation turns out.

People do tend to shy away from any kind of trouble but then the reality is they have plenty of choices. It's not like Thailand is the only place with beaches, culture, temples etc.

[lannarebirth]

I thnk the backpacker set is becoming less adventurous. When I was that age, the possibility iof a coup might have lenede a little more excitement to a trip. Probably wouldn't extend that to countries like Somalia or the Sudan, but c'mon TIT, where they have this coup business down to a science.

[cmsally]

I thnk the backpacker set is becoming less adventurous. When I was that age, the possibility iof a coup might have lenede a little more excitement to a trip. Probably wouldn't extend that to countries like Somalia or the Sudan, but c'mon TIT, where they have this coup business down to a science.

From what I have seen a lot of the backpackers now use those wheelie suitcases. Puts them at a distinct disadvantage when they have to leg it down the street away from the machine gun fire and tanks.

[sylviex]

farangs on a pension who want their wives to work - even if they lose money

Why would they do that ?

Back to topic -- it's not even safety fears, necessarily; people simply don't want their holidays disturbed (viz. airport protests) and as others have said above, there are plenty of other places for a spot of shopping/good food/diving/hiking/observing a different culture/a rest on the beach.

[Ulysses G.]

farangs on a pension who want their wives to work - even if they lose money

Why would they do that ?

Part of it is so that the wives will not be sitting around the house doing nothing (or out fooling around), but also because many Thais enjoy the "status" of running a business. They have something to do and have flunkies to talk to and to wash their cars and such. It doesn't matter to them if the business is making money, or losing it, because it still serves their purposes and "Daddy" will cover the losses.

Edited September 5, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[Bill97]

farangs on a pension who want their wives to work - even if they lose money

Why would they do that ?

Part of it is so that the wives will not be sitting around the house doing nothing (or out fooling around), but also because many Thais enjoy the "status" of running a business. They have something to do and have flunkies to talk to and to wash their cars and such. It doesn't matter to them if the business is making money, or losing it, because it still serves their purposes and "Daddy" will cover the losses.

Sitting around the house doing nothing or out fooling around are what the husband wants to do and losses from the wife's "business" are often a small price to pay for those freedoms.

[Ulysses G.]

Ain't that the truth!

[ajarnpim]

I just cant see that anyone, indigineous or not would operate and run a loss making business. Please back up your theory by naming these altruistic ventures so I can abuse their munificence. Perhaps theyll pay me just to keep these people busy.