Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Jayman]

There are some really good documentaries on how money is created

The "Money is Debt" series is my favorite. Here's the 1st.. I think there are 3 in the series now.

http://youtu.be/Dc3sKwwAaCU

Here's #2 in the series

http://youtu.be/lsmbWBpnCNk

Edited March 26, 2012 by Jayman

[Jayman]

and the 3rd....

http://youtu.be/f6uuAupT4AQ

[Naam]

recently my wife told me that she buys "inherently valuable stuff" with "worthless paper and digits" generated in our portfolio. is it a scam she fell for? i will ask her again, perhaps i misunderstood?

[midas]

and the 3rd....

http://youtu.be/f6uuAupT4AQ

Yes they are very good Jayman and in particular the third one.

So the Internet has provided the means probably for the very first time in history for people to understand how they are being duped by the banking and government systems. I sincerely hope these videos are being shown to every economics student in schools and universities all around the world.

If these kinds of clear explanations of the fraudulent system don't prompt the masses on to the streets with their pitchforks

then nothing will.

[Naam]

Yes they are very good Jayman and in particular the third one.

So the Internet has provided the means probably for the very first time in history for people to understand how they are being duped by the banking and government systems. I sincerely hope these videos are being shown to every economics student in schools and universities all around the world.

If these kinds of clear explanations of the fraudulent system don't prompt the masses on to the streets with their pitchforks then nothing will.

the "third one" is indeed brilliant! it will educate young people to steal or rob "inherently valuable stuff" instead of working for "worthless paper and digits".

[Jayman]

I'm just now watching the 3rd one for the 1st time. I was introduced to these with the first one. I think it would do well in even an elementary school room.

http://www.themoneymasters.com/

http://youtu.be/JXt1cayx0hs

Edited March 26, 2012 by Jayman

[Naam]

-most Farangs talk in ThaiVisaForum because talk is cheap.

-most Farangs in TVF don't have a clue about investing because they lack the bare minimum knowledge.

-most Farangs get their clues from YewToob clips or from other Farangs who acquired their clues on barstools.

-most Farangs without clues resort to wishful thinking and believe only reports which are in line with their thinking.

[gogobar8]

-most Farangs talk in ThaiVisaForum because talk is cheap.

-most Farangs in TVF don't have a clue about investing because they lack the bare minimum knowledge.

-most Farangs get their clues from YewToob clips or from other Farangs who acquired their clues on barstools.

-most Farangs without clues resort to wishful thinking and believe only reports which are in line with their thinking.

I'm not arguing with any of that Naam.

That's why you need to look at a woman when she's talking to you.

[edgarfriendly]

March 27 Comex April gold options expiry

27/Mar/2012 09:24:00 24450 24550 1589 24089.24 24950 1430.1 21680.316 556 8428.96

350

[Naam]

recently my wife told me that she buys "inherently valuable stuff" with "worthless paper and digits" generated in our portfolio. is it a scam she fell for? i will ask her again, perhaps i misunderstood?

today she told me that yesterday she bought food and today booked two flights, both with "worthless paper and digits". if Mrs Naam was Thai i'd say it's one huge big "sick buffalo story" she is telling.

but whatever, something is very wrong!

i will investigate further and then report back here.

[midas]

-most Farangs without clues resort to wishful thinking and believe only reports which are in line with their thinking.

the ultimate wishful thinking was one Farang over in the financial crisis thread who said at least twice

there was no financial crisis. Enough said

Edited March 27, 2012 by midas

[metisdead]

Some posts not contributing to the topic (trolling) have been removed.

[Naam]

-most Farangs without clues resort to wishful thinking and believe only reports which are in line with their thinking.

the ultimate wishful thinking was one Farang over in the financial crisis thread who said at least twice

there was no financial crisis. Enough said

perhaps you are kind enough to post a link that we can read exactly what this Farang said?

[midas]

then you have these tedious aspects of fiat money.................

The Yen's Looming Day of Reckoning

Japan looks set to depress the value of the yen to boost trade – how China must brace itself for the impact

The transition from a strong to weak yen will likely be abrupt, involving a sudden and big devaluation of 30 to 40 percent. It will be a big shock to Japan's neighbors and its distant competitors like Germany

http://english.caixin.com/2012-03-23/100372177_all.html

[falkan]

finally it went up today

Buy: ฿24500

Sell: ฿24600

Last Update: 2012-03-27 15:15:03

Price Change: +400

[Naam]

Japan looks set to depress the value of the yen

JP¥ is one of the, or perhaps THE, most overvalued currencies even

though Japan has the worst debt/gdp ratio of all developed nations.

this report is neither relevant for "gold" nor for "financial crisis"

except perhaps..... to impress some investment newbies

USD JP¥ - period last 5 years YEN +50%

EUR JP¥ - period last 5 years YEN +35%

GPB JP¥ - period last 5 years YEN +46%

CNY JP¥ - period last 5 years YEN +21%

SGD JP¥ - period last 5 years YEN +23%

CAD JPY - period last 5 years YEN +47%

[Naam]

The transition from a strong to weak yen will likely be abrupt, involving a sudden and big devaluation of 30 to 40 percent.

and Mr Andie Xie is the annointed sent prophet to tell us. Mr Xie could make millions with a finger's snap if he was able to advise the Japanese how to do something which is very desirable for them, what they are trying to do since years and for which the "chief accountant in charge" would sacrifice his left ball.

unfortunately Mr Xie has seemingly no bloody idea how a devaluation can be achieved. the Japanese monetary authorities had recently big problems to bring the YEN back above 80 vs. USD.

p.s. i am well aware that posting some simple facts here is "throwing pearls before rabbits" but then i am converting a boring waiting time in between trades into an entertaining and interesting one.

[Naam]

financial crisis news Portugal

- massive lifts the last 10 days

-10y Portugal almost 10 points higher and we see large flows

-locals and overseas investors are on buy side in long end (domestic bid as well in short end) while we have European sellers of long end.

PORTUGAL Sovereign Bonds

PGB 5 12 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 99.86-100.42 2. 4.9 556/285 BB Ba3

PGB 5.45 13 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 94.78- 96.28 8. 5.6 911/794 BB Ba3

PGB 4⅜ 14 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 82.70- 84.70 12. 5.1 137/124 BB Ba3

PGB 3.6 14 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 79.67- 81.67 12. 4.4 133/121 BB Ba3

PGB 3.35 15 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 73.52- 75.69 12. 4.4 126/117 BB Ba3

PGB 6.4 16 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 77.46- 79.96 13. 8.0 137/127 BB Ba3

PGB 4.2 16 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 69.47- 71.97 12. 5.8 129/119 BB Ba3

PGB 4.35 17 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 65.66- 68.16 12. 6.3 126/118 BB Ba3

PGB 4.45 18 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 62.66- 65.17 12. 6.8 126/118 BB Ba3

PGB 4¾ 19 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 61.38- 63.88 12. 7.4 121/113 BB Ba3

PGB 4.8 20 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 59.99- 62.49 12. 7.6 114/107 BB Ba3

PGB 3.85 21 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 58.28- 60.78 10. 6.3 916/853 BB Ba3

PGB 4.95 23 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 57.86- 60.48 11. 8.1 874/814 BB Ba3

PGB 4.1 37 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 48.08- 49.95 9. 8.2 707/673 BB Ba3

PORTUGAL Corporate Bonds

CAMFER 4½ 13 POLO III-CP FI EUR 82.12- 84.62 18. 5.3 210/183 B B3

CAMFER 0 14 POLO SECURITIE EUR 85.06- 88.30 7. 2.3 793/620 B B3

CAMFER 4.7 15 POLO III-CP FI EUR 69.75- 72.75 15. 6.4 172/156 B B3

CAMFER 4.17 1 CP COMBOIOS DE EUR 49.41- 52.74 15. 7.9 148/136 BB N.A

ELEPOR 5⅜ 12 EDP FINANCE BV USD 100.15-100.15 5. 5.3 493/493 BB+ Ba1

ELEPOR 5½ 14 EDP FINANCE BV EUR 99.87-101.02 4. 5.4 537/471 BB+ Ba1

ELEPOR 5⅞ 16 EDP FINANCE BV EUR 91.66- 92.89 8. 6.3 791/751 BB+ Ba1

ELEPOR 6⅝ 17 EDP FINANCE BV GBP 88.60- 90.58 8. 7.3 824/775 BB+ Ba1

ELEPOR 6 18 EDP FINANCE BV USD 90.00- 90.00 8. 6.6 713/713 BB+ Ba1

ELEPOR 4.9 19 EDP FINANCE BV USD 82.00- 82.00 8. 5.9 593/593 BB+ Ba1

ELEPOR 8⅝ 24 EDP FINANCE BV GBP 89.30- 91.43 9. 9.4 736/703 BB+ Ba1

REFER 4 15 REFER-REDE FER EUR 57.00- 60.00 24. 6.6 264/241 CCC+ B2

REFER 5⅞ 19 REFER-REDE FER EUR 54.21- 57.96 16. 10.1 166/152 BB Ba3

REFER 4¼ 21 REFER-REDE FER EUR 47.00- 49.04 14. 8.6 141/135 CCC+ B2

REFER 4.675 2 REFER-REDE FER EUR 44.83- 48.58 13. 9.6 113/102 BB Ba3

REFER 4.047 2 REFER-REDE FER EUR 45.20- 48.11 11. 8.4 105/964 BB N.A

[gogobar8]

financial crisis news Portugal

- massive lifts the last 10 days

-10y Portugal almost 10 points higher and we see large flows

-locals and overseas investors are on buy side in long end (domestic bid as well in short end) while we have European sellers of long end.

PORTUGAL Sovereign Bonds

PGB 5 12 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 99.86-100.42 2. 4.9 556/285 BB Ba3

PGB 5.45 13 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 94.78- 96.28 8. 5.6 911/794 BB Ba3

PGB 4⅜ 14 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 82.70- 84.70 12. 5.1 137/124 BB Ba3

PGB 3.6 14 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 79.67- 81.67 12. 4.4 133/121 BB Ba3

PGB 3.35 15 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 73.52- 75.69 12. 4.4 126/117 BB Ba3

PGB 6.4 16 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 77.46- 79.96 13. 8.0 137/127 BB Ba3

PGB 4.2 16 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 69.47- 71.97 12. 5.8 129/119 BB Ba3

PGB 4.35 17 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 65.66- 68.16 12. 6.3 126/118 BB Ba3

PGB 4.45 18 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 62.66- 65.17 12. 6.8 126/118 BB Ba3

PGB 4¾ 19 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 61.38- 63.88 12. 7.4 121/113 BB Ba3

PGB 4.8 20 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 59.99- 62.49 12. 7.6 114/107 BB Ba3

PGB 3.85 21 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 58.28- 60.78 10. 6.3 916/853 BB Ba3

PGB 4.95 23 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 57.86- 60.48 11. 8.1 874/814 BB Ba3

PGB 4.1 37 OBRIGACOES DO EUR 48.08- 49.95 9. 8.2 707/673 BB Ba3

PORTUGAL Corporate Bonds

CAMFER 4½ 13 POLO III-CP FI EUR 82.12- 84.62 18. 5.3 210/183 B B3

CAMFER 0 14 POLO SECURITIE EUR 85.06- 88.30 7. 2.3 793/620 B B3

CAMFER 4.7 15 POLO III-CP FI EUR 69.75- 72.75 15. 6.4 172/156 B B3

CAMFER 4.17 1 CP COMBOIOS DE EUR 49.41- 52.74 15. 7.9 148/136 BB N.A

ELEPOR 5⅜ 12 EDP FINANCE BV USD 100.15-100.15 5. 5.3 493/493 BB+ Ba1

ELEPOR 5½ 14 EDP FINANCE BV EUR 99.87-101.02 4. 5.4 537/471 BB+ Ba1

ELEPOR 5⅞ 16 EDP FINANCE BV EUR 91.66- 92.89 8. 6.3 791/751 BB+ Ba1

ELEPOR 6⅝ 17 EDP FINANCE BV GBP 88.60- 90.58 8. 7.3 824/775 BB+ Ba1

ELEPOR 6 18 EDP FINANCE BV USD 90.00- 90.00 8. 6.6 713/713 BB+ Ba1

ELEPOR 4.9 19 EDP FINANCE BV USD 82.00- 82.00 8. 5.9 593/593 BB+ Ba1

ELEPOR 8⅝ 24 EDP FINANCE BV GBP 89.30- 91.43 9. 9.4 736/703 BB+ Ba1

REFER 4 15 REFER-REDE FER EUR 57.00- 60.00 24. 6.6 264/241 CCC+ B2

REFER 5⅞ 19 REFER-REDE FER EUR 54.21- 57.96 16. 10.1 166/152 BB Ba3

REFER 4¼ 21 REFER-REDE FER EUR 47.00- 49.04 14. 8.6 141/135 CCC+ B2

REFER 4.675 2 REFER-REDE FER EUR 44.83- 48.58 13. 9.6 113/102 BB Ba3

REFER 4.047 2 REFER-REDE FER EUR 45.20- 48.11 11. 8.4 105/964 BB N.A

Pardon?

[midas]

Pardon?

sorry, wrong thread! should have been in "financial crisis" where the Daily Mail readers spread doom&gloom.

at least it's better than basing your assessment about the future of the country according to who is purchasing pieces of paper

which would be totally valueless when it all falls apart

Portugal's jobless young people leave country for work

Finding work is increasingly hard in a country where the real jobless rate is probably about 22%.

Not quite as high as neighbouring Spain, but far higher than the official figure of 14.6%, simply because many who want to work are not registered as unemployed.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17461172

[Naam]

at least it's better than basing your assessment about the future of the country according to who is purchasing pieces of paper which would be totally valueless when it all falls apart

why do people quite often àss-ume that certain facts which i post are my assessments? is it because i'm not able to provide YewToob links which are as credible as the biblical gospel spreading the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth?

let's get it straight... i have no idea of Portugal's future and i don't care what percentage of what age group of the portuguese population has a job or not. portuguese debt rallied, the assumptions and prophecies of Daily Mail and Telegraph journàsslists concerning that debt, posted here several weeks ago, were bullshit derived from thin air or perhaps from sucking thumbs. period!

[waza]

By Matthew Lynn LONDON (MarketWatch) — Has the great bull run in gold run its course? On the surface it looks as if it might have. After running up close to $2,000 an ounce during the market panic of last autumn, it has slipped below $1,700. And it shows little sign of reclaiming its highs. But here’s one reason why it could have a lot further to go. The big, developed world central banks will start buying again. And if they do, it would put real rocket fuel into the price of the precious metal....... Here’s why. First, foreign exchange reserves are critical if you face a financial crisis. If the banking system needs to be propped up, then you need some assets to play with. Of course, the central bank can always print some money. But in a crisis, the markets may demand something more solid – and that means having reserves...... Finally, the credit rating agencies offset reserves against government liabilities, so they can be critical to maintaining your credit rating. For most of the last 50 years, the developed nations have not had to worry about their balance sheets. For the next 50 years, with ageing populations, and alread http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-leg-of-golds-bull-run-2012-03-28?pagenumber=2y downing in debt, they will have to worry about them a lot. The more reserves you have, the better (or at least less bad) your balance sheet looks. So what is the best way to increase reserves?

Edited March 28, 2012 by waza

[midas]

isn't this an amazing statistic?

OPEC and America’s creditors view gold as a measuring rod for the dollar’s value. Forty years ago, the dollar was worth 1/35th of an ounce of gold. Today, after years of massive deficits and Federal Reserve credit creation, the dollar is worth about 1/1,700th of an ounce of physical gold.

http://www.youshouldbuygold.com/2011/04/chapter-1-gold-dollars-oil-dollars-decline-of-reserve-currency-opec/

[metisdead]

Another series of nonsense troll posts have been removed as well as the replies.

[waza]

By Matthew Lynn LONDON (MarketWatch) — Has the great bull run in gold run its course? On the surface it looks as if it might have. After running up close to $2,000 an ounce during the market panic of last autumn, it has slipped below $1,700. And it shows little sign of reclaiming its highs. But here’s one reason why it could have a lot further to go. The big, developed world central banks will start buying again. And if they do, it would put real rocket fuel into the price of the precious metal....... Here’s why. First, foreign exchange reserves are critical if you face a financial crisis. If the banking system needs to be propped up, then you need some assets to play with. Of course, the central bank can always print some money. But in a crisis, the markets may demand something more solid – and that means having reserves...... Finally, the credit rating agencies offset reserves against government liabilities, so they can be critical to maintaining your credit rating. For most of the last 50 years, the developed nations have not had to worry about their balance sheets. For the next 50 years, with ageing populations, and alread http://www.marketwat...8?pagenumber=2y downing in debt, they will have to worry about them a lot. The more reserves you have, the better (or at least less bad) your balance sheet looks. So what is the best way to increase reserves?

Sorry guys but my edit function went haywire, I was trying to make the point that these guys are being paid to write this dribble that contains no insight just pure speculation. I could write crap like this but I doubt anyone would pay me for it.

[fletchsmile]

and the 3rd....

http://youtu.be/f6uuAupT4AQ

Yes they are very good Jayman and in particular the third one.

So the Internet has provided the means probably for the very first time in history for people to understand how they are being duped by the banking and government systems. I sincerely hope these videos are being shown to every economics student in schools and universities all around the world.

If these kinds of clear explanations of the fraudulent system don't prompt the masses on to the streets with their pitchforks

then nothing will.

Held my attention for about 3 minutes and even then it was a struggle, so cut my losses. Will take your word for it you found it interesting for an hour

[fletchsmile]

I was quite surprised at UBS' hefty target price reduction of one of the gold mining stocks I own, based on higher costs and lower gold prices as per the market factors below

"UBS has downgraded its recommendation for Russian gold miner Petropavlovsk from buy to neutral after cutting its 2012 gold forecasts substantially.

"A continuing US recovery, material erosion in Fed QE expectations, rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and questions surrounding the durability of the Fed's low-until-2014 rate pledge all combine to act as the prime culprits that lead us to downgrade our 2012 gold forecast," said analysts Ben Davis and Myles Allsop.

To reflect these lower prices and higher guided costs, the broker has cut Petropavlovsk's 2012-14 earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 50-65%. As such, the target price comes down from 1,070p to just 650p."

http://www.hl.co.uk/...vsk,-tui-travel

Can't say I agree with such a significant downgrade, so I looked up what their latest gold forecast was, and they've cut the FY forecast by 18% to $1,680 an ounce, as follows

http://www.bloomberg...8-to-1-680.html

That's a weak year for buy/ hold the metal.

On the other hand, the miner (POG:LN) still looks very good value. Trailing P/E of 7.5, and pays a div of 2.3%. Revenue doubled in the year, and net income and EPS were up 10x for 2011 vs 2010, plus they expect increased in production from 630koz to 680koz in 2012 due to larger capacity. The average gold price they sold at was 1,617/oz in 2011 so even by UBS' estimates that would be flat or a bit higher for 2012. Can't see costs going up that much that EPS would drop so significantly given extra capacity/production and a flat/higher gold price, even though they've higher debt levels. [Worth noting they value most of their reserves at 1,000/oz and some smaller ones around 1,200/oz, and they revised total reserves up by 6% in Feb]

Miners generally have been lagging the gold price movements in the last couple of years. I don't feel so bullish anymore for gold prices, but will look to add to this miner and others. Many of the miners don't seem to have the increased gold prices of recent years fully built in, and even if gold is flat this year, that looks good for miners...

Edited March 29, 2012 by fletchsmile

[midas]

Held my attention for about 3 minutes and even then it was a struggle, so cut my losses. Will take your word for it you found it interesting for an hour

I share exactly the same sentiments when it comes to people fantasising you can print money

infinitely ( especially based on historic facts etc )

[udonguy]

it's a bit like Pooh really

'up, down, touch the ground... when i'm in the mood...'

[mccw]

My preferred dealer has gold kilo at close to £34,000 ; lowest for quite a while.

Nice time to buy?

Big or at least decent bounce buy this time next year?

Second part I'm expecting due to Mild to server recession in the west with euro trouble worsening by year end.

( I just sold a house and will b using the funds to extend my house about this time next year or buy another one; I don't have enough faith in the system to keep any sizeable amount in the bank.)

So what do you think? two 500gs or a big load of silver ks in the mix?

I expect a dip in uk house prices across the board by years end. Any thoughts on this?

I am remortgaging now at current values (up 20% plus in my area + increases from renovations I've varied out since buying at lowest point) so I can sit on cash/ metal ready to jump in at the bottom of the coming down turn.