£ Nudging 52 Bht

[Naam]

And am I really adding fuel to the flames of fear? All I am doing is posting a few links and drawing conclusions. Maybe you could try to put a a few links with some optimism, which I will be very happy to read, as I cannot find anything at the moment. And then give us an alternative option to discuss?

in my view you are hammering too much on politicians and blaming them for each and everything 12D. i too don't like what the politicians in my country do or plan to do but i take it much more easy. the simple reason for my attitude is that i am living in Thailand, do not pay any german income tax which could be used by the bullsh*tting politicians for any of their hare brained schemes. you seem to live in Thailand too and don't pay any british taxes to the minions of Her Majesty. so why not loosen up a bit?

[ArranP]

Doesn't stop me watching and worrying though.

Yes it does !

If your position is as secure as you suggest then you are serving no use to yourself, or others, by giving the impression that you ARE concerned and adding fuel to the flames of fear.

Enjoy your position and do more meaningful things with your time. In some ways your guilt is worse than others because you can say "Oh look the sky is falling in.....BUT, I am OK"

Actually I don't know if my position is secure. And that is the big worry.

I have money with a number of banks. But as far as I can tell, only the Thai banks are looking solid

I have money in several countries. But they are all massively into deficit budgets and bailouts :D Will they default? Will hyperinflation take off, destroying our savings with it?

Money that was invested in Icelandic banks is now in limbo and probably lost :jerk:

18 months ago all was very fine. Now the future is uncertain. And I reckon the best way of spending a few hours every day is to read the news, follow up on economics and try to understand how this will all pan out. The crisis is developing INCREDIBLY quickly, and I need to be able to move fast. I probably have much more stress than somebody with property and an income stream from a pension, because in that situation there is not much more to do than sit back, enjoy the moment and pray a bit.

And what guilt am I supposed to have? All my life I have been very cautious with my money, the only debt I had was a mortgage in the UK at 2.5 times my salary, and only then after saving every penny to put up the 10% deposit that the bank required. The guilt lies with all the greedy bankers, politicians and credit junkies, who needed everything today and pay on the never never. I can remember saving up my pocket money for week after week in order to buy an LP to play on my hi-fi system which had taken me some six months to save for.

So, I am very concerned about this whole mess, in which I, personally, have played no part in creating. Indeed I have suffered substantial losses, wiping out several years of savings, money which I will never have again. I feel very angry about this.

The guilt lies with the politicians and bankers of the last eight years, who have issued credit at far too cheap rates and allowed the banks to create the biggest roulette wheel in the universe, using our money as bets and taking huge bonuses because they have made a few lucky rolls.

And am I really adding fuel to the flames of fear? All I am doing is posting a few links and drawing conclusions. Maybe you could try to put a a few links with some optimism, which I will be very happy to read, as I cannot find anything at the moment. And then give us an alternative option to discuss?

12DrinkMore, I've had a significant portion of my capital tied up in "Managed Futures" for 6 months, I don't have to do a thing all is done for me.

There was an article in the Investors Chronical about 4 weeks ago that stated they are one sector to provide good returns.

In 2008 this sector provided returns of 15% and 25%+, one fund performed particaly well and returned 60%.

From my understanding, these are a teams of people trading daily for you, taking long and short positions on fx, commodities, indices, bonds, cash with a horizon of 4 to 5 weeks.

They know a lot more than I do and can enter and exit positions a lot quicker than I could ever hope to.

The fund (www.trend.ky) which I am in follows is computer driven system which looks for pre-defined price patterns.

Edited February 15, 2009 by ArranP

[chiang mai]

Doesn't stop me watching and worrying though.

Yes it does !

If your position is as secure as you suggest then you are serving no use to yourself, or others, by giving the impression that you ARE concerned and adding fuel to the flames of fear.

Enjoy your position and do more meaningful things with your time. In some ways your guilt is worse than others because you can say "Oh look the sky is falling in.....BUT, I am OK"

Actually I don't know if my position is secure. And that is the big worry.

I have money with a number of banks. But as far as I can tell, only the Thai banks are looking solid

I have money in several countries. But they are all massively into deficit budgets and bailouts :D Will they default? Will hyperinflation take off, destroying our savings with it?

Money that was invested in Icelandic banks is now in limbo and probably lost :jerk:

18 months ago all was very fine. Now the future is uncertain. And I reckon the best way of spending a few hours every day is to read the news, follow up on economics and try to understand how this will all pan out. The crisis is developing INCREDIBLY quickly, and I need to be able to move fast. I probably have much more stress than somebody with property and an income stream from a pension, because in that situation there is not much more to do than sit back, enjoy the moment and pray a bit.

And what guilt am I supposed to have? All my life I have been very cautious with my money, the only debt I had was a mortgage in the UK at 2.5 times my salary, and only then after saving every penny to put up the 10% deposit that the bank required. The guilt lies with all the greedy bankers, politicians and credit junkies, who needed everything today and pay on the never never. I can remember saving up my pocket money for week after week in order to buy an LP to play on my hi-fi system which had taken me some six months to save for.

So, I am very concerned about this whole mess, in which I, personally, have played no part in creating. Indeed I have suffered substantial losses, wiping out several years of savings, money which I will never have again. I feel very angry about this.

The guilt lies with the politicians and bankers of the last eight years, who have issued credit at far too cheap rates and allowed the banks to create the biggest roulette wheel in the universe, using our money as bets and taking huge bonuses because they have made a few lucky rolls.

And am I really adding fuel to the flames of fear? All I am doing is posting a few links and drawing conclusions. Maybe you could try to put a a few links with some optimism, which I will be very happy to read, as I cannot find anything at the moment. And then give us an alternative option to discuss?

One of the things I notice from your posts is that you tend to group all the problems in the financial sector into one big pot and label that pot as, "things I have to worry about". Banks and bankers are in there, hyperinflation, Madoof, pensions, politicians, property prices and goodness knows what else - justifiably all those things are linked in some way but perhaps you need to separate them. You've had a scare with one bank but that story is not finished yet and it's worthwhile remembering that governments around the world have gone to great lengths to make sure that consumers/depositers do not suffer losses as a result of the current banking crisis. I for one take quite a bit of comfort knowing there are various compensation schemes in place and that I am potentially covered by them. I can't however extend the argument and think about what might happen if the deposit protection schemes fails because that would force me to think about a scenario where the UK was bankrupt and had defaulted on all it's financial obligations. It's not that that couldn't happen, it's just that for me to begin to worry about it is not reasonable since it would mean changes to all aspects of life on the planet virtually. Similarly with hyperinflation, Hyperinflation doesn't happen overnight and if we think we are headed in that unlikely direction we'll have plenty of warning and see it coming thus we'll have time to react and reinvest accordingly. In summary, chill a little, spending your life worrying is not part of the plan.

[12DrinkMore]

12DrinkMore, I've had a significant portion of my capital tied up in "Managed Futures" for 6 months, I don't have to do a thing all is done for me.

There was an article in the Investors Chronical about 4 weeks ago that stated they are one sector to provide good returns.

In 2008 this sector provided returns of 15% and 25%+, one fund performed particaly well and returned 60%.

Sounds too good to be true!!! Maybe it is :D

From my understanding, these are a teams of people trading daily for you, taking long and short positions on fx, commodities, indices, bonds, cash with a horizon of 4 to 5 weeks.

They know a lot more than I do and can enter and exit positions a lot quicker than I could ever hope to.

The fund (www.trend.ky) which I am in follows is computer driven system which looks for pre-defined price patterns.

The website gives absolutely no information about who is running this, how many employees, charges etc. They seem to be located in the Cayman islands.

Have you tried to withdraw any funds from them yet?

The performance graphs over the last decade show a remarkable resemblance to Mr Madoff's performance up until recently, constant annual growth outperforming the market.

My money will certainly not be heading out there. The Cayman islands is another one of these offshore financial centres that likes taking in lots of cash, but in the end cannot meet any failed bank's liabilities. Bit similar to the UK :D

[bonzor]

Doesn't stop me watching and worrying though.

Yes it does !

If your position is as secure as you suggest then you are serving no use to yourself, or others, by giving the impression that you ARE concerned and adding fuel to the flames of fear.

Enjoy your position and do more meaningful things with your time. In some ways your guilt is worse than others because you can say "Oh look the sky is falling in.....BUT, I am OK"

Actually I don't know if my position is secure. And that is the big worry.

I have money with a number of banks. But as far as I can tell, only the Thai banks are looking solid

I have money in several countries. But they are all massively into deficit budgets and bailouts Will they default? Will hyperinflation take off, destroying our savings with it?

Money that was invested in Icelandic banks is now in limbo and probably lost :jerk:

18 months ago all was very fine. Now the future is uncertain. And I reckon the best way of spending a few hours every day is to read the news, follow up on economics and try to understand how this will all pan out. The crisis is developing INCREDIBLY quickly, and I need to be able to move fast. I probably have much more stress than somebody with property and an income stream from a pension, because in that situation there is not much more to do than sit back, enjoy the moment and pray a bit.

And what guilt am I supposed to have? All my life I have been very cautious with my money, the only debt I had was a mortgage in the UK at 2.5 times my salary, and only then after saving every penny to put up the 10% deposit that the bank required. The guilt lies with all the greedy bankers, politicians and credit junkies, who needed everything today and pay on the never never. I can remember saving up my pocket money for week after week in order to buy an LP to play on my hi-fi system which had taken me some six months to save for.

So, I am very concerned about this whole mess, in which I, personally, have played no part in creating. Indeed I have suffered substantial losses, wiping out several years of savings, money which I will never have again. I feel very angry about this.

The guilt lies with the politicians and bankers of the last eight years, who have issued credit at far too cheap rates and allowed the banks to create the biggest roulette wheel in the universe, using our money as bets and taking huge bonuses because they have made a few lucky rolls.

And am I really adding fuel to the flames of fear? All I am doing is posting a few links and drawing conclusions. Maybe you could try to put a a few links with some optimism, which I will be very happy to read, as I cannot find anything at the moment. And then give us an alternative option to discuss?

12DrinkMore, I've had a significant portion of my capital tied up in "Managed Futures" for 6 months, I don't have to do a thing all is done for me.

There was an article in the Investors Chronical about 4 weeks ago that stated they are one sector to provide good returns.

In 2008 this sector provided returns of 15% and 25%+, one fund performed particaly well and returned 60%.

From my understanding, these are a teams of people trading daily for you, taking long and short positions on fx, commodities, indices, bonds, cash with a horizon of 4 to 5 weeks.

They know a lot more than I do and can enter and exit positions a lot quicker than I could ever hope to.

The fund (www.trend.ky) which I am in follows is computer driven system which looks for pre-defined price patterns.

You are so naive it's got to be a troll post. You must have fund managers salivating throughout the world. The 'experts' know what they are doing. You read an article. You sit back and leave it to them. In one short post you explain and encapsulate the whole financial crisis in a nutshell. What's the crisis been for if you have learnt nothing?

[chiang mai]

Doesn't stop me watching and worrying though.

Yes it does !

If your position is as secure as you suggest then you are serving no use to yourself, or others, by giving the impression that you ARE concerned and adding fuel to the flames of fear.

Enjoy your position and do more meaningful things with your time. In some ways your guilt is worse than others because you can say "Oh look the sky is falling in.....BUT, I am OK"

Actually I don't know if my position is secure. And that is the big worry.

I have money with a number of banks. But as far as I can tell, only the Thai banks are looking solid

I have money in several countries. But they are all massively into deficit budgets and bailouts Will they default? Will hyperinflation take off, destroying our savings with it?

Money that was invested in Icelandic banks is now in limbo and probably lost :jerk:

18 months ago all was very fine. Now the future is uncertain. And I reckon the best way of spending a few hours every day is to read the news, follow up on economics and try to understand how this will all pan out. The crisis is developing INCREDIBLY quickly, and I need to be able to move fast. I probably have much more stress than somebody with property and an income stream from a pension, because in that situation there is not much more to do than sit back, enjoy the moment and pray a bit.

And what guilt am I supposed to have? All my life I have been very cautious with my money, the only debt I had was a mortgage in the UK at 2.5 times my salary, and only then after saving every penny to put up the 10% deposit that the bank required. The guilt lies with all the greedy bankers, politicians and credit junkies, who needed everything today and pay on the never never. I can remember saving up my pocket money for week after week in order to buy an LP to play on my hi-fi system which had taken me some six months to save for.

So, I am very concerned about this whole mess, in which I, personally, have played no part in creating. Indeed I have suffered substantial losses, wiping out several years of savings, money which I will never have again. I feel very angry about this.

The guilt lies with the politicians and bankers of the last eight years, who have issued credit at far too cheap rates and allowed the banks to create the biggest roulette wheel in the universe, using our money as bets and taking huge bonuses because they have made a few lucky rolls.

And am I really adding fuel to the flames of fear? All I am doing is posting a few links and drawing conclusions. Maybe you could try to put a a few links with some optimism, which I will be very happy to read, as I cannot find anything at the moment. And then give us an alternative option to discuss?

12DrinkMore, I've had a significant portion of my capital tied up in "Managed Futures" for 6 months, I don't have to do a thing all is done for me.

There was an article in the Investors Chronical about 4 weeks ago that stated they are one sector to provide good returns.

In 2008 this sector provided returns of 15% and 25%+, one fund performed particaly well and returned 60%.

From my understanding, these are a teams of people trading daily for you, taking long and short positions on fx, commodities, indices, bonds, cash with a horizon of 4 to 5 weeks.

They know a lot more than I do and can enter and exit positions a lot quicker than I could ever hope to.

The fund (www.trend.ky) which I am in follows is computer driven system which looks for pre-defined price patterns.

You are so naive it's got to be a troll post. You must have fund managers salivating throughout the world. The 'experts' know what they are doing. You read an article. You sit back and leave it to them. In one short post you explain and encapsulate the whole financial crisis in a nutshell. What's the crisis been for if you have learnt nothing?

If you would bother to read some of Arran's previous posts you would understand that he is the farthest thing from being a Troll! But your posts sums up many people's attitude quite nicely - some folks reckon that because there are problems, large scale problems admittedly, in the financial services and banking sector that must mean that all investment entities and financial institutions must be seriously bad news and that there is no such thing today as a reliable managed investment - that's a pretty naive view I'm afraid.

[Naam]

12DrinkMore, I've had a significant portion of my capital tied up in "Managed Futures" for 6 months, I don't have to do a thing all is done for me.

There was an article in the Investors Chronical about 4 weeks ago that stated they are one sector to provide good returns.

In 2008 this sector provided returns of 15% and 25%+, one fund performed particaly well and returned 60%.

Sounds too good to be true!!! Maybe it is :D

From my understanding, these are a teams of people trading daily for you, taking long and short positions on fx, commodities, indices, bonds, cash with a horizon of 4 to 5 weeks.

They know a lot more than I do and can enter and exit positions a lot quicker than I could ever hope to.

The fund (www.trend.ky) which I am in follows is computer driven system which looks for pre-defined price patterns.

The website gives absolutely no information about who is running this, how many employees, charges etc. They seem to be located in the Cayman islands.

Have you tried to withdraw any funds from them yet?

The performance graphs over the last decade show a remarkable resemblance to Mr Madoff's performance up until recently, constant annual growth outperforming the market.

My money will certainly not be heading out there. The Cayman islands is another one of these offshore financial centres that likes taking in lots of cash, but in the end cannot meet any failed bank's liabilities. Bit similar to the UK :D

...and if you try to download an informative pdf-file you get the error message "file damaged, cannot be opened".

[Naam]

it's just that for me to begin to worry about it is not reasonable since it would mean changes to all aspects of life on the planet virtually. Similarly with hyperinflation, Hyperinflation doesn't happen overnight and if we think we are headed in that unlikely direction we'll have plenty of warning and see it coming thus we'll have time to react and reinvest accordingly. In summary, chill a little, spending your life worrying is not part of the plan.

i second your opinion wholeheartedly CM but then... we have to respect some masochistic tendencies (as they clearly surface and show in some of the postings) too

[lannarebirth]

Doesn't stop me watching and worrying though.

Yes it does !

If your position is as secure as you suggest then you are serving no use to yourself, or others, by giving the impression that you ARE concerned and adding fuel to the flames of fear.

Enjoy your position and do more meaningful things with your time. In some ways your guilt is worse than others because you can say "Oh look the sky is falling in.....BUT, I am OK"

Actually I don't know if my position is secure. And that is the big worry.

I have money with a number of banks. But as far as I can tell, only the Thai banks are looking solid

I have money in several countries. But they are all massively into deficit budgets and bailouts Will they default? Will hyperinflation take off, destroying our savings with it?

Money that was invested in Icelandic banks is now in limbo and probably lost :jerk:

18 months ago all was very fine. Now the future is uncertain. And I reckon the best way of spending a few hours every day is to read the news, follow up on economics and try to understand how this will all pan out. The crisis is developing INCREDIBLY quickly, and I need to be able to move fast. I probably have much more stress than somebody with property and an income stream from a pension, because in that situation there is not much more to do than sit back, enjoy the moment and pray a bit.

And what guilt am I supposed to have? All my life I have been very cautious with my money, the only debt I had was a mortgage in the UK at 2.5 times my salary, and only then after saving every penny to put up the 10% deposit that the bank required. The guilt lies with all the greedy bankers, politicians and credit junkies, who needed everything today and pay on the never never. I can remember saving up my pocket money for week after week in order to buy an LP to play on my hi-fi system which had taken me some six months to save for.

So, I am very concerned about this whole mess, in which I, personally, have played no part in creating. Indeed I have suffered substantial losses, wiping out several years of savings, money which I will never have again. I feel very angry about this.

The guilt lies with the politicians and bankers of the last eight years, who have issued credit at far too cheap rates and allowed the banks to create the biggest roulette wheel in the universe, using our money as bets and taking huge bonuses because they have made a few lucky rolls.

And am I really adding fuel to the flames of fear? All I am doing is posting a few links and drawing conclusions. Maybe you could try to put a a few links with some optimism, which I will be very happy to read, as I cannot find anything at the moment. And then give us an alternative option to discuss?

12DrinkMore, I've had a significant portion of my capital tied up in "Managed Futures" for 6 months, I don't have to do a thing all is done for me.

There was an article in the Investors Chronical about 4 weeks ago that stated they are one sector to provide good returns.

In 2008 this sector provided returns of 15% and 25%+, one fund performed particaly well and returned 60%.

From my understanding, these are a teams of people trading daily for you, taking long and short positions on fx, commodities, indices, bonds, cash with a horizon of 4 to 5 weeks.

They know a lot more than I do and can enter and exit positions a lot quicker than I could ever hope to.

The fund (www.trend.ky) which I am in follows is computer driven system which looks for pre-defined price patterns.

You are so naive it's got to be a troll post. You must have fund managers salivating throughout the world. The 'experts' know what they are doing. You read an article. You sit back and leave it to them. In one short post you explain and encapsulate the whole financial crisis in a nutshell. What's the crisis been for if you have learnt nothing?

If you would bother to read some of Arran's previous posts you would understand that he is the farthest thing from being a Troll! But your posts sums up many people's attitude quite nicely - some folks reckon that because there are problems, large scale problems admittedly, in the financial services and banking sector that must mean that all investment entities and financial institutions must be seriously bad news and that there is no such thing today as a reliable managed investment - that's a pretty naive view I'm afraid.

Count me among the multitudes.

[Merangue]

Afraid i am in the camp that says panicking and screaming on a forum about how bleak the future is going to be, is not productive.

Yes there are problems in the world and indeed in the UK.

However i; being one of the people who had sod all in the first place; am actually in a position to gain from the current crisis by dint of hard work and some common sense.

Not everyone sees the current crisis as the end of the world which is how it comes across when 12D posts on here.

[Chaimai]

Afraid i am in the camp that says panicking and screaming on a forum about how bleak the future is going to be, is not productive.

Do not apologise for this.

12D is rightly angered by the ineptitude of bankers and politicians (he has also displayed a sense of humour )

However, I am bored with constantly hearing doom and gloom stories and analyses of what happened and what might happen. It is depressing enough to find ourselves in this unwelcome position, we don't need more Doomsday speculation. Life will, and does, go on.

The time has come for everyone to work (hard) together to find a way through the current difficulties. We can start by taking a deep breath, lose the natural anger towards the w4nkers who caused this and march on towards the recovery. It may just come that little bit sooner if people put on their positive hats for a change - finding a reason to be positive is not easy but my experience in banking says that they will throw the kitchen sink at write-offs. They don't usually hold anything back for later. The credit guys will have looked critically at their positions and raised Provisions (Bad debts) for anything they don't like i.e. the worst should already be out in the open. Remember, Barclays made a profit of £6bn and HSBC will also turn in a profit.

Valuers were told 4/5 months ago to be 'hard' on their valuations and most banks had aleady shaded their loan to value ratios to 60%-65% on property. Some (Lloyds) are just not lending at all in the property sector.

The UK is such a property based economy that recovery can only start when there is greater activity in the housing market. The lenders have to start easing credit by sensibly assessing each individual case rather than having a one size fits all policy. Regrettably, the banks and building societies have generally shown a lack of wit in this area and will treat a flat in a posh area of Bath the same as one in a poor area of Barnsley.

[Naam]

Afraid i am in the camp that says panicking and screaming on a forum about how bleak the future is going to be, is not productive.

Yes there are problems in the world and indeed in the UK.

However i; being one of the people who had sod all in the first place; am actually in a position to gain from the current crisis by dint of hard work and some common sense.

Not everyone sees the current crisis as the end of the world which is how it comes across when 12D posts on here.

what does that mean? not all of us have the privilege of an english mother tongue.

[Lite Beer]

Afraid i am in the camp that says panicking and screaming on a forum about how bleak the future is going to be, is not productive.

Yes there are problems in the world and indeed in the UK.

However i; being one of the people who had sod all in the first place; am actually in a position to gain from the current crisis by dint of hard work and some common sense.

Not everyone sees the current crisis as the end of the world which is how it comes across when 12D posts on here.

what does that mean? not all of us have the privilege of an english mother tongue.

Sod All = Nothing. Zero.

[Ricardo]

Afraid i am in the camp that says panicking and screaming on a forum about how bleak the future is going to be, is not productive.

Yes there are problems in the world and indeed in the UK.

However i; being one of the people who had sod all in the first place; am actually in a position to gain from the current crisis by dint of hard work and some common sense.

Not everyone sees the current crisis as the end of the world which is how it comes across when 12D posts on here.

what does that mean? not all of us have the privilege of an english mother tongue.

'Sod all' is an expression in the current vernacular, meaning very little or nothing at all, a similar phrase might be 'bugger all' or SFA (san Fairy ann, ca ne fait rien, or sweet <deleted> all).

Colourful language, English !

[ArranP]

If you would bother to read some of Arran's previous posts you would understand that he is the farthest thing from being a Troll! But your posts sums up many people's attitude quite nicely - some folks reckon that because there are problems, large scale problems admittedly, in the financial services and banking sector that must mean that all investment entities and financial institutions must be seriously bad news and that there is no such thing today as a reliable managed investment - that's a pretty naive view I'm afraid.

Thanks Chiang Mai!

[ArranP]

You are so naive it's got to be a troll post. You must have fund managers salivating throughout the world. The 'experts' know what they are doing. You read an article. You sit back and leave it to them. In one short post you explain and encapsulate the whole financial crisis in a nutshell. What's the crisis been for if you have learnt nothing?

Bonzor, I came across the fund May 2008, invested in it August/September 09, the article was printed just 4 weeks ago. It was just nice to see a bit a afirmation on the decision. But your right in the sense that nothing is guaranteed and all these gains could dissappear. But they do seem to be doing well :-)

I came to the conclusion that they know more than I do and are able to transact far quicker than I can. I did a little bit of research on "managed futures" and they do seem to do well in down-turns. Managed futures is a market where a business an airline for exmaple can buy a commodity for example oil at todays price for delivery say next june. By doing this they can eliminate risk and determine a price for their tickets they sell in june. The business buy their oil from speculators, ie these are the same people as the fund that I am invested in, these speculators make or loose their money from these trades, ie they trade risk.

The financial crises has been a "a flow of money" out of equity and commodities back to banks mostly returning to the USD and JPY, and government bonds.

At the moment, we seem to be in a period of deflation as asset prices reduce, and money is being printed, during this time money can remain in low-return risk-free government bonds. However, at some point, due to cheap money, inflation is expected to return, at which point, it will no longer be financially viable to remain in low-return as the inflation will erode the value of money. Therefore at this time, I think we should see some risk taking. Perhaps money, coming out of government bonds going back into corporate bonds.

At some point, money-flow will return to equities and commodities, at which time we should see a reversal in the USD and JPY strength as indices and commodities start to rise, the fx strength of USD and JPY will weaken.

The tranditional recession example explains, the people who keep their jobs, public sector and essentials like tesco, unilever, kraft etc... it is these people we must wait for to consume the excess in inventories which is currently preventing further manufacturing from taking place and therefore delaying further purchasing commodities. As these inventories dissappear, companies will need to re-start manufacturing and will need to re-employ people to do so, at which time, these people with their new jobs will buy those deferred purchases, thus the positive spiral begins...

Edited February 16, 2009 by ArranP

[ArranP]

...and if you try to download an informative pdf-file you get the error message "file damaged, cannot be opened".

I have noticed this once before, it was later corrected. I can see it has happened again, a few days ago when I tried it and it was ok, I am sure it will be corrected within the next days.

Also, you could seach google for "Managed Futures", there are a couple of articles which explain them. Tulip is not the only fund in this sector there are others performing well too.

Edited February 16, 2009 by ArranP

[12DrinkMore]

However i; being one of the people who had sod all in the first place; am actually in a position to gain from the current crisis by dint of hard work and some common sense.

Not everyone sees the current crisis as the end of the world which is how it comes across when 12D posts on here.

Well, yes, I agree if you have nothing to lose then it doesn't matter at all. I guess you should take out more debts, then you would have even less to lose

But unfortunately I, and MILLIONS of other OLD B4StARDS like me am not in the position of being young enough to get a job and work our way up again.

Here are a few points to ponder

- how would you feel after working for 35 years, saving as much as you can and never in debt, and then hoping to retire "a bit early", only to find in the space of 18 months your wealth has been reduced by 30% and your income from that by another 60%? With no end in sight to the losses and risks of banks and countries going insolvent and defaulting? Cannot happen to you? Hey! That's what I thought.

- seeing your company pension scheme going insolvent and unable to pay your pension?

- hoping against hope itself that the UK national pension scheme will be able to pay anything?

OK all that doesn't affect you at all, because you have fukc all, but how about

- who is going to pay all the debt that the UK government is currently creating on your behalf? You may say that you have sod all, but YOUR personal debt has recently increased by over 10,000 Quid due to the bailouts, so you already have debts before applying your common sense and hard work.

- who is going to carry the liability of the inflation proofed civil service pension schemes? YES, its YOU!

I guess that you are in your twenties and optimistic about everything. Yeah, well so was I, so was I once. Now I have spent a lifetime working as an employee.

The future over the next decade is looking very bleak for me and for you. Good luck, we'll all need it.

[ArranP]

- how would you feel after working for 35 years, saving as much as you can and never in debt, and then hoping to retire "a bit early", only to find in the space of 18 months your wealth has been reduced by 30% and your income from that by another 60%? With no end in sight to the losses and risks of banks and countries going insolvent and defaulting? Cannot happen to you? Hey! That's what I thought.

I'm not sure how long it will take before interest rates go back up, I understand corporate bonds are quite cheap at the moment and yields quite high.

People have not wanted to take the risk but maybe these are a bit too oversold.... if you believe this then, a well diversified corporate bond ETF may prove a good option at the moment to substitute what was the 5% or 6% return on cash?

At least this is what Jim ONiel of Goldman Sachs recomended about 6 weeks ago.

Edited February 16, 2009 by ArranP

[lannarebirth]

- how would you feel after working for 35 years, saving as much as you can and never in debt, and then hoping to retire "a bit early", only to find in the space of 18 months your wealth has been reduced by 30% and your income from that by another 60%? With no end in sight to the losses and risks of banks and countries going insolvent and defaulting? Cannot happen to you? Hey! That's what I thought.

I'm not sure how long it will take before interest rates go back up, I understand corporate bonds are quite cheap at the moment and yields quite high.

People have not wanted to take the risk but maybe these are a bit too oversold.... if you believe this then, a well diversified corporate bond ETF may prove a good option at the moment to substitute what was the 5% or 6% return on cash?

At least this is what Jim ONiel of Goldman Sachs recomended about 6 weeks ago.

Goldman Sachs will be one of the likely survivors of this global clusterf-ck, and that's a shame.

[ArranP]

You are so naive it's got to be a troll post. You must have fund managers salivating throughout the world. The 'experts' know what they are doing. You read an article. You sit back and leave it to them. In one short post you explain and encapsulate the whole financial crisis in a nutshell. What's the crisis been for if you have learnt nothing?

Apologies, I got the dates wrong, I meant to write....

Bonzor, I came across the fund May 2007, invested in it August/September 08, the article was printed just 4 weeks ago. It was just nice to see a bit a afirmation on the decision. But your right in the sense that nothing is guaranteed and all these gains could dissappear. But they do seem to be doing well :-)

[Chaimai]

Here are a few points to ponder

- how would you feel after working for 35 years, saving as much as you can and never in debt, and then hoping to retire "a bit early", only to find in the space of 18 months your wealth has been reduced by 30% and your income from that by another 60%? With no end in sight to the losses and risks of banks and countries going insolvent and defaulting? Cannot happen to you? Hey! That's what I thought.

- seeing your company pension scheme going insolvent and unable to pay your pension?

- hoping against hope itself that the UK national pension scheme will be able to pay anything?

<deleted> ! Now I understand how angry you are.

If it is any consolation (and I am sure it won't be) I have today lost 50% of my planned income and £200k of capital (earmarked for the kid's inheritance) all because I put too much trust in someone in business. Entirely my fault and I allowed myself to be out-manoeuvred by someone all because I failed to put the legal protections in place that I would have put in place if I had not known the other party for 20 years.

The financial crisis set my plans back 2 years - this will add another 4/5 years. Oh well, time for a beer

[Merangue]

However i; being one of the people who had sod all in the first place; am actually in a position to gain from the current crisis by dint of hard work and some common sense.

Not everyone sees the current crisis as the end of the world which is how it comes across when 12D posts on here.

Well, yes, I agree if you have nothing to lose then it doesn't matter at all. I guess you should take out more debts, then you would have even less to lose

But unfortunately I, and MILLIONS of other OLD B4StARDS like me am not in the position of being young enough to get a job and work our way up again.

Here are a few points to ponder

- how would you feel after working for 35 years, saving as much as you can and never in debt, and then hoping to retire "a bit early", only to find in the space of 18 months your wealth has been reduced by 30% and your income from that by another 60%? With no end in sight to the losses and risks of banks and countries going insolvent and defaulting? Cannot happen to you? Hey! That's what I thought.

- seeing your company pension scheme going insolvent and unable to pay your pension?

- hoping against hope itself that the UK national pension scheme will be able to pay anything?

OK all that doesn't affect you at all, because you have fukc all, but how about

- who is going to pay all the debt that the UK government is currently creating on your behalf? You may say that you have sod all, but YOUR personal debt has recently increased by over 10,000 Quid due to the bailouts, so you already have debts before applying your common sense and hard work.

- who is going to carry the liability of the inflation proofed civil service pension schemes? YES, its YOU!

I guess that you are in your twenties and optimistic about everything. Yeah, well so was I, so was I once. Now I have spent a lifetime working as an employee.

The future over the next decade is looking very bleak for me and for you. Good luck, we'll all need it.

While i can understand where your are coming from i think you have once again missed my point and made some assumptions.

First i am not in my 20's. God i wish i were.

Second i do not have any debts and have never been willing to have any. If i can't buy it in total i don't buy. The nly ;loa i have ever had was £2000 for a car when i was in my late teens.

The 10000 in debt the government will take from me in tax over the rest of my working life, will be lessened by the fact that inflation will reduce the value of that anyway. Lets face it this government would take that much and more anyway. If not due to a economic crisis then because i was ( Fill in the blank here ) so needed to be taxed at a higher rate.

The inflation proofed Civil service pension, is a large portion of my future income so you will forgive me if i do not complain about that. Part of the reason the civil service pension is so good is we get paid less than those of you in the private sector. Effectively we pay more in, over a long period, to get a better final salary pension at the end. I too ( like many of the British public)could have spent the last 25 years earning more in a private sector job, getting loans for mortgages i could not afford, buying stuff on credit i was not capable of covering, but i didn't. I spent only what i had coming in and pushed lots into inflation proofed pension schemes backed by the government.

Nothing is fireproof but there is nothing wrong with being optimistic. Yes people have taken a beating and i feel for them but do not believe for one minute that this is the catastrophe you seem to believe it is. You are not going to starve. If you are of retirement age you would be more than able to return to the UK and live quite comfortably on the state if it was required.

I keep reading about people who have lost huge amounts of funds . £100's of thousands gone in the space of a few months. Well i am sorry but i am not going to sit here crying about them.

I am more concerned about the bloke who had nothing before this happened and still has nothing now. He is the one who deserves sympathy, not the chap who has lost half of his personal fortune so can only have 2 houses rather than the four he was planning on.

All this talk about the terrible UK economy and how bad the country is and how it is all doom and gloom may in truth be the case. I do not know your personal circmstances and for all i know you are simply down to your last 5 million quid.

There are good news stories out there too but instead of looking for them you and others spend all your time reporting only the bad news.

It is not just the UK. The UK has been hit hardest early on but other countries are in much worse positions in the long term. I for one would be extremely worried if i were German or Greek right now. I am immensley pleased that the UK is not a part of the Euro.

In many ways i am glad my country does not rely heavily on large expensive exports like Cars and electronic goods ( Japan? Korea? Thailand?) because then my economy would be totally dependant on other people being willing to spend high again. ( Fat chance of that for a while).

The UK is a great country because it is a part of Europe yet is not actually in Europe completely. It has huge trade agreements and very good relationships in both industry, finance, military and trade with its own family of nations ( the commonwealth ) with North America, China and even the middle east. In fact it is probably outside of America, the most influencial (pound for pound and population for population) country on the face of the earth.

What makes you think all those links and contacts and knowledge and expertise have all evaporated with a bad exchange rate?

Yes we have a crap Prime Minister and i for one would dearly love to have Thatcher back right now ( No i never voted for her) but in the long term he will be here for a couple of years at worst then he will be gone. In the mean time there is only so much more damage he can do without his own house revolting against him.

Relax, chill out, it is not the end of the world. We are not at the beginning of WW3. Nuclear bombs are not raining from the skies. We are not rioting in the streets quite yet and in fact i suspect the worst that will happen is most British, will simply pull the belt in a bit more to weather the next couple of years.

[Merangue]

out of general interest this may have some bearing on the future FX rates

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...-faces-scrutiny

[jesimps]

However i; being one of the people who had sod all in the first place; am actually in a position to gain from the current crisis by dint of hard work and some common sense.

Not everyone sees the current crisis as the end of the world which is how it comes across when 12D posts on here.

Well, yes, I agree if you have nothing to lose then it doesn't matter at all. I guess you should take out more debts, then you would have even less to lose

But unfortunately I, and MILLIONS of other OLD B4StARDS like me am not in the position of being young enough to get a job and work our way up again.

Here are a few points to ponder

- how would you feel after working for 35 years, saving as much as you can and never in debt, and then hoping to retire "a bit early", only to find in the space of 18 months your wealth has been reduced by 30% and your income from that by another 60%? With no end in sight to the losses and risks of banks and countries going insolvent and defaulting? Cannot happen to you? Hey! That's what I thought.

- seeing your company pension scheme going insolvent and unable to pay your pension?

- hoping against hope itself that the UK national pension scheme will be able to pay anything?

OK all that doesn't affect you at all, because you have fukc all, but how about

- who is going to pay all the debt that the UK government is currently creating on your behalf? You may say that you have sod all, but YOUR personal debt has recently increased by over 10,000 Quid due to the bailouts, so you already have debts before applying your common sense and hard work.

- who is going to carry the liability of the inflation proofed civil service pension schemes? YES, its YOU!

I guess that you are in your twenties and optimistic about everything. Yeah, well so was I, so was I once. Now I have spent a lifetime working as an employee.

The future over the next decade is looking very bleak for me and for you. Good luck, we'll all need it.

Here we go again. It's that time of year when all the whinging buggers feel inclined to have a pop at the civil service index-linked pension. I'm an ex low-level civil servant, who has a small index linked pension for which I paid 30 years contributions. My salary when I was working was very low compared to what all my mates were making, so they could have, and in a lot of cases did, contribute to pension schemes which pay much better than the civil service scheme. If you want a public service like those found in third world countries, then by all means take away the index linked pension and reduce civil servants wages, but you'll get what you pay for. If you want anything from your local public servants you'll have to pay a bribe, either that or wait months for what you want.

If you want to have a go at someone, pick on these bankers who've got the world into the state it's in; are being shored up by the use of public money and are receiving large bonuses. Leave us poor buggers alone pal, I'm suffering enough as it is trying to survive with the crap exchange rate.

Probably hear from you in 6 months when the latest flurry of whinges about civil servants' pensions kicks off, usually happens about twice a year when they've run out of other things to whinge about.

[Merangue]

Here we go again. It's that time of year when all the whinging buggers feel inclined to have a pop at the civil service index-linked pension. I'm an ex low-level civil servant, who has a small index linked pension for which I paid 30 years contributions. My salary when I was working was very low compared to what all my mates were making, so they could have, and in a lot of cases did, contribute to pension schemes which pay much better than the civil service scheme. If you want a public service like those found in third world countries, then by all means take away the index linked pension and reduce civil servants wages, but you'll get what you pay for. If you want anything from your local public servants you'll have to pay a bribe, either that or wait months for what you want.

If you want to have a go at someone, pick on these bankers who've got the world into the state it's in; are being shored up by the use of public money and are receiving large bonuses. Leave us poor buggers alone pal, I'm suffering enough as it is trying to survive with the crap exchange rate.

Probably hear from you in 6 months when the latest flurry of whinges about civil servants' pensions kicks off, usually happens about twice a year when they've run out of other things to whinge about.

Do not bite on that one mate.

As a civil servant i have given up explaining that the reason we have a good pension ( not great but decent ) is because we pay for it over a very long period both in deductions from wages and in a lower pay rate than the high flying private industry.

It makes no difference to these people who insist on crying about our pensions because they did not have the foresight to save that extra money they were being paid over a very long time.

[churchill]

Here we go again. It's that time of year when all the whinging buggers feel inclined to have a pop at the civil service index-linked pension. I'm an ex low-level civil servant, who has a small index linked pension for which I paid 30 years contributions. My salary when I was working was very low compared to what all my mates were making, so they could have, and in a lot of cases did, contribute to pension schemes which pay much better than the civil service scheme. If you want a public service like those found in third world countries, then by all means take away the index linked pension and reduce civil servants wages, but you'll get what you pay for. If you want anything from your local public servants you'll have to pay a bribe, either that or wait months for what you want.

If you want to have a go at someone, pick on these bankers who've got the world into the state it's in; are being shored up by the use of public money and are receiving large bonuses. Leave us poor buggers alone pal, I'm suffering enough as it is trying to survive with the crap exchange rate.

Probably hear from you in 6 months when the latest flurry of whinges about civil servants' pensions kicks off, usually happens about twice a year when they've run out of other things to whinge about.

Do not bite on that one mate.

As a civil servant i have given up explaining that the reason we have a good pension ( not great but decent ) is because we pay for it over a very long period both in deductions from wages and in a lower pay rate than the high flying private industry.

It makes no difference to these people who insist on crying about our pensions because they did not have the foresight to save that extra money they were being paid over a very long time.

So with lower wages and pay rate the funds should be invested so as not to rely on others to pay your pension . Your pensions should be affected as with private pensions by stock market and other fluctuations .

[churchill]

BTW - anyone thought about the pensions that non residents receive - That they are frozen at time of retirement - What happens if pension rates in the UK decline after ones retirement- because the government could not pay ? would we receive more than pensioners in the UK ??!

Similar to what has happened with some loans in the UK linked to base rates where in effect banks are now giving interest free loans .

[Chaimai]

OK.

Rather than criticise 'scaremongering', I will try and counter the bad news stories with 'good news' references.

I accept that in the short-term this might be like looking for a needle in a haystack. However, I want to be a messenger for recovery and a beacon for those who are also looking for encouraging signs.

Let's start with this one:-

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20090217/tuk-ho...in-45dbed5.html

Doesn't sound encouraging using words like 'slump'. However, if my properties have only fallen by 10.2% in 2008 then I am £110k better off than I thought because I had attached a 15% drop to the properties for 2008.

The indications of increased activity are borne out by reports from local agents who say that they are now seeing a few first time buyers and buy to let investors returning to the market. My mortgage broking business had been lucky to get a couple of enquiries a week over the last 3 months. We have seen 6 customers in last 3 days. I am not getting excited - relieved, certainly because we can now trade above break-even.

Small things, but in the same way that all the bad news had to be absorbed and assessed so does ANY good news. Attitude and sentiment are as big a factor as anything in dealing with this recession and and any gradual returnn of confidence is welcome.

[churchill]

I sold my property in London last September for 30% less than the highs . I don't think you can judge values on general valuation reports . If employment gets worse , probably , prices will decline more - if prices start to rise perhaps more people will try to sell keeping prices down .

I would like to buy again as would many 1st time investors but I think most will wait and see - maybe next year ?