Thai PM Abhisit Says Seeking Political Solution To Crisis

[pedro01]

Laws? The reds don't need no stinkin' laws...

The same can be said of those that take power by military force.

The military took power by military force. Then there were elections. The rules and consequences for violation of those rules were clear. The party that came to power from those elections blatantly broke the rules. Their fault. Nobody made them do it. And they were even filmed doing it. So they were dissolved. So sorry. Try to follow election rules next time.

.

Correction: A rigged election was held where the major opposition political party was outlawed and its members prevented from running for political office for 5 years. So yes after the current government disemboweled the opposition political party they held elections only they could win. As has been said before on this board. The current government may be legal but it lacks legitimacy.

On what planet did anyone win an election outright in Thailand after Thaksins majority win in 2001 ? After that Thaksin became less popular and had to rely on a coalition to stay in power.

Las time I checked Peau Thai & the Democrats are about even with the minor parties alliegances being the deciding factor.

There is every reason to expect that both Peau Thai & the Democrats will both get less votes next time because of the current fiasco.

There seems to be some impression that Peau Thai/Reds would have a landslide if Abhisit dissolved the house and called an election. This will only happen if some very irregular things occur.

The most likely outcome of any election in the foreseeable future is the Dems & PT being about even and one of them making a coalition.

Note though - the coalition could be changed now without any election - all that happens is PT needs to convince the minor parties over to their side.

I wonder why it is they don't do that ?

The most likely explanation is that the reds have some sort of plan of action for when the house is dissolved. I am not sure what that would be but I can imagine it wouldn't be pretty.

[lazurus]

Until now Thailand had a lot to be proud of. While its neighbors went through major wars, genocide, military dictatorship and other means of self destruction Thailand remained stable, relatively peaceful, and more prosperous. Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam have gone through terrible hardships in the last century from which Thailand has been spared. It is really a shame that people are willing to push Thailand into a civil war that could cripple it for decades without need.

Many people are skeptical about the true motives for the protests. It is widely reported that protesters are paid to be there, and that some have had their ID cards confiscated in order to keep them loyal. The timing of the protests suggest that Thaksin's money is a factor if not the core reason for the protest. The perception that the average protester cannot articulate the reason they are protesting makes it possible that events are not driven by grass roots groups seeking change but by the leadership in their quest for political power.

The methods used by the protesters further alienate people from their cause. Massive disruption of transportation systems and almost daily bombings aren't making people more sympathetic. Systematic denials of responsibility after each incident make the leadership seem truly unbelievable.

At this point what are the protesters fighting for, and what are they willing to accept in order to bring life back to normal? If they want elections they can have them. 90 days seems out of the question for the PM but certainly within 180 days it is possible that elections could be held. Would they really start a civil war for the sake of 90 days? Unless the protesters cause a complete break down of law and order it is certain that elections will be held within the next year.

If elections are held it is unlikely that the wages and standard of living will significantly improve for the average protester overnight even if the PTP wins. If civil war erupts it will mean disaster for everyone, and for a long time. They have far more to lose than they can realistically expect to gain.

I visited the protest zone this morning. I saw the barricades with my own eyes. I saw the police and the army on the streets. They are armed, they are ready. It is a powder keg just waiting for a match. If the protesters force a showdown with the army I have no doubt that hundreds if not thousands could die. Is that price worth paying in order to speed up elections by a few days? Thailand has been my home for most of the last decade. I have always seen Thailand as a success compared to its neighbors. I have been to Cambodia and seen the people scarred by their civil war from which they have yet to recover. I do not wish the same fate on Thailand.

[Old Man River]

My feeling is that Abhisit has little control and that there are a hardcore group who will replce him and crack down far more violently if he doesnt do what they want to a minimal degree first. Right now having Anhisit going on about poltical solutions that he is in no position to bring off is probably better than what could replace it. Listen to Chamlong, Newin, some Dem MPs and other shadowy characters. This is a very very high stakes power game and it likely wont be resolved by any "normal" political play at the stage it is at now

Reporters have been asking Abhisit about his duty. Unless everyone steps back this one is going to end in tears.

I'm sure Abhisit would quit rather than preside over a crackdown, probably Anupong too.

It might well be an indicator if one or both do quit that there would be a severe crackdown.

They are fighting now near Don Muang.

[Publicus]

My feeling is that Abhisit has little control and that there are a hardcore group who will replce him and crack down far more violently if he doesnt do what they want to a minimal degree first. Right now having Anhisit going on about poltical solutions that he is in no position to bring off is probably better than what could replace it. Listen to Chamlong, Newin, some Dem MPs and other shadowy characters. This is a very very high stakes power game and it likely wont be resolved by any "normal" political play at the stage it is at now

Reporters have been asking Abhisit about his duty. Unless everyone steps back this one is going to end in tears.

I'm sure Abhisit would quit rather than preside over a crackdown, probably Anupong too.

It might well be an indicator if one or both do quit that there would be a severe crackdown.

They are fighting now near Don Muang.

It is credible that rather than a wholesale and bloody crackdown Abhisit and Anupong would prefer to decapitate the Redshirt leadership by nabbing the leaders and this looks like it might be the best opportunity or "timing" to seize at least some of them. This may be what is happening as the new orders to the mob are to return to the greater safety of the static and fortified base at Centerpoint. Movement away from their so far secure Centerpoint base exposes them and provides the government the occasion/opportunity to nab and decapitate.

It looks like the Redshirt leaders in their increasing desperation to keep things alive have blundered by sending a group from their base fortification at Rajaprasong only to face a situation in which special forces troop units are outmaneouvering the Reds to separate the wanderers to Phatum Thani from the main base. The Redshirts stranded out at Don Muang aren't dealing with military conscripts out there. Kwanchai is scrambling away from the scene.

Edited April 28, 2010 by Publicus

[Old Man River]

My feeling is that Abhisit has little control and that there are a hardcore group who will replce him and crack down far more violently if he doesnt do what they want to a minimal degree first. Right now having Anhisit going on about poltical solutions that he is in no position to bring off is probably better than what could replace it. Listen to Chamlong, Newin, some Dem MPs and other shadowy characters. This is a very very high stakes power game and it likely wont be resolved by any "normal" political play at the stage it is at now

Reporters have been asking Abhisit about his duty. Unless everyone steps back this one is going to end in tears.

I'm sure Abhisit would quit rather than preside over a crackdown, probably Anupong too.

It might well be an indicator if one or both do quit that there would be a severe crackdown.

They are fighting now near Don Muang.

It is credible that rather than a wholesale and bloody crackdown Abhisit and Anupong would prefer to decapitate the Redshirt leadership by nabbing the leaders and this looks like it might be the best opportunity or "timing" to seize at least some of them. This may be what is happening as the new orders to the mob are to return to the greater safety of the static and fortified base at Centerpoint. Movement away from their so far secure Centerpoint base exposes them and provides the government the occasion/opportunity to nab and decapitate.

The bottom line is that there aren't many left at Rachaprasong despite what Jatuporn says and if the authorities wanted to, they could take it now. It looks like the military is trying to stop this group from returning. Stay safe.

Edited April 28, 2010 by Old Man River

[lannarebirth]

My feeling is that Abhisit has little control and that there are a hardcore group who will replce him and crack down far more violently if he doesnt do what they want to a minimal degree first. Right now having Anhisit going on about poltical solutions that he is in no position to bring off is probably better than what could replace it. Listen to Chamlong, Newin, some Dem MPs and other shadowy characters. This is a very very high stakes power game and it likely wont be resolved by any "normal" political play at the stage it is at now

Reporters have been asking Abhisit about his duty. Unless everyone steps back this one is going to end in tears.

I'm sure Abhisit would quit rather than preside over a crackdown, probably Anupong too.

It might well be an indicator if one or both do quit that there would be a severe crackdown.

They are fighting now near Don Muang.

It is credible that rather than a wholesale and bloody crackdown Abhisit and Anupong would prefer to decapitate the Redshirt leadership by nabbing the leaders and this looks like it might be the best opportunity or "timing" to seize at least some of them. This may be what is happening as the new orders to the mob are to return to the greater safety of the static and fortified base at Centerpoint. Movement away from their so far secure Centerpoint base exposes them and provides the government the occasion/opportunity to nab and decapitate.

The anti-Roach Motel concept. They can check out but they can't check back in. Divide and conquer.

[Groongthep]

My feeling is that Abhisit has little control and that there are a hardcore group who will replce him and crack down far more violently if he doesnt do what they want to a minimal degree first. Right now having Anhisit going on about poltical solutions that he is in no position to bring off is probably better than what could replace it. Listen to Chamlong, Newin, some Dem MPs and other shadowy characters. This is a very very high stakes power game and it likely wont be resolved by any "normal" political play at the stage it is at now

Reporters have been asking Abhisit about his duty. Unless everyone steps back this one is going to end in tears.

I'm sure Abhisit would quit rather than preside over a crackdown, probably Anupong too.

It might well be an indicator if one or both do quit that there would be a severe crackdown.

They are fighting now near Don Muang.

It is credible that rather than a wholesale and bloody crackdown Abhisit and Anupong would prefer to decapitate the Redshirt leadership by nabbing the leaders and this looks like it might be the best opportunity or "timing" to seize at least some of them. This may be what is happening as the new orders to the mob are to return to the greater safety of the static and fortified base at Centerpoint. Movement away from their so far secure Centerpoint base exposes them and provides the government the occasion/opportunity to nab and decapitate.

If the government seizes the present red shirt leadership they will only be quickly replaced by new leaders. A bloody "crackdown" by the army will almost certainly result in the red shirts temporarily going underground only to return later armed for an all out guerilla war which will plunge the country into utter chaos.

To avoid this, the government could stick with the age old strategy that has been working in Thailand for decades. They could, 1.) Look as if they are taking the high road, dissolve Parliment and call for new elections. 2.) When the red shirts win by landslide numbers once again, accuse their government of corruption and stage yet another coup. 3.) When the poor once again protest repeat numbers 1 and 2.

This tactic has been working for decades so why change now?

I'm only being half sarcastic. Anything could happen and nothing would surprise me.

[clausewitz]

To avoid this, the government could stick with the age old strategy that has been working in Thailand for decades. They could, 1.) Look as if they are taking the high road, dissolve Parliment and call for new elections. 2.) When the red shirts win by landslide numbers once again, accuse their government of corruption and stage yet another coup. 3.) When the poor once again protest repeat numbers 1 and 2.

This tactic has been working for decades so why change now?

I'm only being half sarcastic. Anything could happen and nothing would surprise me.

Yes, why they haven't done this is strange. The courts will do whatever Prem and otehrs want them to do so why delay the inevitable. Get the elections underway then after the results favour pheu thai wait a few months and then dissolve the party and put a few leaders in jail.

[SomTumTiger]

PM is handling himself well on Hard Talk right now.

[zirc]

Red shirt leaders denied on Tuesday their involvement in a campaign designed to overthrow the monarchy and threatened to sue the government for defamation.

Redshirt leader Weng Tojirakarn said the reds were struggling to achieve six goals, none of which was about overthrowing the monarchy as alleged.

Well they would, wouldn't they. Did you expect them to say that it's true, and get strung up to the nearest light pole by their own supporters?

Actually, the other day... Bizarrely enough, he did say they would:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=3530489

2. The red shirts want to amend the Constitution to weaken the monarchy. Dr Weng Tojirakarn, one of the red-shirt leaders, admitted the other day that one of the political aspirations of the red shirts is to reduce the Thai monarchy to a similar status to that of Japan, the UK, the Netherlands and others.

Edited April 28, 2010 by zirc

[rixalex]

2.) When the red shirts win by landslide numbers once again,

Are you not aware of the last election results?

[SomTumTiger]

PM is handling himself well on Hard Talk right now.

First time I have watched Hard Talk - is it normal practice to interrupt people repeatedly when they are speaking? Maybe 'Course talk' would be better.

[zirc]

What a lot forget is the evidence against the excecs in both cases was slam dunk level. The PPP one was an outrageous attempt to undermine the democraqtic process in multiple districts. Apart form the contropvery in the whole party disolution stuff the two actual cases should be celebrated as moves forward in Thai democracy. Of course you cannot find anyone who claims to be a democracy activist in the whole country who sees it this way which is kind of odd. The culture is well everyone is at it. So what if we get caught. It is no big deal. It is unfair because others werent caught.

The Demo case will be interesting as the evidence is very weak but the poltical pressure from every side will be to do it. Still both the othjer cases took 9 months so anything less thna that would be a double stanbdard and unacceptable to any true democracy activist or anti-double standard campaigner not that the country really has any of those

"The two actual cases should be celebrated as moves forward in Thai democracy."

Quite right, hammered.

Thirded in agreement.

Keep it going without amendment.

In regards to the Democrat case, I see this afternoon, the courts accepted the case.

The document evidence tally submitted today was 80,000 pages.

That's gonna take this case QUITE a while. Probably into next year.

Edited April 28, 2010 by zirc

[pedro01]

It is credible that rather than a wholesale and bloody crackdown Abhisit and Anupong would prefer to decapitate the Redshirt leadership by nabbing the leaders and this looks like it might be the best opportunity or "timing" to seize at least some of them. This may be what is happening as the new orders to the mob are to return to the greater safety of the static and fortified base at Centerpoint. Movement away from their so far secure Centerpoint base exposes them and provides the government the occasion/opportunity to nab and decapitate.

If the government seizes the present red shirt leadership they will only be quickly replaced by new leaders. A bloody "crackdown" by the army will almost certainly result in the red shirts temporarily going underground only to return later armed for an all out guerilla war which will plunge the country into utter chaos.

To avoid this, the government could stick with the age old strategy that has been working in Thailand for decades. They could, 1.) Look as if they are taking the high road, dissolve Parliment and call for new elections. 2.) When the red shirts win by landslide numbers once again, accuse their government of corruption and stage yet another coup. 3.) When the poor once again protest repeat numbers 1 and 2.

This tactic has been working for decades so why change now?

I'm only being half sarcastic. Anything could happen and nothing would surprise me.

Why would the red shirts win by a landslide ?

Thaksin did that in 2001 but never repeated the feat again. Elections now would more than likely end up with a coalition.

[Netfan]

To avoid this, the government could stick with the age old strategy that has been working in Thailand for decades. They could, 1.) Look as if they are taking the high road, dissolve Parliment and call for new elections. 2.) When the red shirts win by landslide numbers once again, accuse their government of corruption and stage yet another coup. 3.) When the poor once again protest repeat numbers 1 and 2.

This tactic has been working for decades so why change now?

I'm only being half sarcastic. Anything could happen and nothing would surprise me.

Yes, why they haven't done this is strange. The courts will do whatever Prem and otehrs want them to do so why delay the inevitable. Get the elections underway then after the results favour pheu thai wait a few months and then dissolve the party and put a few leaders in jail.

Impugning the integrity of the Thai courts. Interesting. How is it that Thaksin passed the test when he was first appointed PM? And why was it it took so long for his and the Mrs. court cases to progress? How is it that all the Red leaders are out free (well, except for the guy who got caught cowering in the van today)? Are you saying the judges did not follow the advice of His Majesty when he told them to be fair (not this time, the last time)? Or maybe its because they didn't take the pastry box that Thaksin's lawyers left on the table?

[rixalex]

PM is handling himself well on Hard Talk right now.

First time I have watched Hard Talk - is it normal practice to interrupt people repeatedly when they are speaking? Maybe 'Course talk' would be better.

Politicians generally have a habit of drifting away from the question that was asked to talk about something they would rather. If the interviewer politely waited for them to say their piece they might run out of time. Interrupting is therefore necessary at times, although if done incessantly, can be very annoying. Tim Sebastian was very good at letting them speak at the right time. Unfortunately he has left the show.

[SomTumTiger]

PM looked good on BBC Hard Talk. Interviewer really tried to paint him in a negative light, and he rebutted every one of her assertions and looked very good, imo.

However, if a person ever interrupted me repeatedly, like that, I'd but my foot in their ass. (Which is what the PM did).

[zirc]

Abhisit to be on the show Hard Talk.

Today I think?

Not sure what time.

Abhisit appeared on that show last year. Unusually for Hardtalk, it was a bit dull. Hope today's is a bit more lively.

One thing they don't do on Hardtalk is pull any punches. Previous Thai PM's have refused to appear on the show, and i don't think that was so much to do with their lack of command of English, but rather lack of control of the questions.

Thaksin never did the show... for the lack of control of questions (no hand marker signs with an " X" on it) and also probable embarrassment over his lack of command of English, as well, despite his dubious English-language obtained PhD.

[FarangCravings]

LOL he just could not agree he was not voted in by the people could he LOL simple clear consise question

If he cant answer that he should not be running a country

[FarangCravings]

PM looked good on BBC Hard Talk. Interviewer really tried to paint him in a negative light, and he rebutted every one of her assertions and looked very good, imo.

However, if a person ever interrupted me repeatedly, like that, I'd but my foot in their ass. (Which is what the PM did).

You gotta be joking mate he did not look good at all

[rixalex]

Why would the red shirts win by a landslide ?

Thaksin did that in 2001 but never repeated the feat again. Elections now would more than likely end up with a coalition.

Wrong actually. Thaksin did it once in 2005 at a time when his tentacles of power and influence were everywhere. 2001 was not a landslide. I agree though about the likely result of an election at present.

[SomTumTiger]

Red mind sees what is wants to see, i suppose.

[FarangCravings]

Red mind sees what is wants to see, i suppose.

Yellow Mind sees what it wants to see i suppose

[lannarebirth]

To avoid this, the government could stick with the age old strategy that has been working in Thailand for decades. They could, 1.) Look as if they are taking the high road, dissolve Parliment and call for new elections. 2.) When the red shirts win by landslide numbers once again, accuse their government of corruption and stage yet another coup. 3.) When the poor once again protest repeat numbers 1 and 2.

This tactic has been working for decades so why change now?

I'm only being half sarcastic. Anything could happen and nothing would surprise me.

Yes, why they haven't done this is strange. The courts will do whatever Prem and otehrs want them to do so why delay the inevitable. Get the elections underway then after the results favour pheu thai wait a few months and then dissolve the party and put a few leaders in jail.

Impugning the integrity of the Thai courts. Interesting. How is it that Thaksin passed the test when he was first appointed PM? And why was it it took so long for his and the Mrs. court cases to progress? How is it that all the Red leaders are out free (well, except for the guy who got caught cowering in the van today)? Are you saying the judges did not follow the advice of His Majesty when he told them to be fair (not this time, the last time)? Or maybe its because they didn't take the pastry box that Thaksin's lawyers left on the table?

Fairness or equity is a fairly new concept in law and has a corrupting influence IMO, particularly in a society prone to "pu yai" tendencies. Good laws, applied equally without prejudice create the most "fairness" over time.

[jayboy]

PM looked good on BBC Hard Talk. Interviewer really tried to paint him in a negative light, and he rebutted every one of her assertions and looked very good, imo.

However, if a person ever interrupted me repeatedly, like that, I'd but my foot in their ass. (Which is what the PM did).

You gotta be joking mate he did not look good at all

I thought he did okay though not perhaps brilliantly.For those who criticise the interviewer's style (which personally I thought was fine) I would point out that Abhisit knows the rules and can handle incisive questioning very well.Tim Sebastian was far more direct in his approach by the way.And I thought Abhisit made a great point when he observed the red blockade would not have been tolerated under the UK's Public Order Act.Basically Abhisit did what needed to be done, and came over as a reasonable man.

[whybother]

LOL he just could not agree he was not voted in by the people could he LOL simple clear consise question

If he cant answer that he should not be running a country

But he was voted for by the people. The people vote for MPs. He is an MP. MPs vote for PM.

[FarangCravings]

PM looked good on BBC Hard Talk. Interviewer really tried to paint him in a negative light, and he rebutted every one of her assertions and looked very good, imo.

However, if a person ever interrupted me repeatedly, like that, I'd but my foot in their ass. (Which is what the PM did).

You gotta be joking mate he did not look good at all

I thought he did okay though not perhaps brilliantly.For those who criticise the interviewer's style (which personally I thought was fine) I would point out that Abhisit knows the rules and can handle incisive questioning very well.Tim Sebastian was far more direct in his approach by the way.And I thought Abhisit made a great point when he observed the red blockade would not have been tolerated under the UK's Public Order Act.Basically Abhisit did what needed to be done, and came over as a reasonable man.

I agree reasonable but that one question made him look bad she asked a direct question and he dodged it knwing there was only one answer

It was clear for everyone to see

[SomTumTiger]

PM looked good on BBC Hard Talk. Interviewer really tried to paint him in a negative light, and he rebutted every one of her assertions and looked very good, imo.

However, if a person ever interrupted me repeatedly, like that, I'd but my foot in their ass. (Which is what the PM did).

You gotta be joking mate he did not look good at all

I thought he did okay though not perhaps brilliantly.For those who criticise the interviewer's style (which personally I thought was fine) I would point out that Abhisit knows the rules and can handle incisive questioning very well.Tim Sebastian was far more direct in his approach by the way.And I thought Abhisit made a great point when he observed the red blockade would not have been tolerated under the UK's Public Order Act.Basically Abhisit did what needed to be done, and came over as a reasonable man.

Never thought I'd see the day where Jayboy and I would stand on the same side of the issue.

[FarangCravings]

LOL he just could not agree he was not voted in by the people could he LOL simple clear consise question

If he cant answer that he should not be running a country

But he was voted for by the people. The people vote for MPs. He is an MP. MPs vote for PM.

Thats exactly what its all about he came through the back door people did not vote for him and thats what the problem with his office is

[whybother]

LOL he just could not agree he was not voted in by the people could he LOL simple clear consise question

If he cant answer that he should not be running a country

But he was voted for by the people. The people vote for MPs. He is an MP. MPs vote for PM.

Thats exactly what its all about he came through the back door people did not vote for him and thats what the problem with his office is

He was voted for the same way Thaksin, Samak and Somchai were.