'Leaked' Reports Blame Thai Military For Some Crackdown Deaths

[SomTumTiger]

Lest we all forget -

[cdnvic]

Let's stick to reasoned discussion rather than exchanging links back and forth.

[rubl]

These events are very complicated, lets wait and see how the eventual court procedures play out here

A good idea, as well, for the supposedly leaked documents.

Can we agree that the leaked documents are with an overwhelming certainty not fake?

If the contents of the documents consisted only of your portion, but just because that portion leaked may match your statements is no reason to conclude that the entire set of documents are authentic as there is no corroboration of the documents beyond your portion.

I think most people (and media) have accepted beyond reasonable doubt that the DSI leaks are genuine.

From the OP "Documents supposedly leaked from the Department of Special Investigation". No further comment necessary

[AleG]

Of course the army knew in advance this was exactly what the Red Leaders wanted to make them look like. The whole game was to force the army to over react and maybe get a nation wide backlash... didn't work.

I've heard this conspiracy theory more than a few times from people of a particular political persuasion. There was that Wikileaks stuff about an unnamed senior PAD leader allegedly wanting at least a couple of dozen deaths at the big PAD demo outside Parliament in order to force the Army's intervention. But, IMO, at worst this was just dark hope and bluster on the part of that PAD leader. Is there any evidence to support your conspiracy theory? A speech by a red leader? A secretly-recorded conversation? Any leaked Army intel? Anything?

How about Jatuporn (slightly on topic I suppose) saying from the stage "We will fight to the last drop of blood"? Or "'But the red-shirts are not worried. They are ready to sacrifice their lives to bring back the true democracy and justice to the country’, said UDD leader Jatuporn Prompan."

To me it sounds like a readiness to get (other) people killed in order to achieve their goals.

Edited December 28, 2010 by AleG

[Insight]

If the documents are not available to the public can they still be considered "leaked" ?

How many days has it been now? What could possibly be the delay in producing the report along with all its damaging content? Are they waiting to drip-feed other revelations in the report to the media? But what could they be given we've already seen the alleged conclusion which might as well be laying the blame on Elvis...?

The longer they leave us waiting, the more this begins to smell of Juttaporn.

[animatic]

Nice try to spin it Simon.

No sale; but that's typical.

Nice try to spin what? Do you have any evidence to back up your conspiracy theories or don't you?

And Nick has asked you for some specifics about your friends' experiences of this year's troubles in Bangkok. Are you going to provide some?

Theories need not be more than theories,

But can be perfectly valid as food for thought.

Yet, you seem compelled to push against them, so that makes them seem more plausible.

And I am not responding to Nick's specific questions until.

a ) I am not so tired, and can be 100% clear,

b ) I am done with my heavy New Years work load.

c ) I ask permission to quote two people before I do. Or not quote and give less clarity.

Rather than potentially make them a target by just typing willy nilly.

Any rush here? No, I thought not.

You have any evidence that my theories are proved wrong without a doubt?

Works both ways.

[Orac]

If the documents are not available to the public can they still be considered "leaked" ?

How many days has it been now? What could possibly be the delay in producing the report along with all its damaging content? Are they waiting to drip-feed other revelations in the report to the media? But what could they be given we've already seen the alleged conclusion which might as well be laying the blame on Elvis...?

The longer they leave us waiting, the more this begins to smell of Juttaporn.

You could equally argue that they have not been released because they is more damaging info to be seen. It seems very odd that, since there seems to be no doubt that these reports exist, they have not been officially made public since this would be the easiest way to prove that the 'leaked' reports are a fabrication. I assume the problem with this is that the government would have to act on them if this were the case.

There seem to be far too many posts on here trying to discredit these leaks rather than calling on the government/DSI to officially publish them so that the 'truth' can be known.

[mkawish]

Just where are our Farang leaders when we need one to just

tell the DSI to immediately and promptly

publish its findings finished or not....?

Will the leaders pls stand up or respond kindly....?

If the documents are not available to the public can they still be considered "leaked" ?

How many days has it been now? What could possibly be the delay in producing the report along with all its damaging content? Are they waiting to drip-feed other revelations in the report to the media? But what could they be given we've already seen the alleged conclusion which might as well be laying the blame on Elvis...?

The longer they leave us waiting, the more this begins to smell of Juttaporn.

You could equally argue that they have not been released because they is more damaging info to be seen. It seems very odd that, since there seems to be no doubt that these reports exist, they have not been officially made public since this would be the easiest way to prove that the 'leaked' reports are a fabrication. I assume the problem with this is that the government would have to act on them if this were the case.

There seem to be far too many posts on here trying to discredit these leaks rather than calling on the government/DSI to officially publish them so that the 'truth' can be known.

[animatic]

Unfinished findings are just that, INCOMPLETE, and so can show a picture that is incorrect.

While I certainly wish the report in it's entirety was already released,

a partial and incorrect report is much worse than an accurate one released when finished.

[Pi Sek]

If the documents are not available to the public can they still be considered "leaked" ?

How many days has it been now? What could possibly be the delay in producing the report along with all its damaging content? Are they waiting to drip-feed other revelations in the report to the media? But what could they be given we've already seen the alleged conclusion which might as well be laying the blame on Elvis...?

The longer they leave us waiting, the more this begins to smell of Juttaporn.

You could equally argue that they have not been released because they is more damaging info to be seen. It seems very odd that, since there seems to be no doubt that these reports exist, they have not been officially made public since this would be the easiest way to prove that the 'leaked' reports are a fabrication. I assume the problem with this is that the government would have to act on them if this were the case.

There seem to be far too many posts on here trying to discredit these leaks rather than calling on the government/DSI to officially publish them so that the 'truth' can be known.

I don't think there is anyone who doesn't believe the leaked reports exist, or that they contain officially recorded details and/or evidence - and I don't think anyone here doesn't want to see the full DSI report. The questions start at "why have only some details in the full report been leaked", go through "why are the only leaked details blaming the military" and end with "is this a Jatuporn-edit". I think the doubters don't want to acknowledge a report of yet-unknown credibility, that's all.

I have no informed idea why the full DSI report is still being withheld... my guess is that either they're waiting for the army to approve the press release or that there is some full-disclosure reason (like they want to release all details at the same time to make sure they don't miss anyone). I doubt it's the latter, but you never know... given that the leaked report only covers a small fraction of the casualties, perhaps the full report is much more damning of the Red Shirt side? Maybe it contains names that haven't been caught yet? And maybe some of those names are either wanted criminals on the run (and so the DSI don't want to alert them to their suspicion) or "untouchables" (on either side)? But Insight is right, "The longer they leave us waiting, the more this begins to smell of Juttaporn."

I don't think that the government really believes that this year's bloodshed will be "forgotten over time". Answers will be forthcoming, I am quite sure of that (although there will be the usual ambiguity, I expect - let's hope otherwise). I also don't think that the government was at fault, even if there were cases that the army perhaps was. Different entities in Thailand, remember.

[Insight]

If the documents are not available to the public can they still be considered "leaked" ?

How many days has it been now? What could possibly be the delay in producing the report along with all its damaging content? Are they waiting to drip-feed other revelations in the report to the media? But what could they be given we've already seen the alleged conclusion which might as well be laying the blame on Elvis...?

The longer they leave us waiting, the more this begins to smell of Juttaporn.

You could equally argue that they have not been released because they is more damaging info to be seen. It seems very odd that, since there seems to be no doubt that these reports exist, they have not been officially made public since this would be the easiest way to prove that the 'leaked' reports are a fabrication. I assume the problem with this is that the government would have to act on them if this were the case.

There seem to be far too many posts on here trying to discredit these leaks rather than calling on the government/DSI to officially publish them so that the 'truth' can be known.

It's the UDD asking us to believe, not the DSI. Okay then, show us.

[Asa]

If the documents are not available to the public can they still be considered "leaked" ?

How many days has it been now? What could possibly be the delay in producing the report along with all its damaging content? Are they waiting to drip-feed other revelations in the report to the media? But what could they be given we've already seen the alleged conclusion which might as well be laying the blame on Elvis...?

The longer they leave us waiting, the more this begins to smell of Juttaporn.

You could equally argue that they have not been released because they is more damaging info to be seen. It seems very odd that, since there seems to be no doubt that these reports exist, they have not been officially made public since this would be the easiest way to prove that the 'leaked' reports are a fabrication. I assume the problem with this is that the government would have to act on them if this were the case.

There seem to be far too many posts on here trying to discredit these leaks rather than calling on the government/DSI to officially publish them so that the 'truth' can be known.

It's the UDD asking us to believe, not the DSI. Okay then, show us.

Orac's way is right to ask if the Gov. and the Army hide the fact from us. If Jatuporn made things up, it's DSI, and CRES, and the Government duty to explain the killings, or at least give full cooperation to Khun Kanit's panel.

[Orac]

If the documents are not available to the public can they still be considered "leaked" ?

How many days has it been now? What could possibly be the delay in producing the report along with all its damaging content? Are they waiting to drip-feed other revelations in the report to the media? But what could they be given we've already seen the alleged conclusion which might as well be laying the blame on Elvis...?

The longer they leave us waiting, the more this begins to smell of Juttaporn.

You could equally argue that they have not been released because they is more damaging info to be seen. It seems very odd that, since there seems to be no doubt that these reports exist, they have not been officially made public since this would be the easiest way to prove that the 'leaked' reports are a fabrication. I assume the problem with this is that the government would have to act on them if this were the case.

There seem to be far too many posts on here trying to discredit these leaks rather than calling on the government/DSI to officially publish them so that the 'truth' can be known.

It's the UDD asking us to believe, not the DSI. Okay then, show us.

UDD? Reuters claim that the reports were leaked to them directly from the DSI and the Nation attributes them to a 'reliable source' though this source did say they would be published in full which I have not seen anywhere yet.

[Insight]

It's the UDD asking us to believe, not the DSI. Okay then, show us.

UDD? Reuters claim that the reports were leaked to them directly from the DSI and the Nation attributes them to a 'reliable source' though this source did say they would be published in full which I have not seen anywhere yet.

The UDD has the most to gain from these revelations. I'm sure they're pushing for the public distribution of this 'leaked' report as much as we are. Let's hope this 'reliable source' pulls through soon for the sake of clarity.

[Orac]

It's the UDD asking us to believe, not the DSI. Okay then, show us.

UDD? Reuters claim that the reports were leaked to them directly from the DSI and the Nation attributes them to a 'reliable source' though this source did say they would be published in full which I have not seen anywhere yet.

The UDD has the most to gain from these revelations. I'm sure they're pushing for the public distribution of this 'leaked' report as much as we are. Let's hope this 'reliable source' pulls through soon for the sake of clarity.

Something we agree on!

[Emptyset]

If the documents are not available to the public can they still be considered "leaked" ?

How many days has it been now? What could possibly be the delay in producing the report along with all its damaging content? Are they waiting to drip-feed other revelations in the report to the media? But what could they be given we've already seen the alleged conclusion which might as well be laying the blame on Elvis...?

The longer they leave us waiting, the more this begins to smell of Juttaporn.

Clearly you missed my post the other day where I linked to the full document. It was published in Thai in Prachatai, not translated yet that I know of.

[Emptyset]

If the documents are not available to the public can they still be considered "leaked" ?

How many days has it been now? What could possibly be the delay in producing the report along with all its damaging content? Are they waiting to drip-feed other revelations in the report to the media? But what could they be given we've already seen the alleged conclusion which might as well be laying the blame on Elvis...?

The longer they leave us waiting, the more this begins to smell of Juttaporn.

You could equally argue that they have not been released because they is more damaging info to be seen. It seems very odd that, since there seems to be no doubt that these reports exist, they have not been officially made public since this would be the easiest way to prove that the 'leaked' reports are a fabrication. I assume the problem with this is that the government would have to act on them if this were the case.

There seem to be far too many posts on here trying to discredit these leaks rather than calling on the government/DSI to officially publish them so that the 'truth' can be known.

I don't think there is anyone who doesn't believe the leaked reports exist, or that they contain officially recorded details and/or evidence - and I don't think anyone here doesn't want to see the full DSI report. The questions start at "why have only some details in the full report been leaked", go through "why are the only leaked details blaming the military" and end with "is this a Jatuporn-edit". I think the doubters don't want to acknowledge a report of yet-unknown credibility, that's all.

I have no informed idea why the full DSI report is still being withheld... my guess is that either they're waiting for the army to approve the press release or that there is some full-disclosure reason (like they want to release all details at the same time to make sure they don't miss anyone). I doubt it's the latter, but you never know... given that the leaked report only covers a small fraction of the casualties, perhaps the full report is much more damning of the Red Shirt side? Maybe it contains names that haven't been caught yet? And maybe some of those names are either wanted criminals on the run (and so the DSI don't want to alert them to their suspicion) or "untouchables" (on either side)? But Insight is right, "The longer they leave us waiting, the more this begins to smell of Juttaporn."

I don't think that the government really believes that this year's bloodshed will be "forgotten over time". Answers will be forthcoming, I am quite sure of that (although there will be the usual ambiguity, I expect - let's hope otherwise). I also don't think that the government was at fault, even if there were cases that the army perhaps was. Different entities in Thailand, remember.

I doubt there's any "full report" ready yet - i.e. one document that covers all the deaths. Several reports have been leaked, which cover the previously mentioned deaths. I did ask before why it was just these reports which had leaked (presumably by a red sympathizer), and concluded that perhaps other reports are inconclusive, incomplete or damaging to reds. But even if one were ready it'd be for military and government eyes only... the DSI aren't planning to release any report which implicates soldiers. That is obvious.

[Insight]

If the documents are not available to the public can they still be considered "leaked" ?

How many days has it been now? What could possibly be the delay in producing the report along with all its damaging content? Are they waiting to drip-feed other revelations in the report to the media? But what could they be given we've already seen the alleged conclusion which might as well be laying the blame on Elvis...?

The longer they leave us waiting, the more this begins to smell of Juttaporn.

Clearly you missed my post the other day where I linked to the full document. It was published in Thai in Prachatai, not translated yet that I know of.

Please send the link again.

[Emptyset]

If the documents are not available to the public can they still be considered "leaked" ?

How many days has it been now? What could possibly be the delay in producing the report along with all its damaging content? Are they waiting to drip-feed other revelations in the report to the media? But what could they be given we've already seen the alleged conclusion which might as well be laying the blame on Elvis...?

The longer they leave us waiting, the more this begins to smell of Juttaporn.

Clearly you missed my post the other day where I linked to the full document. It was published in Thai in Prachatai, not translated yet that I know of.

Please send the link again.

http://www.prachatai3.info/journal/2010/12/32440 - but it seems to be only the one covering the Wat incident. Haven't seen the other reports published yet.

[rubl]

If the documents are not available to the public can they still be considered "leaked" ?

How many days has it been now? What could possibly be the delay in producing the report along with all its damaging content? Are they waiting to drip-feed other revelations in the report to the media? But what could they be given we've already seen the alleged conclusion which might as well be laying the blame on Elvis...?

The longer they leave us waiting, the more this begins to smell of Juttaporn.

You could equally argue that they have not been released because they is more damaging info to be seen. It seems very odd that, since there seems to be no doubt that these reports exist, they have not been officially made public since this would be the easiest way to prove that the 'leaked' reports are a fabrication. I assume the problem with this is that the government would have to act on them if this were the case.

There seem to be far too many posts on here trying to discredit these leaks rather than calling on the government/DSI to officially publish them so that the 'truth' can be known.

I do not see the logic of publication just to prove the leaked ones are a fabrication. If the DSI / government would do that now, they'd be compelled to do the same every time someone comes with a document / tape / video / etc.

For the moment 'no further comment' would seem sufficient.

[rubl]

I doubt there's any "full report" ready yet - i.e. one document that covers all the deaths. Several reports have been leaked, which cover the previously mentioned deaths. I did ask before why it was just these reports which had leaked (presumably by a red sympathizer), and concluded that perhaps other reports are inconclusive, incomplete or damaging to reds. But even if one were ready it'd be for military and government eyes only... the DSI aren't planning to release any report which implicates soldiers. That is obvious.

Gen Chavalit has just said ""I don't fault the military for carrying out orders issued by politicians," he said, apportioning the blame to the government rather than the anti-riot forces."" Obviously

[Insight]

http://www.prachatai3.info/journal/2010/12/32440 - but it seems to be only the one covering the Wat incident. Haven't seen the other reports published yet.

Thanks! First glances of the scans the reports look legit. Scanning through I noticed the name of another foreign journalist who was trapped in the temple overnight, Andrew Buncombe, thus fueling the authenticity of the documents. The resolution of the scans is nowhere near the required level to detect any editing; one way this could be proven is if the DSI were to release the originals - something I can't see the DSI agreeing too, and even if they did they'd have a difficult time denying they hadn't been edited by themselves after the release of the leak.

[Emptyset]

http://www.prachatai...l/2010/12/32440 - but it seems to be only the one covering the Wat incident. Haven't seen the other reports published yet.

Thanks! First glances of the scans the reports look legit. Scanning through I noticed the name of another foreign journalist who was trapped in the temple overnight, Andrew Buncombe, thus fueling the authenticity of the documents. The resolution of the scans is nowhere near the required level to detect any editing; one way this could be proven is if the DSI were to release the originals - something I can't see the DSI agreeing too, and even if they did they'd have a difficult time denying they hadn't been edited by themselves after the release of the leak.

Yes, and they can't really release these reports even if they are real, now they've publicly claimed they're fake. Obviously I don't believe they planned to release them, but if they do, they'll need to do some editing of their own to avoid proving themselves liars. But then they can hardly just change a few small details and still claim Jatuporn didn't get hold of the real reports. Unless they argue Jatuporn faked the report, but faked it entirely correctly. You never know...

[Siam Simon]

Theories need not be more than theories,

But can be perfectly valid as food for thought.

Yet, you seem compelled to push against them, so that makes them seem more plausible.

Yes, I agree that we should discuss different theories, and on ALL the issues. And I haven't pushed against your conspiracy theory of Reds instigating the slaughter of Reds. I've simply asked you for some evidence to back it up, but you don't seem to have any.

And I am not responding to Nick's specific questions until.

a ) I am not so tired, and can be 100% clear,

b ) I am done with my heavy New Years work load.

c ) I ask permission to quote two people before I do. Or not quote and give less clarity.

Rather than potentially make them a target by just typing willy nilly.

Any rush here? No, I thought not.

Frankly, I don't believe you can come up with anything on your claims about this. I think Nick put you on the spot and now you are trying to wriggle out.

You have any evidence that my theories are proved wrong without a doubt?

Works both ways.

It's normal to present a theory with some supporting evidence. That way, the theory can be built or de-constructed. You have provided a theory supported by speculation and second-guessing Red leaders' thinkings. And you keep presenting this theory as though it's accepted fact (which it seems to be by posters of a certain ilk). But all you and others have done is create a myth. Way to go, Animatic.

[rubl]

http://www.prachatai...l/2010/12/32440 - but it seems to be only the one covering the Wat incident. Haven't seen the other reports published yet.

Thanks! First glances of the scans the reports look legit. Scanning through I noticed the name of another foreign journalist who was trapped in the temple overnight, Andrew Buncombe, thus fueling the authenticity of the documents. The resolution of the scans is nowhere near the required level to detect any editing; one way this could be proven is if the DSI were to release the originals - something I can't see the DSI agreeing too, and even if they did they'd have a difficult time denying they hadn't been edited by themselves after the release of the leak.

Yes, and they can't really release these reports even if they are real, now they've publicly claimed they're fake. Obviously I don't believe they planned to release them, but if they do, they'll need to do some editing of their own to avoid proving themselves liars. But then they can hardly just change a few small details and still claim Jatuporn didn't get hold of the real reports. Unless they argue Jatuporn faked the report, but faked it entirely correctly. You never know...

This is only valid assuming the 'leaked reports' are real.

As far as I know the reports have not been examined yet (e.g. paper, stamps, signatures, blackened parts of sentences, etc.). Until it is proven those 'leaked reports' are real, all else is speculation.

It doesn't matter too much, for some it's clear the army and/or government is to blame anyway

[Siam Simon]

I doubt there's any "full report" ready yet - i.e. one document that covers all the deaths. Several reports have been leaked, which cover the previously mentioned deaths. I did ask before why it was just these reports which had leaked (presumably by a red sympathizer), and concluded that perhaps other reports are inconclusive, incomplete or damaging to reds. But even if one were ready it'd be for military and government eyes only... the DSI aren't planning to release any report which implicates soldiers. That is obvious.

Gen Chavalit has just said ""I don't fault the military for carrying out orders issued by politicians," he said, apportioning the blame to the government rather than the anti-riot forces."" Obviously

Yeah, a pretty lame attempt at spin by Gen Chavalit in view of the fact that the CRES was essentially a military governing body.

[Insight]

Page 15 looks very odd. Okay, I don't read Phasa Thai, but check the following features:

1. The "grain" of the paper looks darker on page 15 and subsequent pages compared to previous pages. Okay, this could owing to a change in the scanner configuration, but...

2. The depth of indenting at the start of each paragraph from page 15 onwards does not match that of the previous document.

3. The formatting of the numbered list does not match that of page 10 to 12. The list on pages 10-12 has the number in the "margin" with the text contained to the right, however on page 15 the text flows underneath the number.

Edit! -

4. The file format has changed from pages PNG for pages 1 to 14, to JPG for pages 15, 16 and 17. This might explain the change in "grain" appearance, but why the change in format?

Edited December 28, 2010 by Insight

[rubl]

I doubt there's any "full report" ready yet - i.e. one document that covers all the deaths. Several reports have been leaked, which cover the previously mentioned deaths. I did ask before why it was just these reports which had leaked (presumably by a red sympathizer), and concluded that perhaps other reports are inconclusive, incomplete or damaging to reds. But even if one were ready it'd be for military and government eyes only... the DSI aren't planning to release any report which implicates soldiers. That is obvious.

Gen Chavalit has just said ""I don't fault the military for carrying out orders issued by politicians," he said, apportioning the blame to the government rather than the anti-riot forces."" Obviously

Yeah, a pretty lame attempt at spin by Gen Chavalit in view of the fact that the CRES was essentially a military governing body.

Actually Gen. Chavalit is right in the sense that the government is responsible for the actions of DSI and CRES

[rubl]

Page 15 looks very odd. Okay, I don't read Phasa Thai, but check the following features:

1. The "grain" of the paper looks darker on page 15 and subsequent pages compared to previous pages. Okay, this could owing to a change in the scanner configuration, but...

2. The depth of indenting at the start of each paragraph from page 15 onwards does not match that of the previous document.

3. The formatting of the numbered list does not match that of page 10 to 12. The list on pages 10-12 has the number in the "margin" with the text contained to the right, however on page 15 the text flows underneath the number.

I think it's an exercise in futility to study the documents from web available images. The real paperwork is needed, IMHO

[Emptyset]

http://www.prachatai...l/2010/12/32440 - but it seems to be only the one covering the Wat incident. Haven't seen the other reports published yet.

Thanks! First glances of the scans the reports look legit. Scanning through I noticed the name of another foreign journalist who was trapped in the temple overnight, Andrew Buncombe, thus fueling the authenticity of the documents. The resolution of the scans is nowhere near the required level to detect any editing; one way this could be proven is if the DSI were to release the originals - something I can't see the DSI agreeing too, and even if they did they'd have a difficult time denying they hadn't been edited by themselves after the release of the leak.

Yes, and they can't really release these reports even if they are real, now they've publicly claimed they're fake. Obviously I don't believe they planned to release them, but if they do, they'll need to do some editing of their own to avoid proving themselves liars. But then they can hardly just change a few small details and still claim Jatuporn didn't get hold of the real reports. Unless they argue Jatuporn faked the report, but faked it entirely correctly. You never know...

This is only valid assuming the 'leaked reports' are real.

As far as I know the reports have not been examined yet (e.g. paper, stamps, signatures, blackened parts of sentences, etc.). Until it is proven those 'leaked reports' are real, all else is speculation.

It doesn't matter too much, for some it's clear the army and/or government is to blame anyway

Who you think is going to examine it? Anyway, I consider the leaks real because that's what the balance of probabilities suggest, considering there's nothing in the leaked reports (as far as I can see) that doesn't match the evidence/testimonies we've seen before. It's nothing to do with thinking the government is to blame for everything, I apply the same standard to the reds. For instance, you can't prove that all or most, of the grenade attacks were due to red affiliated militants, but I believe they are because I haven't seen any evidence to dispute it. It's just the most likely thing. Sometimes the elaborate explanations for events proffered by conspiracy theorists from all sides might be true, but most not, I'd bet. Go with the simplest, most likely explanation imo.

Edited December 28, 2010 by Emptyset