Red Shirts Gather At Democracy Monument.

[whybother]

If it's true that Abhisit is a total puppet of the military anyway, and that any election can be fixed, why bother with a coup?

The Election Commission at the moment appears to be fairly impartial and diligent about its duties and responsibilities. Also - in the last election the PPP majority over the Democrats was about seventy seats. This is problematic for the Democrats and the military and there is no certainty that the events of last year may have dented this margin.

Despite the imposition of the ISA and the demands of the Royal Thai Police both the Yellows and the Reds will be allowed to protest this year and intensify their respective campaigns to such a scale and intensity when there will undoubtedly be a moment when either one or other of the opposing groups over-steps the boundary and then the army will conveniently move in and stage a coup in the interests of national security.

The excuse will then be that no election can be held at that time or at any other time in the immediate future because of the threat of violent tumult and unrest should an election be held. All very convenient.

The PPP HAD a 70 seat majority over the Democrats. The PTP have lost a few through lost by-elections and a heap through defections.

The PTP boycotted the constitution vote last week ... 100 MPs walked out. I don't see that as being problematic for the Democrats.

[TAWP]

It is not about a better fairer Thailand, it is about a 'GIVE ME, GIVE ME'-attitude. It is the same all over the world, perhaps even more so in leftist Europe, where people feel entitled to get money from others that work hard.

Many will have a sharply different view from yourself as to where the GIVE ME GIVE ME attitude can be found in Thailand.

Not really, unless someone is dimwitted.

Perhaps you are talking about people trying to do everything to keep what they make and/or not pay people what might be a fair market-price, in part due to market-collisions or monopoly/oligopoly positions? Yes, there are many examples.

[whybother]

Many Bangkok based middle class Thais maintain the Reds only attend rallies because they are paid to do so.The same people often tend to say rural voters vote (except of course in the South since there they tend to vote the "right way) as they are instructed and paid.I have no doubt that payments are made.This is Thailand after all.

However to deny that among the millions of Red Shirt supporters there isn't genuine passion and desire for a better fairer Thailand is an absurd position to take.

Yep ... I'm sure there are a some Red Shirt supporters out of the millions with genuine passion and desire for a better fairer Thailand.

It would be good if they made themselves heard over the other 99%.

[rubl]

So to conclude, about 25,000 UDD and other red-shirts gathered around Democracy Monument. Not clear how many protested in front of the Court at Ratchadapisek Rd. in the morning, probably a bit less, too early for a party.

Not much on what either k. Thaksin said or his 'legal' representative Robert A. No problem, with Thaksin's picture in a heart you're ready for Valentine anyway, red as well

Strangely till now no info at all on the 3,000 red-shirts from Chiang Mai who were supposed to leave from there 7PM on the 12th. Krissana Prombuengram, core leader of Rak Chiang Mai 51 group told us so. What happened?

Edited February 14, 2011 by rubl

[whybother]

So to conclude, about 25,000 UDD and other red-shirts gathered around Democracy Monument. Not clear how many protested in front of the Court at Ratchadapisek Rd. in the morning, probably a bit less, too early for a party.

Not much on what either k. Thaksin said or his 'legal' representative Robert A. No problem, with Thaksin's picture in a heart you're ready for Valentine anyway, red as well

Strangely till now no info at all on the 3,000 red-shirts from Chiang Mai who were supposed to leave from there 7PM on the 12th. Krissana Prombuengram, core leader of Rak Chiang Mai 51 group told us so. What happened?

Where was 25,000 reported?

[jayboy]

It is not about a better fairer Thailand, it is about a 'GIVE ME, GIVE ME'-attitude. It is the same all over the world, perhaps even more so in leftist Europe, where people feel entitled to get money from others that work hard.

Many will have a sharply different view from yourself as to where the GIVE ME GIVE ME attitude can be found in Thailand.

Not really, unless someone is dimwitted.

Perhaps you are talking about people trying to do everything to keep what they make and/or not pay people what might be a fair market-price, in part due to market-collisions or monopoly/oligopoly positions? Yes, there are many examples.

Well that's what I believe as do many of my friends, and whatever else may be said about us we are not dimwitted.Your second sentence frankly doesn't make much sense and I'm a Cambridge economics graduate.

[bulmercke]

If it's true that Abhisit is a total puppet of the military anyway, and that any election can be fixed, why bother with a coup?

The Election Commission at the moment appears to be fairly impartial and diligent about its duties and responsibilities. Also - in the last election the PPP majority over the Democrats was about seventy seats. This is problematic for the Democrats and the military and there is no certainty that the events of last year may have dented this margin.

Despite the imposition of the ISA and the demands of the Royal Thai Police both the Yellows and the Reds will be allowed to protest this year and intensify their respective campaigns to such a scale and intensity when there will undoubtedly be a moment when either one or other of the opposing groups over-steps the boundary and then the army will conveniently move in and stage a coup in the interests of national security.

The excuse will then be that no election can be held at that time or at any other time in the immediate future because of the threat of violent tumult and unrest should an election be held. All very convenient.

The PPP HAD a 70 seat majority over the Democrats. The PTP have lost a few through lost by-elections and a heap through defections.

The PTP boycotted the constitution vote last week ... 100 MPs walked out. I don't see that as being problematic for the Democrats.

The counter's re-set to zero at an election so these recent developments won't count for too much - if anything at all.

[phiphidon]

So to conclude, about 25,000 UDD and other red-shirts gathered around Democracy Monument. Not clear how many protested in front of the Court at Ratchadapisek Rd. in the morning, probably a bit less, too early for a party.

Not much on what either k. Thaksin said or his 'legal' representative Robert A. No problem, with Thaksin's picture in a heart you're ready for Valentine anyway, red as well

Strangely till now no info at all on the 3,000 red-shirts from Chiang Mai who were supposed to leave from there 7PM on the 12th. Krissana Prombuengram, core leader of Rak Chiang Mai 51 group told us so. What happened?

You can read Mr Amsterdams address here http://robertamsterdam.com/thailand/?p=579

[rubl]

You can read Mr Amsterdams address here http://robertamsterdam.com/thailand/?p=579

Much obliged, I should have known to have a look there.

A few quotes, admittedly my selection

It is truly amazing to see that despite all the injustice, the violence, and the slander you have suffered, so many of you still have such faith in the rule of law.

I am honored to work with you to take down a government that finds it easier to kill children, nurses, and journalists than to accept the result of an election.

Firstly, I personally witnessed the horrors in Bangkok last May and was determined to record the carnage. (He probably means PERSONALLY watched videos)

In my work in Russia I have lost friends and seen evildoers go free. And I literally cannot exist in a world where evil goes free.

This is how far I got, strong stomach, but could take no more. Read the rest yourself if you want.

(edit, add from Robert A.: Still, despite the fact that we have clearly established both the jurisdiction of the ICC and the admissibility of the Thai situation, it must be acknowledged that the odds that the case will be taken up by the ICC are low.)

Edited February 14, 2011 by rubl

[hanuman1]

So to conclude, about 25,000 UDD and other red-shirts gathered around Democracy Monument. Not clear how many protested in front of the Court at Ratchadapisek Rd. in the morning, probably a bit less, too early for a party.

Not much on what either k. Thaksin said or his 'legal' representative Robert A. No problem, with Thaksin's picture in a heart you're ready for Valentine anyway, red as well

Strangely till now no info at all on the 3,000 red-shirts from Chiang Mai who were supposed to leave from there 7PM on the 12th. Krissana Prombuengram, core leader of Rak Chiang Mai 51 group told us so. What happened?

You can read Mr Amsterdams address here http://robertamsterdam.com/thailand/?p=579

Thanks for the link.

Although some of it is stomach-churning, e.g.:

It has been the honor of a lifetime to work with you over these past months.

Other parts I don't really have much of a problem with at all, e.g.:

“Reconciliation” requires first and foremost the strengthening of civilian power against the military and the “ammart.” To this end, steps must be taken to: a) Bring the armed forces under civilian control; Enhance/modernize the democratic, representative institutions of the State; and c) Expand avenues for citizen participation in the democratic process;

[rubl]

Still the one question:

Strangely till now no info at all on the 3,000 red-shirts from Chiang Mai who were supposed to leave from there 7PM on the 12th. Krissana Prombuengram, core leader of Rak Chiang Mai 51 group told us so. What happened?

[hanuman1]

Still the one question:

Strangely till now no info at all on the 3,000 red-shirts from Chiang Mai who were supposed to leave from there 7PM on the 12th. Krissana Prombuengram, core leader of Rak Chiang Mai 51 group told us so. What happened?

As 'your man in Chiang Mai', I understand that 6 coachloads went down there, with petrol money coming from some monk or other. Personally, I doubt it was 3,000, but whatever the number I think we can conclude that they went down there, had a demo and went home without any violence (unless I've missed some newspaper report to the contrary).

I don't think it is strange that there's no info - just a case of nothing newsworthy happening. What were you expecting?

Edited February 14, 2011 by hanuman1

[DP25]

You can read Mr Amsterdams address here http://robertamsterdam.com/thailand/?p=579

This dude has some balls to write such pure crap with a straight face

Some countries have even been known to stage a war to divert attention from political scandals. It’s so common they made a movie out of it called wag the dog.

Reminds me of someone's "war" on drugs that murdered thousands of people without trial to divert attention from political scandals

[PeterGriffin]

Not claiming to know a lot about Thai politics or even wanting to get involved, I have to say i am appalled by the stupidity of the replies in this topic. For everybody, even the drunkards among us farang, it is easy to find out that the large majority of the Thai are supporting the red shirts. just ask around randomly. Suggesting it is otherwise is just silly. Secondly I would like to point you all to the fact that it is never a good thing when the military is interfering with governmental responsibilities regularly, even in a corrupt democracy this is still very dangerous... thirdly, politics in general, even more so in a country like Thailand, is very populistic.

[Jingthing]

...

I have to say i am appalled by the stupidity of the replies in this topic. For everybody, even the drunkards among us farang, it is easy to find out that the large majority of the Thai are supporting the red shirts.

...

You're right. It's appalling.

Q+A: Is Thailand gearing up for an election?

WHO WILL LIKELY WIN?

That's hard to predict

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33946250/ns/world_news/

Bangkok Election Shows Government Support Still Strong

In the first test of voter sentiment after May's bloody crackdown on anti-government protesters, Thailand's ruling Democrat Party won a by-election in Bangkok on Sunday.

...

The polling district, Bangkok's Constituency 6, is located where the countryside gives way to the capital's urban sprawl and where many inhabitants are migrants from regions where anti-government sentiment is strong.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2006429,00.html#ixzz1DyWQReib

So where in Thailand do you live (if you live here)?

Edited February 14, 2011 by Jingthing

[Buchholz]

Another Amsterdam-ism:

So long as the international community chooses to ignore the reality in Thailand

It sounds like he's disappointed that his various and persistent smear attempts have fallen on deaf ears by people who are wise to his crap

That's ok though, Bobby, keep trying... and keep billing the financier of the Red Shirts for your time and effort.

[Jingthing]

Thaksins's comical efforts to liken himself to Nelson Mandela and Aung San Suu Kyi have deservedly fallen flat on his terminally square face.

[pogal]

Strange how the escalation of street protests - and violent turmoil - always seems to coincide with the school holidays.

Yup 5555555555555

[hyperdimension]

“Reconciliation” requires first and foremost the strengthening of civilian power against the military and the “ammart.” To this end, steps must be taken to: a) Bring the armed forces under civilian control; Enhance/modernize the democratic, representative institutions of the State; and c) Expand avenues for citizen participation in the democratic process;

In point a) replace "civilian" with "Thaksin's" to get a more accurate picture of their goals.

[hyperdimension]

Not claiming to know a lot about Thai politics

You've discredited yourself. Please go and spend some more time reading widely and come back afterward.

Secondly I would like to point you all to the fact that it is never a good thing when the military is interfering with governmental responsibilities regularly, even in a corrupt democracy this is still very dangerous...

It's just the way it has been historically (see my point above). Just from their name ("The Royal Thai Army") you get an idea of who they are protecting foremost. If Thaksin were to return to power he may want to change this and take as much control of the military as possible, not to uphold the ideologies of "democracy" but more for reasons such as to lower the chance of a coup against him and to ensure that when he tells them to attack, they will.

Do people think life in Thailand will be better and peaceful if the red shirts were to succeed in putting Thaksin and Pheu Thai back into power?

Edited February 15, 2011 by hyperdimension

[whybother]

The counter's re-set to zero at an election so these recent developments won't count for too much - if anything at all.

If the counter is reset to zero, why did you bring up the results at the last election?

[jayboy]

It's just the way it has been historically (see my point above). Just from their name ("The Royal Thai Army") you get an idea of who they are protecting foremost.

There is a huge difference between what is professed and the reality.The true purpose of the Thai army, other than to protect the country against foreign invasion, is to make money for its senior officer corps.

[Emptyset]

Not much on what either k. Thaksin said or his 'legal' representative Robert A. No problem, with Thaksin's picture in a heart you're ready for Valentine anyway, red as well

Thaksin's speech was mainly about how Thais should be nice to Cambodians, because if Thais paid them some respect, Cambodians would really love them back, or something like that. He also said he thought there'd be an election, but not any time soon. He said he hopes for a free and fair election, which will solve a lot of problems and he hopes there won't be any more military interference in politics. He also said changing the election rules is fine by him, as long as there's no cheating. Thida gave a speech about the Octoberists struggle for democracy and various struggles through Thai history. The long term goal for the red shirts, she said, is to overthrow the amartaya, but short term goals change all the time. She said the red shirts main immediate task is to oppose any coup, which is even more important than getting the leaders freed. I don't know what Amsterdam said, I try to ignore him.

[Emptyset]

Curious for my own info - how many really did show up to the heights of both the 2010 UDD and the 2008 PAD protests? Lots of numbers have been banded about.

I've heard there really were a million Red Shirts demonstrating in Bangkok last year (obviously from Red Shirt sources) and I've also heard as few as 60,000 - I'd hazard a guess at 120,000 at its peak.

I think there were well over 100,000 at Suvarnibhumi, but I've heard much smaller and much bigger numbers.

Where does your last figure come from? The most I'd seen estimated before that is 15,000. I find it hard to believe it was anywhere near 100,000.

Most estimates I've seen suggest there was about 150,000 red shirts at their peak and by the end of the protests the number had dwindled to less than 10,000. Chang Noi seems to agree with a BBC correspondent that it was the biggest Thai protest for decades though:

For a start it has been unsettling for many people because it was simply so big. The crowd did not approach the dreamy promise of a million people, but as the sun-baked BBC correspondent breathlessly exclaimed, it was the biggest political gathering in Thailand for over three decades. This was no small feat given the obstructions. It's not so difficult to stage a rally when attendees only have to change their shirt and take a short taxi hop from the office. The logistics are a lot more difficult and expensive when the rally site is hundreds of kilometres away. Provincial governors were ordered to obstruct the movement of people. Police set up countless checkpoints. Pro-Newin elements in the northeast laid on entertainment and issued threats to deter people from leaving for the capital. The media carried reports about money distributed to protesters to move. None carried reports about the money spent to prevent them moving. Despite all these efforts, downtown Bangkok was a sea of red. The 10-kilometre column from Rajdamnoen to Phaholyothin broke records.

http://www.robinlea.com/changnoi2/deference.htm

[Thai at Heart]

The counter's re-set to zero at an election so these recent developments won't count for too much - if anything at all.

If the counter is reset to zero, why did you bring up the results at the last election?

I seem to remember that the army used the phrase "reboot" to explain the coup last time around. I hope we have an election, but it will be bloody interesting to see what happens if PTP wins or cobbles together a coalition. I know who I would "like" to win (for the good and stability of the country), and I think we can all guess who the "establishment" would like to win. Times have moved on some since 2007, but the Dems couldn't pull of a clean win with the playing field left wide open for them, and we all saw the subsequent mess that the country fell into after that. I don't think that the Dems have made any real in roads into the traditionally pro-PTP areas. Maybe they shoud get rid of compulsory voting and the people can choose not to vote at all to register their disappointment with the entire situation. LOL

PTP looks like it is in a mess right now, but TIT after all. I think it will be a lot closer than some of us think.

[hyperdimension]

Thida gave a speech about the Octoberists struggle for democracy and various struggles through Thai history. The long term goal for the red shirts, she said, is to overthrow the amartaya, but short term goals change all the time. She said the red shirts main immediate task is to oppose any coup, which is even more important than getting the leaders freed.

She should have explained how Thaksin and his people fit into these goals.

[whybother]

I seem to remember that the army used the phrase "reboot" to explain the coup last time around. I hope we have an election, but it will be bloody interesting to see what happens if PTP wins or cobbles together a coalition. I know who I would "like" to win (for the good and stability of the country), and I think we can all guess who the "establishment" would like to win. Times have moved on some since 2007, but the Dems couldn't pull of a clean win with the playing field left wide open for them, and we all saw the subsequent mess that the country fell into after that. I don't think that the Dems have made any real in roads into the traditionally pro-PTP areas. Maybe they shoud get rid of compulsory voting and the people can choose not to vote at all to register their disappointment with the entire situation. LOL

PTP looks like it is in a mess right now, but TIT after all. I think it will be a lot closer than some of us think.

The PTP won't "win" (ie get a majority of seats). They didn't last time, and have done worse since then with losses at by-elections and defections.

The Democrats don't need to make any in roads into the pro-PTP areas. There are plenty of other areas where they went close last time that wouldn't take too much to tip them over the line. But they won't get a majority of seats either).

It will ALL come down to who can put together a coalition. The Democrats have it now, but it probably comes down to one man - Newin.

[animatic]

It's just the way it has been historically (see my point above). Just from their name ("The Royal Thai Army") you get an idea of who they are protecting foremost.

There is a huge difference between what is professed and the reality.The true purpose of the Thai army, other than to protect the country against foreign invasion, is to make money for its senior officer corps.

Disagree.

That is their sideline,

because they have the power to use, they make money with it. Simple as that, they can so they do. Same for ANY Thai, it is the national midset in a kow tow beset or besotted society. To say 'the purpose of the army' is to make profits for the leaders of the moment, ignores that rest of the army as a whole.

Edited February 15, 2011 by animatic

[otherstuff1957]

it is easy to find out that the large majority of the Thai are supporting the red shirts. just ask around randomly. Suggesting it is otherwise is just silly.

A large majority? The PTP won less than 40% of the popular vote in the last election. I guess that some of that 'large majority' supports the red shirts but votes for the Democrats.

[jayboy]

It's just the way it has been historically (see my point above). Just from their name ("The Royal Thai Army") you get an idea of who they are protecting foremost.

There is a huge difference between what is professed and the reality.The true purpose of the Thai army, other than to protect the country against foreign invasion, is to make money for its senior officer corps.

Disagree.

That is their sideline,

because they have the power to use, they make money with it. Simple as that, they can so they do. Same for ANY Thai, it is the national midset in a kow tow beset or besotted society. To say 'the purpose of the army' is to make profits for the leaders of the moment, ignores that rest of the army as a whole.

I don't necessarily disagree with this.It depends on the way one looks at it and your concise view is perfectly valid though I am more generous than you in my perception of Thais as a whole.The kowtow factor you mention is vanishing fast, and that is a central theme in the current political instability.Fact remains however that the senior officer corps (Thailand's army is grotesquely over generalled) is consumed by making money on the side.The rhetoric about serving the monarchy, the flag and the country is in many cases a fig leaf to cover greed and corruption.There are of course some first class officers but they tend to have a Serpico experience.