INUNDATION

'No repeat of 2011' flood horror

Chularat Saengpassa,

Chutarat Tipnampa

The Nation

File photo

Key govt water chiefs anxious to allay concerns caused by crises in North

BANGKOK: -- Key figures on the Water and Flood Management Commission are trying their utmost to allay mounting fears the flood season this year, which has caused widespread chaos in many provinces already, will turn into a replay of last year's massive crisis.

"Flooding may hit some areas this year but definitely not on the scale seen in 2011," Royol Chitradon, director of the Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute and a member of a WFMC committee, said yesterday.

"The number of storms will be fewer than that in 2011," he said.

The heart of Sukhothai is already ravaged, while Phichit, Phitsanulok and Ayutthaya are also struggling with flood water.

Science Minister Plodprasob Surassawadee, head of the WFMC, said authorities would try today to plug all holes in the floodwall in Sukhothai that allowed the town centre swamped.

He said the Office of National Water and Flood Management Policy would meet at 1pm today to identify flood-risk zones. "From now on, we must be able to predict floods and prepare resources for prevention and relief operations."

Royol said weather this year was under the influence of El Nino, not La Nina like last year, while waterways had already been dredged and water-retention areas prepared.

"All these factors suggest that even if flooding strikes, it will not be as severe as last year," he said.

In 2011, the country suffered its worst flood in decades, with over 800 people killed, seven industrial estates swamped along with homes of millions in Bangkok and elsewhere.

The Chao Phraya River in Nakhon Sawan was flowing at just 1,829 cubic metres per second, much less than 3,500 at one point last year, he said.

The Bhumibol and Sirikit dams were now discharging less than five million cubic metres per day of water downstream, he said. "Last year, it was 30 to 50 million cubic metres."

Samai Jai-in, an adviser to the WFMC committee on the water situation and allocation, said that at this time last year, both Bhumibol and Sirikit were already brimming.

'Dams can take more'

"But as of now, these two dams will be able to take in 8 billion cubic metres more," he said.

Thailand had not yet faced the full brunt of any storm this year.

"Last year, five storms directly pounded the country," he said.

The Sanba tropical storm, which was forming in the Philippines, would probably head to Taiwan and China rather than Thailand, he said.

"Besides all this, we have a well-integrated water database now. We also have pumps and devices to drain the run-off," he said.

"In the current circumstances, only a storm surge or at least five storms will be able to throw Thailand into a flood crisis of the dimensions it experienced last year."

Royol said continuing flooding in some provinces was mainly the result of unprecedented downpours.

"In low-lying areas, it will take several weeks to expel the water. Because the North is higher, run-off from there can flow down to the low-lying Central region within one week," he said.

Train services to the North resumed last night after repairs were completed on a stretch of tracks that was left hanging in the air when a flash flood washed out a hillside in Lamphun.

-- The Nation 2012-09-12

"The number of storms will be fewer than that in 2011,"

Another unfounded statement

He said the Office of National Water and Flood Management Policy would meet at 1pm today to identify flood-risk zones. "From now on, we must be able to predict floods and prepare resources for prevention and relief operations."

Now that Sukhothai is flooded it can be identified. Top work boys!

"The number of storms will be fewer than that in 2011,"

Another unfounded statement

Must have a hotline to Dr Future... dam_n they make some really stupid statements don't they?

Must have a hotline to Dr Future... dam_n they make some really stupid statements don't they?

And when it floods it is just

the result of unprecedented downpours

Couldn't hurt to stock up on water, beer and canned fish. I will.

800 dead last year.........an incredible figure. They need to keep up the remedial work, that death toll cannot be repeated

Run for the hills.

I don't put much stock in any 'government' statements, especially when they claim to be able to see into the future and make such inane predictions.

What has changed in Thailand in the last few years that it is now so flood prone?

Overbuilding with no consideration as to how, where snd accointing for drainage?

Whole nation has become Mekong Delta.

"The Sanba tropical storm, which was forming in the Philippines, would probably head to Taiwan and China rather than Thailand, he said"

One suggests he talk to Somjai Yensabai, a senior official from the Mineral Resources Department....................."he said, adding that tropical storm Sanba would be close to Thailand in 10 days and would bring heavy downpours to many provinces in the North and Northeast"

These guys really pull this stuff out their bottoms dont they

"Flooding may hit some areas this year but definitely not on the scale seen in 2011," Royol Chitradon, director of the Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute and a member of a WFMC committee, said yesterday.

"The number of storms will be fewer than that in 2011," he said.

So it's nothing to do with the billions of baht that have been spent. It's just that they're lucky that there hasn't been as much rain as last year.

So it appears that Sukhothai and parts of Ayuttaya can't even handle what is considered a low risk years. Beyond that, of course, if they keep all the water in the rivers instead of letting them burst their banks, of course, they will continue down river, to flood somewhere else, so then that will become the next "hotspot".

For all their BS and bluster, they have achieved precisely NOTHING in comparison with what normally happens. It rains, it floods, which one could say is the way it has always been, but to see Sukhothai under water like this isn't very edifying, when it appears that the wall they had newly built simply fell down.

Bearing in mind that last year represented, in many parts, up to your neck in it for 6 weeks, a 50% improvement would represent up to waist for 6 weeks, and a 75% improvement would be up to knees in it for 6 weeks. So, still useless since the damage of being up to your knees in it, is still being up to your knees in it.

"The Sanba tropical storm, which was forming in the Philippines, would probably head to Taiwan and China rather than Thailand, he said"

One suggests he talk to Somjai Yensabai, a senior official from the Mineral Resources Department....................."he said, adding that tropical storm Sanba would be close to Thailand in 10 days and would bring heavy downpours to many provinces in the North and Northeast"

These guys really pull this stuff out their bottoms dont they

Sanba is heading for Japan

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_gis_e.htm

It is quite unlikely that Bhumibol and Sirkit discharged 5 million cubic meters of water over the last one month. At this rate their turbine generators hardly could produce 10% of their rated powers. These two hydroelectric dams supply high proportion of power for Thailand. Probabably greater than 700MW. If it is true that they did this you have to appreciate such effort especially if it was done without any power shortage in Thailand.

I think the discharge 5 million cubic meters per day from these two dams referred to the discharge via sluice gates rather than the discharge for entire dams (Plant + sluice gates). That is nothing wrong doing it this way but just tells the whole story.

1,800 cubic meter per second flows out of Nakhon Sawan is not pretty big although its average flow is 700 cubic meters per second. This is because ordinary 4-7 hours moderate rainfall over moderate size of catchment area can produce such intensity. So have the flood scenario of about 3 X average flow. In our country we have little problem about floods up to 5 X average flow of a river.

Take the easy way blame the weather but never yourselves.

Water is already rising around my house, I dont believe for a second they have this under control.

Lets hope for the best lads thats all we can do and hope that the hands on the water controllers are luckier this time.

I have acquaintances in the Royal Thai Army that have advised me to brace for it.

My in-laws (red shirts) refuse to believe me. Ah well. Their house, not mine...

"The number of storms will be fewer than that in 2011,"

Another unfounded statement

More sound bites from officials that have no clue about their own job much less the weather.

"In the current circumstances, only a storm surge or at least five storms will be able to throw Thailand into a flood crisis of the dimensions it experienced last year."

He shouldn't have said that. Now all will start counting.

BTW if from now five storms are able to get us into a flood crisis again, what will 1, 2, 3, or 4 do?

the last flood we had just under 2 meters of water in the soi, and over 1 meter throughout the house. Everybody in my neighborhood say it's coming again. Yesterday I noticed the wall along the ChaoPraya at Wat Pra Gaeow (sp?) had all new sand bags. They know

Only a fool would disagree with the current Governement being partly responsible for the blame both in 2011 and now, with sadness but a complete lack of surprise, in 2012.

However, all Governements ,both past and present, are equally culpable for the terrible water management and thoughtless destruction of the environment in Thailand over the years.but not of course for natural events outwith their control -such as the unusually high rainfall in 2011.

Remember as well that in 2011 the flooding in Bangkok at least, was exacerbated by the foolish stand-off between the BMA and the Governement, the peak run-off coinciding with very high tides and the poor general understanding of the flood drainage system in the city and its environs.

We had knee high water for almost a month in our street, people I know in Pathum Thani and Bang Yai had it much worse and have had to now either demolish their flood damaged homes or give up and move out to other areas. Hope against hope this doesn't happen again.

They had a year so to raise the walls of the river banks and and still there's flooding???

If the floods hit again, I wonder what excuses these idiot PTP rulers are going to use this time.

So it appears that Sukhothai and parts of Ayuttaya can't even handle what is considered a low risk years. Beyond that, of course, if they keep all the water in the rivers instead of letting them burst their banks, of course, they will continue down river, to flood somewhere else, so then that will become the next "hotspot".

For all their BS and bluster, they have achieved precisely NOTHING in comparison with what normally happens. It rains, it floods, which one could say is the way it has always been, but to see Sukhothai under water like this isn't very edifying, when it appears that the wall they had newly built simply fell down.

Bearing in mind that last year represented, in many parts, up to your neck in it for 6 weeks, a 50% improvement would represent up to waist for 6 weeks, and a 75% improvement would be up to knees in it for 6 weeks. So, still useless since the damage of being up to your knees in it, is still being up to your knees in it.

Ayutthaya is flooded every year!!!

So it appears that Sukhothai and parts of Ayuttaya can't even handle what is considered a low risk years. Beyond that, of course, if they keep all the water in the rivers instead of letting them burst their banks, of course, they will continue down river, to flood somewhere else, so then that will become the next "hotspot".

For all their BS and bluster, they have achieved precisely NOTHING in comparison with what normally happens. It rains, it floods, which one could say is the way it has always been, but to see Sukhothai under water like this isn't very edifying, when it appears that the wall they had newly built simply fell down.

Bearing in mind that last year represented, in many parts, up to your neck in it for 6 weeks, a 50% improvement would represent up to waist for 6 weeks, and a 75% improvement would be up to knees in it for 6 weeks. So, still useless since the damage of being up to your knees in it, is still being up to your knees in it.

Ayutthaya is flooded every year!!!

Thailand Live Tuesday 11th of September #27 with MoS&T Plodprasop

"He went on to say that the reported flood in Ayutthaya Province was not caused by the test run of the drainage system, but the planned water retention for the upcoming rice-growing season."

Obviously a misunderstanding, a breakdown in communication or even more likely people not believing the government saying 'we use your land for water retention'.

If the floods hit again, I wonder what excuses these idiot PTP rulers are going to use this time.

Water

Comforting to learn that Thailand is only five storms away from the 2011 horror, according to the "experts." Is that statistic part of their 100-year-flood plan? Or the every-other-year flood plan?

"In the current circumstances, only a storm surge or at least five storms will be able to throw Thailand into a flood crisis of the dimensions it experienced last year."

He shouldn't have said that. Now all will start counting.

BTW if from now five storms are able to get us into a flood crisis again, what will 1, 2, 3, or 4 do?

Is that 5 days of hard rain, or five troplcal storms?

jb1