Finance Ministry axes economic growth projection from 4% to 2.6%

[webfact]

Finance Ministry axes economic growth projection from 4% to 2.6%
By Digital Content



BANGKOK, March 28 - The Finance Ministry has lowered Thailand's projected economic growth for this year from 4 per cent to 2.6 per cent, according to the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO).

FPO Director Somchai Sujjapongse said gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter which suffered a deficit compared the same period last year will decline further in the second quarter.

The economy will surge back in the final quarter if the new government takes office in the third quarter, otherwise the economy will dip further down, he said.

He said the political situation will be the crucial indicator for Thailand's economy, expressing concern that Thailand's credit rating will be impacted in the next round of assessment late this year to early next year.

He said neither the Election Commission nor the caretaker government is empowered to approve the 2015 budget while it is necessary to stimulate the economy.

Exports will become the only economy-stimulating sector while the public sector will have to speed up disbursement of the Bt350 billion budget to help activate the economy, he said.

Mr Somchai said the state revenues from the value added tax has declined for the last two months with a 2.4 per cent deficit in domestic consumption registered in February.

The declining trend will have an impact on both state revenue and customs tax collections, he said.

Exports of electronics products, electrical appliances and automobiles were satisfactory in accord with the strengthened economies in the US and Europe, while the Chinese economy will expand 7.5 per cent, he said.

Though the agricultural sector has grown, the tourism sector declined for the first time in 27 months with tourist arrivals dipping 8.1 per cent, mainly from China, Malaysia and Japan.

He was optimistic that the cancellation of the state of emergency, after which 50 countries revoked warnings for their citizens, will improve Thailand's tourism.

He said the overall economy has been stable but smaller-sized businesses have encountered operational, employment and financial problems.

The number of small-sized companies which failed to pay their debts for over a month has increased, he said, adding that non-performing loans were at about a 2.5 per cent level. (MCOT online news)


-- TNA 2014-03-28

[londonthai]

and everyday lower:

that from 22.3 http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/712850-bot-lowers-gdp-growth-forecast-yet-again-to-27/

"The Bank of Thailand yesterday once again cut its growth forecast for gross domestic product to 2.7 per cent, down from the 4.8 per cent it predicted last October and 5 per cent earlier."

thank you, suthep, hat means a better exchange rate for currencies

Edited March 28, 2014 by londonthai

[NeverSure]

So, how much rice are they exporting?

[Gunna]

I would read too much from this - similar to

6 times or more

I predict we will pay the rice farmers next week

we will pay back the B20bt loan by 31 May

Or the same ministry in August 2012

The credibility of Thailand’s government suffered a blow this week after Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong admitted he had exaggerated export-growth targets earlier this year to bolster investors’ confidence in the country and branded the exaggeration an acceptable “white lie.”

[Pib]

And the forecast ax will probably fall a couple more times during 2014. Wouldn't surprise me to see a negative figure by the end of 2014...I hope not, but if it occurs I won't be a bit surprised.

[bulekee]

Has the sex tourist trade been factored in to the figures,or because prostition is illegal in Thailand it doesn't show on the GDP.

[Thai at Heart]

The economy will surge back in the final quarter if the new government takes office in the third quarter, otherwise the economy will dip further down, he said.

Well, lets not count our chickens before they hatch on this issue shall we. Why should GDP jump on being given a dictatorial committee? If they act anything like the last coup bunch, and start haranguing foreign investors as nationlists tend to, GDP is likely to plummet.

[Nickymaster]

and everyday lower:

that from 22.3 http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/712850-bot-lowers-gdp-growth-forecast-yet-again-to-27/

"The Bank of Thailand yesterday once again cut its growth forecast for gross domestic product to 2.7 per cent, down from the 4.8 per cent it predicted last October and 5 per cent earlier."

thank you, suthep, hat means a better exchange rate for currencies

So thanks to Suthep Yingluck's team will have no problem selling AND delivering rice in the global market.

Farmers happy (assume they get money when the caretakers have money). Everybody happy!!

Edited March 28, 2014 by Nickymaster

[rreddin]

The economy will surge back in the final quarter if the new government takes office in the third quarter, otherwise the economy will dip further down, he said.

Well, lets not count our chickens before they hatch on this issue shall we. Why should GDP jump on being given a dictatorial committee? If they act anything like the last coup bunch, and start haranguing foreign investors as nationlists tend to, GDP is likely to plummet.

A sensible post for once in stead of the usual diatribe from Suthep's farang cheer leaders. I am, however, not optimiustic that a democratically elected government will take office at any time this year, not if the "Supreme Leader in waiting" gets his way. One thing I am certain of is that those vested interets backing Suthep's will not suffer if the economy continues to contract. As alway, the price will be paid by the ordinary Thai citizen.

[Malone]

So, how much rice are they exporting?

Millions and millions (of milligrams)

[Thai at Heart]

The economy will surge back in the final quarter if the new government takes office in the third quarter, otherwise the economy will dip further down, he said.

Well, lets not count our chickens before they hatch on this issue shall we. Why should GDP jump on being given a dictatorial committee? If they act anything like the last coup bunch, and start haranguing foreign investors as nationlists tend to, GDP is likely to plummet.

A sensible post for once in stead of the usual diatribe from Suthep's farang cheer leaders. I am, however, not optimiustic that a democratically elected government will take office at any time this year, not if the "Supreme Leader in waiting" gets his way. One thing I am certain of is that those vested interets backing Suthep's will not suffer if the economy continues to contract. As alway, the price will be paid by the ordinary Thai citizen.

There is not going to be a democratic government this year. There will be a coup, or Suthep, but not ptp democratically selected.

[brownbear]

After seven years living here I still haven't worked out if Thai ministries are just naturally optimistic, deliberately feeding out misinformation to bolster their own credence and to suck in the less informed investors (or whatever may suit their purpose at the time), or, a mixture of the two.

... well, maybe I have, I just find it difficult to understand how so many people can be so easily duped.