If Scotland votes to leave is the pound doomed?

[Jimbolai]

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God, all of these anti-Scottish remarks have confirmed my YES vote.

Americans and Europeans must vote as well. I vote for Scotland being Scotland. Ireland is next. All of it. They get my vote as well.

[Grindting]

What's the reason Scottish notes are different from English notes, in the first place? Lots of countries use multiple currencies. Close to home Laos uses Kip, Baht, Dong and $ and probably Yuan

The reason that Scottish bank notes are different is that the Scottish (and Irish) banks retained the right to print their own notes when the English banks lost that right and they save the cost of paying the BoE for notes. Bank notes are what their name suggests - promissory notes of a bank. The Scottish notes are obligations of those individual banks not on the central bank and, as such, they are not legal tender. You are not obligated to accept Scottish bank notes, even in Scotland. If it goes independent, Scotland will have to set up its own central bank to issue legal tender bank notes and coins which will cost money. You can't have a country with no legal tender currency.

But they get really offended (and sometimes confused) when you refuse them in change.

My wife and I were travelling to EB for a short weekend, when we checked out of the hotel ready to take the train back the concierge in the Sheraton tried to palm off some Scottish notes and got upset when I asked for English notes in change. the guy said "Scottish pounds, don't worry they're the same". I said fine, but i requested a normal £20 and £10 as I won't be able to spend 'these' this back in london (some shops in central london have signs saying they don't take Scottish notes). He said "NO NO THEY DO TAKE THEM THEY DO ITS EQUAL !" When I said no again he was in a real huff and went and changed them and made me wait. W4nker

When I first arrived I was like "what is this!?" When I got them in change. Feels like fake money

[Acharn]

I'm pretty sure the pound will recover, but the Scots are making a dangerous gamble in sticking with it instead of creating their own currency. They're putting themselves in the same position as Greece, or Spain, or Italy where not having their own currency means they are at the mercy of the European Union, which means Germany controls their economic policy.

[Krataiboy]

Funny - according to the No vote lobby, it was Scotland that was going to tank, not the pound. Just proves there are liars, damned liars and politicians.

[apiwan]

Sod the Scots. Bunch of headbutting nutters.

Let them go their own way.

We will enforce hadrians wall keep those nutters out

[Bernard Flint]

It's about time Scotland will be it's own country, first the English govemment take the oil, then they wanted their water, and they dumb all their nuclear stuff in Scotland, what's next, last week it was Braveheart, some People need to read their history books, Scotland,Wales, and Ireland should be a Celtic nation and forget England, they only have bully country, and nobody likes Westminster, Drive on the Yes vote, and get hid of the union jack flag, said from a Scotish person.

sir

U are right, who wants anybody that hates the english so much,and many jocks/celtic support the IRA, Nuff said

[MJP]

Sod the Scots. Bunch of headbutting nutters.

Let them go their own way.

We will enforce hadrians wall keep those nutters out

Remember Begby in Trainspotting?

[apiwan]

Sod the Scots. Bunch of headbutting nutters.

Let them go their own way.

We will enforce hadrians wall keep those nutters out

Remember Begby in Trainspotting?

Know it well

[samran]

I understood one of the rules for any new country joining the EU was that they had to use the Euro.

By the way the oil is mine just like the pound is yours

as it is for a Welshman or somebody from any part of the UK.as you will find out when you try to steal it the English politician's have been very quiet about it so as

not to drive the majority into Salmonds black hole.

as always the lawyers are rubbing there hands.

The court cases will drag on for years.

We will join NATO (though the weapons of mass destruction

A new country joining the EU, do you mean the new England/Wales/Northern Ireland entity, the Scottish entity or both?

As an Equal partner in the union Scotland would have as much right to be a member as any of the others or are the yes protagonists right and under the current rule Scotland has zilch?

Does this mean the £ will have to be abandoned in England for the Euro?

London to a brick, Scotland will maintain some sort of currency union with the UK and the UK will allow it. Scotland will also be granted express membership to at minimum the EEA, but probably the EU. To do otherwise would be too disruptive for trade and commerce. And that is always what wins. Edited September 9, 2014 by samran

[joecoolfrog]

A no vote , which is still the likely outcome , will see Sterling firm up. Allied with the likely interest rate rise , 55 baht possible again by year end.

A yes vote will dampen things short term but I dont think there will be any kind of Sterling collapse. Possible financial disaster for an independent Scotland though , expect a business and labour drain south .

Edited September 9, 2014 by joecoolfrog

[Globeman]

The problem is that the pound is being sold off and foreign money being put into the safe haven dollar ,thus making the pound v baht go down quite a bit.

...which means you should use your baht to buy pounds now... then after the panic subsides, regardless of the result, the pound will go back up - then change it back into baht.

The economy of the rest of the UK is not going to tank simply because Scotland more directly controls its own political destiny... Except for the fact that the tories will be i forever after, since Scotland used to be instrumental in voting them out.

[peterrabbit]

If Scotland votes YES then the politicians will no longer be in control. The markets will dictate both our futures! Remember the ERM collapse in the John Major government. The resulting flight of capital from all the UK will be a disaster for both countries economies. Salmond is telling the Scots to think with their hearts, like Braveheart screaming 'FREEDOM'! They should be thinking with their heads instead because 'freedom' means future financial slavery to the markets who will exact a crippling cost.

[Globeman]

How can the GBP crash? If all the Scottish Pounds were recalled and destroyed that would mean the GBP is more valuable.

However the Scots want everything their way. They want to keep the Pound and their right of travel and work in Europe etc.

Recalling and destroying the Scottish pounds would not make them more valuable - that would only be so if they were actually backed by something substantial, like a gold standard. The pound will be worth whatever the Forex market decides its worth at any given moment.

Scotland keeping the pound would have little impact, much as the very idea of it might make some Englishmen's blood boil. In fact, you can't prevent another country from using your currency - Panama uses the US dollar... even Laos uses it for more serious transactions. Scotland, if they are serious about independence, would have to establish their own currency or they have little control over their fiscal policy - one of the reasons the UK wisely (or in a bit of blind luck) stayed out of the Euro.

[Eneukman]

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What's the reason Scottish notes are different from English notes, in the first place? Lots of countries use multiple currencies. Close to home Laos uses Kip, Baht, Dong and $ and probably Yuan

The reason that Scottish bank notes are different is that the Scottish (and Irish) banks retained the right to print their own notes when the English banks lost that right and they save the cost of paying the BoE for notes. Bank notes are what their name suggests - promissory notes of a bank. The Scottish notes are obligations of those individual banks not on the central bank and, as such, they are not legal tender. You are not obligated to accept Scottish bank notes, even in Scotland. If it goes independent, Scotland will have to set up its own central bank to issue legal tender bank notes and coins which will cost money. You can't have a country with no legal tender currency.

When I worked in branch banking many years ago (I was transferred to a specialist department 36 years ago where I worked for 25 years), we had to reduce our holding of Bank of England notes as much as possible on a Friday as we were charged interest by the Bank of England for all their notes that we held.

Should Scotland vote fro independence (a big mistake in my opinion), it will be necessary for Scotland to continue to use sterling at least to begin with. If they join the Euro, they will be obliged to adopt that currency, which could be a major pain the back side for me as most of my investments are quoted in sterling with the very distinct possibility that those that do have their head office in Scotland may relocate south of the border.

Alan

[paddyjenkins]

Paul Krugman wrote about the referendum in the New York Times, he a Nobel prize winning economist. He points out the huge risk Scotland will be taking in going it alone. Scotland won't be the equivalent of Canada, it will be more like Spain without the sunshine, a bankrupt country with 40% unemployment. Perhaps Argentina will be a better analogy. He finds it mind boggling that Scots would be going for this and doubts the majority understand the risks. I totally agree. Of course in the short term the GBP will be volatile, but my guess is the UK will come out a lot stronger over time and the pound will recover. I am shorting the pound, but only as a trade, to make it a bit of money as I watch it plunge. But long term, if Scotland wishes to go it alone, have no currency of their own, default on their debt, be cut out from doing business with their biggest trading counterpart by far, become estranged from their partner of 300 years, lose their subsidies, lose their disproportionate political say, then up to them. They will have forever to regret as there will be no going back. To do this so soon after the financial crisis, when forces such as China, Russia and Islamic extremism are such huge threats, when we all need union and strength in numbers, really is mind bogglingly stupid.

Edited September 9, 2014 by paddyjenkins

[sawadee1947]

...who needs the POUND really? We in Ireland are happy without and love our independence. Congrats to the Scottish !

[CaptHaddock]

Paul Krugman wrote about the referendum in the New York Times, he a Nobel prize winning economist. He points out the huge risk Scotland will be taking in going it alone. Scotland won't be the equivalent of Canada, it will be more like Spain without the sunshine, a bankrupt country with 40% unemployment. Perhaps Argentina will be a better analogy. He finds it mind boggling that Scots would be going for this and doubts the majority understand the risks. I totally agree. Of course in the short term the GBP will be volatile, but my guess is the UK will come out a lot stronger over time and the pound will recover. I am shorting the pound, but only as a trade, to make it a bit of money as I watch it plunge. But long term, if Scotland wishes to go it alone, have no currency of their own, default on their debt, be cut out from doing business with their biggest trading counterpart by far, become estranged from their partner of 300 years, lose their subsidies, lose their disproportionate political say, then up to them. They will have forever to regret as there will be no going back. To do this so soon after the financial crisis, when forces such as China, Russia and Islamic extremism are such huge threats, when we all need union and strength in numbers, really is mind bogglingly stupid.

You misrepresent Krugman's point. The only point of Scottish independence on which he takes issue is continuing to use the GBP, which he thinks would be a big mistake. However, in the event that the Scots do vote "Yes" they could break the tie to the GBP at a later date, just as Greece could exit the Euro at any time.

[paddyjenkins]

Paul Krugman wrote about the referendum in the New York Times, he a Nobel prize winning economist. He points out the huge risk Scotland will be taking in going it alone. Scotland won't be the equivalent of Canada, it will be more like Spain without the sunshine, a bankrupt country with 40% unemployment. Perhaps Argentina will be a better analogy. He finds it mind boggling that Scots would be going for this and doubts the majority understand the risks. I totally agree. Of course in the short term the GBP will be volatile, but my guess is the UK will come out a lot stronger over time and the pound will recover. I am shorting the pound, but only as a trade, to make it a bit of money as I watch it plunge. But long term, if Scotland wishes to go it alone, have no currency of their own, default on their debt, be cut out from doing business with their biggest trading counterpart by far, become estranged from their partner of 300 years, lose their subsidies, lose their disproportionate political say, then up to them. They will have forever to regret as there will be no going back. To do this so soon after the financial crisis, when forces such as China, Russia and Islamic extremism are such huge threats, when we all need union and strength in numbers, really is mind bogglingly stupid.

You misrepresent Krugman's point. The only point of Scottish independence on which he takes issue is continuing to use the GBP, which he thinks would be a big mistake. However, in the event that the Scots do vote "Yes" they could break the tie to the GBP at a later date, just as Greece could exit the Euro at any time.

I suggest you reread it, he says far more than that.

[joecoolfrog]

Sawadee1947

Some Independence , Eire is a financial basket case and a slave of Brussels ! How many graduates left the country last year to find employment in the UK or elsewhere ?

[paddyjenkins]

...who needs the POUND really? We in Ireland are happy without and love our independence. Congrats to the Scottish !

Banknotes issued by northern Ireland are denominated in pounds sterling...talk about thick.,.this guy doesn't even know what currency his own country has. As for Southern Ireland, it's in the euro, I doesn't have it's own currency, it has the euro. LOL. Edited September 9, 2014 by paddyjenkins

[sawadee1947]

...who needs the POUND really? We in Ireland are happy without and love our independence. Congrats to the Scottish !

Banknotes issued by northern Ireland are denominated in pounds sterling...talk about thick.,.this guy doesn't even know what currency his own country has. As for Southern Ireland, it's in the euro, I doesn't have it's own currency, it has the euro. LOL.

Do your home work, man! There is NO SOUTHERN IRELAND !!!....But Ireland as a REPUBLIC. And we are indeed happy to have the EURO. Please YOU stay away from my country please. Simple minds are prohibited...!

[tonika]

Re post paddyjenkis

Fully agree 100% with the economist. I too, doubt that the majority of Scots really understand the financial implications of voting for Independence. When I read some of the comments by fellow Scots on this forum, I can only shake my head. I only hope the majority of Scots have the sense to vote NO, as Salmond, and his cohorts, haven't got a clue.

Regarding the above comment about Ireland, 'being happy, and love our Independence'. Independence, most of your laws come from Brussles. Wasn't it only a a couple of years ago Ireland had to go cap in hand for a bailout to the EU. And, as far as I'm aware you haven't paid it back fully, yet. Yes, just what we in Scotland need.

[sawadee1947]

Sawadee1947

Some Independence , Eire is a financial basket case and a slave of Brussels ! How many graduates left the country last year to find employment in the UK or elsewhere ?

Leaving Ireland? Well, within the financial credit crunch time almost every EU country had to suffer.. Spanish, Italians left their countries just to find employments in other states willing to learn their language. But in better times as already this year in Ireland with improving economy graduates came back or did not leave anyway. (by the way graduates left the UK as well)

[Friendly Stranger]

I understood one of the rules for any new country joining the EU was that they had to use the Euro.

By the way the oil is mine just like the pound is yours

as it is for a Welshman or somebody from any part of the UK.as you will find out when you try to steal it the English politician's have been very quiet about it so as

not to drive the majority into Salmonds black hole.

as always the lawyers are rubbing there hands.

The court cases will drag on for years.

We will join NATO (though the weapons of mass destruction

True. But wouldn't that take awhile? I presume they would keep the pound until this is finalized and Euro acceptance us granted. Edited September 9, 2014 by Friendly Stranger

[paddyjenkins]

Re post paddyjenkis

Fully agree 100% with the economist. I too, doubt that the majority of Scots really understand the financial implications of voting for Independence. When I read some of the comments by fellow Scots on this forum, I can only shake my head. I only hope the majority of Scots have the sense to vote NO, as Salmond, and his cohorts, haven't got a clue.

Regarding the above comment about Ireland, 'being happy, and love our Independence'. Independence, most of your laws come from Brussles. Wasn't it only a a couple of years ago Ireland had to go cap in hand for a bailout to the EU. And, as far as I'm aware you haven't paid it back fully, yet. Yes, just what we in Scotland need.

Re your comments about independence, it's incredible that these posters seem not to know their own currency, where their laws come from....or anything maybe apart from what the bottom of a beer glass looks like

Edited September 9, 2014 by paddyjenkins

[NoshowJones]

I do believe that if the Scots decide to go it alone they will be in deep poo in the years to come ,Salmond is in this for himself ,he has no masterplan ,if you really look at what he is saying ,to be blunt its lies and hopes that other countrys will fall into line with what he says ,its not going to happen ,but what is true is that it will be bad for everyone ,there will be no winners ,except him and those who are rich and it doesnt matter a jot what happens when your rich

Do I have to say this again? A yes vote does not necessary mean a vote for Salmond, or the SNP, there will be 16 months before Scotland becomes fully independent, which will give the Scots time to decide who they want to run the country.

[IMA_FARANG]

In the last few days the GBP is losing value against many currencies.

But that doesn't really mean anything, it is all speculation based on fear of what will happen.

If the politicians don't involved with their stupidity for political gains it could be a disaster, but probably not if they stay calm and use reason instead of hysteria then t could actually benefit the independent Scotland and U.K. joint currency connection.

Merely having two countries with a joint currency is NOT a disaster. But it can be if not used wisely.

The Faroe Islands is a semi-independent part of Denmark.

The Faroe Islands and Denmark both use the Danish Kroner, it comes in a Faroese version and a Danish version.

They can be exchanged in Banks in both areas on a one to one basis.

So, such a thing is possible ..... if common sense and not hysteria guides the two sides.

As said, the result of two areas with one common currency depends all the politicians in both areas.

As an example of "getting it wrong", consider when East Germany and West Germany were united into one country.

For political reasons the East German currency and the West German currency were set to a 1 to 1 exchange ratio,

This actually left the West German economy handicapped with East German debts at a insane exchange ratio, and saddled the West with debts incurred by East Germany that the West had to repay for many years.

All done for "political" reasons.

What will happen with the GBP and the Scots "Pound" after independence is a tossup .... depending on how the currencies are handled.

By the way ..... from what I am just watching on CNN, the yes vote is now estimated at 39%, the no vote at 38%, and the "undecided" fraction the rest of the voters. (23 percent).

So, I would say that the result of the referendum is very much with those "undecided" voters at this time.

Edited September 9, 2014 by IMA_FARANG

[paddyjenkins]

...who needs the POUND really? We in Ireland are happy without and love our independence. Congrats to the Scottish !

Banknotes issued by northern Ireland are denominated in pounds sterling...talk about thick.,.this guy doesn't even know what currency his own country has. As for Southern Ireland, it's in the euro, I doesn't have it's own currency, it has the euro. LOL.

Do your home work, man! There is NO SOUTHERN IRELAND !!!....But Ireland as a REPUBLIC. And we are indeed happy to have the EURO. Please YOU stay away from my country please. Simple minds are prohibited...!

Bit of education for you....Southern Ireland is the formerly used name of the republic, and still sometimes used to distinguish the region geographically from the so called north.

[fletchsmile]

I'm still sticking with my view that whether or not the Scottish vote to breakaway from England, after the vote is over the English should be allowed a vote as to whether they want to keep the Scottish

Cheers

Fletch

That's really quite odd thinking Fletch.

Maybe it would be acceptable if Britain allowed that policy when it was on the winning side.

So Spain gets to Vote on whether they get Gibraltar back.

Argentina gets to vote if it gets Falklands or not. etc etc

it's not odd thinking. it's called irony

Indeed Naam

Oxo I'd say it's your thinking thats odd and your logic that s flawed in addition to missing the irony. Scotland are voting whether they want to be part of a union with the English. So you can flip that round. Do the English want the Scots?

Gibraltar are part of a union with the British as are the Falklands. So by all means ask both sides to vote whether they still wish to be part of a union with each other

You re introducing Argentina and Spain as 3rd parties.

That's like asking the German's do they want Schottland

Come to think of it not a bad idea

Cheers

Fletch

[sawadee1947]

Re post paddyjenkis

Fully agree 100% with the economist. I too, doubt that the majority of Scots really understand the financial implications of voting for Independence. When I read some of the comments by fellow Scots on this forum, I can only shake my head. I only hope the majority of Scots have the sense to vote NO, as Salmond, and his cohorts, haven't got a clue.

Regarding the above comment about Ireland, 'being happy, and love our Independence'. Independence, most of your laws come from Brussles. Wasn't it only a a couple of years ago Ireland had to go cap in hand for a bailout to the EU. And, as far as I'm aware you haven't paid it back fully, yet. Yes, just what we in Scotland need.

Brussels has never been an "enemy". Not any evil came from there. Much more was home made. All decisions have to be accepted by all member states. But if you can't agree with consense...

That you Poms might leave the EU...why not. We don't need you. You were always a problem for a sustainable future of EU. Scotland should use their rights of independance and join the Euro club with all advantages and obligations. Be proud Scots! Don't follow that isolated Cameron, who is not taken seriously in EU