AirAsia flight QZ8501 from Indonesia to Singapore missing

[jpinx]

Report of a successful emergency landing

http://news.detik.com/read/2014/12/28/144850/2788359/10/keluarga-penumpang-dapat-bbm-pesawat-airasia-selamat-di-belitung-timur

translation by google....

Surabaya - ray of hope appeared. One of the families who lost contact AirAsia slightly relieved. A message from his preaching if all passengers survived.

"Reportedly emergency landing in East Belitung, all survived. But we still need a certainty," said Intan of Ntt Djomy Martinus family.

Her sister to Singapore with his wife, a son and a baby sitter.
Diamonds are admitted on vacation to Surabaya received the news of his friend through BBM.

Information has also been submitted to the authorities in a crisis center Juanda Airport. But is it true that fuel the news? Until now there has been no confirmation from the relevant authorities.

Edited December 28, 2014 by jpinx

[rayw]

The anvil shape at the top of a thunderstorm is an indication the storm is dying. The strong up and downdrafts that cause the mushroom shape are relenting. It's still incredibly dangerous to get near it.

Actually not true. For the record the anvil shape is the formation of ice crystals spreading out in the thinner colder air at the greater altitude, as I remember my physics I believe it is when it breaks through the tropopause. Normally as you climb higher the air gets progressively colder as the pressure drops though when you break through that tropopause layer the air will initially get warmer (though still very very cold up there of course) and this temperature inversion as it is called is what forms this tropopause layer. Once the powerful rising storm cell air column breaks through this layer with such force behind it and from below, then it will with such momentum of course rise rapidly and super freezes to form the ice crystals spreading out and thus forming the anvil shape we see. It takes a lot of upward force for the rising air to break through a strong tropopause layer and thus it cannot be an indication of the storm dying at all but clearly an indication of how strong and well established the storm most probably still is.

The mushroom appearance of CB clouds is in the lower area before the tropopause as once that billowing mushroom looking cloud breaks through only then does the familiar anvil shape referred to above appear. Whereas a dying storm cell is indicated by the ragged appearance of the clouds no longer being fed by the updraught of warmer moist air from below. Anyhow that is as I remember it from my much loved physics lessons years ago and also my later interest led study of meteorology, still in my younger days.

Anyway now lets get fully back on this sad news topic, and what of course really matters. As a very caring Atheist (not that it matters right now but yes caring is not the exclusive domain of religious folk you know and in my experience it is often a more prevalent trait with Atheists actually!!), I want to add that I am feeling very tearful and deeply saddened by this terrible incident. My thoughts and feelings go out to all the families and friends of these innocent folk who currently appear to have lost their lives so suddenly today in this tragedy. RIP to the poor victims, but let us still hang on to a slim hope that they all survived somehow, or at the very least that some of them may have. A very deeply sad day indeed.

We must of course all wait to hear the true cause, but I endorse what others here have said here in that the huge thunderstorm in the area seems pretty sure to be the primary or only cause of this terrible disaster.

That's interesting. Of all of the ground school I had I was always taught different. Not that it matters because I'd steer far clear of it. But I just looked it up and you're right.

Thanks for that confirmation as being so long ago as I implied I was not 100% sure but shows a big good character for you to admit what was anyway an easy error. I also liked your factual post about instrumentation with the lack of the normal avionics being available. I understand that to be true from my limited hobby led knowledge of aviation and time spent a few years ago with a fairly accurate PC based flight sim, and indeed gliding pilot theory and practical gliding instruction many more years ago.

Anyway of course none of that is important, nor does it help find the actual answer to what did happen here today, or indeed take away the terrible sadness and shock we are all feeling right now.

Edited December 28, 2014 by rayw

[dirtycash]

ok no search and rescue sightings as yet even though its daylight . did pilot take plane off course ? who was pilot ? not conspiracy theorist but why has plane not been found yet ? i dont think this was an accident.

prayers to families and to all onboard.

just watching news, seems there was thunderstorm in area and pilot diverted so i take my original post back.

Edited December 28, 2014 by dirtycash

[Ve37]

ok no search and rescue sightings as yet even though its daylight . did pilot take plane off course ? who was pilot ? not conspiracy theorist but why has plane not been found yet ? i dont think this was an accident.

prayers to families and to all onboard.

This response time is just unacceptable,...a 162 people,...perhaps floating in the sea more than 7 hours after this incident. It will be dark in 2 hours.

[draftvader]

Report of a successful emergency landing

translation by google....

Surabaya - ray of hope appeared. One of the families who lost contact AirAsia slightly relieved. A message from his preaching if all passengers survived.

"Reportedly emergency landing in East Belitung, all survived. But we still need a certainty," said Intan of Ntt Djomy Martinus family.

Her sister to Singapore with his wife, a son and a baby sitter.

Diamonds are admitted on vacation to Surabaya received the news of his friend through BBM.

Information has also been submitted to the authorities in a crisis center Juanda Airport. But is it true that fuel the news? Until now there has been no confirmation from the relevant authorities.

Unfortunately this looks incredibly unlikely. There is only 1 airport on that island and it is clearly in the West. I hope I'm wrong :/

Edited December 28, 2014 by draftvader

[draftvader]

ok no search and rescue sightings as yet even though its daylight . did pilot take plane off course ? who was pilot ? not conspiracy theorist but why has plane not been found yet ? i dont think this was an accident.

prayers to families and to all onboard.

You don't think it was an accident? Seriously? With all the indicators pointing to an accident you think it wasn't? Remind me not to take you to the betting shop with me.

[kannot]

Not sure if this has been posted yet

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/reports-of-plane-crash-in-belitung-timur-says-indonesian-portal

[smedly]

In the midst of all the technical posts here, let us not forget, that 162 human beings have probably lost their lives!!

I don't think anyone here needs a reminder, I believe we are all trying to convince ourselves that this plane had a successful landing in the sea or otherwise and most if not all the passengers are safe, there is always hope until informed otherwise

[balo]

The pilot probably tried to outclimb the thunderstorm. This thunderstorm must have been huge, maybe it was the ATC or the pilot that misjudged the situation but most likely it was the weather this time. A small plane like A320 can survive even the worst weather conditions but not this time I'm afraid.

And unbelievable that Malaysia has been hit again, this could have happened to anyone.

Edited December 28, 2014 by balo

[bkkjames]

The pilot probably tried to outclimb the thunderstorm. This thunderstorm must have been huge, maybe it was the ATC or the pilot that misjudged the situation but most likely it was the weather this time. A small plane like A320 can survive even the worst weather conditions but not this time I'm afraid.

And unbelievable that Malaysia has been hit again, this could have happened to anyone.

other than the fact that air asia has its roots in malaysia, this is hardly a malaysian tragedy - more like indonesian.

[forgetit]

The Link to the Aviation Herald post http://avherald.com/h?article=47f6abc7&opt=0

Very good source for all information.

[jpinx]

Report of a successful emergency landing

translation by google....

Surabaya - ray of hope appeared. One of the families who lost contact AirAsia slightly relieved. A message from his preaching if all passengers survived.

"Reportedly emergency landing in East Belitung, all survived. But we still need a certainty," said Intan of Ntt Djomy Martinus family.

Her sister to Singapore with his wife, a son and a baby sitter.

Diamonds are admitted on vacation to Surabaya received the news of his friend through BBM.

Information has also been submitted to the authorities in a crisis center Juanda Airport. But is it true that fuel the news? Until now there has been no confirmation from the relevant authorities.

Unfortunately this looks incredibly unlikely. There is only 1 airport on that island and it is clearly in the West. I hope I'm wrong :/

Agreed - but the message did not say it crash-landed at an airport,,,,,,,,,,,,

[george]

QZ8501: Indonesia denies flight crashed east of Belitung Islands

KUALA LUMPUR: Indonesian government has denied that AirAsia flight QZ8501 had crashed east of Belitung Islands in the Jawa Sea.

Indonesia's air transportation director general, Djoko Murjatmodjo said the agency has yet to receive any information surrounding the missing flight which had gone missing after the plane departed from Surabaya's Juanda International Airport at 5:20am (local time).

AirAsia flight QZ8501 was supposed to arrive in Singapore at 8:30am.

Djoko also stressed that search operations are underway.

"We will soon depart to monitor the signs around the location of the missing flight," said Djoko.

Several media portals had earlier reported of an aircraft which had crashed at Belitung Islands.


Source: http://english.astroawani.com/news/show/qz8501-indonesia-denies-flight-crashed-east-belitung-islands-51089?cp

[george]

Per The Age's Indonesian correspondent Michael Bachelard, two Singaporean Hercules' have been cleared to travel to the search site, an Indonesian helicopter took off from Jakarta at 1500 MT with an expected flight time of 3 hours, and there are preparations to allow Australian aircraft to also fly to assist the search.

A rescue ship was dispatched at 0800 local, and it is expected it will take 10 hours to reach the search location - so should arrive within the next 2 hours.

He also says relatives of those on board have told authorities they have been trying to call the mobile phones of passengers, but have had no success.

Jakarta deployed 7 ships to aid the operation.

[sandyf]

In the midst of all the technical posts here, let us not forget, that 162 human beings have probably lost their lives!!

I don't think anyone here needs a reminder, I believe we are all trying to convince ourselves that this plane had a successful landing in the sea or otherwise and most if not all the passengers are safe, there is always hope until informed otherwise

I find it a bit strange that no one has mentioned mobile phones.

PS. Someone just has.

Edited December 28, 2014 by sandyf

[draftvader]

Report of a successful emergency landing

translation by google....

Surabaya - ray of hope appeared. One of the families who lost contact AirAsia slightly relieved. A message from his preaching if all passengers survived.

"Reportedly emergency landing in East Belitung, all survived. But we still need a certainty," said Intan of Ntt Djomy Martinus family.

Her sister to Singapore with his wife, a son and a baby sitter.

Diamonds are admitted on vacation to Surabaya received the news of his friend through BBM.

Information has also been submitted to the authorities in a crisis center Juanda Airport. But is it true that fuel the news? Until now there has been no confirmation from the relevant authorities.

Unfortunately this looks incredibly unlikely. There is only 1 airport on that island and it is clearly in the West. I hope I'm wrong :/

Agreed - but the message did not say it crash-landed at an airport,,,,,,,,,,,,

Fair point. Must also say that being that East Belitung is quite heavily populated that I think more information might have come through after 5 hours+

[forgetit]

If you want to see all airports in the vicinity of the flight route go here: http://skyvector.com/?ll=-2.745721,107.754917&chart=301&zoom=3

[Scully]

Air Asia QZ8501: Loud bang 'heard' by fishermen over Belitung Island

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/air-asia-qz8501-loud-bang-heard-by-fishermen-over-belitung-island-1481094

[bkkjames]

https://twitter.com/GerryS/status/549075001173766144/photo/1

leaked photo of atc screen showing flight climbing above 36000 ft at only 353 knots

Edited December 28, 2014 by bkkjames

[george]

On my way to Surabaya where most of the passengers are from, as with my Indonesian management. Providing information as we get it. /@tonyfernandes

[MaxYakov]

I always assumed that avoiding clouds - storms - turbulence etc was for passenger comfort as opposed to a threat to the aircraft, not saying they are indestructible but I honestly believed it would take something in the extreme (tornado) to actually down one of these modern aircraft, maybe I'm wrong

History tells us that most if not all air accidents are caused by either pilot error - mechanical failure - or maintenance error, all of which point at a human in the chain, ok we have the odd situation of birds entering both engines or similar

NOAA 6/2002 - Study of Weather-Related Fatal Aviation Accidents

Abstract

This study is a statistical summary of all fatal aircraft accidents that occurred in the United States (including Alaska and Hawaii) and coastal waters which involved general aviation and small commuter aviation aircraft from 1995-2000. These data summarize fatal accidents in which the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) cited weather to be a cause or contributing factor. From 1995 to 2000, 4018 people died in aircraft accidents; of which weather related accidents accounted for 1,380 deaths. Essentially, the NTSB cited weather as a factor in 3 of every 10 fatal aircraft accidents during this period.

The National Weather Service Vision states a need to strive to eliminate weather-related fatalities." The NWS theme for 2002 is "Working Together to Save Lives." The yearly average for weather-related fatalities in general aviation (230) is comparable to the combined fatalities due to lightning, tornadoes and floods (213). Results of this study will provide a statistical data base that justifies an expanded outreach program. This program will be targeted to the general aviation community.

Since this report is over 12 years old and uses only NTSB data (not world-wide), it does not include AF447 and many other weather-related aviation accidents.

Edited December 28, 2014 by MaxYakov

[george]

CNN keeps showing pictures of an Airbus A330 and saying "this is an Airbus A320" #fail

[george]

According to Airbus, since the missing A320 was delivered in late 2008 it has flown around 13,600 flight hours.

[Lite Beer]

RT @ChannelNewsAsia: Malaysian Transport Minister @liowtionglai dismisses claims that #QZ8501 has been found http://cna.asia/qz8501updates

[bkkjames]

anyone else starting to think de ja vu, it's been 7hours now has it? Still hoping for the best but realistically speaking, it's a minor hope at this point.

[Fritzz]

It's one of their oldest but still only 6.3 years old.

This probably has less to do with age of aircraft rather than choice of route and flight level. By looking at the radar charts published it seems only limited choices were available as thunderstorms were massive in lateral as well as vertical coverage of the intended flight track. The crew must have chosen an easterly diversion as one of the last reports puts them somewhere close to the sparsely populated south western Kalimantan coastal area. Perhaps not far enough. Neither in height nor far enough east. It would have taken a real s.o.b. old (=experienced) Capt to have decided to return to base, i.e. Surabaya or divert to e.g. Bandar Seri Begawan for fuel and WX improvement. By publishing the Capt's flying hours the airline indicates that it might feel the experience of the crew might have something to do with the present situation.

It saddens me to have to come to the conclusion that total loss is a distinct possibility here.

[george]

The Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore has released the following statement:

Indonesia Accepts Singapore’s Offer to Assist in Search and Locate Efforts

28 December 2014, 4:00pm (local time): Indonesia has accepted Singapore’s offer to assist in the search and locate efforts of the missing Indonesia AirAsia aircraft QZ8501.

The Singapore Rescue Coordination Centre (RCC), managed by the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) and supported by various agencies, including the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) and the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN), had offered assistance to BASARNAS, the Indonesian Search and Rescue Agency, at 9:30am (local time), this morning.

We have offered our planes and ships to assist in the search and received confirmation from the Indonesian authorities this afternoon at 2:30pm (local time) to accept our offer, requesting one C130 for now.

We have already launched it to assist with the search and locate efforts.

The Indonesia AirAsia flight went missing this morning, more than 200 nautical miles southeast of the Singapore-Jakarta Flight Information Region boundary.

Further updates will be provided once more information is available.

[george]

Also, apparently there weren't seven but six crew members on board QZ8501, says Joko Muryo Atmodjo, air transportation director at the Indonesian Transport Ministry. That makes the overall number of people on the plane 161, not 162, as previously believed. /@Indonesian Transport Ministry

[MrWorldwide]

anyone else starting to think de ja vu, it's been 7hours now has it? Still hoping for the best but realistically speaking, it's a minor hope at this point.

It might look like a short distance from the coast of Java, but they still have to mobilise ships and get sufficient confirmation from the air that the 'wreckage' in question could be from the missing aircraft. The Indonesians havent shown themselves to be the world's best at dealing with aviation disasters, sadly, but they really made a meal of this incident:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garuda_Indonesia_Flight_200

Let's hope for a better readiness level in this case.

[Maestro]

I see conflicting information given by two Indonesian officials about the last communication from the aircraft to air traffic control.

1. Joko Muryo Atmodjo, air transportation director at the Transport Ministry, told a news conference on Sunday that the plane had been flying at 32,000 feet and had asked to fly at 38,000 feet to avoid clouds.
   
2. "At 6.12 am, the pilot asked Jakarta tower to be allowed to move up to 38,000 feet from 32,000 feet and to fly around a bad cloud. The tower lost contact at 6.17am," Murjatmodjo told a media briefing at Indonesia's main international airport, the Soekarno-Hatta, outside Jakarta.

Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/airasia-indonesia-flight-qz8501-pilot-asked-fly-higher-altitude-avoi#sthash.WTJeLBcM.JF1Ydm62.dpuf

The first information quoted above suggests that the pilot only asked to change altitude. The second suggests that he asked to change altitude and to change direction. Perhaps Murjatmodjo also meant to say that the pilot asked to change altitude to avoid the clouds, ie fly above them. I guess one can fly around a cloud also on a vertically -- not doing a full circle, of course -- not just horizontally.