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Patong is dead.


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47 minutes ago, xylophone said:

Well when the biggest supermarket and food and beverage chain here are feeling the pinch, then add in four restaurateurs I know (plus those that have closed) and guest houses/small hotels NOT to mention 10 bar owners, then the spectrum is pretty well covered.

 

Easy to smugly suggest that they didn't do their homework or they should be prepared to meet the changes, but that is not the case. Some changes just cannot be catered for easily and when you own a restaurant or a small hotel perhaps you would advise them how they can turn a profit by selling trinkets or the like?

 

Anyway you make too many assumptions in your post which renders it just about useless.

Please tell me where I have " made too many assumptions "

3 hours ago, phuketjock said:

I am sorry xylo if you have so many friends that got it wrong and are struggling because of it.

There are many in Patong who did there homework and have got it right albiet they are not

making a fortune but they are far from struggling.

Things change and if you are not prepared to meet these changes then maybe they shouldn't

have gone into their venture so unprepared. Constantly bleating on about it is not going to make

it any better is it?

 

I said I was sorry that so many of your friends are struggling,

and unlike you I know many people who are not struggling.

I said things change.

And lets face it you and BD and NKM are never done bleating about it are you?

Where are the assumptions.

The people who are not struggling were able to meet the changes easily or

otherwise so please don't say it can't be done.

There is nothing smug about what I am saying get off your high horse some

people can get it right and some cannot just a fact of life, live with it or make

a change up to you/them.

I must say I had to double take when I saw BAR owners are you serious who in

their right mind would invest their money in a bar seriously and you sympathise 

and 10 of them no surprise there then.

 

Edited by phuketjock
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4 minutes ago, simon43 said:

Phuketjock said:

 

 

 

 

With respect, you didn't answer my questions:

 

"So why would an Asian tourist want to return to Phuket for a second holiday?  What is there on offer that would tempt a second visit?"

I don't know why they would Simon but I know they do, I can't read their minds mate.

I can only suggest that they come back for more of what they came for in the first place.

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Just thought I'd step in with my, what I like to believe, objective views:

 

PJ said:

"I don't know why they would Simon but I know they do, I can't read their minds mate.

I can only suggest that they come back for more of what they came for in the first place."

 

The words nail and head spring to mind.

They come back for the same reasons non-Asians come back, of course... and I don't have to rely on reading minds either as I make a point, for my own reasons, of asking our customers from where they come. Generally the response from those [Asians] who speak perfect English is that they are Malaysian or Singaporean and they've been to Phuket many times previously as it's a great short break destination because of proximity and price.

 

With respect to businesses finding the current climate somewhat challenging, what I'm feeling from this thread is some perception of entitlement.

There are very few guarantees in life and even fewer with respect to future business success, no matter how successful any business has been in the past. This the reality. Those now finding themselves in this situation have to look at matters objectively with possibly having to make difficult decisions.

 

Speaking for our business, following 14 years of year on year increase in annual turnover and profit made on the back of implementing changes to the business to adapt to changing markets, this has been the first year of flat-lining. I'm unconcerned as we have worked to build up a sufficiently high, sustained profit margin which, even if we were to suffer a huge fall in profits, wouldn't mean the death of our business or even close to struggling.

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31 minutes ago, prophet01 said:

Just thought I'd step in with my, what I like to believe, objective views:

 

PJ said:

"I don't know why they would Simon but I know they do, I can't read their minds mate.

I can only suggest that they come back for more of what they came for in the first place."

 

The words nail and head spring to mind.

They come back for the same reasons non-Asians come back, of course... and I don't have to rely on reading minds either as I make a point, for my own reasons, of asking our customers from where they come. Generally the response from those [Asians] who speak perfect English is that they are Malaysian or Singaporean and they've been to Phuket many times previously as it's a great short break destination because of proximity and price.

 

With respect to businesses finding the current climate somewhat challenging, what I'm feeling from this thread is some perception of entitlement.

There are very few guarantees in life and even fewer with respect to future business success, no matter how successful any business has been in the past. This the reality. Those now finding themselves in this situation have to look at matters objectively with possibly having to make difficult decisions.

 

Speaking for our business, following 14 years of year on year increase in annual turnover and profit made on the back of implementing changes to the business to adapt to changing markets, this has been the first year of flat-lining. I'm unconcerned as we have worked to build up a sufficiently high, sustained profit margin which, even if we were to suffer a huge fall in profits, wouldn't mean the death of our business or even close to struggling.

With your permission may I add you to my list of local businesses that are not struggling and thank you for your insight into how to get it right.       :wai:

I don't think anyone is having or going to have a highly profitable low season but the high season is

not that far away is it?

Edited by phuketjock
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13 hours ago, prophet01 said:

Just thought I'd step in with my, what I like to believe, objective views:

 

PJ said:

"I don't know why they would Simon but I know they do, I can't read their minds mate.

I can only suggest that they come back for more of what they came for in the first place."

 

The words nail and head spring to mind.

They come back for the same reasons non-Asians come back, of course... and I don't have to rely on reading minds either as I make a point, for my own reasons, of asking our customers from where they come. Generally the response from those [Asians] who speak perfect English is that they are Malaysian or Singaporean and they've been to Phuket many times previously as it's a great short break destination because of proximity and price.

 

With respect to businesses finding the current climate somewhat challenging, what I'm feeling from this thread is some perception of entitlement.

There are very few guarantees in life and even fewer with respect to future business success, no matter how successful any business has been in the past. This the reality. Those now finding themselves in this situation have to look at matters objectively with possibly having to make difficult decisions.

 

Speaking for our business, following 14 years of year on year increase in annual turnover and profit made on the back of implementing changes to the business to adapt to changing markets, this has been the first year of flat-lining. I'm unconcerned as we have worked to build up a sufficiently high, sustained profit margin which, even if we were to suffer a huge fall in profits, wouldn't mean the death of our business or even close to struggling.

 

"what I like to believe" - what you would like to believe and what is real may be two different things.  :smile:

 

"this has been the first year of flat-lining" - so, that shows a big change, does it not? 

 

Let's see, last year had profits, this year flat-lining, and next year????  If next year is a loss, and maybe the year after, for how long do you stay in the game, and more importantly, what have you got to sell should you decide to get, and who are you going to sell it to????

 

There will be many here left holding "the can" if they are not already.

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On 25/05/2017 at 3:33 PM, phuketjock said:

Please post a list of at least three thousand properties that have been on sale for years and

the number of years that they have been on sale for. Or of course a link to same. In PATONG 

of course, as that's what the thread is all about.

What the heck I will make it easy for you just two thousand will be enough.    :cheesy:

 

I've already posted this.

 

Siam Real Estate currently have 1576 properties listed for sale on Phuket, not including land, and yes, Phuket, not Patong.  After 2 years and 100 pages, the "Phuket" property market was discussed.

 

Now, that was only one online real estate agency, there are many.  I conceed that many properties are listed across many sites, and some have been sold, but there are still thousands, yes, thousands, for sale on Phuket, with the value of each property dropping by the day, if it can be sold at all.  

 

Can you anything to show there are not thousands of properties for sale on Phuket?  I didn't think so. 

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On 25/05/2017 at 5:06 PM, xylophone said:

Wouldn't be too smug about your challenge, although I think there was a certain amount of hyperbole in the ops numbers.........but look at the number of apts/condos thrown up here in the last few years: The Art, The Lofts, The Deck, The Charm, Phuket Villas, The Emerald, Bayshore Ocean view, The Scene, Unity and others whose names escape me.

 

Then add in the houses which have been for sale for an age and you have  a huge resale market and a glut of sellers. Not taking sides but resale property prices here are very depressed........as was my friend when he only got 1.55m baht for his 62 sq m 1 bed apt, which he'd been trying to sell for 2 yrs!!!

 

And the house I sold for 5.25 m 6 yrs ago I could have bought back at 60% of that recently............the sad fact is that there is a property glut, glut of sellers and few buyers and real estate agents will tell you that on the quiet (I know a few).

 

So with bars, restaurants and small businesses closing like never before and spend down (and this direct from the owners and managers) and businesses suffering, all of which is plain to see, what is there left to debate........accept the obvious, it's on your doorstep, unless you don't go out much!

 

 

"all of which is plain to see, what is there left to debate........accept the obvious, it's on your doorstep" - but your observations are only your "opinion."  Right?  :cheesy:

 

 

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On 25/05/2017 at 5:07 PM, Old Croc said:

When I first came here I rented a villa in Rawai, renovated and with a swimming pool.

A couple of years later I recognised the same place up for rent on a large, well known agency site. The ad pre-dated the renovations, which included several extra rooms , repainting and the new pool. It must have been on their website for years, complete with outdated pictures and price. I've never contemplated using that agency and have advised others to steer clear.

 

More recently I found a neighbor's house prominently displayed on another company site, with an extensive pictorial, and made the mistake of asking his wife if they were moving. She was very taken aback. I took a closer look at the pics and realised they were taken at least 6 years earlier.

As stated, they do not remove old advertisements here. Counting what's displayed on these sites to gain an insight into the market is a fools errand.

 

 

Sure, some listings have not been removed.  I conceed that.

 

So, out of 1576 properties for sale on Phuket, on just one website, and not including land, how many do you think have been sold and should be taken off the website?  A rough percentage would be fine. 

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18 hours ago, phuketjock said:

I am sorry xylo if you have so many friends that got it wrong and are struggling because of it.

There are many in Patong who did there homework and have got it right albiet they are not

making a fortune but they are far from struggling.

Things change and if you are not prepared to meet these changes then maybe they shouldn't

have gone into their venture so unprepared. Constantly bleating on about it is not going to make

it any better is it?

 

Assumption: "I am sorry xylo if you have so many friends that got it wrong"  

You make the assumption that they got it wrong. Perhaps it was right when they entered the business but world events change things which cannot always be redeemed locally.

 

Assumption: "Things change and if you are not prepared to meet these changes...

When things change dramatically it is not always possible to meet them as many huge corporations have discovered. Perhaps they planned to meet change, but not always possible when one is limited by type or location of business.

 

Assumption: "they shouldn't have gone into their venture so unprepared

That speaks for itself.......in business you can only prepare for so much. Perhaps they did their homework, but like the GFC, who could prepare for that?

 

Assumption: "Constantly bleating on about it......."

You assume that I am "bleating" but I am stating the facts as I know them. I am stating what I know and see, after all this thread is entitled "Patong is dead", is it not?

 

So taking a lead from you I will go and tell the largest supermarket here that they have got it wrong and didn't do any planning, and whilst I am at it do the same for the large food and beverage chain cos I am sure they'd love to hear your words of wisdom.

 

As for your comment in a later post about bars, well there was a time when bars were very profitable, now not so of course, but then again following your train of thought re bars, if there were no bars here then Patong really would be struggling and the whole economy here would be in dire straits.........after all, thousands flock to this place for the bars and nightlife and the spin off in business is HUGE; without them........???

 

PS. This is my point of view and a post, not a "bleat", please try to understand the difference.

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On 25/05/2017 at 5:46 PM, phuketjock said:

Could this possibly be where some of the doom and gloomers on this thread are finding their

grossly exaggerated figures from??? 

 

 

The total of 1576 properties for sale were from only one website, not a total from many websites.

 

You are welcome to challenge the accuracy of the website, but it clearly shows 1576 properties for sale.  How far out do you think those numbers are?  

 

I posted the link. 

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On 25/05/2017 at 6:30 PM, eisfeld said:

While I agree that the property market in Phuket is a buyers market right now, I also have to agree that the websites of real estate agencies are a questionable indicator. Half of the properties that are listed for years are sold but never removed from the listing and the other half are rehashed properties that never sell but are removed and re-added all the time to make them look fresh. Add to that the total lack of public information about recent property sales, the mentality of refusing to reduce price or even increasing prices when something doesn't sell, the huge amount of new developments everywhere, the horrible build quality in many cases, the non-accountability of many builders, the ignoring of laws regarding zoning, the lack of public planing, ... I think it's enough but my point is that the real estate market in Phuket is thoroughly and properly messed up. FUBAR one might say.

 

But ok this is about Patong and Patong is a tourist attraction because it has the reputation of a party town. The problem here is the change in demographics. Less westeners, more chinese. Noone can dispute that change, even the Thai government can confirm that. Chinese though to a big degree travel in groups, they don't sit in bars and watch football. They don't go clubbing as much. And they tend to get fleeced as much as possible by some businessmen which keep the money out of the Phuket economy. Honestly who can say that it's now a much nicer place than it used to be a few years back? And if you can't say that, then think where it's headed. Everyone races to exploit the place till the last drop of blood is sqeezed from it.

 

"The problem here is the change in demographics. Less westeners, more chinese. Noone can dispute that change" - yes, but is the revenue into the Phuket economy from less westerners and more Chinese the same as when there were more westerners and no Chinese?  I am suggesting it is not. 

 

 

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On 25/05/2017 at 11:39 PM, Old Croc said:

If tourism volume is the main criteria you really don't need to get any Chinese to come a second time.

 

 

I agree, but is it wise to put all your eggs in one basket?

 

Whilst the Chinese tourist market will hardly "dry up" in a hurry (there is over a billion Chinese in China) what happens to Phuket should the Chinese economy, or their currency, hit a hurdle?

 

 

 

 

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On 26/05/2017 at 10:23 AM, chrisandsu said:

The fear and paranoia is out ???

 

No fear and paranoia from me.

 

I have no skin in the game.  I do not own a property or business here, and I am single, and never sent money for a sick buffalo. 

 

If I had anything to fear, it would be the lack of choice and availability that I think will decrease here in the future. 

 

I'm here to make Phuket work for me, not the other way around. 

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19 hours ago, phuketjock said:

I am sorry xylo if you have so many friends that got it wrong and are struggling because of it.

There are many in Patong who did there homework and have got it right albiet they are not

making a fortune but they are far from struggling.

Things change and if you are not prepared to meet these changes then maybe they shouldn't

have gone into their venture so unprepared. Constantly bleating on about it is not going to make

it any better is it?

 

 

I agree there may have been some fools buy a bar or a salon for their prostitute girlfriend, it was never going to be a viable business, however, many did do their homework and had a background in business.  If their business was anywhere else, they probably would have done well.

 

For these people, the ground has shifted below their feet, courtesy of the disgraceful administration, corrupt officials, lack of infrastructure, and greedy Thai landlords here.

 

They are along for the ride now, and can't get off without a financial loss. They have no business left to sell, and nobody to sell it to. 

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4 minutes ago, NamKangMan said:

 

"The problem here is the change in demographics. Less westeners, more chinese. Noone can dispute that change" - yes, but is the revenue into the Phuket economy from less westerners and more Chinese the same as when there were more westerners and no Chinese?  I am suggesting it is not. 

 

 

Lets say Chinese spend half of what a westerner would spend, but twice as many Chinese now come compared to westerners. That would work out around the same.

 

I know Australians, Brits etc who visit 3 times a year and spend stuff all, I also see Chinese spending like crazy.

I know Australians who's total spend for 2 weeks is mama noodles and leo from 7/11. Thats how they can afford to come 3-4 times a year.

 

This colonial, white mans burden , perception, that rich "western" tourists have been propping up the Thai economy for years, and now it has been replaced by a poor Asian substitute. Its ignorant and verging on racist.

 

Its your perception that Chinese spend less, unless you can show some official figures. Even if they do spend less, there are more of them. There are countries like India and Korea who are in the top 10 tourist arrivals who continue to spend and the numbers continue to increase.

 

 

 

 

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16 hours ago, phuketjock said:

Please tell me where I have " made too many assumptions "

I said I was sorry that so many of your friends are struggling,

and unlike you I know many people who are not struggling.

I said things change.

And lets face it you and BD and NKM are never done bleating about it are you?

Where are the assumptions.

The people who are not struggling were able to meet the changes easily or

otherwise so please don't say it can't be done.

There is nothing smug about what I am saying get off your high horse some

people can get it right and some cannot just a fact of life, live with it or make

a change up to you/them.

I must say I had to double take when I saw BAR owners are you serious who in

their right mind would invest their money in a bar seriously and you sympathise 

and 10 of them no surprise there then.

 

 

"who in their right mind would invest their money in a bar" - who in their right mind would invest anything here, in the current economic climate????  Serious question. 

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2 minutes ago, NamKangMan said:

 

Malaysians don't drink, and Singapore only has 6 million people.

So only drinking tourists are good for the economy ?

I know people in Singapore that drive to Phuket for the weekend, 3-4 times a year.

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6 minutes ago, NamKangMan said:

 

Malaysians don't drink, and Singapore only has 6 million people.

Are you kidding?  Of course Malaysians drink.  Sure some Malays don't drink, but not all Malays once out of Malaysia, and let's not forget the Chinese, Indian and other ethnicities.  Singaporeans also like to make more than one trip a year here and do pretty well at splashing cash around as it's cheap compared to Singapore

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9 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

Lets say Chinese spend half of what a westerner would spend, but twice as many Chinese now come compared to westerners. That would work out around the same.

 

I know Australians, Brits etc who visit 3 times a year and spend stuff all, I also see Chinese spending like crazy.

I know Australians who's total spend for 2 weeks is mama noodles and leo from 7/11. Thats how they can afford to come 3-4 times a year.

 

This colonial, white mans burden , perception, that rich "western" tourists have been propping up the Thai economy for years, and now it has been replaced by a poor Asian substitute. Its ignorant and verging on racist.

 

Its your perception that Chinese spend less, unless you can show some official figures. Even if they do spend less, there are more of them. There are countries like India and Korea who are in the top 10 tourist arrivals who continue to spend and the numbers continue to increase.

 

 

 

 

 

Seriously, do you think a Chinese tourist spends "half" of what a western tourist does????

 

I have said I understand TAT's business model.  That is, less profit from each tourist, but more tourists. Basically, less each sale, but more sales to equal, or surpass, previous profits. 

 

I would suggest they will need a lot more Chinese to achieve this, so much so that Phuket's infrastructure will not be able to handle the numbers, and that's just to get  close to matching the western tourist market revenue from yesteryear.

 

I have said it before, but perhaps you can tell me your understanding of the term, "zero baht tourists."

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4 minutes ago, NamKangMan said:

 

"who in their right mind would invest their money in a bar" - who in their right mind would invest anything here, in the current economic climate????  Serious question. 

What economic indicators are we using ? The "NKM economics perception" indicator, or maybe some more reliable ones like GDP or tourist arrivals etc.

Yes a bar is probably not a great investment given current demographics, but saying that, the last couple of times I have ended up in soi Paradise I found all of the bars that do shows etc, to be full of Chinese drinking like there was a brewery strike coming.

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15 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

Are you kidding?  Of course Malaysians drink.  Sure some Malays don't drink, but not all Malays once out of Malaysia, and let's not forget the Chinese, Indian and other ethnicities.  Singaporeans also like to make more than one trip a year here and do pretty well at splashing cash around as it's cheap compared to Singapore

 

Sure, Singaporeans splash some cash around, but with only 6 million people, there's not hoards of them. 

 

Yes, some Malaysians drink, but not a great deal of them, and of the ones that do, it's quite moderate.

 

Indians, well, they will order one beer and four straws.  :smile:

 

Russians, they will buy a bottle of vodka from 7/11.

 

Chinese, they are lead around in a group where the tour leader has done a rock bottom price with the manager of the bar for each drink for the tour group.

 

The Malays, Indians and Singaporeans all have one thing in common, they come here for the cheap sex.  Great for Issan's economy, not really that great for Phuket's economy.

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10 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

What economic indicators are we using ? The "NKM economics perception" indicator, or maybe some more reliable ones like GDP or tourist arrivals etc.

Yes a bar is probably not a great investment given current demographics, but saying that, the last couple of times I have ended up in soi Paradise I found all of the bars that do shows etc, to be full of Chinese drinking like there was a brewery strike coming.

 

You work in real estate here, don't you?

 

I'd like to here what you think would be a sound investment here at the moment.

Edited by NamKangMan
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3 minutes ago, NamKangMan said:

 

Seriously, do you think a Chinese tourist spends "half" of what a western tourist does????

 

I have said I understand TAT's business model.  That is, less profit from each tourist, but more tourists. Basically, less each sale, but more sales to equal, or surpass, previous profits. 

 

I would suggest they will need a lot more Chinese to achieve this, so much so that Phuket's infrastructure will not be able to handle the numbers, and that's just to get  close to matching the western tourist market revenue from yesteryear.

 

I have said it before, but perhaps you can tell me your understanding of the term, "zero baht tourists."

 

My understanding of "zero baht tourists", is a term used mostly by yourself to perpetuate you perception of Chinese tourists, based on no factual evidence. 

I actually think the daily spend for a Chinese tourist is probably similar to a western tourists daily spend. Both groups are probably guilty of spending money in hotels and restaurants belonging to expats from there own country. Russians go to Russian owned nightclubs, Chinese stay at Chinese owned hotels and Australians drink all day at the Aussie bar etc. 

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49 minutes ago, NamKangMan said:

 

No fear and paranoia from me.

 

I have no skin in the game.  I do not own a property or business here, and I am single, and never sent money for a sick buffalo. 

 

If I had anything to fear, it would be the lack of choice and availability that I think will decrease here in the future. 

 

I'm here to make Phuket work for me, not the other way around. 

My comment was aimed at those who took offence to the comment someone submitted about the Thai gf conning them at the land office . The comment got removed so made me void ? On another note do you think the Chinese are dumb enough to buy the gf a house and land that they will never own ? That's probably why houses are not shifting ! We need more dumb westerners please .... maybe that could be the next advert from the thai tourist board ? 

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8 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

 

My understanding of "zero baht tourists", is a term used mostly by yourself to perpetuate you perception of Chinese tourists, based on no factual evidence. 

I actually think the daily spend for a Chinese tourist is probably similar to a western tourists daily spend. Both groups are probably guilty of spending money in hotels and restaurants belonging to expats from there own country. Russians go to Russian owned nightclubs, Chinese stay at Chinese owned hotels and Australians drink all day at the Aussie bar etc. 

 

"My understanding of "zero baht tourists", is a term used mostly by yourself" - you're joking.  Right?

 

Google "zero baht tourist Phuket" and then come back and tell me it's a term mostly used by myself.

 

Here's a random article, and no, I wasn't the author.  :smile:

 

http://www.thephuketnews.com/thai-tour-agents-call-for-more-time-to-clear-up-zero-dollar-tours-59185.php#v6qBVF8GS892AHwI.97

 

Still waiting for your brief explanation of what you understand a "zero baht tourist" to be. 

 

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7 minutes ago, NamKangMan said:

 

Sure, Singaporeans splash some cash around, but with only 6 million people, there's not hoards of them. 

 

Yes, some Malaysians drink, but not a great deal of them, and of the ones that do, it's quite moderate.

 

Indians, well, they will order one beer and four straws.  :smile:

 

Russians, they will buy a bottle of vodka from 7/11.

 

Chinese, they are lead around in a group where the tour leader has done a rock bottom price with the manager of the bar for each drink for the tour group.

 

The Malays, Indians and Singaporeans all have one thing in common, they come here for the cheap sex.  Great for Issan's economy, not really that great for Phuket's economy.

And where is your proof that westerners do it any differently ??????? As I said previously, some of the cheapest tourists I have seen are fellow Australians that visit 4 times a year, live on mama noodles and buy cases of beer from macro. Some of the biggest spenders I have seen are Japanese and Russians. 

Again, your perception that westerners spend more, based on what ??????????

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4 minutes ago, NamKangMan said:

 

"My understanding of "zero baht tourists", is a term used mostly by yourself" - you're joking.  Right?

 

Google "zero baht tourist Phuket" and then come back and tell me it's a term mostly used by myself.

 

Here's a random article, and no, I wasn't the author.  :smile:

 

http://www.thephuketnews.com/thai-tour-agents-call-for-more-time-to-clear-up-zero-dollar-tours-59185.php#v6qBVF8GS892AHwI.97

 

Still waiting for your brief explanation of what you understand a "zero baht tourist" to be. 

 

That would be something like a Brit that stays at a Brit owned guest house, eats at the Brit owned Ye old english pub, and drinks at a Brit owned bar watching English football. 

That is a zero baht tourist, its been going on for years. Its not new to the Chinese.

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