Thai stocks: JAS/JASIF

[MacWalen]

It is interesting to notice that topics in which I make a few posting turn usually to HOT topics. I think that is a good sign.

[JB300]

It is interesting to notice that topics in which I make a few posting turn usually to HOT topics. I think that is a good sign.

Meaning???

I actually take offense at the implication, but carry on in LaLa land if that's what floats your boat...

Several posts in this thread have offered a reasoned opinion, your's have been "I am rubber, you are Glue" so carry on promoting your investment course in that manner...

Edit:summary of the last 3 Mac posts....

Edited May 15, 2015 by JB300

[WorkingTourist]

My apologies to the other people watching this thread for having contributed to irrelevant posts being added, and also for posting my latest dividend, that was inappropriate.

Hopefully the next posts will (again) be about JAS/JASIF — I’ll be sure to revisit the company in the future, cause it will be interesting to see how the 4G adventure turns out.

As for the 33% dilution of the stock, they say that what everyone knows is already in the price, so probably the stock won’t suffer too much, it might even go up a little, once the uncertainty has been lifted.

Edited May 15, 2015 by WorkingTourist

[JB300]

My apologies to the other people watching this thread for having contributed to irrelevant posts being added, and also for posting my latest dividend, that was inappropriate.

Hopefully the next posts will (again) be about JAS/JASIF — I’ll be sure to revisit the company in the future, cause it will be interesting to see how the 4G adventure turns out.

As for the 33% dilution of the stock, they say that what everyone knows is already in the price, so probably the stock won’t suffer too much, it might even go up a little, once the uncertainty has been lifted.

WT, quick question, if the warrants are being offered on a basis of 2 (& a little bit) for 1, isn't that a dilution of 50%???

I.e let's say there's 200 (& a bit) shares in circulation & 100 shares issued under warrant, the net result is that there would be 50% (100) more Shares in circulation than there were before.

EDIT: Apologies, I just realized that you might have been "short circuiting" the "Maths", by taking into account the 35% discount you would get a dilution of somewhere between 31-33%...

Edited May 15, 2015 by JB300

[MacWalen]

Up again. Looks like a growing trend is back. 12 months from now could be 9 baht again.

[Lukecan]

Walen is a baller, thats why people are jealous of him.

1.4 million baht in dividends, thats enough money to go for a soapie everyday.

No wonder old farts here are jealous.

[fletchsmile]

Got me confused, I just got 206,000 baht after tax from Jasmin. Hard ot keep track of all those dividends. Enjoy my trader friends. Learn how real money is made by investors.

It might well be worth you working on your record keeping so that you can better assess your returns.

I don't actively follow the share - just saw it come up in the news recently and recalled from here.

Looks to me at first look like you suffered some quite heavy losses on that between holding and receiving the dividend at least.

To receive that dividend you would probably have been holding on 2 March, which would have been an excellent exit point when the price was 9 baht a share. That div went xd on 3 March for a div of 1.5 baht, payable on 19 March. There was another div of 0.15 went xd on 10 March payable 27 May. So total divs going xd of 1.65, between holding on 3 March to get the div and 1 April your post

http://www.set.or.th/set/historicaltrading.do?symbol=JAS&page=1&language=en&country=US&type=trading

On the date of your post the price closed at 5.55 baht

So in about 1 month 2 March to 1 April the price fell 9 - 5.55 = 3.45 baht. Yet you only have divs worth 1.65 baht in that period

Put another way if you sold on 2 March you could have had 9 baht

because you held until 1 April, your mark to market of 5.55 + realised profit 1.65 was only 7.2 baht

That's a hell of a difference. Be careful when looking at returns, don't just count the dividends and say look how much money I have received (206k after tax)

The loss for that month looks to have been around 20% after dividend ! (38% drop in share price in a month less 2 divs of 18% => 20%)

As I say I don't follow it, but if you look at your position in the bigger picture with more complete record keeping. it looks like you lost about 20% rather than simply getting a dividend and "making real money" as you put it. It's important to understand both realised gains and unrealised losses when assessing returns, also best to mark to market daily if trading and at least monthly if less active.

Cheers

Fletch

Edited May 21, 2015 by fletchsmile

[Lukecan]

How does one go about investing in SET? I dont have a work permit, or any non immigrant visa so I cant open a traders account.

Any others way?

Do any brokers in europe let you buy stocks from SET?

Edited May 21, 2015 by Lukecan

[JB300]

How does one go about investing in SET? I dont have a work permit, or any non immigrant visa so I cant open a traders account.

Any others way?

Do any brokers in europe let you buy stocks from SET?

Pay MacW $1200 & all will be revealed, no Work Permit / Visa required...

Damn, you don't even need to be able to spell Thailand to invest in the SET (same with every other market in the planet),

[MacWalen]

Damn, you don't even need to be able to spell Thailand to invest in the SET (same with every other market in the planet),

That is quite correct. No need to spell well to be good at making money on the stock market. No need for much education either. You just need a bit of common sense and willingness to learn.

[MacWalen]

Got me confused, I just got 206,000 baht after tax from Jasmin. Hard ot keep track of all those dividends. Enjoy my trader friends. Learn how real money is made by investors.

It might well be worth you working on your record keeping so that you can better assess your returns.

I don't actively follow the share - just saw it come up in the news recently and recalled from here.

Looks to me at first look like you suffered some quite heavy losses on that between holding and receiving the dividend at least.

To receive that dividend you would probably have been holding on 2 March, which would have been an excellent exit point when the price was 9 baht a share. That div went xd on 3 March for a div of 1.5 baht, payable on 19 March. There was another div of 0.15 went xd on 10 March payable 27 May. So total divs going xd of 1.65, between holding on 3 March to get the div and 1 April your post

http://www.set.or.th/set/historicaltrading.do?symbol=JAS&page=1&language=en&country=US&type=trading

On the date of your post the price closed at 5.55 baht

So in about 1 month 2 March to 1 April the price fell 9 - 5.55 = 3.45 baht. Yet you only have divs worth 1.65 baht in that period

Put another way if you sold on 2 March you could have had 9 baht

because you held until 1 April, your mark to market of 5.55 + realised profit 1.65 was only 7.2 baht

That's a hell of a difference. Be careful when looking at returns, don't just count the dividends and say look how much money I have received (206k after tax)

The loss for that month looks to have been around 20% after dividend ! (38% drop in share price in a month less 2 divs of 18% => 20%)

As I say I don't follow it, but if you look at your position in the bigger picture with more complete record keeping. it looks like you lost about 20% rather than simply getting a dividend and "making real money" as you put it. It's important to understand both realised gains and unrealised losses when assessing returns, also best to mark to market daily if trading and at least monthly if less active.

Cheers

Fletch

I look at dividends as bonus.

[JB300]

Got me confused, I just got 206,000 baht after tax from Jasmin. Hard ot keep track of all those dividends. Enjoy my trader friends. Learn how real money is made by investors.

It might well be worth you working on your record keeping so that you can better assess your returns.

I don't actively follow the share - just saw it come up in the news recently and recalled from here.

Looks to me at first look like you suffered some quite heavy losses on that between holding and receiving the dividend at least.

To receive that dividend you would probably have been holding on 2 March, which would have been an excellent exit point when the price was 9 baht a share. That div went xd on 3 March for a div of 1.5 baht, payable on 19 March. There was another div of 0.15 went xd on 10 March payable 27 May. So total divs going xd of 1.65, between holding on 3 March to get the div and 1 April your post

http://www.set.or.th/set/historicaltrading.do?symbol=JAS&page=1&language=en&country=US&type=trading

On the date of your post the price closed at 5.55 baht

So in about 1 month 2 March to 1 April the price fell 9 - 5.55 = 3.45 baht. Yet you only have divs worth 1.65 baht in that period

Put another way if you sold on 2 March you could have had 9 baht

because you held until 1 April, your mark to market of 5.55 + realised profit 1.65 was only 7.2 baht

That's a hell of a difference. Be careful when looking at returns, don't just count the dividends and say look how much money I have received (206k after tax)

The loss for that month looks to have been around 20% after dividend ! (38% drop in share price in a month less 2 divs of 18% => 20%)

As I say I don't follow it, but if you look at your position in the bigger picture with more complete record keeping. it looks like you lost about 20% rather than simply getting a dividend and "making real money" as you put it. It's important to understand both realised gains and unrealised losses when assessing returns, also best to mark to market daily if trading and at least monthly if less active.

Cheers

Fletch

I look at dividends as bonus.

Interesting, as an Investor I look at them as part of the overall rationale for investing in the company & an indicator of how well the company is doing...

Dividend rises in-line with profits... Re-invest (ideally via scrip).

Dividend remains static... Amber alert, monitor, take dividend as cash.

Dividend gets cut without a major external reason... Sell

Dividend is held/raised artificially from raising capital... Sell & Run for the Hills...

[AyG]

I look at dividends as bonus.

Given that over the longer term around one third of total return typically comes from dividend income that seems rather myopic.

It also blinds one to the different characteristics of dividend v. growth stocks.

[fletchsmile]

I look at dividends as bonus.

You might also want to look at your risk management processes in addition to how you measure returns.

If you're just looking at dividends as a bonus - which I think is a mistake BTW particularly on a high yielding stock like JAS - you have to think what you could and should have done better when the share price dropped 38% during the time you were holding it. That 38% drop during 1 month of holding is a hefty loss.

You might want to think about stop losses. You may or not be right about the potential of the stock - I don't follow it really except saw OP here. Being right about valuation and being on the right side of the market are two different things. Technical analysis should also have raised a red flag as well to help with timing.

For OP, looks like he's recognised that for himself, but when you were bullish on it you haven't mentioned your 38% drop in a month. To add more to your position later after a significant drop some would also consider trying to catch falling knives, which I think was what username was trying to avoid.

BTW Don't forget to consider witholding tax on high yielding stocks. Although as you correctly mention, there's no capital gains tax, 10% of an 18% dividend = 1.8% tax whihc might have been better managed

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

Given that over the longer term around one third of total return typically comes from dividend income that seems rather myopic.

It also blinds one to the different characteristics of dividend v. growth stocks.

Agree with you, dividends can be a very important part of returns. Particularly when investing rather than trading

Aside from various financial assessment techniques, growth models etc, it's worth bearing in mind that only recently have the UK and US markets hit new all time highs. It took them 14 years - a long time - to exceed their 31 Dec 1999 peaks. During that period if someone was holding a portfolio similar to the index with a buy and hold strategy, virtually all their returns would have been from dividends.

One way around might have been trying to trade in and out. But as another poster has shown above that risks significant downside to capital if you get the timing wrong.

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

Username

In addition to the other links earlier, might be worth you having a look at the following type of chart analysis,and the link below is a reasonable quick overview summary, as well as free:

http://www.investing.com/equities/jasmine-inter-technical?period=86400

March and April probably weren't months to be in this stock, and as you suspected there was further to fall - so right to question. The above analysis at that link on investing.com flags it as a weak buy. Neutral on moving averages, but strong on technical indicators, if a little overbought. Not a big fan of chartist techniques myself but do look at them as regardless of fundamentals other people in the market use. You can be absolutely right in your analysis but simply be on the wrong side of the market at the wrong time, chartists can help a bit here

Also worth bearing in mind the large drops in price recently, eg the above posters 38% in a month are not systemic to the market. The rest of the market did drift down, but hasn't tanked anywhere near that amount, the factors bringing it down were idiosyncratic.

Given the beating its taken, and the shift now in charts, looks like it may have bottomed.

If you're going to invest, really understand why you're doing so. Dividend? Recovery after beating, undervalued ? Technical analysis? When that stops being a valid reason to hold, then exit.

Cheers

Fletch

Edited May 24, 2015 by fletchsmile

[MacWalen]

Another nice dividend from JAS today, 121,851 baht which makes nice total of 327,861 baht so far this year. The stock is very cheap now. If you buy you will make money.

[fletchsmile]

That dividend is the one I mentioned in post #37, it went xd on 10 March payable 27 May.

What has happened for anyone holding that stock since 2 March.

Share price 2 March: 9 baht

Share price now: 5.45 baht

massive fall in share price of 3.55 baht = 39% drop. However, 2 divs received of 1.5 baht + 0.15 baht (mentioned above) = 1.65 baht that's about 18%

When someone receives dividends is also less important than when it goes ex-dividend, as xd is how and when the share price adjusts. Theoretically if someone receives a dividend of 1 million the share price drops by 1 million (excluding tax)

So simply put JAS in the month of March, for every 1 million baht of dividends received (2 divs went xd) the value of the shares has dropped by 2 million (1 million more than the dividend xd adjustment)

So someone maybe has a "income" of THB 1 million from dividends

but

Over the same holding period 2 March - 31 March they have a loss of 2million on the capital side

1 million dividend in vs 2 million fall in share price = 1 million loss in 1 month

I hope posters like usernamex will bear that in mind when assessing the share completely

Cheers

Fletch

[AyG]

The stock is very cheap now. If you buy you will make money.

That assertion is surprisingly confident. Does it come with a money-back guarantee?

[MacWalen]

The stock is very cheap now. If you buy you will make money.

That assertion is surprisingly confident. Does it come with a money-back guarantee?

I could be wrong, I am not a prophet but I am quite confident it will go up. 6.5-7 baht is very realistic this year.

[MacWalen]

The upward trend for JAS continues. Looks very promising.

[WorkingTourist]

WT, quick question, if the warrants are being offered on a basis of 2 (& a little bit) for 1, isn't that a dilution of 50%???

I.e let's say there's 200 (& a bit) shares in circulation & 100 shares issued under warrant, the net result is that there would be 50% (100) more Shares in circulation than there were before.

I missed this one, sorry.

You are correct that there will be roughly 50% more shares (1/2.04 ≈ 49%).

But what matters is how much of the company one share owns, and if you add 49% more shares, the existing shares will own 1/1.49 of what they used to own, so they are diluted by 1-1/1.49 ≈ 32.9%.

So earnings-per-share goes down 32.9% after the share increase, everything else being the same, that should decrease the share price equally, but the company also gets a big capital infusion, so that should be added to the share price. Going by the price before the warrant decision (7.15) I get a share price (XW) of 67.1% * 7.15 baht + 4.30 baht / 3.04 shares ≈ 6.21 baht/share.

So it seems the warrants caused shareholder loss of about 0.71 baht/share (going by today’s price).

Edited June 26, 2015 by WorkingTourist

[dinga]

The upward trend for JAS continues. Looks very promising.

Very promising indeed - JAS was 5 baht yesterday..... Purrrfect time to buy the dip (555555555 - refer to posts in the Walen School of Investment thread)

[MacWalen]

The upward trend for JAS continues. Looks very promising.

Very promising indeed - JAS was 5 baht yesterday..... Purrrfect time to buy the dip (555555555 - refer to posts in the Walen School of Investment thread)

Look at it in the context of the whole market. We will see. You talk like a trader boy, not like an investor.

[MacWalen]

There was also a warrant issued, mine is worth over a million baht. So funny Dinga, right?

[WorkingTourist]

Look at it in the context of the whole market. We will see. You talk like a trader boy, not like an investor.

It’s a little disappointing that someone teaching how to make money on the markets and claiming to understand them, are basically saying, that their predictions, which went against most others, hasn’t come to fruition, because the market conditions changed.

And what exactly has changed in the market that JAS are serving (that we didn’t anticipate five months ago)? I think broadband subscriptions are actually growing faster than what I predicted.

Also, what is a trader boy?

[WorkingTourist]

There was also a warrant issued, mine is worth over a million baht. So funny Dinga, right?

The warrant that was shown to have costed the shareholders 0.71 baht/share?

And actually, that calculation was per diluted share, it should have been calculated for non-diluted shares (so actual loss is higher).

You keep throwing out absolute numbers which are meaningless and to me at least, does not inspire confidence, as it seems you have yet to reach the point where you start to quantify things properly and calculate meaningful performance measurements.

[MacWalen]

Let's see in a year.

[Pattaya46]

Look at the last transaction. Someone bought 24.8 mil shares worth 141 mil baht.

Hi. Sorry, a bit late to reply to this message from April... but needed.

Please look at the time of this transaction too : 16:39

It's after 16:30, SET closure time, so it's the result of the ATC (At the Close Orders),

a combination of all orders executed automatically on ATC Bids & Offers.

It's very frequently a very huge number and never is the action of "someone".

see http://www.set.or.th/en/products/trading/equity/tradingsystem_p6.html, http://www.set.or.th/en/products/trading/equity/tradingsystem_p4.html ...

Edited August 30, 2015 by Pattaya46

[dinga]

Hi. Sorry, a bit late to reply to this message from April... but needed.

Please look at the time of this transaction too : 16:39

It's after 16:30, SET closure time, so it's the result of the ATC (At the Close Orders),

a combination of all orders executed automatically on ATC Bids & Offers.

It's very frequently a very huge number and never is the action of "someone".

see http://www.set.or.th/en/products/trading/equity/tradingsystem_p6.html, http://www.set.or.th/en/products/trading/equity/tradingsystem_p4.html ...

5555555555 - the 'guru's' complete misreading is hardly surprising but offers a further warning siren to all but the stone deaf