Will Condo Prices In Bangkok Go Up Or Down?

[icecubes]

Hope they come down as fast as knickers do

[bingobongo]

ok spinmeisters.....more rainbows?

Average price of houses at four-year low

Bangkok Post: 20 April 2007

By: KANANA KATHARANGSIPORN

Developers shift to low-priced units

The average housing price in Greater Bangkok declined to 2.14 million baht a unit as of the end of the first quarter _ the lowest since 2003 _ because most developers are shifting to the lower-end market, according to the property consulting firm Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA).

The average housing price was 2.83 million baht in 2006 and 3.086 million in 2005, according to the company's earlier surveys.

''This situation showed an oversupply trend in the condominium market remained. If there is an economic crisis, the property market may crash.''

http://thailand-property-guide.com/?p=news...&NewsID=323

Edited April 20, 2007 by bingobongo

[sinam]

No spin needed, developers are buiding cheapers houses for lower income consumers. Thus you have a lower average price. If you imply house prices are coming down then you need to put it in the proper context.

Si Nam

Edited April 21, 2007 by sinam

[obsession]

No spin needed, developers are buiding cheapers houses for lower income consumers. Thus you have a lower average price. If you imply house prices are coming down then you need to put it in the proper context.

Si Nam

It was a real estate company who said it was down to lower cost housing being built. So they are putting "spin" on the figures to avoid people being put off buying property. Dont believe anything a real estate agent ever says without doing your own research. I dont think there is any doubt that property prices are down. Only agents and and owners who cant face it are saying different.

[sinam]

The market is in lower cost housing - thats the context. The market that is out there now can't afford 5 million plus housing. Developers can spin it all they want but no bank will give a consumer a loan if they don't have the income. Unlike the speculative condo market there's not much spin in the housing market as its not for foreigners, its for thais who can qualify for a mortgage. Unlike foreigners banks don't do buy the spin thing. I recently heard one estate that was selling houses for 5 million plus had lots of interest from buyers but 40% of their applicants were rejected by the bank. Thus developers now have to target a lower market with cheaper housing estates. Its simple economics...

Si Nam

[bingobongo]

lets see......

slowing sales - check

loss due to baht strength - check

reduced production - check

reduced cosumer confidence - check

falling demand for houseware -check

condo prices heading south - check

SIAM SANITARY WARE

Firm cuts production 10%

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/04/24...ss_30032525.php

Edited April 24, 2007 by bingobongo

[quiksilva]

Bingo bongo - you really are jumping on every story that seems to validate your own suppositions on the state of the market.

What about the other stories out there? It would also be good I think to see a balanced point of view from an independant observer such as yourself.

You have not mentioned anything about falling interest rates and the proposed reduction in property transfer costs.

These two measures alone will help to stimulate the market.

The impact of these measures will first be seen in the housing and investment market, but the condo markets will be supported by these measures too.

Our firm (one of the largest in Thailand) has certainly seen more foreign buyers shy away from purchases since Christmas but they are still active in the resort markets, even today not in the same numbers but transactions are still happening on a regular basis.

Most importantly the Thai purchasing base has not gone away, they are still out there developers have simply adapted their sales campaigns, and they are still recording pretty impressive sales figures, this sector will only get stronger with this stimulus pacakage.

I stand by the fact that condo values may fall in the short-term, if the the number of incoming expats declines from figures recently achieved. If the number of incoming expats stays on course then the tenant base will be there to support the rental market and ultimately capital values.

Its certainly not all roses out there, but capable real estate agents are not jumping out of tower blocks just yet (no matter how much some might wish).

Edited April 25, 2007 by quiksilva

[bingobongo]

when the LARGEST THAI CONGLOMERATE is reporting lower sales due to contsruction.....you know the bubble is leaking

so far:

home accessory Thai sanitary reports lower sales - check

largest thai conglomerate reports lower profit - check

prices heading south - check

Siam Cement Q1 net profit down 14 pct, above f'cast

Wed Apr 25, 2007 2:35AM EDT

Thailand's biggest industrial conglomerate, reported less than expected 14 percent fall in first-quarter net profit on Wednesday as a weak economy hit the construction and cement businesses.

http://www.reuters.com/article/tnBasicIndu...K00030320070425

Edited April 25, 2007 by bingobongo

[sinam]

What don't some people understand about economic cycles with a little political maneuvering thrown in? I would assume most people on this forum are not professional speculators and are individuals investing in the real estate market for a place to live, holiday home or retirement and in that case you are in it for the long haul. Just like anywhere else you expect and can weather an economic cycle? The coming downturn will not be good for some Thai workers, may hurt appreciation in the short run for condo holders but won't hurt too many foreigners. May even be beneficial to us in some ways. Looks like my mortgage rate is coming down and I am still looking for a great deal on a beachfront property. If the Thais handle it right, they may even come out better for it. Things don't look too bad at all for foreigners unless you are one of those who have broken the law or are trying to bend rules to your liking.

Si Nam

[nick2k]

What don't some people understand about economic cycles with a little political maneuvering thrown in? I would assume most people on this forum are not professional speculators and are individuals investing in the real estate market for a place to live, holiday home or retirement and in that case you are in it for the long haul. Just like anywhere else you expect and can weather an economic cycle? The coming downturn will not be good for some Thai workers, may hurt appreciation in the short run for condo holders but won't hurt too many foreigners. May even be beneficial to us in some ways. Looks like my mortgage rate is coming down and I am still looking for a great deal on a beachfront property. If the Thais handle it right, they may even come out better for it. Things don't look too bad at all for foreigners unless you are one of those who have broken the law or are trying to bend rules to your liking.

Si Nam

in my opinion, people shouldn't be investing their hard earned money in other countries until they are citizens of that country. to be blunt, until they are citizens, they have no rights. to put it in another way, they deserve no rights.

america is currently going through the same scenario with mexico. here we are, we have millions of illegal immigrants coming into america taking jobs in america illegally. and when told they should leave, they protest adamantly that their "rights" are being abused?!

..what rights??!!!!

..sounds a lot like the situation between foreigners buying property here in thailand and the native thais. foreigners come into this country buying property, and expect to be treated like citizens?

give me a break.

[highchol]

What don't some people understand about economic cycles with a little political maneuvering thrown in? I would assume most people on this forum are not professional speculators and are individuals investing in the real estate market for a place to live, holiday home or retirement and in that case you are in it for the long haul. Just like anywhere else you expect and can weather an economic cycle? The coming downturn will not be good for some Thai workers, may hurt appreciation in the short run for condo holders but won't hurt too many foreigners. May even be beneficial to us in some ways. Looks like my mortgage rate is coming down and I am still looking for a great deal on a beachfront property. If the Thais handle it right, they may even come out better for it. Things don't look too bad at all for foreigners unless you are one of those who have broken the law or are trying to bend rules to your liking.

Si Nam

Down Jomtien / Pattaya way it looks like not only mortgages may be comming down!

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=113118

[sinam]

What don't some people understand about economic cycles with a little political maneuvering thrown in? I would assume most people on this forum are not professional speculators and are individuals investing in the real estate market for a place to live, holiday home or retirement and in that case you are in it for the long haul. Just like anywhere else you expect and can weather an economic cycle? The coming downturn will not be good for some Thai workers, may hurt appreciation in the short run for condo holders but won't hurt too many foreigners. May even be beneficial to us in some ways. Looks like my mortgage rate is coming down and I am still looking for a great deal on a beachfront property. If the Thais handle it right, they may even come out better for it. Things don't look too bad at all for foreigners unless you are one of those who have broken the law or are trying to bend rules to your liking.

Si Nam

Down Jomtien / Pattaya way it looks like not only mortgages may be comming down!

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=113118

Thanks I wish I was interested in Pattaya as there may be some deals to be had down there. I haven't been there in 3 or 4 years (if you don't count playing golf at a course nearby). I've never understood the popularity of the place but to each their own.

Si Nam

[cclub75]

Bingo bongo - you really are jumping on every story that seems to validate your own suppositions on the state of the market.

Personaly, I like the "check lists" of Bingo bongo.

You have not mentioned anything about falling interest rates and the proposed reduction in property transfer costs.

These two measures alone will help to stimulate the market.

The impact of these measures will first be seen in the housing and investment market, but the condo markets will be supported by these measures too.

Our firm (one of the largest in Thailand) has certainly seen more foreign buyers shy away from purchases since Christmas but they are still active in the resort markets, even today not in the same numbers but transactions are still happening on a regular basis.

Falling interest rates ? If you lock closer, the landing rates are strangely un-elastic in Thailand. When BOT was increasing, the banks postponed a hike in their rates. Now BOT is reducing, same thing happens. The banks say that their margins are already squizzed. So the MLR is not following a the same pace.

Anyway. There is a demand (less foreigners) and solvability crisis (stats on the loans applications rejected). Going from 5.5 to 4.5, on the BOT side, is not going to wake up the buyers, nor to improve their credit rating.

Furthermore you have to understand that the real estate situation is only a part of the picture, of the large economic picture. This is a very common mistake that professionnals in RE are making. They think that their market is... everything. You are too focused.

By doing this, you are missing many other signals that are coming.

A crisis in real estate, in Thailand, will not be the cause of a larger crisis (contrary to the US), it will be, it is a symptom of a larger crisis.

For instance, in Thailand we have a high political liability. You're talking about foreigners still investing in resort. Fair enough. Do you really believe that they will continue if FBA 2 is really voted and implemented ? Those people are simply misinformed (it's common), or they think they can -still- beat the system... It won't last.

My point is : the current thai authorities are worsening the situation. And my second point : thoses authorities are here for a long time... Until a very specific political event will happen...

When you look at the big picture, there is no way that the real estate could "boom" or "recover" on a short and mid term basis...

[thaigene2]

Excellent post cclub75. Spot on.

[Edonista]

in my opinion, people shouldn't be investing their hard earned money in other countries until they are citizens of that country. to be blunt, until they are citizens, they have no rights. to put it in another way, they deserve no rights.

It's unbelievable what you can read on this forum

So if I invest in a stock quoted at SET I do not deserve the right to receive dividends and subscribe capital increases ?

If I buy property I have no right to rent it out, sell it back or simply inhabit it ?

How can a country think to lure foreign investment with a "no rights" policy ?

(indeed with VISA shake up Thailand is up that way, but it is paying dearly already)

nick2k, I guess you need to get informed about the distinction between civil rights and political rights

[teejay]

well it's been some time since the original question was asked in sept 06. I'm in the process of selling a condo purchased off plan in may of 06 for a cool 1.5 mill in profit..... so to all the haters.... 1.5 mill could buy you a lot of buffalo for your isaan gfs, couldn't it?

I'll lay out the money and photo it for all to see when it's done and over with.... after reading all off the drivel i'm conviced that the haters are the ones renting 5k apartments out in god-knows-where and the reasonably confident ones are well off and buying what they want with no bufallo to take care of and not having to buy a new pickup truck to build face for the baan nork village they live in.... it's a pickup, remember that.... as in ghetto.

so hate hate hate all you want but i guess this is why the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, eh?

[Oleg_Rus]

Our firm (one of the largest in Thailand) has certainly seen more foreign buyers shy away from purchases since Christmas but they are still active in the resort markets, even today not in the same numbers but transactions are still happening on a regular basis.

Gotcha! Quicksilva, no bad feelings, but, gotcha ~

the one of the largest firm in Thailand website is DEAD !!!!

Ain't it boomin' the best answer for the question ? as is " it's not just going down, it's also so useless, that largest firm in Thailand doesn't care anymore "

Picture worth thousands of words.

ping www.knightfrank.co.th

Pinging knightfrank.co.th [61.19.247.38] with 32 bytes of data:

Request timed out.

Request timed out.

Request timed out.

Ping statistics for 61.19.247.38:

Packets: Sent = 3, Received = 0, Lost = 3 (100% loss),

ping www.knightfrank.com

Pinging www.knightfrank.com [212.95.226.106] with 32 bytes of data:

Request timed out.

Request timed out.

Request timed out.

Request timed out.

Ping statistics for 212.95.226.106:

Packets: Sent = 4, Received = 0, Lost = 4 (100% loss),

Edited May 14, 2007 by Oleg_Rus

[quiksilva]

Our firm (one of the largest in Thailand) has certainly seen more foreign buyers shy away from purchases since Christmas but they are still active in the resort markets, even today not in the same numbers but transactions are still happening on a regular basis.

Gotcha! Quicksilva, no bad feelings, but, gotcha ~

the one of the largest firm in Thailand website is DEAD !!!!

Ain't it boomin' the best answer for the question ? as is " it's not just going down, it's also so useless, that largest firm in Thailand doesn't care anymore "

Picture worth thousands of words.

ping www.knightfrank.co.th

Pinging knightfrank.co.th [61.19.247.38] with 32 bytes of data:

Request timed out.

Request timed out.

Request timed out.

Ping statistics for 61.19.247.38:

Packets: Sent = 3, Received = 0, Lost = 3 (100% loss),

ping www.knightfrank.com

Pinging www.knightfrank.com [212.95.226.106] with 32 bytes of data:

Request timed out.

Request timed out.

Request timed out.

Request timed out.

Ping statistics for 212.95.226.106:

Packets: Sent = 4, Received = 0, Lost = 4 (100% loss),

Oleg, thank you for trying to visit our site.

Im sorry you couldn't connect to us but the site is up and running just fine, I checked myself and had friends in other firms do the same to verify my findings.

The fact that you can not ping our URL tells me more about the state of internet service in Thailand, than it does about our firm commitment to this market.

Perhaps a call to your ISP is in order?

[Oleg_Rus]

Oleg, thank you for trying to visit our site.

Im sorry you couldn't connect to us but the site is up and running just fine, I checked myself and had friends in other firms do the same to verify my findings.

The fact that you can not ping our URL tells me more about the state of internet service in Thailand, than it does about our firm commitment to this market.

Perhaps a call to your ISP is in order?

Perhaps. unfortunately, the truth is :

Two sites at different locations are unavalable - man, that sucks.

Once agian - Respect, I always follow your subj, and came to read about real estate t make my mind a bit clear, seeing dead sites - made me confused.

Get webmaster and introduce him to some hardcore ***** posters, the web site(s) must be up and running, no more excuses in 21 century.

And thank you for advice to call to ISP - I don't even know which one - I use two at the same to for redundancy and **** servers through my very own **** channel.

btw 61.19.247.38 is very (really very !!!) reliable and stable place.

Pls, I follow the posts and I'm very interesting on the subject. the web site story is indeed complete off-topic, just to remind you that you're as strong as your weakest link. we don't want to go to screen shots, right ?

Oh, also, pm

Edited May 14, 2007 by Oleg_Rus

[quiksilva]

As I said both websites are most definitely up and running sorry to hear that you are having problems though.

Good luck with that, perhaps we can get back to the topic at hand now?

[palm]

As I said both websites are most definitely up and running sorry to hear that you are having problems though.

Good luck with that, perhaps we can get back to the topic at hand now?

I've scribbled down on my notepad of 'investor tips' to look at the ping status of an international commercial web site before investing money in Thailand - and if the .com site is down they must have closed up shop in the UK too where I believe they are in the top end of the real estate market?

This tip is going right next to the one about the price of tulips.

Edited May 14, 2007 by palm

[pkrv]

As I said both websites are most definitely up and running sorry to hear that you are having problems though.

Touché

I believe the majority are in favour of an increase in value, and why not. Not surprising really given that things tend to increase in value, much as commodity and property values (which have been many times correctly verified) over the course of this thread, and time - Just don't forget, don't expose yourself.....

[stevejones123]

The web site is up and running; I've just checked it from Saudi.

I also get a time out when I ping; using tracert I find the time out is within Saudi.

Advice to real estate investors who can't ping a real estate site.

a) Check to see if it loads in the browser

use tracert to see if the site is really down or if there is a blockage on the way

Edited May 17, 2007 by stevejones123

[ThaiGoon]

I can see that the website is working as well. Here it is: http://www.knightfrank.com/thailand/en/

[Livinginexile]

well it's been some time since the original question was asked in sept 06. I'm in the process of selling a condo purchased off plan in may of 06 for a cool 1.5 mill in profit..... so to all the haters.... 1.5 mill could buy you a lot of buffalo for your isaan gfs, couldn't it?

I'll lay out the money and photo it for all to see when it's done and over with.... after reading all off the drivel i'm conviced that the haters are the ones renting 5k apartments out in god-knows-where and the reasonably confident ones are well off and buying what they want with no bufallo to take care of and not having to buy a new pickup truck to build face for the baan nork village they live in.... it's a pickup, remember that.... as in ghetto.

so hate hate hate all you want but i guess this is why the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, eh?

Teejay.... brilliant.... absolutely spot on.

A bit hard on all the sour grape guys but correct all the same.

Good luck to you, I hope you do well.

[teejay]

Thanks livinginexile....

I also forgot to mention the currency appreciation I've been privy to: about 15%. So about 1.725 million would be closer to the mark...

Good luck to all who invest. Always be informed -- sounds simple but many people don't do their research.

There are those that do, and then there are those that.... complain on TV.

[think_too_mut]

well it's been some time since the original question was asked in sept 06. I'm in the process of selling a condo purchased off plan in may of 06 for a cool 1.5 mill in profit..... so to all the haters.... 1.5 mill could buy you a lot of buffalo for your isaan gfs, couldn't it?

ll you want but i guess this is why the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, eh?

Tell us, in a year or 2, if you had any takers. Possibly, this site might not be around while your property is still on the market.

[gust]

Just saw on TITV's Hot Biz several condo projects in downtown bangkok, including some where construction has not yet begun, some with prices of 100,000Bt/sqm, have been basically sold out in a couple of hours during the last days. Buyers were (of course) mostly Thai. Projects have limited sale to three units per person, banks limit mortgages to two per person. Many probably hope to make a good profit after completion.

Looks like the market is heating up, I'd say. For sure no shortage of demand. Short term the prices should rise further. But the danger is of course over-heating and a possible collapse in the future. If that will happen and when, who knows. Could go on for quite a while until then...

[teejay]

well it's been some time since the original question was asked in sept 06. I'm in the process of selling a condo purchased off plan in may of 06 for a cool 1.5 mill in profit..... so to all the haters.... 1.5 mill could buy you a lot of buffalo for your isaan gfs, couldn't it?

ll you want but i guess this is why the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, eh?

Tell us, in a year or 2, if you had any takers. Possibly, this site might not be around while your property is still on the market.

did you read correctly think too little? process of selling i.e. closing the sale. The sale is now completed an they money is in my acct in HK at 34.42 baht to the dollar... bought around 40.... +15 percent alone in currency appreciation.

Get it? Property is gone, sold, not mine anymore, profited grossly, out of my hands. In a year or 2 i'll tell you about the sick amount of money i'll have made in the HK real estate market, or will you talk down the market over there too... The game is out of your league, time to tend to the sick bufallo, mate, or stop whining about something you have no experience in. I keep making money, what do you keep doing, bithcing?

[Greenman]

Came across this interesting topic and the poll that went with it.

47% reckoned prices would fall......wishful thinking perhaps.

If this was any other country in the world the backside would have fallen out of the property market. We had a coup and we had bombs going of yet the Baht gets stronger.

Prices haven't dropped a cent as people aren't stupid enough to sell their condo's when their is no real panic.

The Thai side of the market is down sales wise by about 18% to 20% I am told, whereas the Farang purchases are down a massive 38%. A lot of this is to do with people thinking they can buy for nothing.

It's obvious now, the market is only going to go one way. New governement comes in American Dollar regains some of it's loss and BOOM!!! the market will take off like a rocket again. Property in Thailand is still dirt cheap and Bangkok is improving as a city every single day.

You may be able to squeeze a bit more out of someone who wants to sell right now but you try doing so about May-June 2008 and you will have no chance.

This is only my humble opinion but then I am never wrong LOL,,,,,,,,,,,,he wishes

Let's see what the birdie says come June. I'll go for a massive 14.75% increase

Edited November 5, 2007 by Greenman