Bangkok bomb: The different theories considered, and why they are met with skepticism

[smotherb]

"Many social-media users have cast doubt on this theory, saying this attack is far too cruel and indiscriminate to be carried out by Thais."

are these the same people who cut the heads off of pigs and display them in the market while standing in a sea of fish blood and fish that are flopping around gasping for air all day, waiting for a zombie to cut their heads off with a butchers knife?

Somehow you equate killing innocent people to butchering food; my my.

[Just1Voice]

Of the few people I have spoken to, there seems strong belief that the red shirts faction carried this out.

What is omitted in the story is the date, the location, the timing, the intended target and secondary target, and the history of red shirts using bombs to intimidate people. The date is 1 day from the 2010 clash between red shirts and government troops, at the same location.

So what if the bomb was bigger than before? The point is its a bomb. its the same M.O.

There was a bombing of a market in Chachoengsao on April 19th last year and police found 1,900 ping pong bombs following the bombing. Ask yourselves this question. How many people can be killed with 1,900 ping pong bombs? I suggest more than 20.

As for the fact that a Thai person didn't do it, lets wait and see how that theory pans out.

Another factor is the timing in relation to the stripping of Thaksins rank.

Another factor omitted in the story is the obvious collateral damage, the Thai economy. Who else has a history of trying to destabilize the economy?

If they did it, why not admit it?, that's obvious too, its a terrific political blunder. I think this could be a final nail in the coffin of this movement if it can be proven.

While its important to remain even handed, its also important to consider all the facts.

Charlie, you say you have spoke to "a few people", and they are of the opinion the red shirts are behind this. That's fine, and I don't doubt what you say. But I live in Chiang Mai, and my wife and I have spoken to DOZENS of people here since this incident, and the overwhelming majority of them think the Junta hired people to do this so that they can maintain their control over the country, and further delay elections.

The thing is, at this point, no one really knows a damn thing for sure, and the way the RTP and this government operate, it's highly likely that we never will. Surat Thani - parking garage - car packed with explosives - cops saying "we have suspects" - how's that one going?

Hopefully, and I say that with a grain of salt, the cops will actually, truly find out who is behind this, and put an end to all the guess work and various theories floating around. But, I won't hold my breath on that happening.

[morpho]

Well I'm not an expert on Uighar terrorism in China but I don't think they've carried out a bomb like this there so it's not logical they would do that in Thailand before China. But surely there could be a alliance network between Uighars and other groups ... the complexities are endless unless we actually discover which group(s) did this and why. The only "theory" I totally reject is a long wolf madman with no organization and no agenda. This was too big and too organized for that.

I just posted this in another thread but The Guardian says that China thinks it was aimed at Chinese tourists. LINK

Or the Chinese government did it so they could blame the Urghurs and get international support to crack down on them even further.

[cumgranosalum]

As with the Khai Tao murders, the Thai authorities seem determined to make international fools of themselves.

If they all shut up, appointed ONE SPOKESPERSON and release considered and factual information they could avoid this. Unfortunately it seems every Nabob with a bit of scrambled egg on his collar wants to make a name for himself by issuing unsubstantiated comments and theories about.....well, nothing in particular.

[Orac]

Does anybody know where Nomsod was at the time?

[cumgranosalum]

One should also be concerned about moves to use this as an excuse for further curtailing civil liberties within the country with a political agenda.

[asiacafe]

Of the few people I have spoken to, there seems strong belief that the red shirts faction carried this out.

What is omitted in the story is the date, the location, the timing, the intended target and secondary target, and the history of red shirts using bombs to intimidate people. The date is 1 day from the 2010 clash between red shirts and government troops, at the same location.

So what if the bomb was bigger than before? The point is its a bomb. its the same M.O.

There was a bombing of a market in Chachoengsao on April 19th last year and police found 1,900 ping pong bombs following the bombing. Ask yourselves this question. How many people can be killed with 1,900 ping pong bombs? I suggest more than 20.

As for the fact that a Thai person didn't do it, lets wait and see how that theory pans out.

Another factor is the timing in relation to the stripping of Thaksins rank.

Another factor omitted in the story is the obvious collateral damage, the Thai economy. Who else has a history of trying to destabilize the economy?

If they did it, why not admit it?, that's obvious too, its a terrific political blunder. I think this could be a final nail in the coffin of this movement if it can be proven.

While its important to remain even handed, its also important to consider all the facts.

what clash between govt troops and red shirts happened on or around Aug 17, 2010? The clashes between red shirts and govt troops happened on May 19, 2010.

[lovelomsak]

Well I'm not an expert on Uighar terrorism in China but I don't think they've carried out a bomb like this there so it's not logical they would do that in Thailand before China. But surely there could be a alliance network between Uighars and other groups ... the complexities are endless unless we actually discover which group(s) did this and why. The only "theory" I totally reject is a long wolf madman with no organization and no agenda. This was too big and too organized for that.

I just posted this in another thread but The Guardian says that China thinks it was aimed at Chinese tourists. LINK

Or the Chinese government did it so they could blame the Urghurs and get international support to crack down on them even further.

Now thats a theory I can believe maybe true. I looked at the 2 guys in front of the bomber the guy in red and guy in white they definitely look chinese to me. And I feel they were assisting the bomber.

[cumgranosalum]

So do we go to Ladbrokes and bet on which idiot was got it right?

I'm completely gobsmacked by the stupidity of just about every post that peddles some kind of theory....just who do these daft people think they are?....it's not as if they are even spouting anything that a 12 year old might not come up with.......

[arrowsdawdle]

The OP sums of the weirdness of this. There really are good reasons to rule out ALL of those theories. But the bomb happened so one of them is probably right!

Unless you factor in who just appeared on the scene from phony monkhood.

[cumgranosalum]

What does the statement that Uighur don't have the ability to carry this out. Didn't anyone notice that the south is a Muslim problem? And that isil doesn't care other than to support Muslim insurgency worldwide. My god, what a truly dumb editorial

It would seem that yours is even dumber though.....just who are ISIL fighting in Syria and Iraq? Muslims.....the south isn't a Muslim problem, it's a separatist movement....the only problem with "muslims" is your own blinkered perception

[xerostar]

Maybe the Thai treatment of Rohingyas has given Al Qaeda an excuse for a revenge attack on Thailand.

The date 17th August seems to be significant too.

On 17 August 2005, around 500 bomb explosions occurred at 300 locations in 63 out of the 64 districts of Bangladesh.

Perpetrated by Al Qaeda

[arrowsdawdle]

One should also be concerned about moves to use this as an excuse for further curtailing civil liberties within the country with a political agenda.

See Barack, we are going to have to forget about human rights for awhile since it looks like those fishing crews put out of work by your standards want their jobs back or there will be further bombs.

[Xonax]

".........others say this Chinese minority does not have the ability or a level of hatred high enough to unleash an attack as deadly as this."

I strongly believe in the Uighur theory, but that they will find the terrorist belonging to the Turkish minority of Uighurs, who recently attacked the Thai embassy in Turkey.

Rumours say, that the terrorist took a taxi from Silom to the airport, so has the police been viewing the CCTV footage from the airport on that particular day. They should be able to find the man and link him to the passport he used. Possibly on a flight to Turkey or elsewhere in that region.

[arrowsdawdle]

What does the statement that Uighur don't have the ability to carry this out. Didn't anyone notice that the south is a Muslim problem? And that isil doesn't care other than to support Muslim insurgency worldwide. My god, what a truly dumb editorial

It would seem that yours is even dumber though.....just who are ISIL fighting in Syria and Iraq? Muslims.....the south isn't a Muslim problem, it's a separatist movement....the only problem with "muslims" is your own blinkered perception

Just cuz you're not paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you.

[Usernames]

If this attack does appear connected somehow with Thailand's slavish obeisance to Chinese demands, then it is understandable why some in the government may want to keep the entire incident as unclear and confused as it appears right now.

[lgking]

"Now thats a theory I can believe maybe true. I looked at the 2 guys in front of the bomber the guy in red and guy in white they definitely look chinese to me. And I feel they were assisting the bomber."

Geez...a majority of Bangkokians look 'Chinese'...that's because they are.

Mother China has 'bigger fish to fry' than 'little' Thailand.

[Loaded]

The theory from Mrs. Noo is that there is a strongly held belief by the Red Shirts and the Big Boss that until the Erawan shrine is destroyed the Big Boss will be unable to return to Thailand.

Sounds like nonsense.

It wouldn't to many Thais. You are a farang and you understand very little about Thai superstitious beliefs.

[dcpo]

The theory from Mrs. Noo is that there is a strongly held belief by the Red Shirts and the Big Boss that until the Erawan shrine is destroyed the Big Boss will be unable to return to Thailand.

Sounds like nonsense.

It wouldn't to many Thais. You are a farang and you understand very little about Thai superstitious beliefs.

Superstition aside, it's implausible that the Reds would choose such an inefficient way to destroy the shrine, if that were their intention.

[cumgranosalum]

One should also be concerned about moves to use this as an excuse for further curtailing civil liberties within the country with a political agenda.

See Barack, we are going to have to forget about human rights for awhile since it looks like those fishing crews put out of work by your standards want their jobs back or there will be further bombs.

on a par with most of the comments on this post - twaddle

[Oziex1]

I'm with those who question the theories on who did this as many if not all the above mentioned would be proud to take responsibility for their actions, failure to take the credit diminishes the effectiveness of the action.

The speculation will now continue.

[kennw]

Join the dots, and those who have been here for years will see which theory carries most weight. Internal issue !

[multatuli]

One option that doesn't get mentioned: thailand has lots of internet-savvy youngsters that are very unhappy with the way the country is run and that have no sympathy for crony grps like red ir yellow shirts. We may be seeing the beginning of a thai Baader-Meinhof.

[Treborz]

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/oldest-isis-jihadi-80-year-old-chinese-grandfather-fights-islamic-state-syria-1504293

[sunshine51]

The OP sums of the weirdness of this. There really are good reasons to rule out ALL of those theories. But the bomb happened so one of them is probably right!

JT...I agree with you on this. One of them or...as Donald Rumsfeld once said...

There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known

unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are

also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.

However...I'll take a scene from an American TV game show Let's Make A Deal hosted

by Monty Hall and....back it up with some past events as evidence. It's easy to Google for

the past events too. On with the game show...

Monty! Monty! Monty...I'l take the door named The Military Junta!

Monty Hall to me: That's a fine choice Sunshine...please explain why

for our studio & national audience.

OK Monty I'll do this...one moment please...

Firstly...the detonation site WAS "sanitised" rather quickly after the explosion.

Secondly...In the early reports as reported by international & some local media

the Army seemed to know a lot about the type of device used...ie...what powered

it & what it was packed with...without forensic evidence backing up the claims.

Thirdly...The fact that the junta stands to lose more than they gain due to the

bombs impact on Thai tourism is the oldest excuse in the book & anybdy

with a half a brain knows the excuse is lame as in the long term this holds

no water, the tourista's will return...unless the bombings continue.

Fourthly..."They also find it difficult to comprehend that any government can

commit such cruelty."....Well the Indonesian military under Suharto did this with

extreme regularity by sending "provocateurs" to... say...an area or outlaying

island to stir up hatred (religious/ethnc) and riots would ensue. Cals for help

would be paced to Jakarta and jakarta would send in the military...usually

Kopasus (spec ops) or the strategic brigades and have the mess sorted in a

matter of days with many casualties on the side of the "insurgents" who at

one time...were ordinary folks who got along very well together for centuries

before Jakarta sent in thise pesky crap stirrers.

Google for "Maluku sectarian conflict" & "The Tragedy of Ambon: what did

really happen?" for more info on just one of Indonesia's use of nearly the

same tactic.

Closer to LOS Hun Sen has used the violence tactic to ensure his tenure

as PM in Cambodia will last until he dies of natural causes.

The Generals in Burma do the same thing now as they have in the past.

The US did it in Central & South America during the 60's to early 80's

time frame. remember the Iran-Contra thing?

The Russians did it in Chechnya & are doing it today in Ukraine....

so...

Who is the 'They" who find it difficult to comprehend that any government

could do this sort of attack on innocent people? Who is in charge of this

contry is who "they" are.

Lastly...'Backpack Man" if not long out of LOS by now is most likely to

be in tiny pieces scattered throughout the forests somewhere way out

past metro BKK. And so are the other two lads who were said to be his

lookouts. Either this or they were just a few plods who fit the bill.

Mr CGI photo with the official blue chop on it is just that...Mr CGI Photo.

So Monty...I will take the Junta door!

[Loaded]

The theory from Mrs. Noo is that there is a strongly held belief by the Red Shirts and the Big Boss that until the Erawan shrine is destroyed the Big Boss will be unable to return to Thailand.

Sounds like nonsense.

It wouldn't to many Thais. You are a farang and you understand very little about Thai superstitious beliefs.

Superstition aside, it's implausible that the Reds would choose such an inefficient way to destroy the shrine, if that were their intention.

Not sure their intention was to destroy the shrine; I think their intention was to cause death and terror within view and in the compound of the shrine.

[Artisi]

Of the few people I have spoken to, there seems strong belief that the red shirts faction carried this out.

What is omitted in the story is the date, the location, the timing, the intended target and secondary target, and the history of red shirts using bombs to intimidate people. The date is 1 day from the 2010 clash between red shirts and government troops, at the same location.

So what if the bomb was bigger than before? The point is its a bomb. its the same M.O.

There was a bombing of a market in Chachoengsao on April 19th last year and police found 1,900 ping pong bombs following the bombing. Ask yourselves this question. How many people can be killed with 1,900 ping pong bombs? I suggest more than 20.

As for the fact that a Thai person didn't do it, lets wait and see how that theory pans out.

Another factor is the timing in relation to the stripping of Thaksins rank.

Another factor omitted in the story is the obvious collateral damage, the Thai economy. Who else has a history of trying to destabilize the economy?

If they did it, why not admit it?, that's obvious too, its a terrific political blunder. I think this could be a final nail in the coffin of this movement if it can be proven.

While its important to remain even handed, its also important to consider all the facts.

The military / police / government are considering all the facts, just that between them they can see100's of facts - just can't seem to settle on any one of then that makes much sense - chook with head cut-off seems to ring a bell.

[MockingJay]

To me, none of the presented six theories feels right. That bomber is a young weakling. With his gayish moves and all he looks like a carbone copy of all those crazed other youngsters, like the Boston bomber, the Batman cinema guy, etc... possibly on anti-depressive drugs and stuff, mentally deranged... thinking that he has a "mission" to fulfill, or possibly hoping to become famous as THE Bangkok bomber or something. Problem is that a sane person tries to find rational explanations for an irrational and erratic deed. Can't possibly work out.

[Charlie Croker]

Of the few people I have spoken to, there seems strong belief that the red shirts faction carried this out.

What is omitted in the story is the date, the location, the timing, the intended target and secondary target, and the history of red shirts using bombs to intimidate people. The date is 1 day from the 2010 clash between red shirts and government troops, at the same location.

So what if the bomb was bigger than before? The point is its a bomb. its the same M.O.

There was a bombing of a market in Chachoengsao on April 19th last year and police found 1,900 ping pong bombs following the bombing. Ask yourselves this question. How many people can be killed with 1,900 ping pong bombs? I suggest more than 20.

As for the fact that a Thai person didn't do it, lets wait and see how that theory pans out.

Another factor is the timing in relation to the stripping of Thaksins rank.

Another factor omitted in the story is the obvious collateral damage, the Thai economy. Who else has a history of trying to destabilize the economy?

If they did it, why not admit it?, that's obvious too, its a terrific political blunder. I think this could be a final nail in the coffin of this movement if it can be proven.

While its important to remain even handed, its also important to consider all the facts.

Hi Charlie,

I thought the date of the clash in 2010 was May 19th, was there another?

Yes you are correct, sorry my comment was too vague,

I meant the monthly vigil paid to the shrine by those who lost loved ones on may 19th 2010.

[lensta]

Has anyone noticed that there hasn't been a word said or printed about the Koh Tao murder trial

since Tuesday 18th? The hearing dates are 18, 19, 20, 21, 27, 28 August.