Phuket property glut?

[Jimi007]

"and we have no intention of buying in the NOW." - so, perhaps you could tell us why you would not buy "NOW."

Considering most readers of this forum were not considering buying property on Phuket 20 years ago, the "NOW" just might be a little more relative to them than the "THEN."

Sigh Sigh - it's obvious because the resale potential is poor to bad.

How do you know that 'most readers of this forum were not considering buying property on Phuket 20 years ago' as this forum was not started until 11/12 years ago.

I have no idea what percentage of expat would buy 20 years ago or 10 years ago. I suspect not many for all the reason you bang on about for many years. But a few of us like the idea of not renting and giving security to our Thai wives. I suspect your attitude might change if heaven forbid you even got married to a Thai. Unlikely ...

I agree with what you're saying. I thought about buying 10 years ago, but I wasn't married then, so problematic, plus rent was and still is cheap! Same price as 10 years ago for my house. The landlord made an offer to me to buy my house a couple years ago again and said he'd put all my past rent towards the purchase price. I may take him up on that some day, but not right now. My wife is pretty covered as she owns 50 rai near the major highway just outside of the city of Sa Kaeo. Plus since we were married in California, she inherits my two houses there. She still wants to built a place out near her family in Sa Kaeo, which we may do next year. Just what I need; 4 houses, another car and more motorbikes! Oh well, life's a beach!

So, plenty of assets, and none of them on Phuket?

Why????

I think the answer is obvious by the comments on this thread. By the time I thought I could, it was a bit too late. Now property prices are inflated. But in my case, not, I could buy it for the same price as 10 years ago. As I said may do someday, but not right now for many personal reasons. I do thing's very logically, if it works, why try to fix it...

[louse1953]

I keep an eye on all the major real estate websites for Phuket (and Thailand). I see the same properties for sale for many years. They get posted over and over and over again to make it look like they just got onto the market.

Houses advertised as brand new but I've seen them for sale for 4 years and know they are even older than that. Every single soi on the island seems to have numerous houses for sale/rent.

My landlord from who I rent also treats me very very well because they know if I move out, she'll have big trouble renting this house. She also owns the one next to me and in the past 2 years, it didn't have a tenant.

The estate has about 10% of houses for sale/rent or abandoned even though it's a fine, decent place.

I know of some Thai ladies who own some villas that they "got" from their falang husbands which are sitting for years up for sale/rent. They are not getting maintained so are slowly deteriorating. They don't want to invest 10k THB to fix them up and make them look nice to be able to rent them out. Even agents are refusing to list them...

Or other properties which are way overpriced and are asking something like 60-80k THB rent for a 3br 3bath 230sqm house with pool. They let them sit there instead of lowering the price and getting at least a bit of money back.

You want to buy land of 800sqm and build a house? That's gonna be 4-5M THB for the land plus something like 6-8M THB to build a decent house. That would take 20 years of near constant occupancy at 50-60k THB a month to recoup. And after 20 years it'll look like shit because of the building standards here.

Who is moving to Phuket to buy properties like that? Certainly not families who want to work here and raise kids. Retired guys? Not many that have that kind of cash. Rich guys who just need to park their wealth somewhere? There are some indeed but these people have much better choices in other countries with rule of law.

Before a lot of russians used to buy here. They're gone. Westeners increasingly are doubtful of the future of Phuket - with good reason.

All those condos? They are either near a beach and target the rental for tourists market. Good luck getting those 3-5M THB back in condo rentals in a reasonable timeframe.

Or they target the working middle class like D Condo in Kathu. Even at 1.2-1.5M THB you'd need to rent them near constantly for 10 years at 10k THB per month. The target audience doesn't have that kinda money for the most part. They have salaries of 10-15k THB.

Hence many are for sale/rent.

If there was rule of law and you could be certain that you wont lose your property and not have to worry about visa nonsense or civil war, I'm sure they'd find buyers. But it's not the case unfortunately. Guys with cash can go to HongKong, Singapore or a numerous other places.

I spend most of my time here. I have the cash to buy properties. But I won't do as it's just a silly thing to do right now unless you really want to live here in the long term and don't care much. If things go south considerably more I'm out in a heartbeat.

I do have seen some successful properties being built the past years. But they are far and few between.

It's gonna be interesting to watch the next 5 years unfold. I honestly can't tell what'll happen to the property market but my gut feeling is that it wont make a miraculous comeback.

There is a slight glut, yes. But even without the glut of new properties the market is dysfunctional.

The environmental impact of all the new unneeded, unwanted construction is the really sad part of this.

At what point does lack of sales stop this environmental building disaster?

"At what point does lack of sales stop this environmental building disaster?" - as Pattaya became a city by the sea, Phuket will become an island city.

Phuket's beaches will be exploited and destroyed, the same way Pattaya Beach was some years ago.

It's the Thai way to "slash and burn" for money today, with no consideration for sustainable industries for generations to come.

Don't just bag the Thai's,greed knows no borders..

[NamKangMan]

<snip>

In relation to property here 20 years ago, I was pointing out that, in my opinion, I think this thread it aimed at the "NOW" and not the "THEN" which has little relevance to the majority of readers. That said, I could be wrong, and happy to hear from readers who would like to discuss the historical value of property on Phuket.

Was there a "Phuket property glut" 20 years ago, or 12 years ago?

No - there was not a glut 20 years ago, not even 12 years ago - glut is much more recent, I condsider in the last 5 years.

Apologies mods - going a bit off topic now ..

Clearly you know little or nothing about the Thai thinking. My wife would not be interested in me leaving any property in the UK as she does not live or even visit there, even then my son would have a strong claim. That's why I sold my 2 UK properties years ago and helped my son buy his own home many years ago to make sure there was no inheritance legal squabble. I own nothing in the UK ... and as you would rightly state I own nothing much here in Thailand, well maybe the car title and some nonsense company shares ...

My wife has much more land and a house in her own home area (inherited from her mother). I have discussed with her what she would do with our Phuket homes on my death. I worry about that, but she is not the least worried, it will all be Ok for her. And I will be dead and doing the very long sleep ... aaaah

"Clearly you know little or nothing about the Thai thinking." - I can assure you I do know about the Thai way of thinking, "Money number one."

I do believe you have said this yourself in other posts. Am I wrong?

[NamKangMan]

I keep an eye on all the major real estate websites for Phuket (and Thailand). I see the same properties for sale for many years. They get posted over and over and over again to make it look like they just got onto the market.

Houses advertised as brand new but I've seen them for sale for 4 years and know they are even older than that. Every single soi on the island seems to have numerous houses for sale/rent.

My landlord from who I rent also treats me very very well because they know if I move out, she'll have big trouble renting this house. She also owns the one next to me and in the past 2 years, it didn't have a tenant.

The estate has about 10% of houses for sale/rent or abandoned even though it's a fine, decent place.

I know of some Thai ladies who own some villas that they "got" from their falang husbands which are sitting for years up for sale/rent. They are not getting maintained so are slowly deteriorating. They don't want to invest 10k THB to fix them up and make them look nice to be able to rent them out. Even agents are refusing to list them...

Or other properties which are way overpriced and are asking something like 60-80k THB rent for a 3br 3bath 230sqm house with pool. They let them sit there instead of lowering the price and getting at least a bit of money back.

You want to buy land of 800sqm and build a house? That's gonna be 4-5M THB for the land plus something like 6-8M THB to build a decent house. That would take 20 years of near constant occupancy at 50-60k THB a month to recoup. And after 20 years it'll look like shit because of the building standards here.

Who is moving to Phuket to buy properties like that? Certainly not families who want to work here and raise kids. Retired guys? Not many that have that kind of cash. Rich guys who just need to park their wealth somewhere? There are some indeed but these people have much better choices in other countries with rule of law.

Before a lot of russians used to buy here. They're gone. Westeners increasingly are doubtful of the future of Phuket - with good reason.

All those condos? They are either near a beach and target the rental for tourists market. Good luck getting those 3-5M THB back in condo rentals in a reasonable timeframe.

Or they target the working middle class like D Condo in Kathu. Even at 1.2-1.5M THB you'd need to rent them near constantly for 10 years at 10k THB per month. The target audience doesn't have that kinda money for the most part. They have salaries of 10-15k THB.

Hence many are for sale/rent.

If there was rule of law and you could be certain that you wont lose your property and not have to worry about visa nonsense or civil war, I'm sure they'd find buyers. But it's not the case unfortunately. Guys with cash can go to HongKong, Singapore or a numerous other places.

I spend most of my time here. I have the cash to buy properties. But I won't do as it's just a silly thing to do right now unless you really want to live here in the long term and don't care much. If things go south considerably more I'm out in a heartbeat.

I do have seen some successful properties being built the past years. But they are far and few between.

It's gonna be interesting to watch the next 5 years unfold. I honestly can't tell what'll happen to the property market but my gut feeling is that it wont make a miraculous comeback.

There is a slight glut, yes. But even without the glut of new properties the market is dysfunctional.

The environmental impact of all the new unneeded, unwanted construction is the really sad part of this.

At what point does lack of sales stop this environmental building disaster?

"At what point does lack of sales stop this environmental building disaster?" - as Pattaya became a city by the sea, Phuket will become an island city.

Phuket's beaches will be exploited and destroyed, the same way Pattaya Beach was some years ago.

It's the Thai way to "slash and burn" for money today, with no consideration for sustainable industries for generations to come.

Don't just bag the Thai's,greed knows no borders..

Sure, greed in universal, but western countries have town planning laws.

[zaZa9]

Those people that were using retirement extensions when the requirement was to show 400,000 Bt are still only showing 400,000 Bt.

It's called "Grand-fathering".

If you are now on the extension and showing 800,000 Bt, that is all you will ever have to show as it will also be "Grand-fathered".......and no NKM, I have no proof that they will grand-father the next rise, but, going on past precedent, they will.

Ok, you can now use your fevered imagination to come up with some more negative scenarios......

So, it would be an impossibility for the Thai Government to contemplate, and a totally "negative scenario" if they decided to stop "Grand- Fathering" would it?

Unlikey - always honored the 'grand fathering' forever.

Getting a long way from the topic NKM

The point I am trying to make is, a foreigner can buy a property here, but if the Thai Government changes the visa rules, some may not be able to live in their own property.

Ok, so, back on topic.

Is there a property glut on Phuket or not?

If there is, why is there?

If there is not, why isn't there?

I think there is.

My evidence is only anecdotal , but that will have to suffice for me , as I cant even seem to find an 'official' population count for Phuket anywhere.

So , in my pleasant little Soi of 4 rental homes , 2 are now empty.

They have been empty since before Christmas.

This has never happened before in the 5 years Ive lived here.

One house has come up occasionally , but always taken up again within 2 weeks max previously.

When I leased my house , it was then next to a garden and surplus parking area to a condo building.

Without anyone being informed ( including those who had purchased condos in the development , and assumed the extra parking and green space was an asset ) , the condo developer built on the carpark and green space.

6 stories of apartments within 10 metres of our kitchen window.

Any dreams I had about possibly purchasing my rental place evaporated - and my cynicism about "owning" in Thailand began.

None , NOT ONE , of the 24 apartments next door have sold ....the first two floors however , this season , have had Russian families stay.

Around the corner is two new small cottages .

They have been sitting there empty since completion 6 months back.

Up on the Soi , there have been 8 townhouses ( 2 beds up , 2 rooms down , 2 bathrooms , 1 car car park per ) built a year back. The sign says they are for sale at 7 million. None have sold - tho about half currently have tourists perched in them at 1,000 baht a night.

Across the road from them is a free standing house for sale , first price , 5 million. It was purchased 4 years ago , for 5 million.

Up a dead end road nearby is a development that has lovely 3 bedroom apartments , really nice.

They sold 9 years ago for 7 million each .

Last year a punter bought 2 of them , yes , TWO , for 4 million baht.

The land owner of this development has been successfully manipulating the farang purchasers of 30 year leases here for years , dragging them into the courts in the vain hope they can make her desist , and, unbelievably , when she 'loses' she doesnt follow court orders NOR pay costs , but is still allowed to launch yet another countersuit !

Its a [deleted] disgrace !

Any 'owner' there would be relieved to get half their outlay back....

Meanwhile , outside the gates , a small landowner has decided to become a raw rubber buyer - any of you guys know what that smells like?

And down a bit , a shanty town has sprung up with maybe 20 rough old sheds - no sewer supplied , but the pristine bubbling brook passing the site now has plenty of blue pipes laying in it.

Lets come back to the townhouses.

Behind them is a substantial home owned by a Thai lady.

A year after she built , some poor Thais rented the land next door - and turned it into a recyclers yard.

Great ...

She says there is nothing she can do about it .

Meanwhile they are clear felling the steep hill behind her and her 3 other neighbouring houses - stripping it totally bare. The red EARTH is exposed , and will start moving when the next rains arrive ...

Dont even get me started on the Thai homes going in without any parking - hell , theres a hotel being tripled in size in my villiage that has the previous parking taken away!

So all around where I live Im seeing crash and burn scenarios for property owners these last few years - tho I dont doubt that somebody made a lot of money on purchases made 15 years plus back ...

Of course , if they were farang , then I meant somebodies THAI WIFE made some good money.

And thats the final nail in the ownership coffin for me .

If I cant own it , I cant own it.

And nowadays Im quite happy I cant.

BTW - nobody can convince me that its impossible to make somebody move either. If you give money to your wife to buy land and lease it off her and build on it , then watch out. If the relationship goes to pack , and the Thai lady really wants the house - she , with the help of her family , WILL get it.

There is a property glut here , and there is good reason for it...

[phuketrichard]

I agree with what you're saying. I thought about buying 10 years ago, but I wasn't married then, so problematic, plus rent was and still is cheap! Same price as 10 years ago for my house. The landlord made an offer to me to buy my house a couple years ago again and said he'd put all my past rent towards the purchase price. I may take him up on that some day, but not right now. My wife is pretty covered as she owns 50 rai near the major highway just outside of the city of Sa Kaeo. Plus since we were married in California, she inherits my two houses there. She still wants to built a place out near her family in Sa Kaeo, which we may do next year. Just what I need; 4 houses, another car and more motorbikes! Oh well, life's a beach!

So, plenty of assets, and none of them on Phuket?

Why????

I think the answer is obvious by the comments on this thread. By the time I thought I could, it was a bit too late. Now property prices are inflated. But in my case, not, I could buy it for the same price as 10 years ago. As I said may do someday, but not right now for many personal reasons. I do thing's very logically, if it works, why try to fix it...

he will sell u the place u have been renting for 10 years for the price it would have been 10 years ago?

HUH?? i might venture to guess your 10 years of rent has already MORE than paid for the land and house.

Land values have gone at least up 3 to 4 times everywhere on the island with some places much more in the past 10 years

[Jimi007]

I agree with what you're saying. I thought about buying 10 years ago, but I wasn't married then, so problematic, plus rent was and still is cheap! Same price as 10 years ago for my house. The landlord made an offer to me to buy my house a couple years ago again and said he'd put all my past rent towards the purchase price. I may take him up on that some day, but not right now. My wife is pretty covered as she owns 50 rai near the major highway just outside of the city of Sa Kaeo. Plus since we were married in California, she inherits my two houses there. She still wants to built a place out near her family in Sa Kaeo, which we may do next year. Just what I need; 4 houses, another car and more motorbikes! Oh well, life's a beach!

So, plenty of assets, and none of them on Phuket?

Why????

I think the answer is obvious by the comments on this thread. By the time I thought I could, it was a bit too late. Now property prices are inflated. But in my case, not, I could buy it for the same price as 10 years ago. As I said may do someday, but not right now for many personal reasons. I do thing's very logically, if it works, why try to fix it...

he will sell u the place u have been renting for 10 years for the price it would have been 10 years ago?

HUH?? i might venture to guess your 10 years of rent has already MORE than paid for the land and house.

Land values have gone at least up 3 to 4 times everywhere on the island with some places much more in the past 10 years

I guess they like me! I've paid about 1.3 M, they want 6 M...

[zaZa9]

I agree with what you're saying. I thought about buying 10 years ago, but I wasn't married then, so problematic, plus rent was and still is cheap! Same price as 10 years ago for my house. The landlord made an offer to me to buy my house a couple years ago again and said he'd put all my past rent towards the purchase price. I may take him up on that some day, but not right now. My wife is pretty covered as she owns 50 rai near the major highway just outside of the city of Sa Kaeo. Plus since we were married in California, she inherits my two houses there. She still wants to built a place out near her family in Sa Kaeo, which we may do next year. Just what I need; 4 houses, another car and more motorbikes! Oh well, life's a beach!

So, plenty of assets, and none of them on Phuket?

Why????

I think the answer is obvious by the comments on this thread. By the time I thought I could, it was a bit too late. Now property prices are inflated. But in my case, not, I could buy it for the same price as 10 years ago. As I said may do someday, but not right now for many personal reasons. I do thing's very logically, if it works, why try to fix it...

he will sell u the place u have been renting for 10 years for the price it would have been 10 years ago?

HUH?? i might venture to guess your 10 years of rent has already MORE than paid for the land and house.

Not the case for me either.

My rent is 12,000 a month in a very tidy housethats fully furnished and built 2010 ...its on stilts , so double the area under roof.

The rent INCLUDES fast internet , clear and unlimited well water , and locall cable - all of which I would have to pay for as an owner .

The rent has never risen.

At year 5 now ( x 144,000 baht a year ) , I have barely clocked 700,000 baht.

When I asked a couple of years back , they wanted 5 million for it.

You do the math.

[zaZa9]

I agree with what you're saying. I thought about buying 10 years ago, but I wasn't married then, so problematic, plus rent was and still is cheap! Same price as 10 years ago for my house. The landlord made an offer to me to buy my house a couple years ago again and said he'd put all my past rent towards the purchase price. I may take him up on that some day, but not right now. My wife is pretty covered as she owns 50 rai near the major highway just outside of the city of Sa Kaeo. Plus since we were married in California, she inherits my two houses there. She still wants to built a place out near her family in Sa Kaeo, which we may do next year. Just what I need; 4 houses, another car and more motorbikes! Oh well, life's a beach!

So, plenty of assets, and none of them on Phuket?

Why????

I think the answer is obvious by the comments on this thread. By the time I thought I could, it was a bit too late. Now property prices are inflated. But in my case, not, I could buy it for the same price as 10 years ago. As I said may do someday, but not right now for many personal reasons. I do thing's very logically, if it works, why try to fix it...

Land values have gone at least up 3 to 4 times everywhere on the island with some places much more in the past 10 years

If you can sell it .

See Post #155.

[KarenBravo]

Land is relatively easy to sell compared to second-hand houses. Thais are also buyers.

[zaZa9]

Land is relatively easy to sell compared to second-hand houses. Thais are also buyers.

My question is : Why are Thais averse to second hand houses?

And if they truly are , why so in a rush to build on their land and make it all the less resaleable?

[KarenBravo]

Firstly, why buy second-hand when there are so many new houses that have never been lived in. New is better for gaining face than second-hand.

Also, with a new house that has never been lived in, there are definitely no ghosts. The same can't be said for used houses.

Why do they build on their land? Because either they want to live in their new house themselves, or, sell and make profit from the land and profit from the house.

You will also find Thais averse to buying the house opposite a T-junction, where the roads meet. The thinking is that a ghost will come down the road and instead of turning, will go straight into their house.

I'm not making this up.

Edited January 10, 2016 by KarenBravo

[LivinginKata]

Land is relatively easy to sell compared to second-hand houses. Thais are also buyers.

My question is : Why are Thais averse to second hand houses?

And if they truly are , why so in a rush to build on their land and make it all the less resaleable?

I agree that just the land is much easier to sell. Then folks can build there own home style. As for Thais they worry too much about dead spirits still hanging about a house.

edit// KB beat me to the ghost thing ... It's a very real issue for Thais ...

Edited January 10, 2016 by LivinginKata

[phuketrichard]

problem with many of the homes/condos/shop houses for sale is the owners expect to make huge profits and are not happy with a small profit.

look for another crash like back in the 9o's when the banks had lent out to much $$ an no one was paying back their loans

Phuket 20 years ago' as this forum was not started until 11/12 years ago.

I'd say a bit longer than that as i joined 12 years ago next month

Anyone that has brought house/land in the past 3 years will never see a profit in my opinion.and as far as a condo ,..... they will be lucky to sell it at a loss,

why buy a used one when you can get a new one cheaper?

Edited January 10, 2016 by phuketrichard

[jamie obda]

I am thrilled by all the insights and post people have made. It is very valuable. As the OP to this thread, I want to thank LIK, KarenBravo, Simon43, phuketrichard, NKM, madmitch, DrDave and others whose monnikers don't come to mind. I owe you all a beer.

My assumption, based on my primary feed FB's Phuket Rent and Sale Property group is that there are a plethora of vacancies. Since this is an English speaking group, prices are higher, and probably only represent 10 - 20% of what is available. There are some Russian postings, too. And some of these "realtors" do multiple posts every 5 - 7 days asi if the property is "new."

Most of the advertised prices are quite high, in my opinion. and again I think this in part due to being web based - which is to say appealing to people who not already on the island. And in part due to it being in English. The For Sale properties are slightly more realistic, in terms of a capitalistic dynamic of supply demand, but only if it is falang owned.I'm seeing condos in the Kata Hills and far reaches of Chalong ranging from B25k to B50k/month. I'm seeing villas upwards of 75k per month. These are egregious prices, I think. Meanwhile, I have an expat friend in Chalong who is renting a two bedroom semi-furnished house with parking three minutes walking to Jimmy's Lighthouse on a long term for B10k/month. For my part, I would rather do a long term in something like that, even if I am only there part of the year, than have to roll the dice every winter.

Unless the market crashes (it might), or there are other unpleasantries (civil war) which I think are doubtful, I'm of the long term rent mode. And having said that, please do not misunderstand it as an affront to those on this forum who have bought. Each in their own time according to their means and needs.

Again, thank you all for your comments and insights.

[AJBangkok]

Land is relatively easy to sell compared to second-hand houses. Thais are also buyers.

My question is : Why are Thais averse to second hand houses?

And if they truly are , why so in a rush to build on their land and make it all the less resaleable?

If you are Thai and buy a house or condo new from the developer you can normally get a 90% mortgage as the developer usually has a deal with the banks. If you buy 2nd hand then depending on your personal relationship with the bank you can only get a 50-70% Mortgage.

Most Thais can't or won't come up with a 30-50% deposit so buying from the developer is the only option for them. They just want the property and don't even consider that it's overpriced because they never consider resale value when they are in the process of buying it.

[bearpolar]

Land is relatively easy to sell compared to second-hand houses. Thais are also buyers.

My question is : Why are Thais averse to second hand houses?

And if they truly are , why so in a rush to build on their land and make it all the less resaleable?

If you are Thai and buy a house or condo new from the developer you can normally get a 90% mortgage as the developer usually has a deal with the banks. If you buy 2nd hand then depending on your personal relationship with the bank you can only get a 50-70% Mortgage.

Most Thais can't or won't come up with a 30-50% deposit so buying from the developer is the only option for them. They just want the property and don't even consider that it's overpriced because they never consider resale value when they are in the process of buying it.

yeah we put down about 400k~on 2.6mb a few years ago.. If we pay the minimum we only pay interest, most thais do this.

Good thing is, with all the idiots overpaying nowadays, even if i were to pay the minimum and pay double the price of my house id still breakeven because my house is worth about that with the upgrades/furnishing. The development down the road is STILL selling like hotcakes, smaller houses of cheaper quality in a shittier village and they start at 4.5mb(for twin).

If i sell tomorrow, im making more than 2x my investment and it wont take long to sell as its very in demend. There's still good money to be made.

[NamKangMan]

Land is relatively easy to sell compared to second-hand houses. Thais are also buyers.

My question is : Why are Thais averse to second hand houses?

And if they truly are , why so in a rush to build on their land and make it all the less resaleable?

If you are Thai and buy a house or condo new from the developer you can normally get a 90% mortgage as the developer usually has a deal with the banks. If you buy 2nd hand then depending on your personal relationship with the bank you can only get a 50-70% Mortgage.

Most Thais can't or won't come up with a 30-50% deposit so buying from the developer is the only option for them. They just want the property and don't even consider that it's overpriced because they never consider resale value when they are in the process of buying it.

yeah we put down about 400k~on 2.6mb a few years ago.. If we pay the minimum we only pay interest, most thais do this.

Good thing is, with all the idiots overpaying nowadays, even if i were to pay the minimum and pay double the price of my house id still breakeven because my house is worth about that with the upgrades/furnishing. The development down the road is STILL selling like hotcakes, smaller houses of cheaper quality in a shittier village and they start at 4.5mb(for twin).

If i sell tomorrow, im making more than 2x my investment and it wont take long to sell as its very in demend. There's still good money to be made.

Ahhhh, did you miss the bit in this threat about a glut of properties being on the market, no buyers around, and Thai's not liking secondhand homes????

[sebastion]

http://www.kamalala.com/the-disastrous-phuket-property-glut/

Thaivisa member?

[thaistocks]

2 1/2 years later after this topic was first pounded on,  since then: Phuket road new mega infrastructure is just about done.  The new Intl. Airport has opened with doubled capacity. The Chinese are coming in droves, some now to buy property...not least because Sydney and Melbourne are well, way over priced...and the Thai Baht currency is firm. The new mega Central multi billion Baht shopping center is about to open with fanfare -and not least the health and expanded hospital sector is just about fantastic. There are no to little property taxes here, the traffic has gotten better and at least to some extend the beach mafia has been cleaned up.  After some years of healthy consolidation, select properties with at least some views besides peace will re-surge...and many naysayers will miss it. Or worse get stuck in well overvalued other key global risky destinations like Toronto, Melbourne, Sydney and oh boy, London.

Edited October 13, 2017 by thaistocks

[madmitch]

19 hours ago, thaistocks said:

2 1/2 years later after this topic was first pounded on,  since then: Phuket road new mega infrastructure is just about done.  The new Intl. Airport has opened with doubled capacity. The Chinese are coming in droves, some now to buy property...not least because Sydney and Melbourne are well, way over priced...and the Thai Baht currency is firm. The new mega Central multi billion Baht shopping center is about to open with fanfare -and not least the health and expanded hospital sector is just about fantastic. There are no to little property taxes here, the traffic has gotten better and at least to some extend the beach mafia has been cleaned up.  After some years of healthy consolidation, select properties with at least some views besides peace will re-surge...and many naysayers will miss it. Or worse get stuck in well overvalued other key global risky destinations like Toronto, Melbourne, Sydney and oh boy, London.

I assume you are in the real estate business!

[thaistocks]

46 minutes ago, madmitch said:

I assume you are in the real estate business!

Nope not at all, read my user name.  :)

[madmitch]

5 minutes ago, thaistocks said:

Nope not at all, read my user name.  :)

OK. Just wondered. Some people have their fingers in many pies.

 

 

[phuketrichard]

20 hours ago, thaistocks said:

2 1/2 years later after this topic was first pounded on,  since then: Phuket road new mega infrastructure is just about done.  The new Intl. Airport has opened with doubled capacity. The Chinese are coming in droves, some now to buy property...not least because Sydney and Melbourne are well, way over priced...and the Thai Baht currency is firm. The new mega Central multi billion Baht shopping center is about to open with fanfare -and not least the health and expanded hospital sector is just about fantastic. There are no to little property taxes here, the traffic has gotten better and at least to some extend the beach mafia has been cleaned up.  After some years of healthy consolidation, select properties with at least some views besides peace will re-surge...and many naysayers will miss it. Or worse get stuck in well overvalued other key global risky destinations like Toronto, Melbourne, Sydney and oh boy, London.

NICE joke, drive around, see all the EMPTY, half finished shop houses, condos,  see the TERRIBLE traffic over Patong hill ( as now instead of 1 big bus they are replaced with 6 mini bus's) which will get much worse when the high season gets here. Traffic between Kamala and patong really bad now>
drive the kathu- bypass road to Tesco and look  at the 100's of shop houses empty

Yes new central mall due to open, which means the current number of shoppers (just cause a new mall opens does not mean more shoppers),  will have Twice as many places to not spend their baht.

 

Could go on and on...

 

PS  Jan 23 2016 to oct 14th is NOT 2 1/2 years  55555

Edited October 14, 2017 by phuketrichard

[Psimbo]

45 minutes ago, phuketrichard said:

NICE joke, drive around, see all the EMPTY, half finished shop houses, condos,  see the TERRIBLE traffic over Patong hill ( as now instead of 1 big bus they are replaced with 6 mini bus's) which will get much worse when the high season gets here. Traffic between Kamala and patong really bad now>
drive the kathu- bypass road to Tesco and look  at the 100's of shop houses empty

Yes new central mall due to open, which means the current number of shoppers (just cause a new mall opens does not mean more shoppers),  will have Twice as many places to not spend their baht.

 

Could go on and on...

 

PS  Jan 23 2016 to oct 14th is NOT 2 1/2 years  55555

I think I'll pass on his stock tips if this is how he judges!

[AJBangkok]

Actually it's a bit of a self serving post so in about 18 months to 2 years he can say he called it but overall he's right. Phuket has been bouncing along the bottom for some time and even though there is a bit of an overhang it could be taken up quite quickly if say the Chinese started buying . I guess Thaistocks is making his call now as last week there was further clarity on the timing of the elections and return to democracy. Whether you want to believe it or not the fact that Thailand is under the control of a military government kills investment at all levels both domestic and foreign. 

[AJBangkok]

20 hours ago, Psimbo said:

I think I'll pass on his stock tips if this is how he judges!

Actually Mr Thaistocks (if it's the guy I think it is ) has been around since the early 90's marketing a strategy of buying small cap high dividend yield Thai companies to international investors. It's been an incredibly successfull strategy and in terms of percentage return I would not be surprised if he isn't the the most successful fund manager in the history of the Thai stock market (in percentage return not absolute quantum) If he followed his own advice which I think he did then he's probably richer than anyone posting on this board. It doesn't mean he is a property expert but he does understand economics and markets. Why he"s choosing to make a post like this baffles me. Maybe he's retired and misses the action 

[NamKangMan]

 

Older expats from the boom times in the 80's are passing on. 

 

Constant building and release of new houses and condo's here, and they are still clearing more land for development.

 

The baht is stong, and many global currencies are weak at the moment. 

 

Thailand is politically unstable, with no remedy in sight. 

 

In general, the Chinese are only interested in higher end property in western countries, where they can own in their own name, and are backed up by a proper judicial system.  

 

The Phuket property market is overpriced.

 

There are currently 1000's of properties on the market here, with many of them being for sale for years - nothing moving. 

 

Phuket has a rapidly shrinking western tourism market, hence, the expat and/or retiree market of tomorrow will be in decline as well. (changing demographic?

 

Phuket has failing infrastructure, in many crucial sectors. 

 

Corruption is rampant here, and possibly getting worse, particularly as traditional corrupt cash flows decline.

 

This is just off the top of my head, but I can't see how all of the above makes Phuket property a good investment. 

 

Feel free to add to the list.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 15, 2017 by NamKangMan

[madmax2]

Last property i know of that was actually sold recently in Rawai , the owner excepted a offer of 5M

The owner was originally asking 12M

it was 5 self contained bungalows on a block of land in a good location for rentals

The market is flooded with properties for sale, people are even putting up for sale notices on the light/power poles around the Rawai area, there are lots of vacant rental properties available in areas that were previously hard to find in rental properties in

This is not Bangkok, sydney, perth, london or any other overdeveloped area, just get a 100 metres of any road and there is vacant undeveloped land in all areas except Patong and Phuket town but you would not think so with the over the top prices they are asking for it, its land with no services and only suitable for growing rubber trees or palm oil on   

[thaistocks]

Some good comments, as usual most negative. Most all resorts around the world have traffic congestion, especially during the the high season!  I was in St. Tropez, considered one of France most exclusive resorts in April of 2016, (no not Easter) big traffic congestion at all times of the day getting out of there. The parking lot had holes, unfinished pavement.. just lousy.  Property prices are horrific, the food is unhealthy and overpriced by any standard,  taxes sky high.  The ocean not as nice as in Phuket.

 

Unlike most other resorts, Phuket real estate has no property taxes to speak of, and if you present value (PV) annual property taxes in other "more developed" resorts these amount to a huge amount! So factor that in.  Most of Phuket property have no bank mortgages' or other liens on it. Hence its very underleveraged vs. compared to other top resorts. This is important because if there ever is a global crisis of some sort people's property are all but paid for in Phuket,  no need for bail outs or forced sales. Again, compare that to other key tourist non-Thai destinations, which are chuck full of financial levearage.  Its true over the past couple of years there were traffic nightmares due to mega-infrastrucre undertaking,often delayed, but these have now been 90% completed..and traffic congestion is noticeable far less. Chalong being the last major bottle neck. The new airport is just about fantastic and so are the international direct flights.  Health care is tops with key and expanded major international hospitals and so are various top internationally rated English schools.

 

It is true there is an abundance of "nice houses" around, many have a sign up for sale. As these owners dreams of making a bundle, but in nor hurry. This has to do mostly with many expats coming here over the years and then only invest in their home or homes, thinking on making "good investment business". This is in good part because most have no clue to financial assets investing as an alternative, as they think bad about the SET (if you don't understand something you inherently don't like it) and so just think if "I build it, buyers will come"  and in the meantime one can see it, kick it, garden it.. and enjoy it. Too often lack of zoning laws, does not help.  Over time there has been a built up of homes, many are nothing to really get excited around. Walled up with a mini-pool and no view, often in a back alley.  Agreed those are in abundance and nearly unsellable.  But any special property with view and some real Wow factor, are moving and besides, renting well.