ISIL raises its banner in southeast Asia with four local groups pledging loyalty
By Robert Hackwill

PARIS: -- Indonesia has seen attacks by Islamist militants before, but Thursday’s coordinated assault by a team of suicide bombers and gunmen is unprecedented and reminds people of the sieges seen in Mumbai seven years ago and in Paris last November.

The world’s largest Muslim State is now receiving considerable attention as a potential beachhead for regional ISIL extremism.

Scores of Indonesians are believed to have traveled to Syria to wage jihad with various Sunni militias and several Indonesian Islamist entities have openly campaigned for ISIL.

But many other countries in Southeast Asia face the same threat of ISIL inspired attacks.

In September, Malaysian police thwarted a plot to detonate bombs in Kuala Lumpur’s vibrant tourist area of Bukit Bintang. Other recent plots frustrated by Malaysian security forces included plans to raid army camps and seize weapons.

During the past few weeks in the southern Philippines, four Islamic terrorist groups have joined forces to become an outpost for ISIL. Among those groups is the notorious Abu Sayyaf, which is believed to be the mastermind behind numerous attacks across southeast Asia over the past decade.

ISIL’s strength is not only the power to inspire sympathisers, but also the ability to capitalise on attacks committed by others, with no direct links to the group.

The Erawan Shrine bombing in the Thai capital Bangkok, which killed 20 people last August, is believed to be the work of separatist groups. But the way it was executed
reminds investigators of the same methods and tactics often used by Islamist terrorists.

Since ISIL launched its “world war”, the group has striven to show that it can strike anywhere in the world. The most recent attacks seem to prove that.

Indonesia has been attacked by Islamist militant groups in the past and was on high alert over the new year period after threats from the so-called Islamic State (IS).

National police spokesman said while it was not yet clear who carried out the attack, IS had warned of a “concert in Indonesia” which would be international news.

Nial O’Reilly, euronews:
“For more on the attacks in Indonesia we’re joined by analyst Omar Hamid, who is head of Asia-Pacific Country Risk at IHS.

Mr Hamid, why would Islamic State or its allies attack Indonesia?”

Omar Hamid:
“Indonesia has always been one of the countries where there’s been a considerable friction and tension with regard to Islamist militancy. Now, Indonesia has in the past been very successful in handling this, and especially in the years 2002 to 2009 where there was a spike in terror attacks in Indonesia and the government was able to deal with that in a very effective manner, which led to a decline (in attacks) in the years subsequent to 2009.

But, nevertheless, the basic components of Islamist insurgency or of militancy still remain in the country. And also, we’ve seen an increasing number of Indonesians go and take part in the war in Iraq and Syria on behalf of Islamic State and as you will see some of these people coming back to Indonesia you’ll find they bring back a high degree of
capability.”

euronews:
“Is this an alliance of convenience between the local group and Islamic State? Do they share the greater goals of Islamic State or do they have their own agenda?”

Omar Hamid:
“Fundamentally, in a country like Indonesia the primary driving factor will always remain the local context. Of course local groups will find complementarity with trans-national groups like the Islamic State or, for instance, al-Qaeda as well. So there will always be a degree of commonality, but the basic agenda will be one that’s driven by local imperatives.”

euronews:
“Is there a threat to the wider region? Is there a risk that Islamic State could spread its activities elsewhere in the region?”

Omar Hamid:
“The risk is not so much the Islamic State coming in itself and establishing a foothold in southeast Asia. The primary risk is that in a number of south east Asian countries, including as I said Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines as well, you have people who have gone over to fight with Islamic State volunteers in Iraq and Syria and as these jihadists return to their homeland – and that’s not necessarily happening immediately, but it may happen in the medium term outlook over the next five years or so – you’ll find that the capabilities they bring will be of a much higher level than those of existing militants in those countries.

They’ll almost act as a force multiplier. And, in fact, if you want to look at an historical parallel it’s very similar to what happened at the end of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the late 80s and early 90s, where again a lot of people who had fought in Afghanistan returned to countries like the Philippines and Indonesia and brought a higher skills set, which subsequently led in the late 90s and early 2000s to the start of very active insurgencies in these countries.”


-- (c) Copyright Euronews 2016-01-15

Thailand is such a prime soft target, I think it is only a matter of time until we see significant attacks.

When can we expect the standard claim that this won't affect LoS as the authorities have the situation under control, have ' intelligence ' and are monitoring potential suspect groups ?

An off-topic post has been removed. Please read the OP before commenting.

I was in Pattaya the other day and noticed that someone had written on the dusty window of a car: "ISIL rocks." and "ISIL is great"

Maybe just a stupid kid, but the idea is there.

Sadly, I don't think Thailand will be spared. It is just a matter of time.

When can we expect the standard claim that this won't affect LoS as the authorities have the situation under control, have ' intelligence ' and are monitoring potential suspect groups ?

In the other morning paper, that has already been stated..........."the JKT terrorism attack won't affect Thailand".............

Indo is a dung hole and I'm only surprised because there hasn't been more attacks.

ISIS,ISIL, DAESH or whatever they call themselves this week are COWARDS.

Their prophet was a coward and they are merely following in his footsteps.

People that gun down unarmed civilians and hide explosives set to target innocent people as they go about their daily life's are the lowest of low. These guys could parachute out of a snakes backside.

They hide and attack the weak and vulnerable because they know they wouldn't stand a chance fighting out in the open, man on man. It's the same reason the paedophile prophet Mohammed preyed on young girls for sexual pleasure, it was clear to him that he would be rejected by a woman.

I challenge any Isis grub to a man on man fist fight, I'm old, bit fragile but a million times more manly than any terrorist that targets ordinary Civilians. Low life grubs !

When can we expect the standard claim that this won't affect LoS as the authorities have the situation under control, have ' intelligence ' and are monitoring potential suspect groups ?

In the other morning paper, that has already been stated..........."the JKT terrorism attack won't affect Thailand".............

Thanks for that I feel so much better now as I was concerned the ever vigilant authorities had actually dropped the ball for once. ?

i am unsure of the exact number but hasn't there been over 7,000 deaths attributed to the Muslim problems in southern Thailand already?

I think anyone who doesn't think there will be an escalation of terrorist attacks throughout Thailand, especially in Bkk and major tourist centers, is living in a fantasy world.

I fear that 2016 is going to be a very nasty year globally for these types of attacks.

The Southern insurgency may be especially vulernable to ISIL infiltration and manipulation.

The RTM has stymied negotiations with Mara Patani and BRN by insisting on complete control of the process while it continues with its failed Safe Zone and Thung Yang Daeng models. The RTM will have only ityself to blame if ISIL is able to radicalize the South into a full-blown war.

The Southern insurgency may be especially vulernable to ISIL infiltration and manipulation.

The RTM has stymied negotiations with Mara Patani and BRN by insisting on complete control of the process while it continues with its failed Safe Zone and Thung Yang Daeng models. The RTM will have only ityself to blame if ISIL is able to radicalize the South into a full-blown war.

Yes, while the Shiniwattra regimes made such good progress. How many Muslims were massacred under Thaksin's watch? How many times did Yingluck go and speak with the Thai Muslims in the South? Delegating to a known drunkard with a thuggish reputation must have really impressed them.

Sorting the South out is a very difficult job, no doubt about that. But successive regimes this century have achieved little so let's not pretend it's all the military's fault and not those regimes too.

ISIL are very good at recruiting young, disaffected, impressionable Muslim young people. They have proved that in many Western countries as well as the ME. It was only a matter of time before they try to expand. As the Western countries take the fight to them, they will bring the fight to others.

Thailand, with it's troubles in the South, Muslim base to recruit from, and vibrant tourist industry that attracts visitors from countries ISIL have conflict with, must be a target sooner or later and should be very wary.

This is the beginning. There needs to be a coordinated worldwide effort. Unfortunately, I think many more must die before this happens

Isis or whatever you call them seem he'll bent on destroying tourist country's,this makes the people poorer and open to them recruiting as was said earlier Thailand is a prime target,its just a matter of time ,the wife and I were only discussing it the other day.

Sooner or later, Singapore is going to cop a terror act. It's surrounded by muslim countries and an easier target could not be found. Despite its heavy Chinese influence and calm multi-ethnic make-up, it's still a beacon of westernism in the centre of a muslim area.

So the US supported terror group moves into Indonesia. Is a message, being sent to them or just another jab to keep the Aussies in constant fear of terror and on the endless war wagon?

And of course the Chinese terrorists, (like the ones in Bangkok earlier) are apparently being trained in US ally Turkeys camps & hardened in Syria before being sent back to China.

Just as well I'm not a conspiracy nutter...

When can we expect the standard claim that this won't affect LoS as the authorities have the situation under control, have ' intelligence ' and are monitoring potential suspect groups ?

Of course they have it under control, thats why there are only an average of 545 people killed by Islamists every year.

If it is "known" individuals are returning homeland from activities with other terrorist groups then surely the potential for reducing risk could be by detaining these individuals for participating in illegal activities in a another place? Surely departure card or arrival card info stating "tourism" pre empts " killing people I have been persuaded to hate" ? Committing criminal acts usually has consequences in place of origin even if committed elsewhere. Anti terrorist legislation introduced almost globally surely has the capacity and if in every case was unremmiitant in detaining proven demonstrable participants of terror "as in known" .

The increasing pandemic of terror acts has been disgustingly manipulated into a religious war resulting in polarized opinion which has exacerbated the potential for reactionary conflict.

Any act of terrorism is now subject to claim by ISIL by virtue of influence if not in reality. Media pandering to that perception increases both ISIL in further manipulative influence by virtue of religious justification and the reactionary credence o

f that .

Leave out mention of religion and stamp hard on terrorist actions purely and simply as that.

The world needs to stop legitimizing terrorists by referring to some name they have given themselves.

Condemn them and call them only what they are... terrorists.

I didn't know that SE Asia was either Iraq or the Levant.

Thailand is such a prime soft target, I think it is only a matter of time until we see significant attacks.

I have a heck of a lot more to worry about than terror attacks. Your odds of getting your ticket punched in a terror attack is many magnitudes times less than getting killed on The Second Most Dangerous Roads in the World, and I mean Thailand!

The roads scare the hell out of me. Terrorist? Not very much.

The difference is dealing with reality (road deaths) and dealing with the media hyped boogie-men.

But for those out there that subscribe to 'fear-porn', indulge yourself in the main-steam media fear-fest all you want. I have better things to do.

Thailand is just as much at risk as any other Asian or western country.

Thailand is just as much at risk as any other Asian or western country.

Of course, Thailand is at risk.

Thailand is such a prime soft target, I think it is only a matter of time until we see significant attacks.

I have a heck of a lot more to worry about than terror attacks. Your odds of getting your ticket punched in a terror attack is many magnitudes times less than getting killed on The Second Most Dangerous Roads in the World, and I mean Thailand!

The roads scare the hell out of me. Terrorist? Not very much.

The difference is dealing with reality (road deaths) and dealing with the media hyped boogie-men.

But for those out there that subscribe to 'fear-porn', indulge yourself in the main-steam media fear-fest all you want. I have better things to do.

That's true about the odds of being killed by an Islamist terrorist up to a point. What is worthy of fear is if these terrorists forces become more successful. You know the 9-11 attack on the USA was historically very significant but they would have gone much much further if they had been able to manage it. The important thing is to nip that destructive potential in the bud.

OK, sorry if I didn't get your subtle message of reasonableness in your genocidal proclamation.

I can see a case for an aggressive response. Within reason. The really important thing for the future of civilization is that Daesh or any group like Daesh doesn't ever get significant military capability to wreak havoc beyond their localized region. That's their goal and they are getting there.

I didn't know that SE Asia was either Iraq or the Levant.

You raise a very good point that confounds (not suggesting you are confounded) many people. DAESH (an arabic term) changed from including the "Sham" to just "Islamic State" to make clear they see their caliphate as having no borders. Obama & Company do not want to use "ISIS" for some reason but instead use the alarming acronym "ISIL." It is alarming because this includes the "Levant" specifically, which includes Israel. There is much information about this online but this one link tackles some of the confusion.

"Bay'ah" (allegiance) to DAESH grows constantly. Reach whatever conclusion your politics permit but it is indisputable that under Obama's stewardship more has been done to willingly or unwittingly aid radical islamic jihad than ever before. Nearly every single Obama policy has (supposedly) failed or backfired and resulted in increased funds, weapons, and legitimacy for the DAESH. Lastly, do not think for a moment that progress against DAESH solves anything; it does not. DAESH is not the problem, it is a symptom. This issue existed before DAESH and will expand and increase DAESH's usefulness to the West expire and they are even wiped out. DAESH is a wholly owned creation of the West and Sunni overlords. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-vs-islamic-state-vs-isil-vs-daesh-what-do-the-different-names-mean-9750629.html

When can we expect the standard claim that this won't affect LoS as the authorities have the situation under control, have ' intelligence ' and are monitoring potential suspect groups ?

Of course they have it under control, thats why there are only an average of 545 people killed by Islamists every year.

A bit out of date but info below provides a good insight. As usual the largest numbers killed are civilians, but no breakdown of those killed by 'insurgents', extrajudicial killings by Thai security agencies, smuggling gangs etc

two Posts Advocating Genocide removed

The Levant (Arab) region has a Population of around 45 million Indonesia's population 255 million

and they are mainly Muslim ,so recruiting from there should be a piece of cake,It is no wonder Australia

is trying to stop boatloads of "refugees"from entering the country, Thailand needs to be aware of

it's vulnerability in the south.