Trump's questioning of the value of data worries Republicans

[webfact]

Trump's questioning of the value of data worries Republicans
By BILL BARROW

ATLANTA (AP) — Donald Trump says he plans to win the White House largely on the strength of his personality, not by leaning heavily on complex voter data operations that have become a behind-the-scenes staple in modern presidential campaigns.

Shortly after Trump explained his approach in an Associated Press interview — data is "overrated," he said — one of the presumptive Republican nominee's top advisers tried to clarify the remarks. Rick Wiley told AP the Trump campaign will indeed tap the Republican Party's massive cache of voter information.

The national Republican Party has spent massive sums of money to develop the database since President Barack Obama's election set a new standard for using data in national campaigns, from deciding where to send a candidate and how to spend advertising dollars to making sure supporters cast a ballot.

The back-and-forth in the Trump camp leaves Republicans and Democrats alike wondering just how committed the candidate actually is to what has become accepted wisdom among political professionals. Some Republicans worry that Trump risks ceding potential advantages to likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton if he's not willing to invest the money required to keep updating the data, and then use it effectively.

"It's a big risk," said Chris Wilson, who ran an expansive data operation for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Trump's stiffest competition in the Republican primaries. Jeremy Bird, who worked for President Barack Obama's data-rich campaign, said: "Flying blind is nuts."

The use of data has evolved over the past several presidential campaigns into a shorthand for using information — starting with simple lists of potential voters, then mated with extensive details about their habits and beliefs — to guide a campaign toward its ultimate goal: the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

In his AP interview, Trump discounted the value of data: The "candidate is by far the most important thing," he said. He said he plans a "limited" use of data in his general election campaign and suggested Obama's victories — universally viewed by political professionals as groundbreaking in the way data steered the campaign to voters — are misunderstood.

"Obama got the votes much more so than his data processing machine, and I think the same is true with me," Trump said, explaining that he will continue to focus on his signature rallies, free television exposure and his personal social media accounts to win voters over.

Buzz Jacobs, who was on the losing end of Obama's success in 2008 as an aide to GOP nominee John McCain, said Trump oversimplifies the president's victories.

"We lost in large part because Obama's ability to use data was so much better than ours," Jacobs said.

According to South Carolina's Republican chairman, Matt Moore: "Elections to a great degree are won on ... that last 1 or 2 percent that shows up or stays home. That group on either edge turns out because of data and digital. That's a known fact."

Republicans and Democrats with experience running campaigns question why Trump would give up a chance to reinforce with data his ubiquitous presence on television and inarguable success with large-scale rallies — a platform of personality that Clinton has yet to match.

Bird, whose consulting firm now works for the Clinton campaign, said Trump is giving himself a false choice.

"At a big picture level, sure, Barack Obama got the votes — his bio, his policies, his ability to communicate," Bird said. "But we wanted to do everything we could to get him and get his message to the right people."

Jacobs, who worked this year for a former Trump rival, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, said Trump is an outlier in being uninterested in data. The RNC and private groups, such as the billionaire conservative activist brothers Charles and David Koch, have spent hundreds of millions on their data programs since Obama's election.

"It would be silly to leave those on the sidelines," Jacobs said.

To be sure, Trump has not wholly abandoned data. His campaign spending disclosures show payments to multiple data firms, and the campaign maintains contact information collected when voters register for tickets to his rallies.

Wiley, a recent addition to the Trump team who previously worked for the national party, said he is "working with the RNC, putting together a state-of-the-art program." He predicted it would be able to match what "Obama was able to do in 2008."

But Trump's in-house data shop is thin, and the candidate has said that he does not give priority to the ground game. Trump's most significant loss of the primary season came in the leadoff Iowa caucuses, a victory for Cruz that was largely credited to the Texas senator's sophisticated campaign effort to turn out voters.

Wilson said he used the Cruz campaign's data to run nightly "models" leading up to the caucuses, which predicted turnout and outcomes and allowed the campaign to adjust its approach every day.

That means if Wiley and Trump's other campaign staffers are able to persuade him to pay attention to the data, they'll also need to persuade him to raise and spend the money to use it effectively in competitive states.

"He has to be convinced," South Carolina chairman Moore said. Then again, he said, "We've all been wrong about Trump for pretty much this entire campaign."

___

Associated Press reporters Jill Colvin and Julie Pace in New York and Thomas Beaumont in Des Moines, Iowa, contributed to this report.


-- (c) Associated Press 2016-05-17

[Rykbanlor]

Trump is such a sweet man, it's truly heart warming to see the Whitehouse may soon be occupied by such a thoughtful moderate.

[user82374298374]

Trump is such a sweet man, it's truly heart warming to see the Whitehouse may soon be occupied by such a thoughtful moderate.

I support him precisely because he isn't a moderate, at least when it comes to immigration and trade.

[chilli42]

I have to agree with him in part. I worked all my life in an industry that prides itself in data driven decision making ... and the decision making was atrocious. If you listing to the data guru's you end up in the center serving up mediocrity. This is what has happened in US politics, candidates craft their platform and promises based on what is interesting to voters and what will annoy the least amount of people. It does get them elected but on a stack of lies they don't beleive in. You have to look at the data, interpret what it really means and come to a judgement about what you are going to do. What ever you think of Trump he is a great marketer and has lived with data his whole career. So far he has shown himself a master at understanding what voters in the US really want ... starting with the end of the Washington process, money influence and other parasites. I don't agree with much of what Trump says but kudos for being bold enough to craft a platform based on insight and not data.

[american12bthai]

he is afraid of data, as it will show his real values. China, himself, and Fkn Slts. Sure, data misleads sometime. but this isnt a war, or foreign operation, there is no "unuseful data" in this case. His FEAR of data is just one of his defensive lies.

[Skywalker69]

Trump is such a sweet man, it's truly heart warming to see the Whitehouse may soon be occupied by such a thoughtful moderate.

I support him precisely because he isn't a moderate, at least when it comes to immigration and trade.

Building walls create trade?

[keemapoot]

Yup, who needs facts, figures and data-driven decision making. Who needs science, math, reason, critical thinking or study of policy? Those things are for squares. Personality is the main thing we need in the leader of the free world. And, we need a really abrasive, abusive and boorish bully as our role model personality.

Perfect.

[GeorgesAbitbol]

Trump is such a sweet man, it's truly heart warming to see the Whitehouse may soon be occupied by such a thoughtful moderate.

I support him precisely because he isn't a moderate, at least when it comes to immigration and trade.

As he changes his mind like a weahtercock changes direction you shouldn't bet on such things, especially when those things are clearly impossible to put in place.

[Pinot]

Reality show stars don't rely on data.

[Jingthing]

Yup, who needs facts, figures and data-driven decision making. Who needs science, math, reason, critical thinking or study of policy? Those things are for squares. Personality is the main thing we need in the leader of the free world. And, we need a really abrasive, abusive and boorish bully as our role model personality.

Perfect.

Good. He's stupidly assuming the general election voters are the same loons as his xenophobic white supremacist republican base. Strong clues here he doesn't really even want to win. Good.

[dunroaming]

Trump doesn't understand data and cannot take the risk of being questioned on his policies mainly because he hasn't really got any. Preaching hatred is an easy call but it only takes you so far before you have to explain yourself. As soon as he was challenged about the ban Muslims rant he backtracked and said it was just an idea. The circus rolls on and I am loving it!!

[slipperylobster]

Trump is such a sweet man, it's truly heart warming to see the Whitehouse may soon be occupied by such a thoughtful moderate.

I support him precisely because he isn't a moderate, at least when it comes to immigration and trade.

Building walls create trade?

Building walls...has nothing to do with trade.

Your response is typical of anti trumpers who cannot understand that international trade has nothing to do with a wall put up on the mexican border.

foolish.

[slipperylobster]

Yup, who needs facts, figures and data-driven decision making. Who needs science, math, reason, critical thinking or study of policy? Those things are for squares. Personality is the main thing we need in the leader of the free world. And, we need a really abrasive, abusive and boorish bully as our role model personality.

Perfect.

Good. He's stupidly assuming the general election voters are the same loons as his xenophobic white supremacist republican base. Strong clues here he doesn't really even want to win. Good.

Trump does not want to win?

lol

craziest post of the year.

Actually..he is winning.

you are kind of lost in space.

[Jingthing]

Dude, I see trump as a kind of madman. Yes, I think he's conflicted about wanting to win. He must know he's not prepared to be president. He must now it's not as much fun as being a big businessman. So yes, he wants to win, but that is NOT the same thing as wanting to actually do the work of PRESIDENT.

[Srikcir]

Depending on data would make Trump committed to stategies that would be difficult to disavow. Without data he remains elusive.

Consider billionaire Mark Cuban's comment about Trump:

"he's like the guy who will walk into the bar and say anything to go home with someone."

[iReason]

Panetta: Don't gamble on Trump's 'crazy positions'

"(Former Secretary of Defense) Leon Panetta, who served as the Director of the CIA from 2009-2011, told CNN's Chris Cuomo on "New Day."

"Trump is talking about the world in a way that takes us back to the 1930's."

"He's talking all this isolationism, America first, he's talking about distributing A-bombs around the world — those are crazy positions," Panetta added,

referencing Trump's comments in March when he raised the possibility that Japan should arm itself with nuclear weapons to take on threats from North Korea.

Panetta said that Trump says things "almost as if he's not even thinking" and added that he's not sure what Trump stands for."

"Meanwhile, former CIA Director David Petraeus penned an op-ed in the Washington Post Friday, cautioning that "anti-Muslim bigotry aides Islamist terrorists."

http://edition.cnn.c...il_bottommedium

Well, Mr. Panetta, there are a lot of the Wall Street Funded Bloviator's lemmings who don't really know what he stands for either.

Given the fact, that he has retreated on all of his "promises" that he has "suggested"

I've read that he is being "educated" by the GOP Establishment 'tho...

[Skywalker69]

Trump is such a sweet man, it's truly heart warming to see the Whitehouse may soon be occupied by such a thoughtful moderate.

I support him precisely because he isn't a moderate, at least when it comes to immigration and trade.

Building walls create trade?

Building walls...has nothing to do with trade.

Your response is typical of anti trumpers who cannot understand that international trade has nothing to do with a wall put up on the mexican border.

foolish.

Foolish? Bringing all american companies back to US? What will a american produced Iphone cost? How do you think will buy it?

DT said China takes jobs from US why is he himself producing clothes in China for the american market as does his daughter.

About building a wall to Mexico, ever heard about tunnels?

[willyumiii]

Since when have Republicans been worried about facts?

[Berkshire]

Trump is such a sweet man, it's truly heart warming to see the Whitehouse may soon be occupied by such a thoughtful moderate.

I support him precisely because he isn't a moderate, at least when it comes to immigration and trade.

Cmon, you have no idea where Trump stands on anything. It changes day-to-day and will keep changing. So why exactly do you support him?

[ResandePohm]

Trump doesn't understand data and cannot take the risk of being questioned on his policies mainly because he hasn't really got any. Preaching hatred is an easy call but it only takes you so far before you have to explain yourself. As soon as he was challenged about the ban Muslims rant he backtracked and said it was just an idea. The circus rolls on and I am loving it!!

He is certainly making himself unpopular abroad