Do EXPATS have a future in Thailand 20 years from now?

[Suradit69]

8 hours ago, BudRight said:

 

It's actually not capitalism, it's protectionism that have caused price increases. Tearing down trade barriers would be politically impossible though I'm afraid - Thais just don't like competition.

" Thais just don't like competition. "

 

You really should listen to what's being said in the US, Britain, Europe and other parts of Asia. Competition for markets & labor, as well as restrictions on free movement of immigrants, suggest that a lot of governments are gearing up for increased isolationism. Most countries want an uneven playing field.

 

 

[Suradit69]

9 hours ago, cyberfarang said:

I personally think that 20 years into the future as far as expats are concerned moving to Thailand is going to be reserved for the idle rich, especially for those on retirement who get their incomes from abroad.

 

The banking financial system is going to change, exchange rates between the baht and other currencies are going to be low, could drop to under 20 baht to the £1. Thai bank interest rates maybe less than 1% as in the UK at the moment. The married to a Thai spouse and retirement stays present amounts of 400000 baht and 800000 baht will certainly increase within the next 20 years with a chance of grandfathering being discontinued. Inflation and the cost of living expenditure could increase 5 fold or even more as it has done in the last 20 years.

 

I doubt the immigration rules will change too much, it`s going to be finance that will determine who can afford to stay here and who can`t.

 

 

" I personally think that 20 years into the future as far as expats are concerned moving to Thailand is going to be reserved for the idle rich, especially for those on retirement who get their incomes from abroad. "

 

Yes, a lot of retirees here chose to retire at relatively young ages and with fairly liberal government and private pensions. The age at which westerners will be able to retire is bound to increase and the disposable income available to them decrease.  

Deciding to retire and move to Thailand at 60 on a fairly comfortable pension is an entirely different proposition from retiring at 70 or 75 on a shoestring.

[PomRakBKK]

3 hours ago, SoilSpoil said:

Some decisions in life require you to look ahead in time, such as buying a house, getting married and having kids. The perspective and scope for a 60 year old retiree with pension is completely different than a 28 year English teacher who fell in love with a Thai girl. It will be very difficult for the 28 year old to get settled here.

 

Not an english teacher here.. by far, but I came here at 20 - now I am here 10 years and married. 

We got a decent european car and a condo that is paid for. 

The outlook isn't that much different, just that we don't look 20 years ahead from now. It's bugging me in my current day to day life. 

I just came back from a business trip and while others passed me in the fast track line, the I/O was going through my passport like I was some sort of criminal. 

Everything we have is paid for in cash, all cash comes from abroad. Not taking anyones job and just contributing to the society and eco system by spending my money in Thailand. 

It is a scary thought that you can get refused entry at any given time - without reason, under the current martial law. 

I doubt much would change if I'd switch to an Elite Visa which cost a fortune for nothing (we don't play golf and the misses enjoys the spa on our on dime). Fast track at the airport is the same when flying Business or First class than on the Elite Visa, so even that won't change much in our situation. 

 

[Thaidream]

Here is my take on what a 20 year Thai future holds based upon being here 50 years-

-A foreigner will never, ever be able to own land.

-The exchange rate for the US Dollar will be 38-40/  British Pound -60. the Euro will not exist

-The basic Visa structure will be similar with the majority of foreigners staying under a retirement/marriage/or Elite Visa.  Tourist Visas will be restricted as well as the Visa Exempt be restricted. Many long term expats will have moved on to other countries or returned home to their birth country.

-Tourists to Thailand will have peaked   and tourism will be on a downward trend-  Westerners will hardly ever come and the vast majority will be Asians.

-The sex industry will be only a shadow of itself- Nana Plaza and Cowboy closed/Pattaya very low profile as Pattaya is mostly a resort for Thais and Chinese.

-Crime will be rampant because Isaan is still not industrialized and there are no other jobs except farming. A midnight curfew is in effect in large cities.

-The military or military oriented governments are very much in power.

-Thai people are more friendly to Westerners because there are fewer to be found and the Thais have grown tired of Chinese tourism.

-All Thai waters remain polluted and that has also contributed to the tourism decline.

-Western democracies are no longer totally democratic as socialism is spreading rapidly through Europe and America. The EU has folded as countries reinstate their own currencies. This also affects Western tourism to Thailand as both Europeans and Americans do not have the funds to travel.

-Thailand attempts to remain neutral as both America and Europe are in the throes of a cold war with China.

-The internet will be restricted; all telephones tapped and privacy a thing  of the past.

 

I hope I am wrong on  almost all of it.  The World itself is in decline and one reason is the unbridled greed of the wealthy who have pushed capitalistic democracy and globalization  as the World's savior when instead it has lead to the enslavement of mankind by driving down wages and opportunity.  My hope is that mankind wakes up and stops this madness before it sets off a chain of events that cannot be controlled.

 

[Enoon]

1 hour ago, JJGreen said:

 

Much easier to delegate it to you

 

You should be more concerned about what Thailand is going to be like sometime in the next 2 years.

[JAFO]

What I have never understood is why do Expats really care?  I mean if you are going to open up a business then maybe that question is pertinent.  The rest is moot.  I live life here like I did in my home country.  I never sat and wondered what it might be like in 20 years.  Everything changes all the time. You adapt to the environment or the situation just like anywhere else.

 

If your personal make up is a stringent and controlled life and change and uncertainty causes you to lose sleep then Thailand might not be a place for you.  Personally I love all the change and growth and little wars they have.  I have no stake in it.  Life is always an adventure here.

 

[Thaidream]

I have a stake in it because I have  a Thai family; children and grandchildren and I want them to have a better life than is available now.  Actually living in Thailand long term as a normal citizen does not involve the entertainment industry; going to the beach each day or what restaurant one is going to dine in.  Many of us want our families to have opportunities to be what they want to be. Unfortunately,  opportunity in  Thailand is not good and in fact in the rest of the World is on a downward trend. That is why there is much conflict everywhere. People are simply not being treated fairly or equitably or provided with opportunity.

[1FinickyOne]

10 hours ago, JJGreen said:

 

20 baht to the pound? What is the lowest historically? 

 

JJ, it is not really how much baht you get for your buck... it is how much buying power it comes with. Back in the 80s, it was pretty much 25-26 baht for a dollar, but things were so much cheaper that you got plenty for that 26 baht... the real measure of the exchange rate is the buying power... 

[smotherb]

If they raise the railings on high-rise balconies more expats will be here in 20 years. Of course, we all know the Thai ladies will become grossly overweight, be true to only one man, stop gambling, cook your favorite Western foods, and start nagging you everyday.

[Thaidream]

Ys, so absolutely true- it is the buying power that counts and I can honestly say that when a US Dollar bought 25 Baht to the Dollar the buying power was much greater than it is right now. And I would venture tosay that is true of other currencies. One of the main reasons for this is the downward trend on wages worldwide as a result of the concentration of overall wealth in the hands of a relatively few number of individuals and business entities.

[JJGreen]

31 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

 

JJ, it is not really how much baht you get for your buck... it is how much buying power it comes with. Back in the 80s, it was pretty much 25-26 baht for a dollar, but things were so much cheaper that you got plenty for that 26 baht... the real measure of the exchange rate is the buying power... 

Good point

[212Roger]

5 hours ago, anotheruser said:

 

This is very dependent upon how you live and has been discussed a million times already. Anything more than a Thai style way of living and Thailand becomes expensive very quickly.

Thailand is very cheap.  However, if you hit the bars and girls a couple of nights a week it can add up; I spend a lot more on beer and bar girls than rent and food.  Who wants to sit at home all day and all night?  You're in Thailand for Buddha's sake. 

[anotheruser]

I wasn't complaining just stating facts.

[sezze]

The money is certainly getting more expensive , but that is logical , if you imagine ( or remember ) that it was a 3th world country not so long ago .
 So , if that bothers you , i guess unless something happens ( i forsee a world worldwar again , and i predicted it in 2008 when the bankingcrisis started, and i feel closer everyday) we will not see change in that department ., you probably won't be staying here in let's say 10 to 15 year max .

The attitude against foreigners will not get any better also ...

Will i be living here in 20 years , unless that bad things happen and everything changes upsidedown , i do not think so ... but as far as prediction goes , it is very difficult to say .

[billd766]

10 hours ago, MissAndry said:

 

Only once a year? I try to get out once a month!

 

I haven't been out in 7 years and have no desire to do so. I did more than enough travelling in my working life to make up for staying in Thailand. I don't even like going to BKK and as for going to Pattaya that doesn't even raise any interest at all.

[The manic]

11 hours ago, Dexlowe said:

I'm not going to enjoy writing this post. But I have been experiencing a lot of antipathy towards me of late (not personal - towards all white western males). I live on the darkside of Pattaya - about 20 mins on the motorbike to Beach Rd. When I first moved here (and in the preceding couple of years), I thought this area was quite cool as it was fairly quiet and the people were friendly. Fast forward 5 years and I'm beginning to feel unwelcome, both on the darkside and in the Pattaya/Jomtien area. Whereas young Thais were mostly indifferent towards you in the past, now there is quite open disdain - even hostility in some cases. Of course, there are still many lovely Thai people around whom I enjoy meeting as I go about my daily chores. But the level of indifference/disdain/resentment is growing ever stronger - it's not my imagination, it's very palpable. I've lived in Thailand for 3 decades, so I think I have a reasonable "handle" on local conditions. 

 

So, how does this answer the OP's question? Unfortunately, I shall not be around to find out as I intend leaving soon. Part of my reason for going home (apart from wanting to spend my remaining years with family) is that I don't feel quite as comfortable as I did here, even going back just 5 years. There is a lot I still enjoy about living on the darkside, but I fear that the next time some young smart-asp decides to "buzz" the farang on his motorcycle (and put my life in danger) to prove he's the superior Thai male, then I might just snap. And get the sh1t kicked out of me. I can't live in a village like Mr VF above (sorry, mate - I'm a city slicker  ). So I don't see a comfortable or relaxed lifestyle ahead for us WWMs (white western males) in my area - and it's that lifestyle that I desire in my retirement.

If it's palpable how do you measure it? Are you sure you just did not notice it before? May I ask how often you leave LOS? I like a break every 3 months or so and get out of pattaya frequently to explore the rest of Thailand.  Believe me after a week in Issan or a weekend in a village you are reminded of How Absolutely Brilliant Bangkok and Pattaya are. Good luck enjoying a wet Wednesday night in the UK.

[pennine]

Predictions are always difficult, especially about the future.

[1FinickyOne]

If you want to talk about predictions, I was in Pattaya in 1974. It was a dusty little road with a few bungalows. I am sure if you told me then, it was going to get really built up in the future, I would have probably pictured a whole lot more bungalows. 

 

We tend to predict/imagine from what we have to deal with now. At the rate things are changing, 20 years from now could be really amazing... or not. 

 

And I am sure most of the changes will occur w/o input from me - the only thing I can control is my ability to deal with change as it comes.... I also expect this will get tougher as I get older... being elderly might be the toughest challenge of all. 

[LannaGuy]

34 minutes ago, billd766 said:

 

I haven't been out in 7 years and have no desire to do so. I did more than enough travelling in my working life to make up for staying in Thailand. I don't even like going to BKK and as for going to Pattaya that doesn't even raise any interest at all.

 

yup i believe that now go take your cocoa and sweet dreams

[Scotwight]

1 hour ago, JJGreen said:

Good point

 

1 hour ago, kenk24 said:

 

JJ, it is not really how much baht you get for your buck... it is how much buying power it comes with. Back in the 80s, it was pretty much 25-26 baht for a dollar, but things were so much cheaper that you got plenty for that 26 baht... the real measure of the exchange rate is the buying power... 

I do believe those economic fellas have come up with a way to measure that thing and it's called the cost of living index.  You can google it but today it is for example when compared to the USA.  http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_result.jsp?country=Thailand

Cost of living in Thailand is 41.90% lower than in United States (aggregate data for all cities, rent is not taken into account). Rent in Thailand is 61.08% lower than in United States (average data for all cities).

[Chapelroad]

The OP is a newbie, not happy with 7/11 burgers, or the fact that his 'bird' messes around with his tissues !

How anyone can take his posts seriously is beyond me !

 

I would suggest checking out your 'bird' before critising the 7/11 burgers.  

[Chapelroad]

7 hours ago, AlexRich said:

It's impossible to predict how Thailand will change in develop in the future, and what the impact of that will be on people who want to spend time here, retirees, digital nomads, pleasure seekers, travellers, etc. 

 

The bureaucracy appears to be increasing and the authorities are more strict with people who move in and out of the country, even the amount of time that you need to attend the language school has increased. I agree that visas can be a hassle, perhaps less so for a retired person who does not have to undertake visa runs. It is not as cheap to live here, especially if you are a Brit hit by a post-Brexit slump in Sterling. It's tough for many Thais too.

 

I'm not someone who wishes to stay here long term and I plan to retire in my home country or one with a similar culture to my own. So I work around the issues above and try to get the best from this experience - using visa runs to see other countries. As a non-Thai I feel pretty welcome here and have had good experiences on the whole. My favourite place was the Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai areas, I always felt safe in these areas. A place like Pattaya or even Bangkok has all the issues that bigger cities have and a traveller has to be a great deal more guarded in these areas.

 

As much as I have enjoyed the experience I will be in Europe by October. I may return to Thailand in the future but I would never settle here. As a foreigner, you have less (no) rights and are more vulnerable as you get older. Good luck to anyone who retires here but it is simply not for me.   

 

If you don't like the heat, get out of the kitchen.

Can you speak Polish ?

[anotheruser]

1 minute ago, Chapelroad said:

 

If you don't like the heat, get out of the kitchen.

Can you speak Polish ?

Mówię po polsku. what does that have to do with the price of rice in china?

[SoiBiker]

For the older ones, probably not. 

 

 

[anotheruser]

I still stand by my contention that the environment will become so bad eventually that people will leave voluntarily. It will be those that invested too much of themselves that have a difficult choice, but for new people the choice won't be so difficult.

Edited August 11, 2016 by anotheruser

[JJGreen]

19 minutes ago, Chapelroad said:

The OP is a newbie, not happy with 7/11 burgers, or the fact that his 'bird' messes around with his tissues !

How anyone can take his posts seriously is beyond me !

 

I would suggest checking out your 'bird' before critising the 7/11 burgers.  

 

And yet u follow me around the board relishing every morsel I write

[little mary sunshine]

If you can't afford to live in Thailand after

working for 35-40 years, there is something

wrong with your financial planning; "or"1. You

are one to the drunks that drank up everything

and really didn't work that much. "or"2. One of the

lazy, who wanted to retire at 45-49 y/o and now

because th pound is declining (and is expected

to lose another 16-20%)  have to pinch every Baht,

(go home a and work another 15-20 years); and

retire with 95-125K Baht/month.  Life is Great,

Here in The Land Of Smiles!!

[AlexRich]

22 minutes ago, Chapelroad said:

 

If you don't like the heat, get out of the kitchen.

Can you speak Polish ?

 

I've no idea what point you are trying to make? Are you just another 'thin-skinned' expat who can't stand to read anything written about your adopted home that is not overwhelmingly positive? 

 

If you can't stand debate, stay off discussion forums!

[AlexRich]

10 minutes ago, JJGreen said:

 

And yet u follow me around the board relishing every morsel I write

 

I think I'm his new favourite JJ ... you've got competition! :-)

[anotheruser]

22 minutes ago, little mary sunshine said:

If you can't afford to live in Thailand after

working for 35-40 years, there is something

wrong with your financial planning; "or"1. You

are one to the drunks that drank up everything

and really didn't work that much. "or"2. One of the

lazy, who wanted to retire at 45-49 y/o and now

because th pound is declining (and is expected

to lose another 16-20%)  have to pinch every Baht,

(go home a and work another 15-20 years); and

retire with 95-125K Baht/month.  Life is Great,

Here in The Land Of Smiles!!

 

At some point it isn't a question if you can afford to live here but a question if you can leave.