May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[SaintLouisBlues]

4 minutes ago, Grouse said:

The recent precipitous 20% drop will be attributed to what? 0.25% interest rate cut? Or, shot in the foot??

Given your claims you should be able readily to understand that one-to-one cause-and-effect relationships simply don't exist

[chiang mai]

46 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

So what you're saying is that the market (for the GBP) had factored Brexit in but the FTSE hadn't. Interesting

 

The UK FTSE is loaded with companies that earn money overseas hence the fall in Sterling value increases those earnings, so whilst Sterling fell the FTSE climbed,

 

 

[SaintLouisBlues]

Just now, chiang mai said:

The UK FTSE is loaded with companies that earn money overseas hence the fall in Sterling value increases those earnings, so whilst Sterling fell the FTSE climbed

The point the poster is making is that the fall in the GBP was foreseen by the market whereas the fall in the FTSE was not foreseen by the market

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

The point the poster is making is that the fall in the GBP was foreseen by the market whereas the fall in the FTSE was not foreseen by the market

 

The fall in GBP was not foreseen by the market, I merely wrote that the fall seen between September 2015 and the June 2016 was positioning, brokers, investors taking safe or speculative positions in advance of the vote, this as apposed to a broad based downturn in the value of GBP .

[SaintLouisBlues]

3 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

The fall in GBP was not foreseen by the market, I merely wrote that the fall seen between September 2015 and the June 2016 was positioning, brokers, investors taking safe or speculative positions in advance of the vote, this as apposed to a broad based downturn in the value of GBP .

So they positioned themselves in GBP but they didn't position themselves for the FTSE?

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

So they positioned themselves in GBP but they didn't position themselves for the FTSE?

 

I don't know, perhaps if you compare FTSE volumes and values against GBP/USD values over the same period you might see an answer.

 

The broader forex market anticipated a Sterling positive result from the referendum but clearly not everyone believed that, the evidence is that when the results turned towards Brexit the value of Sterling fell markedly. Ans since the broader market didn't believe that a Brexit vote would win there would have been little point in hedging bets beforehand on the FTSE although almost certainly some players did so. But again, without seeing those values and volumes it's impossible to set out precisely the relationship at a detail level.

 

Now, I've told you lots of things to explain that picture, things you already knew, so now go ahead and make the point you're so keen to make!

[chiang mai]

If you want to disagree with something, post an alternate point of view and explain it in detail.

 

If you want to act like a child by posting cartoons, showing no respect for other posters and generally and breaking forum rules, I'll happily report every post you make.

 

Your choice!

[Grouse]

39 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

Given your claims you should be able readily to understand that one-to-one cause-and-effect relationships simply don't exist

 

42 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

Given your claims you should be able readily to understand that one-to-one cause-and-effect relationships simply don't exist

 

Clearly future currency rates are non-causal. However, that does not mean there are not factors. IMHO 0.25% interest rate cut was not a significant factor and may be neutral or better considering the BoE was attempting to stave off recession.

 

Good you understand quantum mechanics as that implies you understand probability. Not much understanding of probability and statistics here ?

[SgtRock]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

And s far as downtrend goes: GBP was clearly down from September 2015 until the referendum but I suspect much of that was positioning in advance of the vote, otherwise there's no downtrend to be seen unless you go back to 1970's.

 

50 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

You may think that a forex "trend" spans whatever timescale you want it to, the forex market doesn't! Your rather meaningless graph shows the pair to be broadly flat since 1990, not that means much either.

 

 

You want to try again ?

 

The graph that your are so quick to try and ridicule debunks your claim about no downward trend since the '70's.

 

1985 & 2007 in particular.

 

 

[chiang mai]

4 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

 

 

You want to try again ?

 

The graph that your are so quick to try and ridicule debunks your claim about no downward trend since the '70's.

 

1985 & 2007 in particular.

 

 

 

Yet again you try to distort what posters have written!

 

READ what I wrote, I said UNLESS you go back to the 1970's!!!

 

And just so that you understand a little better, a trend in Forex terms is typically of limited duration, a 200 day moving average being one of the better gauges of direction, certainly not more than one year.

[Grouse]

https://www.creditwritedowns.com/2014/02/long-decline-great-british-pound.html

 

I post again for the hard of hearing

 

1976 is when we went cap in hand to the IMF

 

1985 was the end of the early 80s period which was characterised by a strengthening dollar. The Plaza accord reintroduced currency management and began a forced devaluation of the dollar

 

100 year ago it was 5 dollars to the pound.

 

Again, we are discussing the recent precipitate drop in Sterling and contributory factors.

 

The attached analysis is an overview. There are multiple complex reasons for currency movements.

Edited November 2, 2016 by Grouse

[Rimmer]

A couple of flames have been removed.

 

7) You will respect fellow members and post in a civil manner. No personal attacks, hateful or insulting towards other members, (flaming) Stalking of members on either the forum or via PM will not be allowed.
 

[chiang mai]

2 minutes ago, Grouse said:

https://www.creditwritedowns.com/2014/02/long-decline-great-british-pound.html

 

I post again for the hard of hearing

 

1976 is when we went cap in hand to the IMF

 

1985 was the end of the early 80s period which was characterised by a strengthening dollar

 

100 year ago it was 5 dollars to the pound.

 

Again, we are discussing the recent precipitate drop in Sterling and contributory factors.

 

Get with the program Grouse, we're discussing any and all avenues which may indicate to even the smallest degree that the recent fall in Sterling values was in fact due to anything other than Brexit - expect graphs showing phases of the moon, sun spot activity and the gammy leg of Mrs Mildred Warren of 26 Bessingby Way as all being responsible for this phenomena in one way or another.

[Grouse]

Just been on BBC World, recent fall is a "step change" not part of a trend according to BoE so will not affect future interest rate decisions....

[chiang mai]

On 10/31/2016 at 2:09 AM, Khun Han said:

Anyway, I'm sure you'll all be pleased to know that Blackpool is booming from 'staycations' as a result of Sterling's tumble :

 

http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-has-been-good-for-business-in-blackpool-10638253

 

For all my past sins I know find myself writing this from Bridlington, I'm here for a few days taking care of some legal business, after which I will run as fast as I can South and then East by a long way. And if Bridlington and Blackpool are in anyway similar and the former is also supposed to be benefiting from staycations, I can only pray to God that I never have to visit this h*ll on earth in the low season. It's a mixture of old peoples accommodation,  deserted gypsy run amusement arcades, dreadful pubs full of unemployables and overweight females even at lunch time and thirty five empty fish and chip restaurants. Exactly why people who live in the UK would come here for any reason of choice is beyond me, the idea that returning expats would come and live here after spending any time in Thailand is unimaginable - expect the suicide rate to skyrocket if this is their only option.

[SgtRock]

33 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

READ what I wrote, I said UNLESS you go back to the 1970's!!!

 

 

You should try heeding your own advice, and actually try reading.

 

Sterling was lower in '85 & '97 than in the '70's  Are you trying to say this did not happen ? Or were they just a dry run for the upcoming brexit referendum ?

 

Following  a low in the '70's of £ 1 - $ 1.52 approx.

 

1985 a low of £ 1 - $ 1.10 approx

 

Whilst the £ recovered somewhat and hovered around the £ 1 - $ 1.50 dollar mark for long periods of time.

 

2007 a low of £ 1 - $ 1.40 approx

 

2016 a low of £ 1 - $ 1 .22

 

Whatever way you want to crunch the numbers, that equates to a gradual slide from an historic low in the '70's of 1 - 1.52  to today's rate of 1 - 1.22.

[Grouse]

https://cereals.ahdb.org.uk/markets.aspx

 

UK milling wheat futures up 19%

 

I keep hearing that Hovis theme tune. " sit yersen down lad, I've got some nice brown bread and butter for your tea"

 

 

As this is from 1973 it's not advertising is it?

Edited November 2, 2016 by Grouse
Humour?

[Grouse]

18 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

You should try heeding your own advice, and actually try reading.

 

Sterling was lower in '85 & '97 than in the '70's  Are you trying to say this did not happen ? Or were they just a dry run for the upcoming brexit referendum ?

 

Following  a low in the '70's of £ 1 - $ 1.52 approx.

 

1985 a low of £ 1 - $ 1.10 approx

 

Whilst the £ recovered somewhat and hovered around the £ 1 - $ 1.50 dollar mark for long periods of time.

 

2007 a low of £ 1 - $ 1.40 approx

 

2016 a low of £ 1 - $ 1 .22

 

Whatever way you want to crunch the numbers, that equates to a gradual slide from an historic low in the '70's of 1 - 1.52  to today's rate of 1 - 1.22.

 

OK, I give up. You are absolutely correct ( linear regression ).

 

But don't apply for a job as a Forex dealer (tee hee!)

 

30 cents in 45 years......?

[SgtRock]

It would appear that productivity in the UK has largely been stagnant since 2007

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/carney-may-have-a-bigger-u-k-inflation-headache-than-the-pound

 

So nothing to do with Brexit ( Which hasn't happened yet ) but let's blame Brexit anyway.

 

The sooner that those that continually shout about the need for continued growth come to understand that growth is finite and will always come in fits and starts then the sooner it will be better for everyone.

 

 

[chiang mai]

27 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

You should try heeding your own advice, and actually try reading.

 

Sterling was lower in '85 & '97 than in the '70's  Are you trying to say this did not happen ? Or were they just a dry run for the upcoming brexit referendum ?

 

Following  a low in the '70's of £ 1 - $ 1.52 approx.

 

1985 a low of £ 1 - $ 1.10 approx

 

Whilst the £ recovered somewhat and hovered around the £ 1 - $ 1.50 dollar mark for long periods of time.

 

2007 a low of £ 1 - $ 1.40 approx

 

2016 a low of £ 1 - $ 1 .22

 

Whatever way you want to crunch the numbers, that equates to a gradual slide from an historic low in the '70's of 1 - 1.52  to today's rate of 1 - 1.22.

 

If I wanted to cherry pick dates the way you have I could easily make a case that the Pound was rising against USD until Brexit came along and crashed it. But that's the reason we have 200 day moving averages and similar so that silly people don't try and do silly things with things they don't understand!

 

Mar 11 1985 - 1.08

Fe 15 1993 - 1.45

Jul 21 2003 - 1.63

Mar 8 2006 - 1.89

Oct 15 2007 - 2.09

Nov 2 2016 - 1.22

 

Damn that Brexit!

 

Do you see now how ridiculous your argument is?

[Grouse]

18 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

It would appear that productivity in the UK has largely been stagnant since 2007

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/carney-may-have-a-bigger-u-k-inflation-headache-than-the-pound

 

So nothing to do with Brexit ( Which hasn't happened yet ) but let's blame Brexit anyway.

 

The sooner that those that continually shout about the need for continued growth come to understand that growth is finite and will always come in fits and starts then the sooner it will be better for everyone.

 

 

 

Yes, productivity is indeed stagnant and who do we blame for that? We have the pointy heads, the top universities, The City. So where's the investment in factories of the future a la Germany?

 

Our industrialists are just not investing. Is it greed? Is it bloody "shareholder value"? Is it taxation policy that discourages long term investment?

 

Interesting to note the steady rise in productivity during the preceding 10 years. Labour's benign influence?

 

As for the pursuit of long term growth; I really don't know. You would have to asking someone wiser than me ?

[SgtRock]

7 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

If I wanted to cherry pick dates the way you have I could easily make a case that the Pound was rising against USD until Brexit came along and crashed it. But that's the reason we have 200 day moving averages and similar so that silly people don't try and do silly things with things they don't understand!

 

Mar 11 1985 - 1.08

Fe 15 1993 - 1.45

Jul 21 2003 - 1.63

Mar 8 2006 - 1.89

Oct 15 2007 - 2.09

Nov 2 2016 - 1.22

 

Damn that Brexit!

 

Do you see now how ridiculous your argument is?

 

Nothing to cherry-pick. It is all there in black and white.

 

 

The one with the ridiculous argument is you

 

Let me remind you:

 

Quote

And s far as downtrend goes: GBP was clearly down from September 2015 until the referendum but I suspect much of that was positioning in advance of the vote, otherwise there's no downtrend to be seen unless you go back to 1970's.

 

''  otherwise there's no downtrend to be seen unless you go back to 1970's. ''

 

The downward trend has been ongoing since the '70's.

 

I will make it easy for you. Draw a straight line from '72 until today.

 

Above that line is good. Below that line is bad.

 

Not much above the line is there ?

[chiang mai]

4 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

Nothing to cherry-pick. It is all there in black and white.

 

 

The one with the ridiculous argument is you

 

Let me remind you:

 

 

''  otherwise there's no downtrend to be seen unless you go back to 1970's. ''

 

The downward trend has been ongoing since the '70's.

 

I will make it easy for you. Draw a straight line from '72 until today.

 

Above that line is good. Below that line is bad.

 

Not much above the line is there ?

 

Whoosh.........!

 

What parts of trend and 200 day maximum do you not understand!

 

Rhetorical of course. I'm going for a walk on the beach, it's a whopping 4 degrees here, I'll catch up with more of this silliness later!

[Grouse]

26 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

Nothing to cherry-pick. It is all there in black and white.

 

 

The one with the ridiculous argument is you

 

Let me remind you:

 

 

''  otherwise there's no downtrend to be seen unless you go back to 1970's. ''

 

The downward trend has been ongoing since the '70's.

 

I will make it easy for you. Draw a straight line from '72 until today.

 

Above that line is good. Below that line is bad.

 

Not much above the line is there ?

 

Try linear regression. Do you know what that means? Least squares and all that? 

 

It's very trendy ?

 

I am not getting at you but you really don't understand...

Edited November 2, 2016 by Grouse
Humour

[sandyf]

3 hours ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

The point the poster is making is that the fall in the GBP was foreseen by the market whereas the fall in the FTSE was not foreseen by the market

Currency markets and stock exchanges are like chalk and cheese, the former is influenced by perception and the latter more by physical results. Higher profits means higher dividends and increased demand for shares, pushing the price up.

Many companies are benefiting from the low pound giving a boost to the FTSE but unlikely to continue when companies dependent on exchange rates start posting results. Some companies have already issued profits warnings, Ryanair, Easyjet and BA being the most vocal.

[SheungWan]

2 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

For all my past sins I know find myself writing this from Bridlington, I'm here for a few days taking care of some legal business, after which I will run as fast as I can South and then East by a long way. And if Bridlington and Blackpool are in anyway similar and the former is also supposed to be benefiting from staycations, I can only pray to God that I never have to visit this h*ll on earth in the low season. It's a mixture of old peoples accommodation,  deserted gypsy run amusement arcades, dreadful pubs full of unemployables and overweight females even at lunch time and thirty five empty fish and chip restaurants. Exactly why people who live in the UK would come here for any reason of choice is beyond me, the idea that returning expats would come and live here after spending any time in Thailand is unimaginable - expect the suicide rate to skyrocket if this is their only option.

 

People return for a whole number of reasons, health and homesickness being a couple of them. What links all that to the thread is that we are now going through 'interesting times' at least as far as UK income earners are concerned. That means volatility. The guys predicting a bounce are just whistling their own tune. Better to hedge or anticipate against another 10%  drop in sterling. Any bounce above 45 baht take advantage and load up on some baht for future trips. Sorry about Bridlington. Its a bit outer-zoneish for me. But in the end it is home for others and that can trump an awful number of other factors.

Edited November 2, 2016 by SheungWan

[SheungWan]

7 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Currency markets and stock exchanges are like chalk and cheese, the former is influenced by perception and the latter more by physical results. Higher profits means higher dividends and increased demand for shares, pushing the price up.

Many companies are benefiting from the low pound giving a boost to the FTSE but unlikely to continue when companies dependent on exchange rates start posting results. Some companies have already issued profits warnings, Ryanair, Easyjet and BA being the most vocal.

 

Whatever predictions were made all that each individual has to do is examine what skin they have in the game, whether that is stocks or sterling. Those with zero stocks and all-in sterling have been whacked the most. So the question is, what to do now or plan for the next 1/2/3 years? Those decisions are going to be impacted by some degree of political malarkey over the Brexit process, so you pays your money and makes your choice.

[ilostmypassword]

7 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

Here it is here

 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/e8b14d60-3a36-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7

What you're referring to is equivalence.  And while back when that article was published a lot of hope was placed in it, it's pretty much gone now. Not only would it depend on EU approval, but if the UK ever wanted to change its regulatory system for the finance industry, even if it had been granted equivalence, it could lose it again. 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/londons-city-faces-a-post-brexit-dilemma-1477603209

[ilostmypassword]

6 hours ago, SgtRock said:

A think-tank that I actually agree with

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/nov/02/institute-for-economic-affairs-report-abolish-20-taxes-income-tax-15-per-cent

 

Couldn't agree more. The UK tax system is a joke, time to simplify it and get the tax system working for everyone, not just the few who can afford fancy tax experts to save them money and deny the UK revenues to make the UK great for everyone.

This is otherwise known as a flat tax. It is a great favorite of right wing economists because it would provide a huge tax break to the rich.

[ilostmypassword]

5 hours ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

You'll doubtless recall Keynes' comment, widely quoted (usually without attribution or context), "in the long run we are all dead". Anyone who is a follower of quantum mechanics (Heisenberg's uncertainty principle) and chaos theory must understand that a year is about as far out as any reasonable person (ie. not a politician making promises, or a poster on ThaiVisa) should be looking

 

Anybody who understands quantum theory would understand that it has nothing to do with the behavior of complex systems above the atomic level.  Unless you're talking about specialized devices such as quantum computers. Certainly quantum theory has nothing to do with economics. And its temporal considerations are in fractions of fractions of fractions of seconds.  

Edited November 2, 2016 by ilostmypassword