AP-GfK Poll: Clinton appears on cusp of commanding victory

[webfact]

AP-GfK Poll: Clinton appears on cusp of commanding victory

By JULIE PACE and EMILY SWANSON

 

NEW YORK (AP) — Hillary Clinton appears on the cusp of a potentially commanding victory over Donald Trump, fueled by solid Democratic turnout in early voting, massive operational advantages and increasing enthusiasm among her supporters.

 

A new Associated Press-GfK poll released Wednesday finds that Clinton has grabbed significant advantages over her Republican rival with just 12 days left before Election Day. Among them: consolidating the support of her party and even winning some Republicans.

 

"I'm going to pick Hillary at the top and pick Republican straight down the line," said poll respondent William Goldstein, a 71-year-old from Long Island, New York, who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. "I can't vote for Trump."

 

Overall, the poll shows Clinton leading Trump nationally by a staggering 14 percentage points among likely voters, 51-37. That margin is the largest national lead for Clinton among recent surveys. Most have generally shown her ahead of Trump for the past several weeks.

 

The AP-GfK poll finds that Clinton has secured the support of 90 percent of likely Democratic voters, and also has the backing of 15 percent of more moderate Republicans. Just 79 percent of all Republicans surveyed say they are voting for their party's nominee.

 

With voting already underway in 37 states, Trump's opportunities to overtake Clinton are quickly evaporating — and voters appear to know it. The AP-GfK poll found that 74 percent of likely voters believe Clinton will win, up from 63 percent in September.

 

Troubles with President Barack Obama's signature health care law have given Trump a late opening to warn voters against putting another Democrat in the White House. And the poll was taken before the government projected sharp cost increases.

 

But even Republicans question whether the rising price of insurance premiums is enough to overcome the damage the businessman has done to his standing with women and minorities.

 

"Donald Trump has spent his entire campaign running against the groups he needs to expand his coalition," said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster who advised Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's failed presidential campaign. Ayres called Trump's campaign "strategically mindless."

 

Even if Clinton's support plummets in the contest's closing days, or she's unable to motivate strong turnout in her favor, it's not clear that Trump could marshal the resources to take advantage and collect enough states to win the 270 electoral votes needed to claim the White House.

 

Clinton's team has overwhelmed Trump's campaign in its effort to turn out voters.

 

An Associated Press review of campaign finance filings finds that her campaign, the Democratic National Committee and Democratic parties in 12 states have more than three times as many paid employees as Trump's campaign and the main Republican organizations supporting him. Clinton and Democrats had about 4,900 people on payroll in September, while Trump and Republicans had about 1,500.

 

Both sides benefit from legions of volunteers knocking on doors and making phone calls to voters, as well as outside forces such as unions and super PACs pitching in on voter turnout operations. But key Republican groups such as the ones funded by the conservative billionaire Koch brothers are sitting out the presidential race because of their distaste for Trump, further extending Clinton's likely advantage at getting out the vote.

 

The strength of the Democratic turnout effort appears to be paying dividends in states where voting is underway. Nationwide, more than 12 million voters have already cast ballots, according to data compiled by the AP, a pace far quicker than 2012.

 

In North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump, Democrats lead Republicans in early ballots, 47 percent to 29 percent. The Democrats hold an advantage even though turnout among blacks, a crucial voting bloc for Clinton in the state, is down compared to this point in 2012. Strategists in both parties attribute the lower black turnout in part to an early reduction in polling stations, though more sites are to open in the days leading up to Nov. 8.

 

In Florida, a perennial battleground, Democrats have drawn even to Republicans in votes cast, reaching that milestone faster than in 2012. Traditionally, Republicans do well initially with mail-in ballots. But Democrats were able to keep it close, putting Clinton in position to run up the score during in-person voting.

 

Clinton also appears to hold an edge in Nevada and Colorado based on early returns. David Flaherty, a Republican pollster based in Colorado, said the data signal "a Democrat wave in the making."

 

Buoyed by support from white voters, Trump looks strong in Ohio, Iowa and Georgia, a Republican state where Clinton is trying to make inroads. But wins in those states would still leave him well short of the required 270 Electoral College votes.

 

Trump's top advisers have conceded in recent days the businessman is trailing Clinton. But they point to his large rallies and enthusiastic supporters as an indication he could be poised for an upset. Clinton draws smaller crowds to her events and has been perceived by some voters as the lesser of two evils.

 

"We have a couple of different paths to get to 270 and we're actively pursuing them," Kellyanne Conway, Trump's campaign manager, told MSNBC on Monday.

 

The AP-GfK poll suggests Clinton's advantage is about more than just voter dislike for Trump. Clinton supporters are more likely than his backers to list their candidate's leadership, qualifications for the presidency and positions on issues as major factors in their support.

 

Although voters are still more likely to have an unfavorable than a favorable view of Clinton, her ratings have improved slightly in the past month. Forty-six percent of likely voters now say they have a favorable view of the former secretary of state, up from 42 percent in September. Just 34 percent of all likely voters have a favorable view of Trump.

 

Trump's unpopularity has opened surprising opportunities for Clinton as the White House race barrels toward its finish. Her campaign is actively competing for Arizona, a state that has voted for the Democrat in only one presidential race since 1952, and she is also spending money in Georgia, a reliably Republican state over the past two decades.

 

Both states have been on Democrats' wish lists in recent years given their increasingly favorable demographics, though the party had little expectation they might flip this year. Hispanics are a growing share of the Arizona electorate, while Georgia is on its way to becoming a majority-minority state.

 

The real electoral map surprise this year is Utah, one of the most conservative states in the country. Utah's heavily Mormon population has turned its back on Trump, providing an opening for third-party candidate and Utah native Evan McMullin to carry the state. Stripping Trump of six Electoral College votes Republicans have never had to worry about would further narrow his already slim path to victory.

 

With so much appearing to lean in their favor heading into Election Day, the Clinton campaign's biggest concern is that some supporters take victory for granted and don't show up to vote.

 

"Donald Trump said he could still win, and he could if our people get complacent," Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri said.

___

The AP-GfK Poll of 1,546 adults, including 1,212 likely voters, was conducted online Oct. 20-24, using a sample drawn from GfK's probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 2.75 percentage points, and for likely voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

 

Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn't have access to the internet were provided access for free.

___

Online:

Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com

 

-- © Associated Press 2016-10-27

[jaidam]

LA Times poll showing Trump in the lead again after a wobbly week. I think Trump will win this election convincingly. I say this because I am aware of the crowds both parties generate at their rallies. Trump gets tens of thousands- every time - genuine fans, Clinton a couple dozen- seemingly paid for their attendance. There is no genuine interest in Clinton beyond paid patsies(who I will concur are making one heck of a lot of noise).

 

[AYJAYDEE]

3 minutes ago, jaidam said:

LA Times poll showing Trump in the lead again after a wobbly week. I think Trump will win this election convincingly. I say this because I am aware of the crowds both parties generate at their rallies. Trump gets tens of thousands- every time - genuine fans, Clinton a couple dozen- seemingly paid for their attendance. There is no genuine interest in Clinton beyond paid patsies(who I will concur are making one heck of a lot of noise).

 

 

would you be giving odds on a bet?

 

[Emster23]

I find it very disturbing that states with early voting are releasing results now rather than waiting til 8 pm election day. Those tallies can have all sorts of influence on who goes to vote, or stays home and skips it, plus effect on voters in other states decisions on who and whether to vote. I can see no good from this sort of action, and only negatives. It muddies the already muddy waters even more

[i claudius]

Not being American i can only give an opinion from the sidelines , Trump i think would not be a very good president , like Obhama was not up to much , but Hillary , God help you , it would be like putting Dianne Abbott into the leadership ,a f--ing disaster .

[Gulfsailor]

1 hour ago, Emster23 said:

I find it very disturbing that states with early voting are releasing results now rather than waiting til 8 pm election day. Those tallies can have all sorts of influence on who goes to vote, or stays home and skips it, plus effect on voters in other states decisions on who and whether to vote. I can see no good from this sort of action, and only negatives. It muddies the already muddy waters even more

The states are not releasing results. The early voting stats come from polls. 

But I do agree that these so called exit polls can influence an election. That's why in most countries with elections exit polls are not to be made public until the voting ends. 

[Pinot]

54 minutes ago, i claudius said:

Not being American i can only give an opinion from the sidelines , Trump i think would not be a very good president , like Obhama was not up to much , but Hillary , God help you , it would be like putting Dianne Abbott into the leadership ,a f--ing disaster .

 

Madam President has a nice ring to it. Get use to it. 

[Silurian]

2 minutes ago, Gulfsailor said:

1 hour ago, Emster23 said:

I find it very disturbing that states with early voting are releasing results now rather than waiting til 8 pm election day. Those tallies can have all sorts of influence on who goes to vote, or stays home and skips it, plus effect on voters in other states decisions on who and whether to vote. I can see no good from this sort of action, and only negatives. It muddies the already muddy waters even more

The states are not releasing results. The early voting stats come from polls. 

But I do agree that these so called exit polls can influence an election. That's why in most countries with elections exit polls are not to be made public until the voting ends. 

 

I believe what is being released is the number of Democrats voting vs the number of Republicans voting not the actual ballot selection. They will correlate this data as Democrats will vote for Hillary and Republicans will vote for Trump.  

[Alive]

Hillary = more of the same apathy for the masses and all for the too-big-to-fail Wall St. and 1%

 

Trump= shakeup but higher potential for nuclear winter. But Trump might want revenge on other 1% so that could be good

 

Another view:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[i claudius]

2 hours ago, Pinot said:

 

Madam President has a nice ring to it. Get use to it. 

 

She will be your president not mine ,you get used to it

[Chicog]

 

[Berkshire]

3 hours ago, i claudius said:

Not being American...

 

You should have just left it at that, because that's really all you seem to know. 

[sgtsabai]

FiveThirtyEight has the Trump at a 16% chance of winning. They take into account all polls and in the latest newsletter, today, I did not see anything about the LA Times. Take it for what it's worth. The US  and the world is screwed one way or the other. Wall Street criminals/banksters, the military/spy/industrial/Congressional cabal and the gods of war are all smiling.

[dunroaming]

It is never over until the actual results are in.  Polls are for dancing round and really shouldn't be taken seriously.

 

The fact that one of these two will end up as the President  of the USA is something that should be taken seriously. 

God help America!

 

 

[Pinot]

19 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

It is never over until the actual results are in.  Polls are for dancing round and really shouldn't be taken seriously.

 

The fact that one of these two will end up as the President  of the USA is something that should be taken seriously. 

God help America!

 

 

 

Don't throw HRC into the Trump dumpster. She's an experienced capable leader who will do well by America. 

[dunroaming]

Pinot, you know I share your views over Trump and there is no doubt that Clinton is the best option here.  However I cannot share your enthusiasm for her even though I am happy to be proved wrong!

[Publicus]

14 hours ago, jaidam said:

LA Times poll showing Trump in the lead again after a wobbly week. I think Trump will win this election convincingly. I say this because I am aware of the crowds both parties generate at their rallies. Trump gets tens of thousands- every time - genuine fans, Clinton a couple dozen- seemingly paid for their attendance. There is no genuine interest in Clinton beyond paid patsies(who I will concur are making one heck of a lot of noise).

 

 

Every political professional who has counted votes in numerous elections will tell you to never gauge the election result based on crowds, whether the crowds at rallies are small, medium in size or large. Ignore it.

 

Only an amateur or a novice would ever predict or project an election result based on crowd attendance at political rallies. It's fool's gold. 

[Publicus]

2 hours ago, dunroaming said:

It is never over until the actual results are in.  Polls are for dancing round and really shouldn't be taken seriously.

 

The fact that one of these two will end up as the President  of the USA is something that should be taken seriously. 

God help America!

 

 

 

Fear not, it's hopeless but not serious.

[Berkshire]

33 minutes ago, Publicus said:

 

Every political professional who has counted votes in numerous elections will tell you to never gauge the election result based on crowds, whether the crowds at rallies are small, medium in size or large. Ignore it.

 

Only an amateur or a novice would ever predict or project an election result based on crowd attendance at political rallies. It's fool's gold. 

 

It's amazing how Trump's loonie followers will repeat what he says, even though there's no truth nor intelligence involved.  By jaidam's logic, Beyonce should be President because she draws big crowds. 

[jaidam]

5 hours ago, Berkshire said:

 

It's amazing how Trump's loonie followers will repeat what he says, even though there's no truth nor intelligence involved.  By jaidam's logic, Beyonce should be President because she draws big crowds. 

I was tempted to post an image showing the crowds at Trumps recent rallies -more than 50,000 at Florida, and then Clinton litterally getting a couple dozen that appear to be insiders. But i would be accused of trolling the images look so ridiculous. That is the reality, Trump has connected with the segment of the voters that has been villified, criticized and is being gradually eliminated by PC govt - the whites. And in spite of Obamas and Clinton swamping the country with foreigners there are still plenty of white Americans primarily confined to rural areas.

 It is easy to swallow up the msm lies, and start panicking that our Hillary could lose, with the violent lashing out at all things Trump just as we have seen. The limeys saw exactly the same leftist frothing over Brexit and we all know what happened when it went to the poll.

 Beyonce is not running for president, if she had run she would in all likelihood be the frontrunner.

[AYJAYDEE]

43 minutes ago, jaidam said:

I was tempted to post an image showing the crowds at Trumps recent rallies -more than 50,000 at Florida, and then Clinton litterally getting a couple dozen that appear to be insiders. But i would be accused of trolling the images look so ridiculous. That is the reality, Trump has connected with the segment of the voters that has been villified, criticized and is being gradually eliminated by PC govt - the whites. And in spite of Obamas and Clinton swamping the country with foreigners there are still plenty of white Americans primarily confined to rural areas.

 It is easy to swallow up the msm lies, and start panicking that our Hillary could lose, with the violent lashing out at all things Trump just as we have seen. The limeys saw exactly the same leftist frothing over Brexit and we all know what happened when it went to the poll.

 Beyonce is not running for president, if she had run she would in all likelihood be the frontrunner.

 

so youre predicting a trump win?? lol

 

[simple1]

1 hour ago, AYJAYDEE said:

so youre predicting a trump win?? lol

 

 

Actually, he's leveraging this topic, as he does many, many times, to evangelise his white supremacist and "right of centre" ideology.

[jaidam]

5 minutes ago, simple1 said:

 

Actually, he's leveraging this topic, as he does many, many times, to evangelise his white supremacist and "right of centre" ideology.

You are taking this off topic and making it personal, as usual, but my wanting an equal footing for whites, and equal application of law and order for ALL citizens(including whites) makes me fair minded - not a white supremacist. Again nothing "right of center" about wanting an end to double standards. You know this already, don't you.

[simple1]

8 minutes ago, jaidam said:

You are taking this off topic and making it personal, as usual, but my wanting an equal footing for whites, and equal application of law and order for ALL citizens(including whites) makes me fair minded - not a white supremacist. Again nothing "right of center" about wanting an end to double standards. You know this already, don't you.

 

NO. You are an admirer of far right politics who has been suspended many times for making OTT supportive posts of the far right.

[AYJAYDEE]

48 minutes ago, jaidam said:

You are taking this off topic and making it personal, as usual, but my wanting an equal footing for whites, and equal application of law and order for ALL citizens(including whites) makes me fair minded - not a white supremacist. Again nothing "right of center" about wanting an end to double standards. You know this already, don't you.

 

poor whitey, so hard done by in America!! lol

[Publicus]

 

Reiterate, Donald Trump and his movement are the manifestation of a uniquely American fascism.

 

While fascism of any kind is an ideology, and Americans historically have found ideology impractical, esoteric, objectionably elitist, there is a working belief and value system that defines fascism of any kind. 

 

Historical fascism in Europe first manifested in Italy as a March on Rome in 1922. It then expanded -- one could say spread -- across the continent. Here are some of the tenets of classic fascism...

 

Nationalism

Totalitarianism

Anti-democratic thought

Personality cult

Dictatorship

Militarism

Direct action

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definitions_of_fascism

 

Robert Paxton of Columbia University is a leading American researcher of 21st century fascism...

 

A form of political behavior marked by obsessive preoccupation with community decline, humiliation or victimhood and by compensatory cults of unity, energy and purity, in which a mass-based party of committed nationalist militants, working in uneasy but effective collaboration with traditional elites, abandons democratic liberties and pursues with redemptive violence and without ethical or legal restraints goals of internal cleansing and external expansion.[30]

 

Unique to American fascism however is an international isolationism, explicit racism to include persons with disabilities, opposition and rejection of respectable language of all kind, the supremacy of the male, the mangling of the 2nd Amendment from establishing a militia in the defense of the state into the radical notion citizens have the right to weaponise to protect themselves against their evil government and fellow citizens alike....and so much more that is mundane and banal to the extent we hardly notice it as a uniquely 21st century phenomenon central to the extreme right. 

 

Donald Trump and his "deplorables" is one way to state it. The old white guy and the undereducated young white guy.

 

Recommended:

 

A must-read Businessweek piece explains how Donald Trump’s campaign has “three major voter suppression operations under way” aimed at three groups: idealistic white liberals, young women, and African Americans.

 

Rick Hasen: “But the Trump campaign also has promoted ‘poll watching’ and other operations which many see as a sign of voter intimidation. Trump has engaged in so much of this activity, that the DNC is trying to use it to extend the [U.S. District Court] consent decree against the RNC for voter intimidation activity for up to 8 more years. These brazen statements from the Trump campaign marginally increase the chances of success of that effort, because they confirm that the campaign has an interest in making it harder for likely Democratic voters, including minority voters, to come out to the polls and vote.”

 

 

The contest for Potus in the final week-plus is not tightening. Only Donald Trump and the uniquely American deplorables are tightening. 

 

A new CNBC poll finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points nationally, 43% to 34%.

 

A new Fox News poll shows Clinton up by just three points, 44% to 41%.  

(Even if this were the case, 3 points is more than enough. Analysing it statistically, however, the high probability (80%) is that HRC would have the margin of error in her favor, which would be plus three more percent = 47%, which Fox and its pollster does not advise us of. Simultaneously, subtract 3 points from Trump = 38%. I individually have for a long time expected Trump to get 38% of the popular vote plus or minus 1 point on election day.)

 

For comparison, the HuffPost Pollster polling average shows Clinton leading by eight points, 49% to 41%.

 

Complementing this are some state polls released today:

 

Texas: Trump 45%, Clinton 42%, Johnson 7% (UT/Texas Tribune)

Texas: Trump 45%, Clinton 38%, Johnson 7% (Austin American Statesman)

 

Florida: Clinton 43%, Trump 39%, Johnson 6% (University of North Florida)

 

Pennsylvania: Clinton 46%, Trump 39% (NYT/Siena) 

 

 

Moreover, this is not Brexit in even the remotest of ways. Trying to compare the Brexit referendum in UK to the general election of Potus in a race involving Donald Trump is a sub-brain activity.

Edited October 28, 2016 by Publicus
Typo

[keemapoot]

Responding to Pub's post above on the points of fascism, which I think are fascinating about the Trump movement:

 

Historical fascism in Europe first manifested in Italy as a March on Rome in 1922. It then expanded -- one could say spread -- across the continent. Here are some of the tenets of classic fascism...

 

Nationalism - Happily, the majority of the US population is migrating nicely demographically to ensure the kind of nationalism driven by Trump's core supporters never can take hold.

 

Totalitarianism - This is one of Trump's triggers he pulls often to elicit fanatic response, especially with respect to law enforcement and immigration. He does understand the ugly underbelly of controlling relatively stupid people.

 

Anti-democratic thought - This constant rejection of the US democratic process, rigging the elections, rigging the polls, conspiracies everywhere, it's very dramatic, but also very dangerous that these weak-minded Trumpsters don't even realize they are engaging in this very anti-democratic thought. 

 

Personality cult - Classic, but this is the one that puzzles me. Trump is highly unlikable, despicable really, has no sense of humor, completely transparently self-serving, and immodest. If this is a personality to be worshiped, that speaks volumes about the desperately low level of his supporters.

 

Dictatorship - "I am the only one who can do it," "I am the only one who can fix this," I can teach the military experts a lesson about military strategy in Aleppo,"  etc., etc..  a one man show. amazing. He is a one-time show for sure.

 

Militarism - Classic again, and in keeping with Trump's persona and plan.

 

Direct action - Trump loves the idea of single-handedly fixing the rigged system in Washington. He is a man of action. As a bragging billionaire, he is a superhero to largely unsuccessful white men who think somehow if they emulate him, they too can get the supermodel and gold-plated penthouse. Yup. Action figure works too.

[Publicus]

Excellent poot to put meat on the bones, if I may say, and in your own words.

 

As to the election outcome, there's probably little doubt HRC will command the Electoral College Vote, which is technically all that matters.

 

I'll however be looking at the popular vote, nationally and by individual state. I want to see Trump get 38% of the popular vote because that would leave him and the right sector with almost nothing to build on. (It would be hard for even him to manage much less than that.)

 

However, if Trump collects 40% or even 43% of the popular vote, then it's likely we won't have experienced the last of it at the polls in coming elections. It's a long way for extremism in the USA to get to 50%, but 43% is a lot closer to it than is 38%.

 

Fingers crossed and knock on wood.

[thaihome]

1 hour ago, Publicus said:

Excellent poot to put meat on the bones, if I may say, and in your own words.

 

As to the election outcome, there's probably little doubt HRC will command the Electoral College Vote, which is technically all that matters.

 

I'll however be looking at the popular vote, nationally and by individual state. I want to see Trump get 38% of the popular vote because that would leave him and the right sector with almost nothing to build on. (It would be hard for even him to manage much less than that.)

 

However, if Trump collects 40% or even 43% of the popular vote, then it's likely we won't have experienced the last of it at the polls in coming elections. It's a long way for extremism in the USA to get to 50%, but 43% is a lot closer to it than is 38%.

 

Fingers crossed and knock on wood.

 

Though I agree wholeheartedly with both you and keemapoot's posts and the threat of American fascism,  my worry is that just as in 1964 Goldwater got just above 38% of the vote, this was followed first by Nixon 4 years later and his southern strategy that transformed the republican party into the racist based it is today and then by Reagan in 1980 who today is still venerated by the right wing.  

 

I worry that with a smarter, smoother candidate that still appeals to that 38% and fools another 15% there could be a resurgence of the  uniquely American fascism. Never forget, these people elected George W. Bush twice.

TH 

[keemapoot]

46 minutes ago, thaihome said:

 

Though I agree wholeheartedly with both you and keemapoot's posts and the threat of American fascism,  my worry is that just as in 1964 Goldwater got just above 38% of the vote, this was followed first by Nixon 4 years later and his southern strategy that transformed the republican party into the racist based it is today and then by Reagan in 1980 who today is still venerated by the right wing.  

 

I worry that with a smarter, smoother candidate that still appeals to that 38% and fools another 15% there could be a resurgence of the  uniquely American fascism. Never forget, these people elected George W. Bush twice.

TH 

 

Yes, excellent post. Though changing daily, it appears that Goldwater might retain the title of biggest loser, with Trump as a close second. That is unfortunate if it happens, because it will not result in the mandate and put-down necessary of this dangerous disease. And, you are right, a smoother, more polished professional who can remember a few lines of actual policy might still be able to bring this base to orgasm again. However, the GOP should be sufficiently split and soiled from all this to not be able to reconstruct in its current form, so I think the chances of a more charming fascist are probably remote.