Many constructions are left half finished since Russians left . very sad.

[sanemax]

44 minutes ago, Langsuan Man said:

No,  the solution to the problem is to require developers to post a non refundable bond to insure the completion of any project started 

Or, the developers burrow the money from the bank, build the buildings and then sell them and then pay the money back to the bank

[Langsuan Man]

2 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Or, the developers burrow the money from the bank, build the buildings and then sell them and then pay the money back to the bank

The banks are smarter than that, very few of these projects are financed by banks these days, it is usually "hot" money that seeds them

[JSixpack]

1 hour ago, Asiantravel said:

is it doom and gloom to simply point out that this same scenario is all around Asia not just in Thailand and not just in Pattaya i.e. an unsurpassed level of building and development based on the availability of cheap money without any consideration to due diligence or the normal rules of supply and demand?

Yup, 'cause you have no evidence that it's unsurpassed and without any consideration. Classic exaggeration, my man--and ignorant of course :)

 

Quote

 

and the BBC have simply exposed the inconvenient truth is that this country has nothing like an unbiased and independent judicial system so in any legal dispute involving property it can easily end up being a case of heads I win tails you lose. Why on earth would any sane and rational person want to put their money into a property market that doesn't even have a decent legal system to back it?

 

Similarly with nothing like and doesn't have a decent legal system. Actually it's good 'nuff for most purposes, hence it's mostly inexperienced renters who complain about it. If you really, really believed it, then you wouldn't be driving or even walking around in Pattaya. Incidentally, another major inverse indicator, one of several, that could work well in concert with the Pattaya Doom Indicator (PDI^©) would be the Pattaya Condo Glut Indicator (PCGI^©), tracking the erratic outbursts of bewilderment, foreboding, sour grapes, and scaremongering by room renters with regard to Pattaya's condos. Unlike the PDI^©, this indicator is backed by actual impressive stats: nothing less than the count of condo lights on at night. And these can be blessed by the chants of the Ocean 1 Chorus and (cough) recaps of BBC exposés.

 

Alas, further discussion of the PCGI^© will have to wait for another day.

 

Yeah, guy comes over to a Third World country, puts money on some off-plan development he's never seen, he's obviously taking a risk--how big depends on his pile. We tend here, not surprisingly, to imagine such investors are all Kiss eaters staying a flop house on Soi Buakhao.

 

But there's actually little complaint from the thousands of owners living happily enough (they don't need to be ecstatic, for what they paid and are paying in taxes & fees vs what they'd pay in Blighty) in their condos--which they may never try to sell anyway and don't care if they profit or not--though they might. :)

 

Pointing to this case or that case can be done most anywhere about anything; the exception doesn't prove the rule, you see. One of the fave doomster fallacies here, so useful for oracular posturing, is simply the

 

Just In Case Fallacy

 

I've reminded you of it previously but I do believe it's too good to give up. At any rate your 'pinions, macroeconomic analysis, and concerns have all been aired and discussed in this most recent CONDO GLUT/FOOLS BUY REAL ESTATE thread, to which I refer you now:

 

this is what is also behind the facade of the Pattaya condominium market?

 

While we wait. :)

 

[JSixpack]

48 minutes ago, Langsuan Man said:

The banks are smarter than that, very few of these projects are financed by banks these days, it is usually "hot" money that seeds them

 

Riviera Group signs 920 million baht construction loan with SCB

[sharecropper]

53 minutes ago, JSixpack said:

 

Riviera Group signs 920 million baht construction loan with SCB

 

Brilliant - for such a Serial Pedant, you seem to have failed to read three important words in Langsuan Man's post, notwithstanding your typically florid comments to Asiantraveller taking him to task on his use of English.

 

I'll help, highlighting in bold the words you may have missed:

 

The banks are smarter than that, very few of these projects are financed by banks these days, it is usually "hot" money that seeds them.

 

So thanks for posting the Riviera/SCB news, as it simply confirms not contradicts Langsuan man's comments.

 

[JSixpack]

1 hour ago, sharecropper said:

 

Brilliant - for such a Serial Pedant, you seem to have failed to read three important words in Langsuan Man's post, notwithstanding your typically florid comments to Asiantraveller taking him to task on his use of English.

 

I'll help, highlighting in bold the words you may have missed:

 

The banks are smarter than that, very few of these projects are financed by banks these days, it is usually "hot" money that seeds them.

 

So thanks for posting the Riviera/SCB news, as it simply confirms not contradicts Langsuan man's comments.

 

 

No, you see I posted a mere link w/ no comment as a combination Rorschach and IQ test for you. Hence it didn't claim to contradict or even be inconsistent w/ Langsuan Man's post--as I wouldn't be so stupid as to imagine it did or is necessarily. :)

Edited February 27, 2017 by JSixpack

[Asiantravel]

2 hours ago, JSixpack said:

Yup, 'cause you have no evidence that it's unsurpassed and without any consideration. Classic exaggeration, my man--and ignorant of course :)

 

 

 

 I guess it depends on what constitutes " evidence " to you................................

 

Singapore

 

Singapore property may be heading for long-term drop in value ...

 

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion/singapore-property-may-be-heading-for-long-term-drop-in-value

 

Malaysia

 

Bubble on the horizon as demand falters

 

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Economy/Bubble-on-the-horizon-as-demand-falters

 

Vietnam

 

Oversupply sparks fresh bubble fears – VietNam Breaking News

 

https://www.vietnambreakingnews.com/2017/01/oversupply-sparks-fresh-bubble-fears/

 

Cambodia

 

Prominent property developers downplay sliding real estate outlook ...

 

http://www.phnompenhpost.com/post-property/prominent-property-developers-downplay-sliding-real-estate-outlook

 

South Korea

 

After building boom, South Korea girds for housing glut | Reuters

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-housing-glut-idUSKCN1130X3

 

Taiwan

 

World's Worst Property Market Confronts Taiwan's New President ...

 

India

 

Real estate outlook 'negative' for 2017; home sales to drop 20-30%: Fitch

 

http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/residential/real-estate-outlook-negative-for-2017-home-sales-to-drop-20-30-fitchreal-estate-outlook-negative-for-2017-home-sales-to-drop-20-30-fitch/55703814

 

China

 

Why a Chinese Real Estate Bubble Could Bring Down the Global Economy

 

http://fortune.com/2016/11/02/china-housing-bubble/

 

Edited February 27, 2017 by Asiantravel

[JSixpack]

1 hour ago, Asiantravel said:

 

 I guess it depends on what constitutes " evidence " to you................................

 

 

Hittin' at a straw man, Jack, just wasting time. Strawman Fallacy You see, nobody disagrees there's a glut. Been a glut; been overbuilding & oversupply in various sectors, no question. But unsurpassed goes back, oh, a couple hundred years or so. :) Without any consideration is nonsense. Maybe it was considered. You have no idea how much it was considered or how many additional projects were not started owing to that consideration. Just sloppy thinking, exaggeration, and hot air. Similarly the meaning and ultimate results of the oversupply--during what period of time.

 

For the TVF economist, everything's static except for the unstoppable Downhill Spiral. In reality, conditions, markets, gov'ts, and people change and adapt. For example, the pace of building in PTY is now slowing, as well it should. Thailand got a lil' nervous back in '97 and changed the condo law. 

 

Anyway, I already predicted the dire future years ago probably before you'd yet finished Dire Prophecies 101 (should have been part of the course, actually, classic text):

 

Have you ever seen Pattaya so empty of tourists?

 

But you made ALL your same ol' points in your last CONDO GLUT thread (and others) and merely concluded what all the other CONDO GLUTTERS have over the decades, though with greater pretension. Got it; got the BBC man, that's critical. Now given that I've answered your questions earlier and you're not listening but still arguing fallaciously, hence dithering, I'm bowing out to let you enjoy chanting your miserable chant. In our renters you'll always have an agreeable audience. Hope you enjoyed the attention. Cheers!

 

 

Edited February 27, 2017 by JSixpack

[swissie]

Nevermind glut or no glut. LEGAL CERTAINTY is the issue at the end of the day ! How many times has a Farang Investor successfully won a court-case in Thailand involving RE fraud ?

 

If "legal certainty" is of little concern to a Farang Investor, why not invest in the Congo, Gambia or eastern Timbuktu ?

 

Cheers.

[thaibeachlovers]

Same thing happened back in the "crash" last century. Bangkok had loads of skeleton buildings. Some still haven't been finished or demolished.

Even further back, the Hopewell project pillars still line some Bkk roads.

[thaibeachlovers]

20 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

The solution to this problem is move the Thai ownership for condos to 30%, pass this idea onto you know who and can have it for free and be a hero everywhere.

Fortunately the Thais aren't so stupid as to do that ( hopefully ). Just as they won't allow foreign speculator scum to buy up Thai land and inflate prices beyond the ability of Thais to buy ( as is happening in my unfortunate country ), they are looking after the Thai people, and not farangs silly enough to want to make a profit by speculating on Thai property.

[johng]

16 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Hopewell project pillars still line some Bkk roads.

Yes the world famous Thai  "Stonehenge"

[Ramen087]

12 hours ago, swissie said:

Nevermind glut or no glut. LEGAL CERTAINTY is the issue at the end of the day ! How many times has a Farang Investor successfully won a court-case in Thailand involving RE fraud ?

If "legal certainty" is of little concern to a Farang Investor, why not invest in the Congo, Gambia or eastern Timbuktu ?  Cheers.

The only example I can think of is in a book titled 'the entrepreneur' written by Bill Heinecke... Bill is a guy who came to Bangkok as a teenager and eventually became chairman of minor corp. Early on a thai national committed a fraud against him regarding sale of land, as written in his book. He took the case to court and eventually he did win, but it took fifteen years. And I believe if the timeline is correct, it was during those fifteen years that BH renounced his USA citizenship and became a thai nationalized citizen. So this may or may not qualify as per the previous post, but I hope it is close enough.

Edited February 28, 2017 by Ramen087

[LongTimeLurker]

22 hours ago, Asiantravel said:

 

Vietnam

 

Oversupply sparks fresh bubble fears – VietNam Breaking News

 

https://www.vietnambreakingnews.com/2017/01/oversupply-sparks-fresh-bubble-fears/

 

 

https://www.vietnambreakingnews.com/2017/01/oversupply-likely-to-plague-vietnams-rubber-industry-for-years/

 

What does an oversupply in the VN rubber market have to do with condos?

[LongTimeLurker]

On 2/26/2017 at 8:27 PM, Kwasaki said:

Yeah go on blame the Russians everyone else is. 

I was talking to a local developer who said their 2 main causes of cash flow problems are

 

1. The Russian Rouble devaluation which has hit the Russian buyers

2. Unemployment in the O&G industry which has hit other expat buyers

[Allstars]

3 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

I was talking to a local developer who said their 2 main causes of cash flow problems are

 

1. The Russian Rouble devaluation which has hit the Russian buyers

2. Unemployment in the O&G industry which has hit other expat buyers

3. Gbp crash

 

4. World wide economic crisis

 

5. Thai Baht artificial kept high

 

6. Military which grabbed power and have no intention to leave any time soon.

 

Shall I go on?

[LongTimeLurker]

18 minutes ago, Allstars said:

3. Gbp crash

 

4. World wide economic crisis

 

5. Thai Baht artificial kept high

 

6. Military which grabbed power and have no intention to leave any time soon.

 

Shall I go on?

Well I'm sure the developer knows who his customers are.

[Asiantravel]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

https://www.vietnambreakingnews.com/2017/01/oversupply-likely-to-plague-vietnams-rubber-industry-for-years/

 

What does an oversupply in the VN rubber market have to do with condos?

I didn't post your link ?  If you recheck my post you will find I posted this link...............which has everything to do with the residential property market

 

 

https://www.vietnambreakingnews.com/2017/01/oversupply-sparks-fresh-bubble-fears/

 

Oversupply sparks fresh bubble fears

 

Quote

 

According to figures from Jones Lang LaSalle Vietnam (JLL), around 63,800 apartments will be completed in Ho Chi Minh City over the next three years, in Hanoi, this number will be more than 61,000 units.

The Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA) said that the city’s districts 1, 2, 4, 9, Binh Thanh and Thu Duc will all see a large number of luxury apartments going up.

Major realty developers in the luxury segment include Dai Quang Minh, Vingroup, Novaland, Nam Long, Hung Thinh, Him Lam, and Phu My Hung.

The HoREA said that due to the sharp increase of supply in the next three years, a number of factors could cause oversupply, potentially leading to a bubble in the real estate market.

 

 

[Asiantravel]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Well I'm sure the developer knows who his customers are.

did the developers know who their customers were before the market crash in 1997?

[champers]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

https://www.vietnambreakingnews.com/2017/01/oversupply-likely-to-plague-vietnams-rubber-industry-for-years/

 

What does an oversupply in the VN rubber market have to do with condos?

Should that read condoms?

[scubascuba3]

Fortunately the Thais aren't so stupid as to do that ( hopefully ). Just as they won't allow foreign speculator scum to buy up Thai land and inflate prices beyond the ability of Thais to buy ( as is happening in my unfortunate country ), they are looking after the Thai people, and not farangs silly enough to want to make a profit by speculating on Thai property.

Using the Golden Tulip example discussed, only 30% of Thai quota has been taken up, this may have caused the whole condo project to stall. This isn't good for foreigners or Thais. By reducing the level to 30% projects can kick off again. I don't expect you to agree or it to actually happen. Maybe Thais have realised there is very little likelihood of growth and the promised rent yields is just a joke.

[pegman]

On February 27, 2017 at 0:45 AM, scubascuba3 said:

The solution to this problem is move the Thai ownership for condos to 30%, pass this idea onto you know who and can have it for free and be a hero everywhere.

No, lower prices so more members of Thai society can afford them. Anyone who has put down $$$ on these spec condos are reckless or did zero due  diligence. A search of this forum gives plenty of examples of foreigners losing their entire stakes in simular projects. As for single guys keep in mind that the guy who runs Tulip wants to get rid of those things we come here for. Check him out on you tube saying Pattaya needs to be completely cleaned up so it can become Miami Beach and his high end hotels can flourish. I hope to hell The Waterfront takes him down.

[BruceMangosteen]

3 hours ago, pegman said:

I hope to hell The Waterfront takes him down.

 

Hasn't it already taken him down? or is it someone else's money that's been lost?? 

[Kwasaki]

17 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

I was talking to a local developer who said their 2 main causes of cash flow problems are

 

1. The Russian Rouble devaluation which has hit the Russian buyers

2. Unemployment in the O&G industry which has hit other expat buyers

Yeah it was only joke thing,  l watch RT international news channel and it quite funny the things Russia gets blamed for.

Al-Jazeera is a laugh too in contrast to RT. 

[LongTimeLurker]

23 hours ago, Asiantravel said:

I didn't post your link ?  If you recheck my post you will find I posted this link...............which has everything to do with the residential property market

 

 

https://www.vietnambreakingnews.com/2017/01/oversupply-sparks-fresh-bubble-fears/

 

Oversupply sparks fresh bubble fears

 

 

 

The link you originally posted opens the page that I posted the link for.

[LongTimeLurker]

23 hours ago, Asiantravel said:

did the developers know who their customers were before the market crash in 1997?

Yes

[scubascuba3]

Maybe that's where the problem lies, 49% foreign ownership sold out and only 21% of the 51% thai ownership has sold. So its the Thais, not the Russians.

I see someone is trying to sell their Golden Tulip condo on bahtsold. The advert is as if the project is going as planned and will be finished in 2017. Some sucker might fall for it who isn't on the ground

[gk10002000]

On ‎2‎/‎26‎/‎2017 at 0:38 AM, kannot said:

Close to Hua  Hin mile after mile of shophouses, most empty, yet they still build them, stupidity knows  no bounds..money to burn more money than sense?

Not necessarily money to burn, but I would guess at least 50% are moderate scams where foreign investors' money was taken but the projects are slowed down, delayed, more money is asked for etc..

[Asiantravel]

18 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

I see someone is trying to sell their Golden Tulip condo on bahtsold. The advert is as if the project is going as planned and will be finished in 2017. Some sucker might fall for it who isn't on the ground

if the seller continued to go ahead giving the impression there were no more potential hurdles ahead I think the buyer would be able to subsequently have the contract rescinded on the basis of it being fraudulent misrepresentation

 

Quote

 

 

Thailand Criminal Code

 

Section 341. Fraud

Whoever dishonestly deceives a person with the assertion of a falsehood or the concealment of the facts which should be revealed, and, by such deception, obtains a property from the person so deceived or a third person, or causes the person so deceived or a third person to execute, revoke or destroy a document of right, is said to commit the offence of cheating and fraud.

 

 

[morrobay]

http://www.nestarealty.com/en/Property/North-Beach-13786  

 

And then there is North Beach Condo , Soi 22 Naklua. Just North of Dusit Thani. From adverts you would think they are move in ready. Only if you fancy a vacant lot, The only construction completed

was the fancy promo boxy building that is now in  abandoned   disrepair.