It's official - Thai real estate bubble pops.

[KittenKong]

1 hour ago, Number 6 said:

I've had the thought for years and someone has posted similar, with the financial outflows from China and all the black money that needs a home here - does anyone get the impression that this is truly what is propping up the condo markets?

 

Currently it's the Chinese. A few years ago it was the Russians. Before that it was Europe.

 

Yes, the condo market in tourist areas in Thailand has indeed been supported by various movements of black (or at least dark) money for many years.

[Naam]

On 10/15/2017 at 7:13 PM, Naam said:

On 10/15/2017 at 3:00 PM, Number 6 said:

Miami is cheaper.

Mogadishu, Mazar-e-Sharif and Kinshasa are cheaper.

i forgot Jalalabad where you can always find special offers.

[cheeryble]

On October 17, 2017 at 9:49 AM, KittenKong said:

 

Currently it's the Chinese. A few years ago it was the Russians. Before that it was Europe.

 

Yes, the condo market in tourist areas in Thailand has indeed been supported by various movements of black (or at least dark) money for many years.

 

I previously told of a friend.......interested in a condo for his own use......going to the big new condo on the Superhwy and being told they were sold out. On asking about the one they were just starting work on nearby he was told it was half sold already.

He had no reason to not tell me the truth, is a decent chap, and on driving down the Super at night recently I noticed a fair number of lights on.

I was surprised.

I was more surprised on bumping into a young female friend who used to work in our coffee shop after finishing at CMU.

Turned out she was working selling condos.....I won't mention the name as I'm slightly confused about which was which. The Treasure were in the conversation I know that.

What amazed me was one was sold out, and the other had 11(out of 150?) units left which she had details of in her phone and the unsold units were largely on the second or low floor.

She also spoke of a friend doing the same thing in a new condo off Nimmanhemin. I know the building but don't recall the name without looking it up. That was also sold out or nearly so.

She wasn't trying to sell me anything knew i wasn't interested anyway but i take an interest.

 

Again, I was surprised at this speed of sale.

 

She said they were being bought by Thais. 

 

[KittenKong]

I saw those new high-rises when I was there recently. There aren't many high-rises in Chiang Mai and I can easily see the attraction of them to anyone who likes a decent view as I do. Lack of a nice view is what puts me off a lot of low-rise condos in CM.

[cheeryble]

11 hours ago, KittenKong said:

I saw those new high-rises when I was there recently. There aren't many high-rises in Chiang Mai and I can easily see the attraction of them to anyone who likes a decent view as I do. Lack of a nice view is what puts me off a lot of low-rise condos in CM.

I've got to say I'm very happy CM seems to be enforcing the height restrictions in central areas. Noting above x metres high is allowed with x metres of a wat, so the whole central area in the moat and nearby is safe (apparently the Amora just outside the moat slipped through the net). All the way up the Huay Kaew Rd has been tested as the new Amari is noticeably no higher than the old one, and the big field west of Hillside 4 someone attempted to build high and was thwarted in no uncertain manner.

[Senechal]

41 minutes ago, cheeryble said:

I've got to say I'm very happy CM seems to be enforcing the height restrictions in central areas. Noting above x metres high is allowed with x metres of a wat, so the whole central area in the moat and nearby is safe (apparently the Amora just outside the moat slipped through the net). All the way up the Huay Kaew Rd has been tested as the new Amari is noticeably no higher than the old one, and the big field west of Hillside 4 someone attempted to build high and was thwarted in no uncertain manner.

 

This is a double edged sword and it's why CM will always be a traffic nightmare.  Forced low population density means sprawl. And sprawl means cars.

 

Many people mistakenly think dense cities are somehow less environmentally friendly than sparse cities. The opposite is true. The greatest damage you can possibly do to the environment in urban planning is to encourage suburban sprawl. 

 

(Dense) city dwellers use less gas, use less electricity, produce less garbage and are less likely to own vehicles.  Dense cities also easily make the jump to mass transit. Sprawling (less dense) cities are carbon monoxide producing, wasteful, ecological disasters -- and have a hard time adding mass transit.

 

Add to that the fact that CM already has some of the worst air quality in Thailand and the results are not pretty. 

 

If they want CM to matter in 50 years, they need to kill the height limits.

 

 

Edited November 7, 2017 by Senechal

[KittenKong]

5 hours ago, Senechal said:

This is a double edged sword and it's why CM will always be a traffic nightmare.  Forced low population density means sprawl. And sprawl means cars.

......

Add to that the fact that CM already has some of the worst air quality in Thailand and the results are not pretty.

If they want CM to matter in 50 years, they need to kill the height limits.

 

I liked CM when I was there recently. I liked the climate, I liked the proximity of various hills and mountains, I liked the moat and the walls and I liked the wide selection of restaurants everywhere. I liked the river though its colour reminded me of .... well, I wont say what it reminded me of. I liked that I could walk down a road without being confronted by hookers, raucous music, sleaze and mouth-breathers. I even sort of liked the superhighway which did make travelling around the perimeter quite straightforward. In fact I liked CM enough to quite fancy living there.
However what put me off was the appalling traffic (apparently much worse than Pattaya), the knowledge that at certain times of year there are major air pollution issues, and the apparent difficulty of finding a nice condo building with nice views.

[OneZero]

KittenKong,

As usual your observations are spot on.  Fifteen nyears ago (probably as recently as 10 years ago) prior to the condo boom the appalling traffic was not noticable.  Folks were constantly bragging on the internet about how great Chiang Mai was (& it was) & the mass migration to Chiang Mai started.  

PS, Yes avoid Chiang Mai in March for the pollution, and probably in April as well for the heat without cloud cover, & especially so if you are not fond of the insane Chiang Mai Songkran madness. 

Edited November 8, 2017 by OneZero
Added comment

[cheeryble]

Yeah but now we've got great cakes great cheese great everything and the walks and rides up the mountain start right there, doesn't that compensate for a bit of fug for a month or so?.

I remember with fondness how little traffic there was 15 years ago.....as I can avoid rush hour no big deal it aint the least like BKK......'It may not be nice but it's a sign of some sort of success.

On yer bike! (except in Songkran)

 

ps if there's a traffic jam it's here on Thaivisa often unusable for me

Edited November 8, 2017 by cheeryble

[trogers]

12 hours ago, Senechal said:

 

This is a double edged sword and it's why CM will always be a traffic nightmare.  Forced low population density means sprawl. And sprawl means cars.

 

Many people mistakenly think dense cities are somehow less environmentally friendly than sparse cities. The opposite is true. The greatest damage you can possibly do to the environment in urban planning is to encourage suburban sprawl. 

 

(Dense) city dwellers use less gas, use less electricity, produce less garbage and are less likely to own vehicles.  Dense cities also easily make the jump to mass transit. Sprawling (less dense) cities are carbon monoxide producing, wasteful, ecological disasters -- and have a hard time adding mass transit.

 

Add to that the fact that CM already has some of the worst air quality in Thailand and the results are not pretty. 

 

If they want CM to matter in 50 years, they need to kill the height limits.

 

 

And rename the city CM Dubai?

[smutcakes]

SET issued a notice today that Sansiri are carrying out DD on acquiring the Nimit Langsuan project and remaining units of Ritz Mahan from Pace.

[trogers]

6 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

SET issued a notice today that Sansiri are carrying out DD on acquiring the Nimit Langsuan project and remaining units of Ritz Mahan from Pace.

Why? Pace is cashing out of a booming market?

[smutcakes]

3 minutes ago, trogers said:

Why? Pace is cashing out of a booming market?

Because Pace over extended themselves and cannot repay their borrowings. I believe the sharks are circling around D&D as well.

[trogers]

24 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Because Pace over extended themselves and cannot repay their borrowings. I believe the sharks are circling around D&D as well.

Financing cost in the stock market is only a third of that from banks. 

 

Why would they be unable to reap profits from selling developed residential units in an ever growing and booming property market to repay debts?

[smutcakes]

Just now, trogers said:

Financing cost in the stock market is only a third of that from banks. 

 

Why would they be unable to reap profits from selling developed residential units in an ever growing and booming property market to repay debts?

I don't know. Why don't you ask them on their website? I am sure they would have thought of that if it was a possibility. At least for Nimit they are 95% sold.

 

Maybe they overpaid for Dean & Deluca, perhaps the CUBE is a failure, perhaps they are very badly run, perhaps Mahasamutr has not been selling? Perhaps they borrowed far to much and expanded far to quickly.

[Coconut007]

On 11/8/2017 at 8:30 AM, KittenKong said:

 

I liked CM when I was there recently. I liked the climate, I liked the proximity of various hills and mountains, I liked the moat and the walls and I liked the wide selection of restaurants everywhere. I liked the river though its colour reminded me of .... well, I wont say what it reminded me of. I liked that I could walk down a road without being confronted by hookers, raucous music, sleaze and mouth-breathers. I even sort of liked the superhighway which did make travelling around the perimeter quite straightforward. In fact I liked CM enough to quite fancy living there.
However what put me off was the appalling traffic (apparently much worse than Pattaya), the knowledge that at certain times of year there are major air pollution issues, and the apparent difficulty of finding a nice condo building with nice views.

Interesting how people see thinks differently. I went CM for three months to experience it, because of the /everywhere/ how amazing CM is.... Well I didn't like anything that would possibly make me think of living there. Unless you are on 3000THB a month rent budget.

[KittenKong]

12 minutes ago, Coconut007 said:

Interesting how people see thinks differently. I went CM for three months to experience it, because of the /everywhere/ how amazing CM is.... Well I didn't like anything that would possibly make me think of living there. Unless you are on 3000THB a month rent budget.

 

I dont quite see what one's budget has to do with it and I didnt notice that Chiang Mai was unusually cheap.

 

If you dont like CM I wonder what sort of place you do like?

[inThailand]

IMHO the best thing about living up north is the cool winter weather and a change from the constant 34-36 down south.

[trogers]

22 minutes ago, inThailand said:

IMHO the best thing about living up north is the cool winter weather and a change from the constant 34-36 down south.

Just a couple of months at year's end/beginning. Come March and it will be hotter than down south...

[trogers]

On 11/11/2017 at 7:14 PM, KittenKong said:

 

I dont quite see what one's budget has to do with it and I didnt notice that Chiang Mai was unusually cheap.

 

If you dont like CM I wonder what sort of place you do like?

He likes sea breeze all year round. That's why he is in Chonburi.

Edited November 13, 2017 by trogers

[KittenKong]

38 minutes ago, trogers said:

He likes sea breeze all year round. That's why he is in Chonburi.

 

Is that a good reason not to see anything at all desirable in CM? And what, if anything, does the 3000B budget mentioned have to do with a sea breeze?

 

Doesnt make a lot of sense to me.

[lkn]

1 hour ago, KittenKong said:

Is that a good reason not to see anything at all desirable in CM? And what, if anything, does the 3000B budget mentioned have to do with a sea breeze?

I think Chonburi = Pattaya and “sea breeze” is an euphemism.

[trogers]

 

[Delight]

All has gone quiet of the Orion Pattaya Condominium front

Cranes and workers have left the site

All that is left is the land and a very ugly 4 floors of the 1^st fix.

[trogers]

3 hours ago, Delight said:

All has gone quiet of the Orion Pattaya Condominium front

Cranes and workers have left the site

All that is left is the land and a very ugly 4 floors of the 1^st fix.

A household name in Russia just became a household name in Pattaya

 

Which they didn't need 3 decades to achieve.

[trogers]

The trend line of property prices in Thailand

 

 

[Jsinbkk]

PACE Development's stock is collapsing. Who knew people didn't want to spend 750$ a sq foot for a Bangkok condo?

 

 

 

 

https://normanobserver.com/pace-development-corp-pcl-pace-decline-3-03-on-nov-26/

 

 

[trogers]

43 minutes ago, Jsinbkk said:

PACE Development's stock is collapsing. Who knew people didn't want to spend 750$ a sq foot for a Bangkok condo?

 

 

 

 

https://normanobserver.com/pace-development-corp-pcl-pace-decline-3-03-on-nov-26/

 

 

Because at such a price, rental yield would be less than 3%, in a market where mortgage rates are 6-7%.

[Destiny1990]

On 11/14/2017 at 5:35 PM, trogers said:

 

Robert Kiyosaki is a wise man!

[trogers]

8 hours ago, trogers said:

Because at such a price, rental yield would be less than 3%, in a market where mortgage rates are 6-7%.

Rental yield helps to indicate your position in a property cycle