34 minutes ago, JAG said:

There is no doubt that this evaporating influence and power worries the junta, even if they cannot understand how to counter it. Pronouncements about "lack of order", as well as revealing a total lack of understanding of the situation are also symptoms of that worry. They should be very very worried!

Their worries were manifested in the constitution that was written to maintain military dominance.  I too think that the military influence and power is declining. I feel that the new power is also fearful of the military becoming too powerful as reverence to him has not yet resonated with the people. Also the Thaksin's factor that gave rural poor a voice in the governing of the country. The rural majority Thais no longer will be passive and allowed the military to dominate. They held back in the last coup out of respect to the unwell high office. The current junta has really shoot themselves on the foot with the failure on reforms that were promised and internal corruptions. Their prolonged tenure simply frustrate lots of their supporters and will not be so forthcoming with military dominance. The social media which Thais are most active by global standard has gave the rural poor excess to real time news and has dramatically changed politics. I fear the next coup will unlikely to be peaceful. 

 

1 hour ago, MaxLee said:

How about never-ever-dever

The Nation missed "Prayut threatens not to call an election this year ‘unless public order prevails’" - Jan. 1, 2018

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30335144

 

In The Nation's "Shifting Goalposts" that you duplicated quotes Prayut:

"While making his latest promise about the election date, however, Prayut also warned that it would also depend on the situation at the time. “I am not making any threats. Let’s see what happens when the ban on political activities is lifted,” http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30339817

 

In other words, the exact election date may change again, ie., from February 2019. Now Prayut is reinforcing his caveat that the February 2019 election date might become TBD.

 

29 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

The Nation missed "Prayut threatens not to call an election this year ‘unless public order prevails’" - Jan. 1, 2018

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30335144

 

In The Nation's "Shifting Goalposts" that you duplicated quotes Prayut:

"While making his latest promise about the election date, however, Prayut also warned that it would also depend on the situation at the time. “I am not making any threats. Let’s see what happens when the ban on political activities is lifted,” http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30339817

 

In other words, the exact election date may change again, ie., from February 2019. Now Prayut is reinforcing his caveat that the February 2019 election date might become TBD.

 

And still the Thais (in their tens of MILLIONS) go on taking it all. They are being played for fools by the junta - surely everyone can see that by now? It's as obvious as the nose on my face that THERE IS NOT GOING TO BE ANY GENUINE ELECTION.

 

So, Thais: you either carry on muttering and grumbling (behind your hand) - and then kowtowing and wai-ing and grovelling before any representative of illegitimate Authority (as is your usual pathetic way of proceeding) - or you can actually DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT ALL ! We are well past the eleventh hour by now. The writing is on the wall for all to see ...

 

 

47 minutes ago, FunkyDunky58 said:

So this 'leader' suppresses free speech, bans political gatherings, imprisons dissenters, fails to deal with corruption in his own ranks, constantly lies about the timing of the election, introduces a constitution that is far from democratic and protects his own political aspirations, and then blames the people who are sick of him and his government and want a return to proper elected leadership. Pathetic.

In a nutshell mate. Whilst asking Thai society to do what is "needed to achieve the goal" of a democratic government, I question if he is doing what is needed himself.

They continue to the preparation to be longer in power, I'm sure that even 2019 - 2020 - 2021... will be no election...

5 hours ago, YetAnother said:

more threats based on paranoia and mysterious, perceived, trumped-up threats to our beloved country

Ever wondered "who" might be promoting the "lack of order" as it ensure nothing in the way of elections will come about.

7 hours ago, webfact said:

November this year, not in February next year as Prayut has most recently promised.

nuff said

He is right, the country can't be democratically ruled with all the undisciplined rabble wanting to vote, sorry folks, you will just have to wait until you learn to love the army and learn to obey your natural masters who know what is good for us (I mean you)

3 hours ago, tukkytuktuk said:

People with good intentions make promises. People with good character keep them.

Pinocchio is a persistent liar  who will pull any dirty trick to stay in power by fair means or foul.   He sees himself as the country's saviour and is a legend in his own mind !!

8 hours ago, webfact said:

He added that the military could not be separated from the NCPO, because the two bodies were indivisible. The military and the people were “also one”, he added.

 

The first sentence I believe to be correct...

 

The second sentence, not sure about that...

 

Interesting thread!

 

There is one question that I think is important, but hasn't really been mentioned yet; what happens to the military if they don't 'win' the next election and retain the Prime Ministership?

 

To me, a 'win' for the military can occur many different ways, but it must be viewed as a legitimate victory (however it might occur) by a large majority of the population, including and especially by many of the political classes. 

 

I see three general/possible outcomes;

1. Prayut becomes the next PM after an election which is viewed generally as free and fair. Or perhaps a better way to say that is 'free and fair enough'. Yes, the thought is revolting to me, but it is possible; no one has absolute certainty on how the new electoral system is going to break/shake down.
2. Prayut becomes the next PM through the use of the special Appointed Senate powers. I do not see a way that this could be seen as legitimate, no matter what arguments are put forth. This would lead to... uncertainty (for want of a better way to put it)? And I don't know where that uncertainty would lead...
3. Another party, based on the numbers likely 'Red', takes the Prime Ministership and the game of 'cat and mouse' goes into overdrive as each side tries to achieve their ends at the expense of the other. Who wins that battle? My money is on the 'Reds' or whichever party is the lead actor in the next government.

The existential danger here is to the military as they have become, because of Prayut, simply one more political 'party' and they have lost their status as an outside force. And, we saw the repercussions of what happens when the military becomes 'simply another political player' and loses in 1992 (or so). I wasn't here, but the 'loss' in 1992 or so led directly to the new Constitution of '97, the rise of the 'Reds', the empowerment of the rural poor, and in many ways the beginning of the breakdown of the 'old order'' (but, is it not quite dead yet).

 

To sum up, there is great, great danger for the military in the next election (but I believe worse if they don't call it soon, but that is another post). If they 'lose', they are going to lose a great deal. If the 'Reds' or another opposition side loses, then BFD there will be another opportunity in a few years.

 

One final note. As we are in Asia, it is worth seeking knowledge from Sun Tzu. If you agree generally with my thoughts above, then I would say that the Thai military is in "Death Ground". And, Sun Tzu said "in Death Ground, fight!"

 

Interesting times...

26 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Interesting thread!

 

There is one question that I think is important, but hasn't really been mentioned yet; what happens to the military if they don't 'win' the next election and retain the Prime Ministership?

 

To me, a 'win' for the military can occur many different ways, but it must be viewed as a legitimate victory (however it might occur) by a large majority of the population, including and especially by many of the political classes. 

 

I see three general/possible outcomes;

1. Prayut becomes the next PM after an election which is viewed generally as free and fair. Or perhaps a better way to say that is 'free and fair enough'. Yes, the thought is revolting to me, but it is possible; no one has absolute certainty on how the new electoral system is going to break/shake down.
2. Prayut becomes the next PM through the use of the special Appointed Senate powers. I do not see a way that this could be seen as legitimate, no matter what arguments are put forth. This would lead to... uncertainty (for want of a better way to put it)? And I don't know where that uncertainty would lead...
3. Another party, based on the numbers likely 'Red', takes the Prime Ministership and the game of 'cat and mouse' goes into overdrive as each side tries to achieve their ends at the expense of the other. Who wins that battle? My money is on the 'Reds' or whichever party is the lead actor in the next government.

The existential danger here is to the military as they have become, because of Prayut, simply one more political 'party' and they have lost their status as an outside force. And, we saw the repercussions of what happens when the military becomes 'simply another political player' and loses in 1992 (or so). I wasn't here, but the 'loss' in 1992 or so led directly to the new Constitution of '97, the rise of the 'Reds', the empowerment of the rural poor, and in many ways the beginning of the breakdown of the 'old order'' (but, is it not quite dead yet).

 

To sum up, there is great, great danger for the military in the next election (but I believe worse if they don't call it soon, but that is another post). If they 'lose', they are going to lose a great deal. If the 'Reds' or another opposition side loses, then BFD there will be another opportunity in a few years.

 

One final note. As we are in Asia, it is worth seeking knowledge from Sun Tzu. If you agree generally with my thoughts above, then I would say that the Thai military is in "Death Ground". And, Sun Tzu said "in Death Ground, fight!"

 

Interesting times...

Excellent points, Samui Bodoh. I particularly liked your observation that the Thai military is no longer viewed as a neutral, outside force - but as one of the political players (with a huge vested interest). That is why it is highly likely that the military we be turned yet again against the Thai people (that is the de facto function of the Thai military, after all - to suppress the people; they certainly have not fought against any REAL external threat for decades - all they do is oppress their own people).

 

I cannot see Prayut ever being able to stomach a loss in any 'election' - so he will ensure that he and his bunch win (by foul means or foul - yes - ONLY foul means could enable that to happen) - and the repression will continue.

 

Until the Thais in their MILLIONS decide they have had enough and to say 'NO', in word and deed (not much sign of that at the moment, I must say), Prayut and his gang will continue to hold Thailand in a death grip for years to come ...

 

How long can he continue making up excuses for not having an election? 

10 years ? 

 

2 hours ago, webfact said:

He assured the public that his administration and the NCPO will work to maintain the utmost stability and not allow the country to return to the old vicious cycle.

"the old vicious circle" = Free and fair elections....?  Indeed very threatening for a dinosaur in uniform....

3 hours ago, JOC said:

In other words....No need for elections since we all are one big and united family...

And our happiness is provided by our dear father generalissimo Prayut...

Where do they sell those impressive Caps   555

 

A flame has been removed also a reply to it

Just now, Father Fintan Stack said:

It is almost as if they are compensating for something. 

555

2 minutes ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

It is almost as if they are compensating for something. 

Over compensating...

3 hours ago, Eligius said:

 

 

So, Thais: you either carry on muttering and grumbling (behind your hand) - and then kowtowing and wai-ing and grovelling before any representative of illegitimate Authority (as is your usual pathetic way of proceeding) - or you can actually DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT ALL ! We are well past the eleventh hour by now. The writing is on the wall for all to see ...

 

 

they seem to like being bent over..

although this is eaay to say and hard to do, but of thi m8litary had taken over my cointry id prolly be dead after 4 yrs, id in some sort of undergroing fighting...

 

so yes when are they going to stop being bent over?

 

i next to no faith in this country and many of ost pwople

1 hour ago, balo said:

How long can he continue making up excuses for not having an election? 

10 years ?

It would help if he was demonized by the "west" but as usual - nothing said! two faced acceptance, same as they do with Saudi!

 

35 minutes ago, CGW said:

It would help if he was demonized by the "west" but as usual - nothing said! two faced acceptance, same as they do with Saudi!

I think that the West has lost interest in erstwhile parachutists..

 

Especially for countries that have revolving door type military coups and spew a great deal of nonsense whilst really going on with the same old bull pattery.

 

What did Kipling say?

 

"Here is the grave of the man who tried to hustle the East."

 

As the Thais eternally remind the rest of the world that they are "Numbah Neung" in everything-I think that I will just leave 'em to it.

 

2 minutes ago, Odysseus123 said:

 

I think that the West has lost a great deal of interest in erstwhile parachutists..

 

Especially for countries that have revolving door type military coups and spew a great deal of nonsense whilst really going on with the same old bull pattery.

 

What did Kipling say?

 

"Here is the grave of the man who tried to hustle the East."

 

As the Thais eternally remind the rest of the world that they are "Numbah Neung" in everything-I think that I will just leave 'em to it.

 

A sensible attitude. 

 

24 minutes ago, Odysseus123 said:

 

I think that the West has lost interest in erstwhile parachutists..

 

Especially for countries that have revolving door type military coups and spew a great deal of nonsense whilst really going on with the same old bull pattery.

 

What did Kipling say?

 

As the Thais eternally remind the rest of the world that they are "Numbah Neung" in everything-I think that I will just leave 'em to it.

Yep, shame they don't lose interest in blaming the Russians for every wrong & start to take positive action rather than playing the "blame game'!

5 minutes ago, CGW said:

Yep, shame they don't lose interest in blaming the Russians for every wrong & start to take positive action rather than playing the "blame game'!

Whilst I may-or may not-agree with your sentiments I am just wondering where it fits in to this conversation.

 

The West supplies tourists and deluded farang to Thailand.Thailand supplies dazzling ladies and lots of barfing rhetoric back.

 

That's about it,really.

I have a clear idea of what the military are and of what they stand for. As about all things, the truth for me is not black, not white, but in shades of grey, which alas seem to get darker with time passing...

What I would like to learn more about are these 'activists' networks', 'pro democracy groups' and other 'citizens' initiatives', their structures, their financing(!), their following.

Who are they, where do they come from, what do they, really, want, and how do they, realistically, expect to achieve it?

As for what their 'leaders' are concerned, I'd like the same questions to be answered. Also, for those who are referred to as 'students', I would be interested to learn about their age, their academical achievements, and their present curriculum and planned future.

When an opposition, then, please, this time an idependent one, a clean one, a transparent one, at all levels, or else it will just be(come) a sequel of previous, political, Thai soap operas, with, alas, possibly, blood flowing in the streets, to no avail, as for the same forces puppeteering with the Thais for their own selfish profit for so many years...!

IMO, the majority of Thais are so afraid of the repetition of that, again, one more time, that they would rather accept the military to stay in control, instead of having them come back to abort another crisis in the next few years...

11 hours ago, missoura said:

Like many new expats, I read the numerous books about Thailand being sold throughout Bangkok that were written by both Western and Thai authors. Unfortunately, even with this knowledge and after years of living in Thailand, I understand less now than I ever did.

 

I am not a red shirt, yellow shirt, white shirt or a whistle blower. But, I have been to their rallies.

 

This is my personal observation. The Army has been in charge of Thailand for decades and probably will be in the foreseeable future.

To truly understand how this country works, you need to buy or read the books about Thailand that you CANNOT buy "throughout Bangkok".

These books are banned here, but available abroad and will open your eyes to what really has been going on post WW II.

Makes for pretty savage reading...

4 hours ago, Kimber said:

Where do they sell those impressive Caps   555

I believe that there is a Military Tailor's near Siam Square called " The Dressing Up Box".

 

Or perhaps Messrs. Hugo Boss, I believe they started out making dramatic bespoke military uniforms back in the 1930s, in Germany...

14 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

the effectiveness of the threat diminishes each and every time they are uttered. Thailand will have an election soon(ish), and if the Junta tries to delay it much further, then there will be terrible repercussions.

It is time to have the election, but I'm not as convinced that the junta agrees. I believe they are looking for a reason to delay as long as they can. I hate the thought of, "terrible repercussions" but you are right. The slow boil we see now good go full tilt and then things could rapidly get out of control. 

16 hours ago, webfact said:

Nevertheless, he said the prime minister believed the majority of the people understood what the government had been doing and had been moving toward the election mode.

Yup........... as a snail is moving toward the North Pole........... LOL..........