When will Thai Baht get back to reality

[ELVIS123456]

Far be it for me to accuse anyone of doing anything 'innapropriate', but it does seem to me that the rise in the value of the Baht over the last 2-3 years is totally unjustified.  Basically since 2014/2015 the Baht has increased in value against all other currencies.  When is it going to get back to a 'normal' level. Or is it going to rise and rise forever? I have taken some screenshots of the XE exchange rates over the last 10 years aginst many other currencies, and it stands out that the baht has gone up against virtually all other currencies.  I understand this makes it better for rich Thais when they buy imported stuff (like Mercedes). But surely it is not related to economic performance or interest rates, as they are both basically the same as they were years ago. And also wouldn't it be better for Tourism and Manufacvturing if the Baht was lower. Something is not right IMO.

 

US Dollar

 

British Pound:

 

Aussie Dollar:

 

 

Canadian Dollar:

 

Chinese Yuan:

 

 

Euro:

 

 

Japanese Yen:

 

As you can see, since 2014/2015 there has been a significant and persistent increase in the value of the Baht. Why?  The Chinese have been accused of currency manipulation, and I am wondering if anyone has heard of the IMF or UN raising this concern with Thailand?   I am definitely not interested in bringing my money into Thailand to buy anything significant like a property or a car, when the exchange rate is so low for me. The value of my currency has decreased by over 20% since 2015.  I see no real reason why this has happened.  Any views?

 

 

 

 

[Lamkyong]

i would be highly surprised if anyone here can come up with an acurate answer  in LAY MENS terms you will be inundated with lots of  theories    and charts similar to your post   sorry i can not offer any help  back to the fifty mark eould be nice (G.D.P.)

[Unsane]

What is reality?

[Kwasaki]

18 minutes ago, ELVIS123456 said:

Far be it for me to accuse anyone of doing anything 'innapropriate', but it does seem to me that the rise in the value of the Baht over the last 2-3 years is totally unjustified. 

Well that's the way it is in money exchange market so just cash at high points.

[ELVIS123456]

In answer to a few questions - the 'normal' ranges of value of the Baht against other currencies is what I mean by 'reality.  Aside from the dip of all western economies in 2008-2009 due to the Global Financial Crisis, and other things on an individual currency (like the Greece/EU crisis), the Thai Baht has predominately over the long term moved within normal levels against each currency.  But something happenned in 2015 - ever since then, the Baht has grown in value significantly against all currencies for a long period of time.  In many cases for over 3 years. Even during the GFC the abnormal changes did not last that long.  Movement in one direction over the last 3 years aint normal. Something is going on. It doesnt make sense.

  

[faraday]

16 minutes ago, Unsane said:

What is reality?

Anything that has existed, exists, or will exist.

[ELVIS123456]

23 minutes ago, Lamkyong said:

i would be highly surprised if anyone here can come up with an acurate answer  in LAY MENS terms you will be inundated with lots of  theories    and charts similar to your post   sorry i can not offer any help  back to the fifty mark eould be nice (G.D.P.)

Yeh - anything around 28-30 Baht to the AUD would be nice too (and normal).  I guess it will eventually change back.  But I just cannot understand that the currency of a 3rd world country that is being run by a military junta, can run the course that it currently is running.  Is the US doing soemthing to prop them up, and create an economic buffer against China?? It has to be something along those lines to last for so long, because it aint due to the normal economic and interest rate cycles.

 

 

[Unsane]

15 minutes ago, faraday said:

Anything that has existed, exists, or will exist.

Ergo, there's no reality and no norm and everything else is speculative.  Enjoy the randomness of the exchange rate.

[Unsane]

12 minutes ago, ELVIS123456 said:

Yeh - anything around 28-30 Baht to the AUD would be nice too (and normal).  

I'm guessing you're not enjoying the new normal?

[RichardColeman]

It's not an answer but I would say learn to live on what the exchange rate gives you - in my case the pound stinks each monthly transfer recently. BUT I and my wife adjust our spending habits to cope with it.

 

If you can learn to live on the worst exchange rate, then living on the higher rate will be a doddle  !

 

Personally I think the baht IS being manipulated somehow, since I would have expect at least a slight depreciation under a Junta. 

[FritsSikkink]

43 minutes ago, ELVIS123456 said:

In answer to a few questions - the 'normal' ranges of value of the Baht against other currencies is what I mean by 'reality.  Aside from the dip of all western economies in 2008-2009 due to the Global Financial Crisis, and other things on an individual currency (like the Greece/EU crisis), the Thai Baht has predominately over the long term moved within normal levels against each currency.  But something happenned in 2015 - ever since then, the Baht has grown in value significantly against all currencies for a long period of time.  In many cases for over 3 years. Even during the GFC the abnormal changes did not last that long.  Movement in one direction over the last 3 years aint normal. Something is going on. It doesnt make sense.

  

It does make sense as the Thai economy is doing good which can't be said of the EU ones.

[tingtongtourist]

just a few points:

 

-thai stock market: seems healthy and is actually gaining on performance instead of being dragged down with BS of western fund managers and dodgey loan practices.

 

-Thailand has little exposure to western corruption of the banking system.

no government forced superannuation policies that force people to pay into but which will fail due to chrashes and inflation once interest rates go up again. 

 

-no triple taxing of the lower and middle class while the rich pay nothing.

 

-yes, they had the TomYumGoong crisis but the US banking meltdown did not destroy them because of little exposure to IMFs.

 

- thai have healthy export of textiles and food to neighbouring countries and export afar also.

 

- toursim has nearly doubled in recent years.

 

- despite what the moaners say. Thailand has a pretty easy immigration policy which does attract a lot of foriegners who bring money into the country.

[swissie]

2 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

It does make sense as the Thai economy is doing good which can't be said of the EU ones.

Exactly. It's not the Thai Bht getting stronger, it's the "western currencies" getting weaker.
Why? Economically, politically, militarily the "West" has peaked, while the "Asian-Dawn" has just begun. (You ain't seen nothing yet).
10 years from now, the Bht (and other asian currencies) will likely be another 25-30% higher. Perfectly normal.
Cheers.

[Ks45672]

Hopefully it continues and the baht ends up breaking records against the dollar pound and euro

[thailand49]

12 hours ago, ELVIS123456 said:

Yeh - anything around 28-30 Baht to the AUD would be nice too (and normal).  I guess it will eventually change back.  But I just cannot understand that the currency of a 3rd world country that is being run by a military junta, can run the course that it currently is running.  Is the US doing soemthing to prop them up, and create an economic buffer against China?? It has to be something along those lines to last for so long, because it aint due to the normal economic and interest rate cycles.

 

 

Just a personal opinion it is because he isn't really running the country he was put in place before the HM pass to keep the country in tack and they seem to have done that but he is nothing more than a puppet who is starting to love the job for all the benefits it provides.  It is no surprise to me at least he wants to have the job for good.

[Baerboxer]

12 hours ago, Unsane said:

What is reality?

 

This isn't the right forum to ask about reality 

[Henryford]

Elvis - what do all the currencies you list have in common. They come from countries than run massive fiscal deficits and print dodgy money like there is no tomorrow. It's not surprising that their value is falling like a stone. Things will never get back to "normal" until they adopt sound financial strategies, which in most cases is never.

[faraday]

5 minutes ago, Henryford said:

Elvis - what do all the currencies you list have in common. They come from countries than run massive fiscal deficits and print dodgy money like there is no tomorrow. It's not surprising that their value is falling like a stone. Things will never get back to "normal" until they adopt sound financial strategies, which in most cases is never.

Yup & I still don't understand why printing more money helps.

 

What is "Quantitative Easing?"

[thaibeachlovers]

13 hours ago, ELVIS123456 said:

In answer to a few questions - the 'normal' ranges of value of the Baht against other currencies is what I mean by 'reality.  Aside from the dip of all western economies in 2008-2009 due to the Global Financial Crisis, and other things on an individual currency (like the Greece/EU crisis), the Thai Baht has predominately over the long term moved within normal levels against each currency.  But something happenned in 2015 - ever since then, the Baht has grown in value significantly against all currencies for a long period of time.  In many cases for over 3 years. Even during the GFC the abnormal changes did not last that long.  Movement in one direction over the last 3 years aint normal. Something is going on. It doesnt make sense.

  

IMO there is no such thing as "normal" any more. Computers control everything and respond to their programme, rather than real events.

For some of us the period after the economic crisis in Thailand last century was great. I saw a rate of 99 baht to 1 pound, and it settled about 70 to the pound for some years, till the US stuffed everything with it's subprime fiasco.

The rate now isn't great for those wanting to bring in forex, but it's great for me wanting to buy my own currency.

Swings and roundabouts and all that.

[thaibeachlovers]

41 minutes ago, faraday said:

Yup & I still don't understand why printing more money helps.

 

What is "Quantitative Easing?"

Quantitative Easing, as I understand it was a Mickey Mouse fix for Donald Duck monetary policies invented by US bankers which was enthusiastically adopted by the political class in the US as they were making loadsacash out of it.

The invented money, which never really existed, except as paper, was supposed to stimulate the economy, but ended up saving the big nobs in charge of failed businesses like GMC, and did nothing for the working man.

Probably the greatest financial crime perpetrated against the people of the world, ever, yet no one responsible has seen a jail cell.

The really frightening thing is that scum bankers are even now seeking to replicate the same scam to make even more money for the greedy <deleted> that run the world.

[Cricky]

13 hours ago, ELVIS123456 said:

3rd world country

You got this wrong, Thailand is a developing country, very, very different. 

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, Baerboxer said:

 

This isn't the right forum to ask about reality 

There is no such thing as "reality" as we are all just batteries in the Matrix, and dreaming it.

[chippendale]

It because Thailand economy strong, powerful makmaak ... first world, krup!

 

Also because Britain poor. Europe not want.

British pound become Lao kip, very weak.

[thaibeachlovers]

4 minutes ago, rickjza said:

You got this wrong, Thailand is a developing country, very, very different. 

Actually, LOS is no more a "developing" country than Singapore is. It is a developed country where the money that should have been used for infrastructure has been "appropriated" for other purposes. 

Developing countries don't build transport hubs like the new one at Bang Sue.

Edited May 9, 2018 by thaibeachlovers

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, chippendale said:

It because Thailand economy strong, powerful makmaak ... first world, krup!

 

Also because Britain poor. Europe not want.

British pound become Lao kip, very weak.

Anyone lived in Britain knows why they are broke. It could have been so different, but Gordon wasted all the money, and it's never recovered.

[shaurene]

Currencies are controlled by the state of that countries economy and the Thai economy is strong. If the banking sector of a country is performing well, like a balance of payments. They are selling more than they are buying. Then investors buy that currency as a safe bet. If the Thai economy start buying more goods than they sell then the Bank of Thailand has to start looking what they can do to get more forien currency, like US$ and other safer currencies. Over the last few years the economies of many countries have suffered and interest rates have dropped so low investors look to other options. Like buying a safe currency that does not drop in value over high employment rates, housing bubble bursts, a depression. In the Asia crisis many years ago when all of the Asian currencies crashed all western currencies were great. There are no signs of problems with Thailand, Tourism brings in so much forien currencies the Thai bank will not make any moves to de-value the Baht. I transfered a lot of my NZ dollars a few years back at 25.5 baht to my dollar. Since then it has dropped to 22 but I have a lot left so do not need any more Thai Baht yet. But I think it all boils down to the weakness of the other currencies.

[sammieuk1]

Here's my theory and its not based on anything other than my thoughts.

 

Thai exports must be paid for in local currency's of the recipients or how could they possibly be competitive ?

Once said currency's are here its in everyone's interest to keep the TB as high as possible its just a local currency.

With tourism at record highs also bringing in massive FX this country must be awash with dosh for the few and powerful.

It appears to me that the Thai rich are right behind a cripplingly strong baht simply because they want more dollars the real world currency.         

[faraday]

10 minutes ago, chippendale said:

It because Thailand economy strong, powerful makmaak ... first world, krup!

 

Also because Britain poor. Europe not want.

British pound become Lao kip, very weak.

Quite agree.

 

In ten years time the whole world will speak Thai.

 

Can't remember who first said that though.

 

The UK is in a right mess. Thanks Blair.

[chris2224]

14 hours ago, ELVIS123456 said:

Yeh - anything around 28-30 Baht to the AUD would be nice too (and normal).  I guess it will eventually change back.  But I just cannot understand that the currency of a 3rd world country that is being run by a military junta, can run the course that it currently is running.  Is the US doing soemthing to prop them up, and create an economic buffer against China?? It has to be something along those lines to last for so long, because it aint due to the normal economic and interest rate cycles.

 

 

Your kidding....3rd world country! Thailand has better roads and metro transport than the US or the UK. Better private sector dentistry and hospital care. Gun crime...let me think when was the last mass shooting in Thailand.

The US is joint third in the world for murder capitals of the world: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate

GDP annual growth rate of 4% vs US 2.9% and UK of 1.2% https://tradingeconomics.com/

 

In terms of the original question, GBP / USD are screwed up because of the fundamental economics of both countries, and in general of the 'west'. Trump attempts war-mongering in a bid to assist the broken country.

As others point out the 'west' has had its day, Asia is on the rise and the anticipated 100 year economic boom of Asia and decline of the West has likely just begun. 

 

Give me your supposed third world country any day of the week. 

 

 

 

[Cranky]

14 hours ago, Lamkyong said:

i would be highly surprised if anyone here can come up with an acurate answer  in LAY MENS terms you will be inundated with lots of  theories    and charts similar to your post   sorry i can not offer any help  back to the fifty mark eould be nice (G.D.P.)

This is the reality of the 'value' of any given currency against another.  There is no point in comparing lots of different countries value to the Thai Baht as this only reflects that currency against the base currency you are using - stick with your home currency. ie If GBP falls against the dollar, it will also fall against the baht etc.  Check PPP index and you will actually discover the Thai Baht is, in theory, undervalued.  Fact is it is all down to good old fashioned supply and demand.  For those that remember July '97 - or more relevantly the 6 months prior to that when the Thai government spend all their USD reserves buying Baht to prop it up.  That ended well.  The practice is seldom used today for obvious reasons as it is far more efficient to allow currencies to find their own level driven by market forces.

 

Charts will just give you history and not reflect the economy, forecasts and environment of the day.  In reality currency relationships are like an elastic band; either fully stretched or contracted giving the extreme points of value -in THB terms between 25 and 50 so today we are nearer to 25 where it was for years due to being pegged.  Whereas 50-odd to the USD was very brief.

 

A clear example can be found by looking at the relationship between the UK FTSE and the value of Sterling - the market rising as the currency falls, and vice-versa.  Basically, as the stocks get cheaper more international buyers turn up which in turn drives up the value of the currency in search of the 'double-whammy' - a gain in both stock price and currency - then the opposite happens resulting in the 'whipsaw' effect - up and down like a pair of walking-street knickers -  lots of in-and-out but underneath little changes.