Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[dick dasterdly]

2 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

I'll let the Brexiters speak for themselves. They seem to be quite good at it, and they have the advantage of democracy on their side.

 

But as for myself, I've worked in most European nations inside and outside of the EU, and I'm a citizen of two EU nations. So yes I have a huge amount of personal experience and knowledge of Europe, and I'm strongly pro-European.

 

Funnily enough, so am I!

 

I particularly like the Germans, even though their reputation of throwing towel on sunbed early in the morning to claim them for the day is very true ????.

 

Nonetheless, they are generally lovely people.

 

I was also suprised to find that the French abroad are lovely too.

 

Although I've little time for the Italians I've met abroad.... and even less for a few Greeks that I came across in their own country.....

 

Back on topic, I generally like Europeans - but know that the Eu needs serious reform, which will never be countenanced by those in power.....

[owl sees all]

19 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

I'll let the Brexiters speak for themselves. They seem to be quite good at it, and they have the advantage of democracy on their side.

 

But as for myself, I've worked in most European nations inside and outside of the EU, and I'm a citizen of two EU nations. So yes I have a huge amount of personal experience and knowledge of Europe, and I'm strongly pro-European.

 

Most of the posters on this topic are probably pro-European. But not this version. The EU structure is nothing short of a dictatorship and the beginnings of a Federal Europe.

[billd766]

2 hours ago, damascase said:

This one.?

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/contingency-qanda_en.pdf

tebee has posted no links, reports etc to back up what he says and as far as I am concerned anything he posts without a link or a report is merely a figment of his limited imagination.

 

OTOH the link that you posted destroys his words completely.

 

Thank you.

[mommysboy]

5 hours ago, tebee said:

The European Commission will at noon today publish its preparation plans for no-deal Brexit. Here are some highlights based on early info:

 

1) UK nationals residing in other EU countries will from 29 March no longer have the right to live/work there - in their words, Brits will not be given any special right to stay on the continent. But the Commission will ask member states to prepare national laws to allow them to stay for now, so they’re not immediately expelled.

It’s up to national capitals whether they want to do this

2) The Commission will put in place some sector-specific emergency arrangements, but these will be very limited in time and scope. 

They include emergency arrangements to stop planes from being grounded, and measures for financial services to protect money flows.

 

3) The key thing that will be stressed for all transition arrangements is that they are temporary (will last only until the end of next year) and can be cancelled unilaterally by the EU.

 

4) This proposal will need to be approved by member states and the European Parliament before MEPs leave for election campaigning in March.

That leaves just 2 months for this legislation to be considered and approved - which would be record timing.

 

 

The lack of EU-level guarantee for UK citizens to remain in EU will raise eyebrows.

Commission is asking EU countries to replicate what May is offering at national level for EU citizens in the UK. 

But as far as EU is concerned they will be considered “third country nationals”

 

 

Yes.  Nevertheless we do see that it is not the cliff edge oft reported.  

 

 

[Scott]

A post violating Fair Use Policy has been removed.

 

[sandyf]

17 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

You've made some good contributions in the last few days. I haven't been following the divorce payment issue in detail, but I do remember that the House of Lords opined that the payment wouldn't be necessary in the event of no ageement being reached. That was ealy 2017 I think.

 

And today or yesterday Raab suggested that the divorce payment should be used instead for tax breaks for British companies to offset the punitive Brexit that Macron and Selmayr have advocated.

The House of Lords only ever said they considered strong ground for no legal obligation, it would take a court case to confirm their opinion. How would that go down in the eyes of the world.

Everyone talks about it like a single invoice when in fact it is a multitude of payments and refunds spread over several years.

 

If the government had spent what they have spent so far on brexit in a meaningful way prior to the referendum, we wouldn't be in this mess. Unfortunately management is not a government strong point, firefighting is about all they understand.

[My Thai Life]

4 minutes ago, sandyf said:

If the government had spent what they have spent so far on brexit in a meaningful way prior to the referendum, we wouldn't be in this mess. Unfortunately management is not a government strong point, firefighting is about all they understand.

I agree with you Sandy. Brexit is the biggest "single" economic-political change the UK has ever undertaken, and it has come at a time when we have a government and an opposition that are, in the opinion of many, not fit for purpose.

[My Thai Life]

The consequences of an unmanaged no-deal are now being taken seriously in Germany.

 

Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), warns that "Brexit threatens massive consequences for the German economy”.

 

“We must be clear what this is all about. More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain. Just-in-time production and supply chains are at risk,” he said.”

 

I suggested a few months ago that as we got closer to Brexit day German manufacturing would start to flex its muscles, and hopefully to override its bureaucratic representatives in Brussels. This isn't my own personal idea of course, it's been expressed by many commentators.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/12/19/no-deal-brexit-risks-rude-economic-shock-germany-fragile-eurozone/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

 

[sandyf]

4 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

I suggested a few months ago that as we got closer to Brexit day German manufacturing would start to flex its muscles, and hopefully to override its bureaucratic representatives in Brussels.

And to what end exactly, the withdrawal agreement is what it is and has nothing to do with car manufacturing.

The EU laid down its position on the withdrawal agreement from day one and the German government has agreed every step along the way. Even the German industrialists including the automotive sector supported the EU position.

 

This echoes similar concerns from the German Employers Association and an earlier intervention from the country’s powerful automotive lobby which said the integrity of the EU must come first in talks over the Brexit settlement.

“It is the responsibility of the British government to limit the damage on both sides of the Channel," said Kempf. "Over the coming months, it will be extraordinarily difficult to avert negative effects on British businesses in particular."

https://www.politico.eu/article/german-industry-to-uk-we-wont-undermine-single-market-over-brexit/

 

As stated, responsibility lies with the UK government but of course to some Brussels is the root of all evil.

[tebee]

14 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

The consequences of an unmanaged no-deal are now being taken seriously in Germany.

 

Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), warns that "Brexit threatens massive consequences for the German economy”.

 

li-

“We must be clear what this is all about. More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain. Just-in-time production and supply chains are at risk,” he said.”

 

I suggested a few months ago that as we got closer to Brexit day German manufacturing would start to flex its muscles, and hopefully to override its bureaucratic representatives in Brussels. This isn't my own personal idea of course, it's been expressed by many commentators.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/12/19/no-deal-brexit-risks-rude-economic-shock-germany-fragile-eurozone/?li_source=LI&li_medium=

recommendation-widget

 

There is no way of managing no deal so there is only unmanaged no deal.

 

Yes, Germany and the rest of the EU will suffer, but their suffering will be less than ours.  However, that suffering is less than the problems that would be caused long term by compromising the integrity of the single market  to accommodate the UK. I know the UK doesn't really think long term, but Europe does.

 

 Just-in-time production and supply chains will be at risk, but that risk will be circumvented by replacing the British  parts with European ones.

 

There will be less exports to the UK, but equally there will be less exports from the UK - the consumers that would have bought them will still need to buy from somewhere.

 

 

[My Thai Life]

49 minutes ago, sandyf said:

And to what end exactly, the withdrawal agreement is what it is and has nothing to do with car manufacturing.

The EU laid down its position on the withdrawal agreement from day one and the German government has agreed every step along the way. Even the German industrialists including the automotive sector supported the EU position.

My post was not about the withdrawal agreement, it was about German industry concerns for no deal.

 

At the moment, no-one seems to believe the withdrawal agreement will actually be agreed.

[My Thai Life]

58 minutes ago, tebee said:

There is no way of managing no deal so there is only unmanaged no deal.

 

Yes, Germany and the rest of the EU will suffer, but their suffering will be less than ours.  However, that suffering is less than the problems that would be caused long term by compromising the integrity of the single market  to accommodate the UK. I know the UK doesn't really think long term, but Europe does.

 

 Just-in-time production and supply chains will be at risk, but that risk will be circumvented by replacing the British  parts with European ones.

 

There will be less exports to the UK, but equally there will be less exports from the UK - the consumers that would have bought them will still need to buy from somewhere.

You are making a lot of assertions Tebee, based on speculation about things that no-one can be sure about at this time. But I'll reply to a couple of points.

 

There clearly is a difference between an unmanaged no-deal and a managed no-deal. Precisely what that difference shapes up to be we don't know at present, but the post you made yesterday about expat residency rights is one example. The article that I referenced has a much longer list of EU no-deal management points.

 

Regarding the long-term view. I'd say that the remain side has never really demonstrated any appreciation of the long-term impact of ever-closer union, and the damage that it has done and will continue to do. The IMF and other forecasters have provided analysis of the damage of monetary union, and the likely re-emergence of such problems in the next 6 months, some of which I have referenced here in the last month. These are structural problems, not short term market problems.

 

The EU is not alone in JIT. I studied JIT as part of my Master's around 1993, it's in use in many parts of the world without customs unions, and I've already offered views on how JIT can continue between the UK and the EU post Brexit.

 

Finally, to compare relative damage to the UK and the EU is too simplistic – the EU is not a homogenous whole – it is not a single state. Some EU trade will not be affected, let’s say Greek Feta cheese (I guess). But German car manufacturers will be affected very substantially, and these people are the most powerful lobby group in the EU.

 

UK-EU trade will continue, but even the most informed insider cannot at present say what the shape of that trade will be, because no-one knows what the policies will be. 

Edited December 20, 2018 by My Thai Life

[talahtnut]

58 minutes ago, sandyf said:

As stated, responsibility lies with the UK government but of course to some Brussels is the root of all evil.

Yes,  I put the blame on both, they have both concockted

this 2 year waste of time in order to ramp up anti-Brexit

propaganda, in the hope of maintaining the status quo.

The treacherous UK gov. wants remain...I expect we will.

We will end up like France and other members, under

the jackboot of the banks, eternal peoples poverty.

Complexity is government, trade is simple.

 

 

[baboon]

13 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

We will end up like France and other members, under

the jackboot of the banks, eternal peoples poverty.

Complexity is government, trade is simple.

What do you mean, "end up like"...?

[tebee]

27 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

...

 

There clearly is a difference between an unmanaged no-deal and a managed no-deal. Precisely what that difference shapes up to be we don't know at present, but the post you made yesterday about expat residency rights is one example. The article that I referenced has a much longer list of EU no-deal management points.

 

 

 

 

There can not be a managed no deal simply because you can not manage what you have no control over. There can be a mitigated no deal brexit, but that will only be because others choice to apply their laws "flexibly" to avoid the worst damage to both sides.

 

We will have no control at all  in this, it's ironic in that in "taking back control" we lose it all. Because the damage is so asymmetric they hold all the cards. They will be able to force whatever concessions they want of the the UK. The first will be an unconditional guarantee of EU  citizens rights in the UK , next will be NI part of the withdrawal agreement, then the £39 million and ongoing payments to maintain whatever special arrangements we want. 

 

It's ironic, to me at least, that in every step of the way, the brexiter's obsession  with taking back control has caused us to cede control to others. Every step has been a misstep, simply  because they haven't thought things through.

[anon676545345]

1 hour ago, talahtnut said:

Yes,  I put the blame on both, they have both concockted

this 2 year waste of time in order to ramp up anti-Brexit

propaganda, in the hope of maintaining the status quo.

The treacherous UK gov. wants remain...I expect we will.

We will end up like France and other members, under

the jackboot of the banks, eternal peoples poverty.

Complexity is government, trade is simple.

 

 

 

Exactly they've just been going round in circles wasting time the vote was to leave, there was nothing about a deal on that ballot paper any talk of a deal is just selling out. We've had 2 years of anti Brexit propaganda from the likes of the BBC scaring the sheep, but it's just the same bullshit they touted during the referendum. 

 

A rise in GDP doesn't equal a rise in wages so why should your average worker care? Things are shit, have been shit and continue to get worse the only scum who benefit are the bankers in London and I'd be more than happy if they @ucked off to Europe that way the tax payer won't have to bail them out next time they stuffed up. 

 

Employment rights are the worst they been since the industrial revolution, wages are stagnant, services are terrible it's virtually impossible to see a Doctor and public transport is an absolute joke. If this is the status quo bring on anything else!

[My Thai Life]

56 minutes ago, tebee said:

There can not be a managed no deal simply because you can not manage what you have no control over. There can be a mitigated no deal brexit, but that will only be because others choice to apply their laws "flexibly" to avoid the worst damage to both sides.

 

We will have no control at all  in this, it's ironic in that in "taking back control" we lose it all. Because the damage is so asymmetric they hold all the cards. They will be able to force whatever concessions they want of the the UK. The first will be an unconditional guarantee of EU  citizens rights in the UK , next will be NI part of the withdrawal agreement, then the £39 million and ongoing payments to maintain whatever special arrangements we want. 

 

It's ironic, to me at least, that in every step of the way, the brexiter's obsession  with taking back control has caused us to cede control to others. Every step has been a misstep, simply  because they haven't thought things through.

My OP was about the German car industry's recent reaction. But out of courtesy I'll briefly reply to your off topic comments.

 

Para 1. Mitigation is a form of management - let's not waste time with semantics. The EU has already put forward a list of management points, as I said before (or mitigation points if you want to call them that).

 

Para 2. You seem to be mixing up withdrawal agreement terms with a no-deal scenario in this para, so it's hard to respond to. You also seem to be repeating Ivan Rogers words, which I'll try to respond to tomorrow if I have time. You talk of asymmetric damage as if the EU is one country; I have to remind you again - the EU is not one country. The UK is Germany's largest car export market in the world, and the German car industry is the EU's most powerful lobby group. Alliance Bernstein says Germany’s car companies are trading at levels hinting at bankruptcy risk, and that they are in no fit state to cope with a full-blown Brexit shock. I guess if you believe economics is a zero sum game you could call that leverage (in the UK's favour).

 

Para 3. Again I hear Ivan Rogers' words. Everyone agrees that May's approach has been inept. One thing that is clear is that A50 is not fit for purpose. As I've mentioned a few times now, A50 was drafted in a hurry for a completely different scenario, not for a major player like the UK.

 

Sir Ivan almost admits in his recent speech that the EU is not acting in its good faith commitment as a WTO member to avoid impediments to trade, or its legal obligations under the Vienna Convention and Article 4 of its own Lisbon Treaty. My hope is that the German car lobby brings these EU bureaucrats to heel. The punitive approach advocated by Macron and Selmayr would undoubtedly damage the German car industry at a point in time where it is particularly vulnerable, and frankly I think German Auto inc has far more real power than Macron and Selmayr dream about even in their wildest fantasies.

 

have a good evening, or morning

 

 

Edited December 20, 2018 by My Thai Life

[evadgib]

 

[tebee]

1 hour ago, My Thai Life said:

My OP was about the German car industry's recent reaction. But out of courtesy I'll briefly reply to your off topic comments.

 

Para 1. Mitigation is a form of management - let's not waste time with semantics. The EU has already put forward a list of management points, as I said before (or mitigation points if you want to call them that).

 

Para 2. You seem to be mixing up withdrawal agreement terms with a no-deal scenario in this para, so it's hard to respond to. You also seem to be repeating Ivan Rogers words, which I'll try to respond to tomorrow if I have time. You talk of asymmetric damage as if the EU is one country; I have to remind you again - the EU is not one country. The UK is Germany's largest car export market in the world, and the German car industry is the EU's most powerful lobby group. Alliance Bernstein says Germany’s car companies are trading at levels hinting at bankruptcy risk, and that they are in no fit state to cope with a full-blown Brexit shock. I guess if you believe economics is a zero sum game you could call that leverage (in the UK's favour).

 

Para 3. Again I hear Ivan Rogers' words. Everyone agrees that May's approach has been inept. One thing that is clear is that A50 is not fit for purpose. As I've mentioned a few times now, A50 was drafted in a hurry for a completely different scenario, not for a major player like the UK.

 

Sir Ivan almost admits in his recent speech that the EU is not acting in its good faith commitment as a WTO member to avoid impediments to trade, or its legal obligations under the Vienna Convention and Article 4 of its own Lisbon Treaty. My hope is that the German car lobby brings these EU bureaucrats to heel. The punitive approach advocated by Macron and Selmayr would undoubtedly damage the German car industry at a point in time where it is particularly vulnerable, and frankly I think German Auto inc has far more real power than Macron and Selmayr dream about even in their wildest fantasies.

 

have a good evening, or morning

 

 

1: management implies they we can control this. We can't. The mitigation will rely on the goodness of others. Yes they will benefit too, but I would expect there to be a price to pay.

 

Which brings me to 2: I expect that price for this assistance to be reviving those parts of May's deal that the EU wants. Protection of it citizens, an agreement on NI  - my guess would be the post-transition arrangements agreed in the withdrawal agreement - and the UK to pay it's bills. Don't think for a moment that no deal will exonerate you from those. 

 

3: I agree, but if May and the brexiters had not been in such a hurry and thought things through first we would not be in this mess. 

 

4: my point was that the german car industry may be worried, but it doesn't need to be . 80% of our new car exports are to Europe - the people who would have bought those cars are still going to need a new car from somewhere - why not those german manufacturers?

 

You can't use good faith commitment if all they are doing is implementing existing rules  - that they may chose temporaly to relax those rules to help us is not a reason to say they should never use them.

[3NUMBAS]

more remainer scare mongering ,like the year 2000 bug when all PCs were going to fail ,but it was business as usual and no PCs dropped dead..

[Jack100]

16 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

more remainer scare mongering ,like the year 2000 bug when all PCs were going to fail ,but it was business as usual and no PCs dropped dead..

Er not quite ,  on 1 /1 2000  I said the  same thing to a friend who worked on the bug , all a  fuss about nothing etc  - actually his reply was  - there was a problem and thousands of people worked for years  on it and fixed it  !

 

This is the Exact  opposite - there was no real threat to jobs and the economy but there is now  but NOBODY is working on it because they don't know how to fix it !

[talahtnut]

35 minutes ago, tebee said:

1: management implies they we can control this. We can't. The mitigation will rely on the goodness of others. Yes they will benefit too, but I would expect there to be a price to pay.

Remainers waffle..Even chaos can be managed with the

right leader and new ideas.

Sorry, couldn't be bothered the rest of the waffle, number

1 was enough.

Check out the Institute of Statecraft, Integrity Initiative.

UK treachery at best.

 

 

[Jack100]

1 hour ago, evadgib said:

 

Pat is that a threat ?

[malagateddy]

No..in all probability..the truth

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[billd766]

3 hours ago, evadgib said:

 

I wonder if Grouse has seen that link?

 

Pat Condell never raised his voice, never ranted and raved and IMHO came over reasonably but then again I voted to leave.

[talahtnut]

22 minutes ago, billd766 said:

I wonder if Grouse has seen that link?

 

Pat Condell never raised his voice, never ranted and raved and IMHO came over reasonably but then again I voted to leave.

Ruffed Grouse for dinner tomorrow.

[bomber]

11 hours ago, Chartist said:

 

Exactly they've just been going round in circles wasting time the vote was to leave, there was nothing about a deal on that ballot paper any talk of a deal is just selling out. We've had 2 years of anti Brexit propaganda from the likes of the BBC scaring the sheep, but it's just the same bullshit they touted during the referendum. 

 

A rise in GDP doesn't equal a rise in wages so why should your average worker care? Things are shit, have been shit and continue to get worse the only scum who benefit are the bankers in London and I'd be more than happy if they @ucked off to Europe that way the tax payer won't have to bail them out next time they stuffed up. 

 

Employment rights are the worst they been since the industrial revolution, wages are stagnant, services are terrible it's virtually impossible to see a Doctor and public transport is an absolute joke. If this is the status quo bring on anything else!

you must live in a different UK to me,employment rights have improved hugely in the last 10 years as has the minimum wage,doctors a wait but your seen to if urgent,buses and transport are good in most area's,none of the things your moaning about are EU instigated and what you have now you are risking with brexit and the soon to be PM the great comrade corbyn,those bankers will come in handy when he visits them to borrow more money and bankrupt the country even further.

[bomber]

9 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

more remainer scare mongering ,like the year 2000 bug when all PCs were going to fail ,but it was business as usual and no PCs dropped dead..

thing is it wont take much for the UK to fail and fall into recession 2 days of snow and it registers a blip,the seeds are all set,barely any growth,battered currency,companies queing up to leave (yes some are bluffing but many are not) JC and Labour ready to stroll into power,massive govt and household debt,basically its about donald ducked,more chance of quasimodo pulling a stunner than Britain getting better with brexit

[My Thai Life]

Duplicate

Edited December 21, 2018 by My Thai Life

[My Thai Life]

13 hours ago, tebee said:

You can't use good faith commitment if all they are doing is implementing existing rules  - that they may chose temporaly to relax those rules to help us is not a reason to say they should never use them.

Thanks for your reply Tebee, If you don't mind me saying so I think it's the best piece of reasoning I've seen you employ to date.

 

I think most of us are aware of the "asymmetrical" argument, because the remain-leaning MSM has never let us forget it.

 

Also, I think you exaggerate the idea that the rules are the rules and must be applied. There is no precedent for Brexit, and A50 clearly is not fit for purpose. In this situation there are major gaps in the rules. And as ever, rules are open to interpretation.

 

I agree with Ivan Rogers that the EU has out-negotiated May's representatives at every step. But this has led us to the Withdrawal Agreement, which is so one-sided in favour of the EU that it will never pass. Yes it shows the UK team to be inept (or maybe it would be more accurate to say that the UK negotiation team is comprised of remainers who have no interest in leaving), but it also shows the EU team to be acting in less than good faith, and I think this has probably hardened a lot of opinion against the EU.

 

Be all that as it may, we are now in a situation where the Withdrawal Agreement will not pass, leading most likely to a no-deal. This could take 3 forms – managed, mitigated or immediate 3^rd country status. At this point I’d like to go back to my OP:

 

Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), warns that “Brexit threatens massive consequences for the German economy…We must be clear what this is all about. More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

 

I don’t think he’ll be impressed with the “don’t worry, it’s asymmetrical” argument.