Citibank predicts 3.3% Thai economic growth this year

[webfact]

Citibank predicts 3.3% Thai economic growth this year

 

   

BANGKOK 2019 (NNT) - Citibank has made its latest adjustments to its global economic analysis, expecting a slight deceleration from the trade war. The bank now expects the Thai economy to expand up to 3.3 percent, urging the new government to stimulate the domestic economy.

 

Citibank Thailand’s Economist, Nalin Chutchotitham has revealed that the global economy this year could grow 2.9 percent, below 2018’s figure of 3.2 percent, due to tensions resulting from the trade war between the U.S. and China, along with signs of U.S. currency depreciation becase of a lower performing U.S. economy, and the possibility of the relaxation of certain financial measures by the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) resulting in the appreciation of other currencies.

 

Due to these conditions, Citibank has lowered Thailand’s economic growth projection this year from 3.8 to 3.3 percent, partially due to lower investments in Q1. The bank now projects a slight Thai economic recovery in 2020 with 3.7 percent annual growth.

 

The export and tourism sectors in the remaining half of 2019 are still showing growth potential compared to earlier this year, while the Thai baht is likely to remain strong until early 2020, being valued at between 31.20 to 31.50 baht per U.S. dollar.

 

On the forming of the new Cabinet, Citibank considers this a positive factor for the economy, however the extent of it will depend on the government’s economic stimulation measures. The bank recommends the government urgently stimulate the domestic economy to compensate for a deceleration in the export and tourism sectors, and to expedite pending projects such as the Eastern Economic Corridor and state enterprise investments.

 

-- © Copyright NNT 2019-07-15

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[robertson468]

30% reduction of Tourists, reduction in Exports, high level currency.............Citi Bank clearly are living on another planet than the rest of us.  Typical Thai false optomism.

[Srikcir]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Citibank has lowered Thailand’s economic growth projection this year from 3.8 to 3.3 percent, partially due to lower investments in Q1. The bank now projects a slight Thai economic recovery in 2020 with 3.7 percent annual growth.

Good luck getting 3.3%.

According to senior Bank of Thailand official, Don Nakornthab, that the economy would expand 3.3% this year on the assumption that export growth would be flat. http://www.nationthailand.com/business/30372238

If export growth contracts, the overall growth will be lower than 3.3%. 

 

Even ithis yearf Thailand achieves 3.3%, the Asia Pacific region (Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taipei) excluding is expected to grow 6.2%, Chin at 6.3%, India at 7.2% and Southeast Asia at close to 5% until 2020 according to Takehiko Nakao, president of Asia Development Bank (2019-05-03).   http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30368799

Foreign investments will be attracted to the highest growth rates and most stable governments. Thailand will have to increase public debt to continue to stimulate economic growth. Borrowing from the future to satisfy economic egos of today is a short-sighted policy.

[RichardColeman]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

The bank now expects the Thai economy to expand up to 3.3 percent, urging the new government to stimulate the domestic economy.

And there you have it, encouraging Thais to go another 3.3% into debt to make the figures up by giving access to more loans (That they'll never pay back)! Better solution would be to increase the road speed limit to 200 MPH, ban brakes and make drunk driving legal in order to stimulate the car and pick up industry

[Cadbury]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Citibank predicts 3.3% Thai economic growth this year

Which group of economists do you believe? Or they all guessing. If I was guessing I would guess 2.9% 

Only the other day the The Economic Intelligence Center, Siam Commercial Bank's research unit, reduced it's forecast for 2019 economic growth to 3.1% down from 3.3%.

The drop in export sales has now been further compounded because of the drop in rice exports due to the baht. 

No matter what the figure ends up being the government will do some massaging to give it the result it wants.

[Isaan sailor]

I predict a contraction in Thai economy.  Exports, tourism don’t stand a chance with an outrageously high Baht.  But BoT keeps high interest rates for hot money bond buying.  What did they expect would happen?

[weegee]

NOPE....It aint gonna Happen.

[greeneking]

9 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

And there you have it, encouraging Thais to go another 3.3% into debt to make the figures up by giving access to more loans (That they'll never pay back)! Better solution would be to increase the road speed limit to 200 MPH, ban brakes and make drunk driving legal in order to stimulate the car and pick up industry

increase country's average IQ and level of responsibility too.

[rickudon]

All economists in Thailand are trained by TAT!

[CNXexpat]

WOW! So many experts here. I am sure all studied economy or something similar and all have the data the banks have. I am impressed.
 

3.3% is really low for a 2nd world country and also compared with Thailand´s neighbours. 

[marcusarelus]

17 minutes ago, rickudon said:

All economists in Thailand are trained by TAT!

The Thai economy is projected to grow by 3.8 percent in 2019 and 3.9 in 2020, according to the World Bank’s Thailand Economic Monitor 

 

Our panel expects the economy to expand 3.4% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2020.

https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/thailand

 

 

[marcusarelus]

22 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

I predict a contraction in Thai economy.  Exports, tourism don’t stand a chance with an outrageously high Baht.  But BoT keeps high interest rates for hot money bond buying.  What did they expect would happen?

No economist predicts anything under 3%.  

[lannarebirth]

3.3% sounds about right. Maybe a little less or a little more depending on the wider global economy.

[marcusarelus]

On 7/15/2019 at 11:57 AM, RichardColeman said:

And there you have it, encouraging Thais to go another 3.3% into debt to make the figures up by giving access to more loans (That they'll never pay back)! Better solution would be to increase the road speed limit to 200 MPH, ban brakes and make drunk driving legal in order to stimulate the car and pick up industry

 

On 7/15/2019 at 11:57 AM, RichardColeman said:

And there you have it, encouraging Thais to go another 3.3% into debt to make the figures up by giving access to more loans (That they'll never pay back)! Better solution would be to increase the road speed limit to 200 MPH, ban brakes and make drunk driving legal in order to stimulate the car and pick up industry

The government would stimulate the local economy by infrastructure projects funded by the government and Thai public debt is only half as much as the UK - 41 to 86%

[rickudon]

Economists make a prediction on growth for the year, and then amend it every month. Very reliable .......  meteorologists could make the same predictions from past data, and then amend it afterwards!