Britain will face some food shortages in a no-deal Brexit: trade body

[Denim]

20 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Britain will face some food shortages in a no-deal Brexit: trade body

 

Yes. As soon as we crash out and plummet of the cliff absolutely all trade to and from the UK will cease 100%. No country in the world will trade with the UK which will be like a leper colony. Nobody will be allowed in or out and gradually 90% of the inhabitants will die a slow lingering death from starvation. 

 

A year down the line scientists wearing thick contamination

suits will land in helicopters from adjacent countries and conduct safety checks. Tumbleweeds will blow down Londons streets and abandoned cars with their doors left open will be found everywhere.  Unchecked fires will burn in the suburbs and packs of wild poodles and chihuahuas will tear to shreds anyone they can corner.

 

Only a handful of survivors will be found on the Isle of Wight and Lundy and they will beg to rejoin Europe.

 

The good news is that immigration will no longer be an issue or a problem.

[SheungWan]

Time to reduce that 28% until it balances what we export to the EU.

Do any Hard Brexiteers understand trade other than nonsense zero-sum junk?

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[worgeordie]

People up in Newcastle will starve if Greggs runs out of pies,sausage rolls and stotties.

regards worgeordie

[CNXexpat]

11 minutes ago, Denim said:

The good news is that immigration will no longer be an issue or a problem.

The UK never had a problem with immigration from Africa, Syria and so on because it´s not in the Schengen contract. The people they immigrate to the UK and make problems are from former colonies and the Commonwealth countries. They will still come. Has nothing to do with the EU. But the workers, nurses, etc. from Poland will leave and they usually make no problems but work hard.

[Forethat]

Just now, CNXexpat said:

Sure, you can buy wine, food, medicine, chemicals, cars and so on from outside the EU. From countries with them you have no trade contracts. So they charge for imports from the UK by example 20% tariffs, the UK charge them 20% too - and who has to pay? Sure, you can make quick trade contracts. Quick means a couple of years what is needed usually. And hey, the strawberries from outside the EU, perhaps from South America are for sure very tasty after the long trip. You are so naive. 

We already bring in fresh produce from South America that are very tasty (I'm sure climate activists will have something to say about bringing in apples from New Zeeland...).

 

The important thing here is trade balance (a concept I'm sure (well...) you're aware of). To put it simple, trade surplus or deficit is what constitutes individual countries justification to continue commerce. The UK trade deficit for 2017 was £130.7 billion. With EU the deficit was £93.7 billion. This means EU have 93.7 billion reasons more than us to make sure commerce continue without friction. 

 

What this means for the consumer (this said with the same type of voice I use when I speak to a child, an idiot or customer service) is that IF we can't transition the single market deal with the EU, yes, tariffs could be placed on goods making german cars 20% more expensive. In this scenario it is likely that buyers will opt for a Japanese or American car. Effectively, this has the potential to damage the german car industry to such extent that Germany is sent into a crisis. Not even Merkel will allow this to happen. So, rest assure there won't be any tariffs. Trust me. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if EU offers a deal or why not an extension to prevent UK from leaving on No Deal terms. Oh, and speaking of naive - why do you think EU offered an extension in the first place...? 

 

 

 

 

[SheungWan]

 
How do you know? Can you provide us with the research you did on supply, demand, and supply chains to validate your assertion please?
 
Or do you just believe the Brexit spin-doctors?

The truth is that the Brexiteers are just neither interested nor have the necessary marbles to deal with any of the economic issues. Nationalism and immigration are what rocks their boat. Anything said about trade etc is just sport.

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[SheungWan]

People up in Newcastle will starve if Greggs runs out of pies,sausage rolls and stotties.
regards worgeordie

Supply shortages pushes up inflation and results in a drop in the standard of living.

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[CNXexpat]

3 minutes ago, Forethat said:

buyers will opt for a Japanese or American car.

They will buy a Japanese or American car instead of a Mercedes, BMW or Porsche?! Perhaps the people they can´t afford it anymore but there will be many they want to have and they are willing to pay for it. Also the buyers of Japanese and American cars have to buy 20% more for all imported cars. So far I know the UK has no trade contract with the USA and Japan. And unfortunately the Japanese car makers want to leave the UK, Ford also think about it, same as BMW with it´s MINI. So the Britons can buy cheap UK made cars from Jaguar, McLaren, Rolls Royce, Bentley and Aston Martin.

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, candide said:

Did you notice that the main problem evoked in the OP was the delay resulting from custom operations in the UK. Imports from outside the EU will be subject to the same problem.

The UK will be responsible for checks on goods from outside the EU, just as we are now. We can do as many or as few checks as we like.

 

In the case of people starving on the streets, gonorrhea outbreaks and all the other ridiculous Project Fear predictions I suspect the checks will be minimal for a few weeks to speed things up. You guys make out it's going to be like the opening scene from the movie 28 Days Later. ????

 

 

 

[evadgib]

26 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

The truth is that the Brexiteers are just neither interested nor have the necessary marbles to deal with any of the economic issues. Nationalism and immigration are what rocks their boat. Anything said about trade etc is just sport.

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'Flicker than us' has worn so thin that I no longer bother with it but who are you to continuously spout such crap in every post and why are you hell bent on failure?

We're leaving whether you like it or not. Any gloating will be in the other direction in due course but I see no reason to unduly rub it in just yet 

[JonnyF]

25 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

The truth is that the Brexiteers are just neither interested nor have the necessary marbles to deal with any of the economic issues. Nationalism and immigration are what rocks their boat. Anything said about trade etc is just sport.

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I was listening to a podcast the other day in which the interviewee stated that anyone claiming Brexit was all about immigration is almost certainly a Remainer.

 

How right he was. Much easier to portray Leavers as racist bigots than to actually accept that there is something wrong with the EU model.

[soalbundy]

21 hours ago, GreasyFingers said:

If the Brits are anything like the the Aussies the diet will help them look better.

No, all the healthy food will be in short supply so it will be stodge for breakfast dinner and tea, the obesity rates will be even higher.

[soalbundy]

7 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

I was listening to a podcast the other day in which the interviewee stated that anyone claiming Brexit was all about immigration is almost certainly a Remainer.

 

How right he was. Much easier to portray Leavers as racist bigots than to actually accept that there is something wrong with the EU model.

There is something wrong with every system especially with something new like the EU but I can remember living in the UK before the EU, it wasn't nice.

[Forethat]

3 minutes ago, CNXexpat said:

They will buy a Japanese or American car instead of a Mercedes, BMW or Porsche?! Perhaps the people they can´t afford it anymore but there will be many they want to have and they are willing to pay for it. Also the buyers of Japanese and American cars have to buy 20% more for all imported cars. So far I know the UK has no trade contract with the USA and Japan. And unfortunately the Japanese car makers want to leave the UK, Ford also think about it, same as BMW with it´s MINI. So the Britons can buy cheap UK made cars from Jaguar, McLaren, Rolls Royce, Bentley and Aston Martin.

You're missing my point. EVERY country will want to resume commerce on existing deals. The only loser here will be the country stubborn enough to believe they can teach UK a lesson for declaring independence. Ironically, when the Americans held the stamp act congress it was because they were refused to govern themselves, this was refused by the English who decided to teach the rebelling colony a lesson! Unfortunately for the English, they got spanked. And now history repeats itself; the English rebell against being governed by EU and EU have decided to teach the UK a lesson.

 

The difference is that EUs arsenal is somewhat restricted as they can't send in soldiers and shoot people (like the English did in 1775). In addition, the EU must compete with market rules just like any other country. If you don't want to sell, don't get a trade deal in place. Simples. The Japanese want to sell. So do the Americans. Look forward to a trade deal.

 

PS.

Yes, Japanese car manufacturers are moving out of the UK. And Germany. And France. And every other EU country. This is part of the Japanese car manufacturing strategy to move all EU market production to Japan before 2021. 

 

 

[soalbundy]

2 minutes ago, Forethat said:

You're missing my point. EVERY country will want to resume commerce on existing deals. The only loser here will be the country stubborn enough to believe they can teach UK a lesson for declaring independence. Ironically, when the Americans held the stamp act congress it was because they were refused to govern themselves, this was refused by the English who decided to teach the rebelling colony a lesson! Unfortunately for the English, they got spanked. And now history repeats itself; the English rebell against being governed by EU and EU have decided to teach the UK a lesson.

 

The difference is that EUs arsenal is somewhat restricted as they can't send in soldiers and shoot people (like the English did in 1775). In addition, the EU must compete with market rules just like any other country. If you don't want to sell, don't get a trade deal in place. Simples. The Japanese want to sell. So do the Americans. Look forward to a trade deal.

 

PS.

Yes, Japanese car manufacturers are moving out of the UK. And Germany. And France. And every other EU country. This is part of the Japanese car manufacturing strategy to move all EU market production to Japan before 2021. 

 

 

Rolls Royce and Bentley are German owned (BMW and VW respectively) Jaguar is Indian owned, there is no British car industry, the British will have to buy what is on the market regardless of cost or go bike riding.

[vogie]

5 minutes ago, Victornoir said:

Of course all countries in the world will want to sell their food to the UK.
But how long will they accept to be paid in Pound ?

I am sure you can get treatment for sour grapes these days, you might want to let some of your peers know too.

[Jip99]

1 hour ago, from the home of CC said:

don't forget the logs for the fire, supposed to be the coldest winter in 49 years...

 

 

Don't worry....... just burn £5 notes........  remainers tell us they will be worthless after 31 October....????

[brokenbone]

like someone said, not food shortage but food choice shortage.
for any brit struggling with currency exchange already in thailand,
get out if you can

[SheungWan]

like someone said, not food shortage but food choice shortage.
for any brit struggling with currency exchange already in thailand,
get out if you can

Adjusting cost of living is probably less critical than the monies required to renew a visa extension permission to stay, particularly those following the income route.

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[Forethat]

54 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

The truth is that the Brexiteers are just neither interested nor have the necessary marbles to deal with any of the economic issues. Nationalism and immigration are what rocks their boat. Anything said about trade etc is just sport.
 

I AM dealing with the economic issues. Specifically with the trade.

[SheungWan]

 
 
Don't worry....... just burn £5 notes........  remainers tell us they will be worthless after 31 October....[emoji23]

Inflation will reduce them at home and the exchange rate will do likewise abroad. 'Burning' is the wrong word: 'shrinking' better.

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[SheungWan]

Of course all countries in the world will want to sell their food to the UK.
But how long will they accept to be paid in Pound ?

Probably priced in Dollars. The Sterling problem with the importer.

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[SheungWan]

I was listening to a podcast the other day in which the interviewee stated that anyone claiming Brexit was all about immigration is almost certainly a Remainer.
 
How right he was. Much easier to portray Leavers as racist bigots than to actually accept that there is something wrong with the EU model.

The podcast expert.

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[SheungWan]

'Flicker than us' has worn so thin that I no longer bother with it but who are you to continuously spout such crap in every post and why are you hell bent on failure?
We're leaving whether you like it or not. Any gloating will be in the other direction in due course but I see no reason to unduly rub it in just yet 

I'll bear it in mind while buying cheap Sterling.

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[bannork]

Still, there may be plenty of chance to eat beef.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49272343

[JonnyF]

27 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

The podcast expert.

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Yes, much easier to deride the source of the information than to address the point being made. Nice deflection.

[Forethat]

1 hour ago, candide said:

In case of 'no deal', as mentioned before, the 'friction' problem will be located in the UK, not in the EU. Due to custom procedures, the friction will happen in the importing country.

The 'friction' I am talking about is far more complex than French lorries in a holding pen. The 'friction' I refer to is the financial crisis ultimately caused by disrupting trade. People tend to believe that UK is the only victim in case that happens, when in fact, given our trade deficit, we are likely to be the least victim. France and Germany, on the other hand, are at serious risk. Why do you think France and Germany are so afraid of seeing UK leave the EU? 

 

Trust me, logistical issues are being addressed as we speak - we got this! 

[CNXexpat]

1 hour ago, Forethat said:

EU have decided to teach the UK a lesson.

That´s what the Brits think. But no one wants to teach the UK a lesson. There are contracts. The UK wants to leave but also demands for a lot. They don´t want to pay for the EU, they don´t want to follow the EU rules, what´s absolutely ok. But then they can´t demand. So easy.

 

1 hour ago, Forethat said:

The Japanese want to sell. So do the Americans. Look forward to a trade deal.

Sure they want, but do you know how much time it needs to make a trade deal? Years. And ALL politicians in the US say "no backstop, no trade deal". Btw., what do you think how good a trade deal between the little UK and the big USA with Mr. America First will be for the UK? The same with Japan. Especially if everybody knows that the UK really needs a trade deal. It´s the same with the EU. The UK is in a bad position to demand something and hope for a good deal (for the UK). 

 

[Handsome Gardener]

7 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

The main difference between the two is that everyone was on the same side preparing for the "millennium bug" whereas with Brexit we have the EU trying to screw us over and Remainers hoping we fail so they can say I told You So. However, it is the Leavers with the courage and conviction to make this work despite all the negativity, scheming and fearmongering of Remainers. 

Sticking an 'X' in a box without the faintest idea of the consequences (unless you're going to enlighten us now) doesn't involve an ounce of courage or conviction so you need to stop bigging yourself up. It involves blind faith based on nothing and a willingness to risk the 5th largest economy in the world to rid the UK of some foreigners!

 

Has anyone answered my question yet as to why the pound isn't flying given how wonderful Brexit is going to be ?

[Handsome Gardener]

1 hour ago, Forethat said:

you're missing my point. EVERY country will want to resume commerce on existing deals. 

 

 

and you're missing basic economics - they cannot resume on existing deals as they were negotiated from within the EU with the power of the EU budget behind them - the UK is a much smaller player and will be unlikely to offer the same terms. That's the benefit of being in a wealthier club!

 

If there is a choice between dealing with the EU and the UK then the EU with its 6 times bigger GDP, which enables it to offer deeper discounts and concessions, will win out more often than it loses. Scale means success in business. Its basic stuff which brexiteers just can't comprehend. 

 

Then there the logistics of getting stuff in and out of the UK which currently isn't a problem but will become one - some companies may work on that, others will just think stuff it as several have threatened to do, especially those with 'just in time' requirements.

 

If the UK can offer something that is not produced elsewhere fine, but right now apart from clotted cream, I can't think of anything !